Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 13 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 13 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 13 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
T-2. Panthers
Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 81.9%
T-2. Eagles
Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 81.9%
T-4. Ravens
Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
T-4. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
6. Packers
Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
7. Saints
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
8. Patriots
Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 62%
9. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-10. Rams
Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-10. Chargers
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-10. Colts
Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-10. Jets
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-10. Bears
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
15. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-16. Steelers
Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-16. Browns
Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 50%
18. Buccaneers
Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-19. Titans
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-19. Bengals
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-19. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-19. Lions
Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-19. Broncos
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
24. Vikings
Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
25. Texans
Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 38%
26. Falcons
Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
27. Giants
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
T-28. 49ers
Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-28. Bills
Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-30. Redskins
Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 18.1%
T-30. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 18.1%
32. Raiders
Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Falcons
Spread: 7
Opponent: vs. NO
2. Bengals
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ
3. Steelers
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE
4. Giants
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: vs. GB
5. Jaguars
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. TB
6. Lions
Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. CHI
T-7. Cardinals
Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-7. Broncos
Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. LAC
T-7. Bills
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ DAL
10. Chiefs
Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. OAK
T-11. Panthers
Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. WAS
T-11. Eagles
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ MIA
T-11. Texans
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. NE
T-11. 49ers
Spread: 6
Opponent: @ BAL
T-15. Seahawks
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. MIN
T-15. Colts
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. TEN
T-15. Titans
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ IND
T-15. Vikings
Spread: 3
Opponent: @ SEA
T-19. Ravens
Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. SF
T-19. Patriots
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ HOU
T-19. Redskins
Spread: 10
Opponent: @ CAR
T-19. Dolphins
Spread: 10
Opponent: vs. PHI
23. Raiders
Spread: 10
Opponent: @ KC
T-24. Cowboys
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. BUF
T-24. Rams
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ ARI
26. Chargers
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ DEN
27. Bears
Spread: -4
Opponent: @ DET
28. Buccaneers
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ JAX
29. Packers
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: @ NYG
30. Browns
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ PIT
31. Jets
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ CIN
32. Saints
Spread: -7
Opponent: @ ATL
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
