Our NFL Week 13 Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 127-74-6 (62.8%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 12, the unlucky teams meeting our critera went 1-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 14-13-1 (51.8%) record ATS on the season.
The lone Luck Total in Week 12 was a Luck Under that went over its total. That moves Luck Unders to 8-9-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 12-9-0 (57.1%) record this season.
As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 26-22-1 (54.1%) on the season.
For NFL Week 13, there are two Luck Matchups and two Luck Unders. Let's take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 13 Discussion
We've hit an inflection point in the season where three things happen in the Luck Rankings.
First, the Luck Gap% threshold reduces from 50% to 30%, which should make sense. As time goes along, luck tends to regress to the mean, so it's harder to have big luck-gap games.
At the same time, with more data, we have more evidence teams have been lucky so we'd also expect the narrowing threshold to still provide value as evidence piles up.
Second, and maybe most importantly, Luck Matchups suddenly hit some major trends with this change.
Unlucky teams in games meeting the 30% threshold criteria from Week 13 to the second-to-last week of the regular season (we always ignore the last week due to motivation reasons) are an astonishing 25-4-1 (85%) ATS since 2018. That includes:
- 11-0-1 ATS since 2022, which is the season I first started using my Luck Rankings formula
- 15-1-0 ATS since 2018 if the unlucky team is also on the road
I should note that since 2018, Week 13 has always come after Thanksgiving except in 2019. So this is possibly a post-Thanksgiving trend as Luck Matchups went 1-1 in 2019 during that Thanksgiving Week 13.
Finally, the third major point of note is that the threshold for a Luck Over reduces from a Luck Total of +10 to +5 (it was actually reduced last week, but nothing met the threshold). Luck Overs are much more rare since games tend to get bet up, so it requires more stringent thresholds than Luck Unders.
But as a result, Luck Overs after Week 11 are 29-18-1 (61.5%) to the over since 2018. Add that to the early season Luck Over criteria (Luck Total above +10 after Week 3), which is 17-5-0 (77.3%) to the over, and we have Luck Overs as a whole are 46-23-1 (66.4%) to the over.
This is an exciting time of year for the Luck Rankings, and hopefully this season ends on another strong note!
