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Week 13 Odds & Picks
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The 49ers defense will be rightfully lauded after shutting out the Saints, but the Dolphins’ offense will be a shock to their system. The 49ers have played the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in terms of Football Outsiders' DVOA, but now face a Miami offense ranked second in overall DVOA and first in passing DVOA even when Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson’s starts are included.
Injuries at tackle shouldn’t hamper the offense too much, as Tua Tagovailoa is tied for the fifth–quickest average time to throw (2.50 seconds) among 39 qualified quarterbacks. He also leads all quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus passing grade under pressure (68.9) and in PFF passing grade when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds (90.2).
On defense, Miami matches up well because it is stout against the run, ranking fourth in early-down rush success rate allowed (34.5%). Miami’s pass defense is also improving thanks to the addition of Bradley Chubb, who has registered a sack in two of his three games as a Dolphin and helped the defense average 3.3 sacks per game since his arrival, up from 1.6 before he was acquired.
Per our Action Labs data, Tagovailoa is 9-4-1 (69%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in his career. And this season, underdogs by more than a field goal in games with a total of 47 or less are 51-26 (66%) ATS.
Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (Bet to +3) |
