Marcus Mariota
Under 170.5 Passing Yards
The Falcons continue to be the most run-heavy team in the NFL on early downs in neutral situations this season.
When Mariota does throw a rare pass, it’s been an average of 9.8 yards down the field, which is the third highest in the NFL. However, last week, it was the third lowest in the league at 5.5 yards. I would imagine one of the reasons for his low Average Depth of Target was because Kyle Pitts is now out for the season. If we get a run-heavy Falcons offense with a lower aDot without Pitts, sign me up for this under.
Worst-case scenario for this pick is if the Falcons get down big early and are forced into a pass-heavy script. After a crucial interception on a second-and-goal situation last week, though, I’m guessing we could see Desmond Ridder replace Mariota at any moment. While I don't think that moment is likely to come – far from it – it's still in the realm of possibilities, adding value to this bet.
I’m projecting this for closer to 155.5 and think Mariota has a lower floor than usual this week.
D'Andre Swift
Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
Swift hasn’t cleared this total since Week 3, but this is a sneaky time to invest in him.
Swift looked great last week and seems to be over his injuries. He’s starting to eat into Justin Jackson’s playing time, so there’s a chance he gets seven or more carries today.
Either way, he should be able to get over his total with the usual five or six rush attempts he gets. I’m projecting him for closer to 25.5 rushing yards here, with upside for more.
Pick: D'Andre Swift Over 20.5 Rushing Yards |
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Adam Thielen
Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
The Vikings face a stingy Jets pass defense, and Thielen should have to face Sauce Gardner at times in this matchup.
Thielen is coming off a nice 61-yard performance, but it took him nine receptions and 10 targets to get there. It was also a game that saw tight end T.J. Hockenson stay in to block more than usual.
Thielen does have a fairly high floor, but he has to compete with Justin Jefferson and now Hockenson for targets. In a tougher matchup, I like the idea of fading him.
I’m projecting his median closer to 43.5 yards.
Logan Thomas
Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
The Commanders have become an extremely run-heavy team, leading the league in early down rush rate in neutral situations over their last three games.
Considering they’ve been winning with this strategy and face the Giants, I see them sticking to it and want to fade their passing attack in some way. Thomas seems to be the safest route, as he has only cleared this number once in the last five games.
John Bates has also been playing well, so there’s a chance he could eat into Thomas’ snaps as soon as this week.
I’m projecting Thomas’ median for closer to 19.5. He seems to have more paths to a floor game here.
Harrison Bryant
Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Deshaun Watson is back and David Njoku is out. The new Browns QB will likely be rusty, which is one of the reasons I’ve picked the Texans to cover here.
Bryant will likely see the most high-percentage targets of all Browns pass catchers. If Watson does come out looking rusty, he’ll likely be missing throws down the field to the likes of Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, essentially leading to more targets closer to the line of scrimmage for Bryant.
I’m projecting his median for closer to 28.5 passing yards if this theory works out. In that case, Bryant has sneaky upside in this market.
Pick: Harrison Bryant Over 23.5 Receiving Yards |
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Kyren Williams
Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
I took advantage of this projection last week and will continue to invest in it until the market adjusts.
The Rams should trail for most of this game against the Seahawks, setting up plenty of chances for Williams. With John Wolford starting this week over Bryce Perkins, we also get a boost. Perkins scrambled often last week against the Chiefs, while Wolford will look to throw the ball more.
Who will he throw it to? Expect a lot of dump-off work to Williams.
I’m projecting Williams’ median for closer to 21.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he clears that number, as well.
Tyler Lockett
Under 5.5 Receptions (-145, BetMGM)
Lockett has only cleared this total once in his last seven games.
The Seahawks are seven-point favorites against a decimated Rams team and should win with ease here. Look for Seattle to lead throughout this game and have a run-heavy game script as a result.
Lockett has caught 77% of his passes this season, which is an unsustainable rate even for a player of his quality. I like the idea of investing in this market instead of his yardage because Lockett is always a big play waiting to happen.
I’m projecting the fair price for this closer to -185.
