Thanksgiving and Black Friday games are in the books and now it's officially time for the home stretch of the regular season.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 13 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Friday, Nov. 29, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Bo Chalk
Nix's Historic Start
Bo Nix has only closed as a favorite five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year.
Jayden Daniels started 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite earlier this season. Caleb Williams also started 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite, too. Bo Nix would be the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
Even Steven
Home, Road Exactly .500 SU
Where has home field advantage gone? Entering the Thursday Thanksgiving slates, home teams were 77-93-4 ATS this season, but just as important is they are an even 87-87 SU this season.
Rare Favorite
Bengals Favored Over Steelers
Bengals are 4-7 SU this season – a 36.4% win pct – and are listed as the favorite against the 8-3 SU (72.7%) Steelers.
This is just the 5th time in the Wild Card era (since 1990) a team with a win pct of 37% or less, is listed as a favorite vs. a team with a win pct of 72% or more in December or later and the first time since 2017.
The team listed as the favorite is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by almost 2 TDs per game, winning by just under 20 PPG.
Clinching Time
A Playoff History
The Bills can clinch the division this week with a win and a Dolphins loss. They would be the first NFL team to clinch the division title with 5 weeks to play since the Colts in 2009.
Lions and Chiefs can also possibly clinch a non-division playoff berth this week. They would be the first duo to clinch a non-division playoff berth with 5 weeks to play since the Vikings and Broncos in 1998.
Keep It Tight
Ravens With Small Spreads
Lamar Jackson is 26-6 ATS in the regular season when he is either listed as an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less. That is the best mark for any QB last 20 years. When Lamar is at home in that spot, he is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS, covering the spread by 15.2 PPG.
Nick Sirianni has never faced Lamar Jackson prior to this week. In Lamar Jackson’s 95 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 44 times – he is 37-7 SU (84%).
QBs Matter
Kyle Shanahan with 49ers
In his career as head coach of the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan is 77-61 SU (55.8%). With either Brock Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo as his QB, he is 68-30 SU (69.4%), with all other QBs he is 9-31 SU (22.5%), including 3-19 SU (13.6%) either on the road or a neutral site.
With Josh Allen, the Bills are 68-43-3 against the second-half spread. In the last 20 years, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second-half spread behind only Alex Smith. In 2024, he’s 9-2 2H ATS, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Every NFL Game For Week 13
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Winning streak or letdown? A closer look at Tennessee's struggles
➤The Titans are looking for something called a winning streak. Since the start of last year, Tennessee is 0-7 against the spread the week after a SU win (0-8 ATS last 8 games). They are the only team in the NFL without a cover after a SU win in that span – every other NFL team has at least two covers in that spot. Ryan Tannehill is the last QB to cover after a SU win for the Titans.
Does Tennessee have a chance to turn it around?
➤This season, the Titans are now 2-9 ATS after the win last week. Don’t just assume Tennessee is going to regress back. Since 2003, teams with a 20% ATS win pct or less, coming off a cover in their last game are 23-20 ATS, covering by 2.3 PPG, including 8-7 ATS over the last decade.
Breaking the mold: Titans after a road win
➤Most would assume a letdown from the Titans side. Since 2018, teams off a SU win as a road dog vs. divisional opponent the week before are actually 68-44-4 ATS (61%) in their next game.
Will Levis rising? Second half success
➤In consecutive games, Will Levis has posted 10+ pts in the second half, covering the 2H spread in both games. Levis has two 2H ATS covers the last two weeks. He was 2-13 2H ATS entering that stretch.
Tennessee is now 8-26-1 against the second half spread over the last two calendar years.
Commanders struggle after a bad loss
➤The Commanders are off a terrible loss as a 10+ pt favorite against the Cowboys last week. Over the last decade, teams off a SU loss as a favorite of 7 pts or more are 76-52-3 ATS (59%) in their next game, including 8-2 ATS this season.
Jayden Daniels: Regression or simply tough competition?
➤Jayden Daniels has seen some form of regression in his rookie year.
Weeks 1-9: 1st in EPA/play, 7th in success rate, 3rd in CPOE
Weeks 10-12: 26th in EPA/play, 23rd in success rate, 28th in CPOE
Facing the Eagles and Steelers two of the last three weeks doesn’t help, they are 5th and 6th in EPA/play on defense this season and top-10 in dropback EPA on defense.
Another angle of the Commanders dropoff is their offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury. Here is a history of his 2nd half collapses in his last few stops. At Texas Tech, the Cardinals and USC, he is 18-47 SU and 27-36-2 ATS in November on.
2023 USC: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS in Oct. on | 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS in Nov. on.
2019-22 Cardinals: 10-25 SU, 13-20-2 ATS in Nov. on.
2013-18 Texas Tech: 17-33 SU, 22-27-1 ATS in Oct. on | 7-19 SU, 12-14 ATS in Nov. on.
Jayden Daniels' performance against strong opponents
➤This season, Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 6-1 SU/ATS vs. teams below .500 SU – with his only loss coming last week vs. Cowboys.
Fourth quarter woes: Commanders struggle to finish strong
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 8-3-1
2Q ATS: 7-5
3Q ATS: 8-4
4Q ATS: 2-10
Chargers' bounce-back potential after loss to Ravens
➤Chargers lost last week against the Ravens. As an NFL head coach, Harbaugh’s teams are 14-8 SU and 12-8-2 ATS after a SU loss.
This year, Chargers are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS, with their only loss coming to the Chiefs.
Since 2021, Justin Herbert has played five road games in EST off a loss, Chargers are 4-1 SU in those games.
Is this a different Chargers team?
➤Is this a different Chargers team? Justin Herbert has played 11 road games in his career where his defense allowed 30+ pts in their previous game. He is 3-8 SU in those starts, but none came with this defense this year and Jim Harbaugh.
Chargers' challenge on short rest
➤Chargers are on short rest this week after the MNF loss. Harbaugh and L.A. have played on short rest once already this season, a 26-8 home win/cover vs. Saints.
As an NFL head coach, Harbaugh is 7-4 SU on short rest, while Herbert is 4-6 SU and entered this year just 3-6 SU in that spot.
Home team advantage after a bye
➤This week we have a team playing at home on a bye vs. a team on the road who is on short rest. Those teams are 205-117-1 SU (64%) since 2003, winning by 3.5 PPG and since 2020, those teams are 42-19 SU at home.
Herbert's struggles against the second-half spread
➤Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career.
Herbert is 22-47-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. He’s 11-31-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,108 — third-worst in NFL since 2005).
Falcons' performance after a bye
➤Falcons are off a bye this week before facing the Chargers. In his career, Cousins is 14-18 SU and 12-20 ATS on extended rest. His 12-20 ATS mark is 228th of 230 QBs last 20 years, ahead of just Tony Romo and Philip Rivers.
Kirk Cousins' performance in the 1p ET window
➤In the 1p ET window on Sunday’s, Kirk Cousins is a different QB.
1p ET or earlier: 61-35-1 SU (64%)
After 1p ET: 22-40 SU (36%)
Falcons' sack drought: A key to their struggles
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through 11 games, Grady Jarrett and Matthew Judon lead Atlanta with 2.5 sacks each. On the season, the Falcons have just 10 sacks in 11 games. Since 2000, only one team has had fewer sacks through 11 games than the 2024 Falcons – 2008 Chiefs, with six.
No team with 10 sacks or less through 11 games has ever made the playoffs.
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Bengals favored despite struggling record
➤Bengals are 4-7 SU this season – a 36.4% win pct – and are listed as the favorite against the 8-3 SU (72.7%) Steelers.
This is just the 5th time in the Wild Card era (since 1990) a team with a win pct of 37% or less, is listed as a favorite vs. a team with a win pct of 72% or more in December or later and the first time since 2017.
The team listed as the favorite is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by almost 2 TDs per game, winning by just under 20 PPG.
Steelers as underdogs: A proven winner
➤Steelers are underdogs again. This season, they are 4-0 SU/ATS when listed as an underdog. In the regular season, the Steelers have won six straight games as underdogs, losing to the Bills in the playoffs last year.
Teams To Start 5-0 SU as Underdogs Last 20 Years
2022 Giants
2021 Titans
2021 Cardinals
2009 Bengals
2007 Packers
Tomlin's strong underdog record vs. divisional opponents
➤When Tomlin is listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent, the Steelers are 21-15 SU, 25-9-2 ATS. Tomlin hasn’t finished a season under .500 ATS in this spot since 2014 and is 1-0 ATS in 2024 so far.
AFC North underdogs: Consistently profitable
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They're 49-31 ATS (61%) since 2018, best of any division, they're .500 ATS or better in 7 straight seasons and they are 27-16 ATS since 2021.
Russell Wilson: Strong underdog performance with elite defense
➤Steelers have a great defense this year and that bodes well for an underdog team led by Russell Wilson.
Russ is 26-9-1 ATS in career when listed as an underdog behind a defense allowing 20 PPG or less, that is the best mark for any QB since 2003.
Joe Burrow's success after a bye week
➤Joe Burrow has been very effective off bye weeks. In his career, he is 4-2 SU/ATS, he’s scored 30+ pts in three straight games off a full week bye, averaging 26.2 PPG in his career.
Burrow has won and covered four in a row off a bye during the regular season.
Burrow's December dominance vs. Tomlin's struggles
➤Welcome to December. In his career, Joe Burrow is 13-4 SU in December or later, while Mike Tomlin’s Steelers teams are just 18-19 SU since 2018.
Burrow's strong second-half spread performance
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 43-26-1 (62%) against the second-half spread. He's 9-12 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
Against the Steelers, Burrow is 4-1 2H ATS, covering four in a row against Pittsburgh.
Colts-Patriots rivalry: A streaky history
➤The Colts-Patriots rivalry has been a wild, streaky series.
2021-24: Colts 2-1 SU
2010-20: Patriots 8-0 SU
2005-09: Colts 5-1 SU
1996-2004: Patriots 14-2 SU
This will be the first time the Colts are favored in New England since 2005 – a 40-21 Colts win, Manning vs. Brady.
Colts' struggles after facing the Lions
➤Colts lost to the Lions last week at home. Teams after facing the Lions are 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 11.6 PPG and 15-27 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
Anthony Richardson's bounce-back record
➤Last week, the Lions manhandled the Colts, winning 24-6 in Indy. In Anthony Richardson’s short career, he is 4-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in his previous game, covering the spread by 7.4 PPG after that failed cover.
Shane Steichen’s close games record
➤The Colts have played 19 one-score games under Shane Steichen, and they're 11-8 SU and 14-5 ATS.
Colts' unusual stat: Scoring 6 points and no turnovers
➤Good thing: Colts didn’t turn the ball over last week. Bad thing: they scored on 6 pts and lost at home to the Lions.
Since 2016, teams to score 7 pts or less and not turnover the ball, are just 10-21 SU and 12-18-1 ATS in their next game, including 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS on the road.
Patriots' struggles at home vs. non-AFC East teams
➤Patriots play at home vs. a team outside the AFC East for the 4th time this season, they are 0-3 SU in those games.
Over the last 2 seasons, New England is 0-8 SU and 0-6-2 ATS at home vs. teams outside the AFC East, failing to cover the spread by 7.6 PPG.
Drake Maye's split performance: First half vs. second half
➤Drake Maye has made seven starts in the NFL. He is 1-6 against the first half spread, worst mark for any QB in the NFL this season.
In the second half, Maye is 5-2 ATS this year, covering five games in a row in the 2H.
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Texans' dominance in Jacksonville
➤The Texans have dominated their recent trips to Jacksonville, winning their last five trips outright, going 4-1 ATS in those games. Since 2011, Houston is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road vs. Jaguars, covering the spread by 6.3 PPG.
Texans' strong first half performance
➤No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 10-2 against the first half spread, best mark of any team in the NFL.
As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 22-9 1H ATS, including 22-7 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 4th-best of any QB of 262 QBs over the last 20 years.
Houston is also 2-10 against the second half spread, worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Stroud's career split: Underdog vs. favorite
➤Stroud has made 29 career starts in the NFL. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 6-11 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
Stroud's EPA/play and team success
➤Stroud’s EPA/play is ranked 25th of 39 QBs with at least 100 plays this season. Of the 15 QBs behind him in EPA/play, none are above .500 SU this year and they are a combined 27-70 SU.
Jaguars' performance after a bye
➤Jaguars are off a bye to face the Texans at home this week.
In the regular season, Doug Pederson is just 2-5 SU/ATS on a full week bye, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 PPG. In the Wild Card era, teams on a 4+ game SU losing streak entering the bye are 33-56 SU, but 52-36-2 ATS after the time off.
Doug Pederson's success as an underdog
➤No matter the situation, Doug Pederson has been a good bet as an underdog. He is 16-11 ATS with the Jaguars and was 21-17 ATS with the Eagles.
As a home underdog, Pederson is 17-7 ATS as a head coach, the 3rd-best mark of 154 head coaches since 2003.
Arizona's struggles in Minnesota
➤Minnesota has been a house of horrors for Arizona. Since 1980, Arizona is 0-10 SU and 2-7-1 ATS on the road against the Vikings. Six of those ten games have come since 2010.
Kyler Murray's record against winning teams
➤Kyler Murray has started 29 games in his career where his team is above .500 SU, Arizona is 12-17 ATS in those games. When that game is played in November or later, they are 4-13 ATS.
Kyler's bounce-back ability after tough losses
➤Cardinals lost 16-6 last week against the Seahawks and weren’t able to muster much offense. In Kyler’s career, he is 9-4 ATS the game after scoring 14 pts or less, including 2-1 SU/ATS in 2024.
Last 15 years, teams above .500 SU who failed to score a TD in their previous game and are on normal rest (7 days or less) are 55-40 SU and 53-38-4 ATS (58%) in their next game.
Kyler's road under performance
➤Kyler road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 24-12-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked third of 275 QBs since 2005 in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite. 22-18 to the over in his career.
Kyler's success as an underdog
➤Kyler is not a QB you usually want to fade as an underdog. He is 30-17-2 ATS as a dog in his career, and 11-17 ATS as a favorite.
As a road dog, Kyler is 19-7-2 ATS – that is the 5th-best mark of 274 QBs since 2003.
Vikings defense under Flores: A dominant force
➤The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year, ranking first in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, 4th EPA/dropback and first EPA/rush.
In one fewer game played, the Vikings still have 8 more QB pressures than any other team, with the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL and the highest blitz percentage.
Good defensive teams (allowing under 20 PPG) who allowed 27 pts or more in their previous game in November or later are 30 games over .500 ATS over the last 20 years for a +7% ROI.
Sam Darnold's incredible 2024 turnaround
➤What an amazing turnaround for Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season:
21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog this year.
Against teams above .500 SU, Darnold entered 8-15 SU, he is 3-1 SU this season with Minnesota.
Darnold's performance as a favorite
➤In his NFL career, Darnold has closed as a FG favorite or higher eight times, his teams are 7-5 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 5 PPG.
Impact of overtime games on the Vikings
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Vikings are coming off an OT game last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 109-143 SU (43%) and 110-139-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
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Geno Smith's return to New York
➤The return of Geno Smith. This is the 2nd time Geno will play on the road in New York since being the QB of the Jets and Giants in his career.
Last year, Seattle faced the Giants in NY and won 24-3 as a 2.5-pt road favorite.
Seattle's momentum: Too high of expectations for Geno?
➤Seattle is getting some market momentum after opening as underdogs in this game. In Geno’s career, he is 6-0 SU as a road favorite of above a one-pt favorite.
Are expectations too high? Geno has come off a SU win to play on the road, he is 6-9-4 ATS in those games, failing to cover by 3.1 PPG.
Jets after a bye: Rodgers' history off rest
➤The Jets are off a bye week after starting the season 3-8 SU.
Aaron Rodgers in his career, all with the Packers, is 13-7 SU and 13-6-1 ATS off a bye week as a starter, including 9-5 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in the regular season.
Since 2011, teams with a win pct of 30% or less coming off a bye are just 30-54 SU and 39-46 ATS, including 10-30 SU, 14-26 ATS when that game is at home – works for the Jets and Jaguars this week.
Jets' coaching struggles under Jeff Ulbrich
➤Jeff Ulbrich has begun his Jets stint 1-5 ATS. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
Aaron Rodgers' declining passing stats
➤Rodgers owns the 6th-worst completion percentage above expected and the 6th-lowest average depth of target for any qualified QBs this year.
Here are Rodgers' CPOE and aDOT in his last five seasons:
2024: -1.9 and 6.7
2022: 0.5 and 8.2
2021: 5.8 and 7.8
2020: 7.2 and 8.0
2019: 0.7 and 8.9
Rodgers' struggles in first-half spreads
➤Over the last three seasons, Aaron Rodgers is 10-18-1 against the first half spread. Of 95 total QBs, Rodgers ranks 94th in 1H ATS, ahead of just Kyler Murray.
Rodgers vs. teams above .500 SU
➤This is the 6th game Rodgers will play this season against a team over .500 SU. The Jets are 1-4 SU/ATS in those games, with their lone win coming against the Texans.
Rodgers has finished 3+ games below .500 ATS vs. above .500 SU teams once in his career – back in 2017 when he went 0-3 ATS.
Long road trips and the Chargers' situation
➤Seattle travels across the country to face the Jets this week after winning at home vs. Cardinals last week. The Chargers are also in a similar situation this week.
Here are two systems that point towards Seattle and L.A. this week.
Baker Mayfield's role as underdog vs. favorite
➤Like a few QBs across the league, Baker Mayfield tends to play his role. He’s 31-25 ATS as an underdog and 17-27-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.
When Baker faces a divisional opponent, he’s 9-8 ATS as a dog and 5-12 ATS as a favorite. Baker is 2-10 ATS in his last 12 divisional games as a favorite, winning his last two, including 1-0 ATS this season.
His Baker’s first start in 2018, he’s the 2nd-least profitable QB ATS as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent, ahead of just Russell Wilson.
Baker's road vs. home ATS performance
➤On the road though, Baker has been a very different QB ATS than he has been at home.
Since the start of last season, Baker is 12-3 ATS on the road, all with the Bucs, covering the spread by 6.9 PPG (he’s 15-0 in a 6-pt teaser). In Baker’s three losses ATS on the road, he still scored 20+ pts.
Historically for Baker, he’s 19-28-1 ATS at home in his career, which ranks 123rd of 125 QBs since he was drafted.
Baker's success against the Panthers
➤Baker Mayfield has faced all 32 teams in the NFL in his career. He’s only 3-0 SU or better against one team: Carolina Panthers.
Baker has won all three games by 9 pts or less, going 2-1 ATS, while Carolina has scored 20 pts or less against Mayfield's teams in all three games.
Panthers' high-scoring first halves
➤The Panthers give up a lot of points, especially in the first half. This season, Panther games are 10-1 to the first half over, going over the 1H total by 6.2 PPG.
No team has finished with 3 1H over losses or fewer in a full regular season since the Cowboys (13-3) in 2020, while the Bucs in 2019 went 14-2 to the 1H over – which is the golden standard in terms of 1H overs over the last 20 years.
Panthers' underdog streak continues
➤This will be the Panthers' 32nd consecutive game as underdogs, including being an underdog in 41 of their last 42 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT).
They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Oct. 1, 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
As of now, the Panthers are 11 games away from trying the modern record for consecutive games as an underdog with the 2007-10 Rams, who did so in 43 straight games.
Bryce Young's first-half struggles
➤Bryce Young may just be 7-15 against the first half spread in his career, but over the last three games, he has scored 9, 10 and 10 pts in the first two quarters. Prior to that stretch, Panthers were averaging 3.2 PPG in the first half in his previous 11 starts.
In two starts vs. Bucs, Bryce has scored a total of 3 pts in the first half.
Panthers' ATS win streak on the line
➤Entering this game, the Panthers have covered the full game spread in three straight games. Since 2013, teams with a win pct below 30% on a 3+ game ATS win streak are just 11-20 SU and 11-18-1 ATS.
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Rams' return to New Orleans: Revisiting the 2019 playoff controversy
➤In the 2019 playoffs, the Rams famously got away with a pass interference call at the end of the game in New Orleans that sent them to the Super Bowl.
The Rams returned to NO in 2022 and lost 27-20, failing to cover the spread. This is their second trip back since that playoff game.
ATS trend for teams after big losses and wins
➤Teams to lose by 17+ pts vs. team who won by 17+ pts the previous week — 114-79 ATS, 59% last 20 years. Rams are the only match this week.
Saints off a bye: Derek Carr’s struggles
➤Saints are off a bye week entering this home game against the Rams.
Derek Carr is just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS coming off a full bye in his career, going 1-6 SU/ATS off a full bye since 2017, the worst QB ATS in the NFL of 81 QBs in that span.
Derek Carr’s struggles vs. high-scoring defenses
➤Carr has struggled in his career facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season – he's 37-60-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more.
Of the 269 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot. He’s finished above .500 ATS once in his 11-year career.
When he faces a defense allowing fewer than 21 PPG, he’s 35-22 ATS – 5th-most profitable QB. Brady, Brees, Peyton, Josh Allen, Derek Carr.
Carr vs. McVay: A poor ATS record
➤Carr has faced Sean McVay three times in his NFL career and he is 0-3 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 8.3 PPG. Of the 68 head coaches Carr has faced, he’s not 0-4 ATS or worse against any of them. Carr is averaging just 17 PPG vs. McVay’s teams.
McVay’s success on short rest
➤Sean McVay is one of the best coaches in the NFL on short rest. Now this game vs. Saints isn’t technically on short rest, McVay has coached 21 games where his team is coming off a night game and then they play on the road, they are 15-6 SU in those games.
McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 27-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 6-15 SU as underdogs.
McVay's record as a road favorite
➤If it closes there, McVay is 22-4 SU as a road favorite of 3 pts or more in his career with the Rams, including 15-1 SU when the team he faces is below .500 SU.
Stafford’s struggles against the second-half spread
➤Stafford is 12-23-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Justin Herbert.
Stafford hasn’t finished a season above .500 2H ATS since 2017, which was the only year he has done so dating back to 2011.
Ravens' resilience: Comeback wins and trailing by 10+
➤Last week the Chargers led 10-0 & the Ravens ended up winning 30-23. Baltimore is 4-1 SU this season when trailing by 10+ pts at any point — the rest of the NFL is 18-130 SU (12%) entering Week 13. Ravens have won four straight when trailing by 10+ pts.
Lamar Jackson's performance on short rest
➤Ravens are on short rest this week coming off a road win on MNF against the Chargers.
Lamar entered 2024, 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS on short rest in his career, but he is 0-2 ATS this season – the good news? He has scored 79 pts in those two games. The bad news? His defense has allowed 74 pts in those games, too.
Lamar has played nine home games on short rest in his pro career, he is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in those games. That is the most SU wins at home on short rest without a loss for any QB over the last 20 years.
John Harbaugh at home on short rest is 23-4 SU in his career when either Lamar or Joe Flacco starts for him in Baltimore (0-1 SU with Tyler Huntley).
Lamar Jackson's dominance as a small favorite or underdog
➤In his career as a starter, Lamar Jackson is 26-6 ATS in the regular season when he is either listed as an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less. That is the best mark for any QB last 20 years.
When Lamar is at home in that spot, he is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS, covering the spread by 15.2 PPG.
Lamar Jackson's success against first-time coaches
➤Nick Sirianni has never faced Lamar Jackson prior to this week. In Lamar Jackson’s 95 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 44 times – he is 37-7 SU (84%), 24-20 ATS in those games. In a coach's first two games vs. Lamar, Jackson is 52-16 SU, 36-31-1 ATS. In a coach's 3rd game or later, Lamar is just 16-11 SU and 15-12 ATS.
Lamar Jackson's first half spread dominance
➤Lamar Jackson is 56-35-2 against the first half spread in his career, making him the best quarterback against the spread in the first in the last 20 years (262 QBs).
Where Jackson really does his damage is away from home. He's 31-13-1 against the first half spread in his career road/neutral but just 25-22-1 1H ATS at home.
A.J. Brown’s impact on Eagles' success
➤Eagles are 8-0 SU this season when A.J. Brown plays.
Here is Philly's points in those 8 games:
34, 20, 28, 37, 28, 34, 26, 37
Eagles are 35-10 SU with Brown active and 1-3 SU without him.
Jalen Hurts' recent hot streak
➤Lately we’ve seen a great Jalen Hurts. In his last six games, the Eagles are 7-0 SU. Since Week 6, he's 4th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate, and he's 2nd in CPOE with 18 total TDs and one INTs.
Hurts is tied for the most rush TD in the NFL since Week 6 with 9.
Jalen Hurts' road under performance
➤Road unders with Jalen Hurts have been the way in his career. Hurts is 21-13 to the under on the road in his career, including 11-5 since the start of last season. That's the 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL and the 3rd-best mark since he was drafted.
Eagles' underdog success in 2024
➤The Eagles aren’t underdogs much, but in 2024 they’ve been a lot better than they had been prior to that.
In 2024, the Eagles are 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog, winning both games on the road, with their opponent scoring a total of 29 pts in both games.
In Hurts’ career as a starter, he is 38-12 SU as a favorite and 6-10 SU as an underdog. 2024 is the first time in his career he has won consecutive starts outright as an underdog (entered 4-10 SU).
Eagles' streak vs. history of underdog success
➤Eagles have won 7 consecutive games SU entering this matchup against the Ravens.
Earlier this season, the Chiefs were in the same spot as Philly, winning 7+ straight games and listed as a dog, they lost to the Bills 30-21.
Since 2010, teams on a 7+ game SU win streak, who are listed as underdogs are 8-22 SU and 10-20 ATS, losing those games by 7 PPG.
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Purdy's first time as an underdog
➤Brock Purdy wasn’t able to start last week vs. Packers with a shoulder injury. A game where the 49ers were listed as underdogs in the regular season for the first time since Oct. 30, 2022 – a streak of 36 consecutive regular season games as a favorite, the third-longest such streak of the Super Bowl era, behind only the 1999-2002 Rams (50) and the 2016-20 Patriots (64).
Purdy has made 37 career starts entering this week. He’s only been listed as an underdog once, against the 49ers in the 2022-23 playoffs where he got hurt and Philly won 31-7.
Purdy has gone his first 31 career regular season starts as a favorite, with that streak now breaking this week vs. Bills if he starts.
49ers' second half struggles
➤The 49ers are having a 2nd half issue. They are 2-9 against the second half spread this year, losing 9 of their last 10 second halves ATS.
In Brock Purdy’s first two seasons in the NFL, he was 17-10 against the 2H spread. In his career, the issue has mainly been on the road, where he is 6-11 2H ATS, losing his last five 2Hs ATS.
49ers' tough loss to the Ravens
➤It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 8-9 SU in their last 17 total games.
Shanahan's success with Purdy or Garoppolo
➤In his career as head coach of the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan is 77-61 SU (55.8%). With either Brock Purdy or Jimmy Garoppolo as his QB, he is 68-30 SU (69.4%), with all other QBs he is 9-31 SU (22.5%), including 3-19 SU (13.6%) either on the road or a neutral site.
49ers' success in night games under Shanahan
➤Night games haven’t been a terrible spot for Shanahan and the 49ers. This season, the 49ers are 3-0 SU/ATS in night games – the only team 2-0 SU/ATS or better in the NFL.
When SF is listed as an underdog in night games under Shanahan, they are 7-2 ATS. When the game is played in under 40°, they are 3-0 ATS as dogs in night games under Kyle.
Bills' performance off a bye week
➤The Bills are coming off a full bye week to face the 49ers at home on SNF. On extra rest during the season in his career, Josh Allen is just 10-13-1 ATS, but he has covered three in a row including Buffalo’s playoff game against the Steelers last year.
Allen is 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS when on a full bye week in his career, averaging 27.1 PPG in those seven starts. Over the last 20 years, no other QB is even 6-0 SU or better in this spot.
Josh Allen's primetime success
➤We’ve seen way too much of New York teams in night games lately, especially with the fact that they are 5-33 SU since 2019. The other NY team, or the only actual one who plays in NY is 20-11 SU in night primetime games since 2019 – which is also the career record for Buffalo QB Josh Allen.
Bills' second-half dominance under Allen
➤The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 68-43-3 against the second-half spread.
In the last 20 years, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second-half spread behind only Alex Smith. In 2024, he’s 9-2 2H ATS, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Josh Allen's record as a home favorite
➤Allen has played 30 total home games in his career where he has been a favorite of 6 pts or more. Allen is 26-4 SU in those games, but only 13-15-2 ATS. 17 of those 30 games for Allen had Buffalo win by 10 pts or more, with 12 of those 30 games decided by one-score.
As a favorite of 6 or more at home in night games, Allen is 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS.
Bo Nix's MNF debut: Rookie QBs on Monday Night
➤We have a rookie in Bo Nix making his MNF debut this week at home against the Browns.
Rookie QBs on MNF aren’t as bad as one might think. They are 23-32-1 SU since the merger and in 2024 they are 1-0 SU/ATS with Jayden Daniels beating the Bengals earlier this season. Since the start of 2022, these QBs are 4-1 SU on MNF.
Sean Payton's struggles in night games
➤Sean Payton has coached his share of night games in his NFL career with the Broncos and Saints, but ATS, especially recently hasn’t been a friendly atmosphere.
Since 2020, with both Denver and New Orleans, he is 4-12 ATS in night games, the least profitable ATS of 58 head coaches in that span. One of those wins came with Bo Nix, who beat the Saints on the road earlier this year.
Overall, Payton is 18-9 SU and 12-15 ATS in his coaching career on MNF. Over the last decade, he is 4-10 ATS on MNF.
Bo Nix's perfect record as a favorite
➤Bo Nix has started all 12 games so far this season for the Broncos, and Denver is 9-3 ATS, covering the number by 6.5 PPG. The only QB more profitable ATS this season entering Week 13 is Jared Goff, who is 9-2 ATS with Thanksgiving on deck.
Nix has only closed as a favorite five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts.
Jayden Daniels started 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite earlier this season before losing two straight SU as a favorite against the Steelers and Cowboys. Not to mention, Caleb Williams also started 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite, too.
Bo Nix would be the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
Between Weeks 1-4, Nix had a CPOE (completion pct over expected) that ranked 30th in the NFL. Since Week 5, Nix is 11th in the NFL.
Jameis Winston's struggles against Sean Payton
➤With Jameis Winston once playing in the same division as Sean Payton, he has faced him nine times in his NFL career. Winston is 3-6 SU and ATS, losing his last three matchups vs. Payton both SU and ATS since 2018.
Winston’s struggles with extended rest
➤Jameis hasn’t been great on extended rest in his career, he is 5-9 ATS, losing his last six games ATS on more prep time, including 1-8 ATS in his last 9 games on extended rest.
Browns' performance with extra rest
➤Browns are on the longest possible rest time without having a bye week this week, going from playing Thursday Night Football to Monday Night Football. Those such teams are 20-17 SU and 21-13-3 ATS over the last decade, with those games going 25-12 to the under, by 4.1 PPG.
Overall, Kevin Stefanski has done a good job as an underdog in night games. He is 3-2 ATS, but on a 6pt teaser, he is 5-0 in that spot.
Monday Night Football Overs
➤Monday Night Football overs have been the trend in 2024. They are 11-4 to the over, going over by 5.5 PPG.
At the moment, this is the 2nd-best year for overs on MNF in the last 20 years behind just 2008 when they were 12-3-2 to the over.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Late season divisional unders in the early Sunday window.
Matches: HOU/JAC, PIT/CIN
System: Teams off a divisional loss, who have to play another divisional game on deck have been plus-ROI bets historically.
Matches: HOU, PIT
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System: Underdogs with a bad record, that maybe aren't as bad as their record shows.
Matches: JAC, SF, NO, NYJ
System: The Broncos are off a road game in Vegas last week. Not always the best recipe for covering the following week.
Matches: CLE
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