Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving weekend!
We're off to a good start on NFL Week 13, already up over three units thanks to big hits on D.J. Moore and Jonnu Smith escalators, so let's keep it going on a lighter Sunday. Every NFL team is in action with no bye weeks, so let's make some NFL picks and predictions.
Be sure to check the app for sides I already like below the key number, like the Seahawks and Colts, though I decided to buy out of my 49ers position with the injury and weather uncertainties.
Let's get to the Week 13 Sunday picks.
NFL Week 13 Predictions
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Texans vs. Jaguars
I haven't believed in these Texans at any point this season, but I might against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars offense scored just six and seven points its last two games heading into the bye week. And sure, that was against two of the top three defenses in the league by DVOA, but guess which team is the third? That's Houston.
Though I don't trust Bobby Slowik's offense much, the Texans defense is the standout unit in this game, ranking in the top four against both the run and the pass. Trevor Lawrence will return but may be rusty and likely isn't 100%.
On the other side of things, Jacksonville ranks dead last defensively, and Slowik's offense has been much better early. The Texans offense ranks in the top half of the league in first-half DVOA and in the bottom 10 after halftime. Houston, though, has the league's best first-half defense.
That may explain why Houston is an NFL-best 10-2 ATS in the first half while Jacksonville is 4-7. It might also be why the Texans are an ugly 2-10 ATS in the second half — and why we're not just playing the full-game spread.
I don't mind the full-game spread. The Texans have won six straight in Jacksonville and 11 of the last 13 against the Jaguars overall, and this could be a get-right game for the Texans.
I'm not entirely positive why Doug Pederson is still employed in Jacksonville, but don't count on the bye week to fix things. Pederson is 2-5 ATS after the week off. Still, if you like the Jaguars in this game, I don't blame you — I obviously don't hate them either, given how much I've looked to fade Houston this season.
welp, here goes nothin…
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS DIVISION +50000 MGM
Pederson stayed, Lawrence playing for some reason…
if they beat the Texans, couldn't they win out aTen, nyj, aLV, ten, aInd? they'd need Houston to lose to Bal + KC + 1 of Mia/Ten, plus 1 more Colts loss… https://t.co/ba4iGeU0kMpic.twitter.com/zhR4ZtiNac
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) November 27, 2024
I already bet the Jaguars at 500-1 to win the division. Jacksonville would need to win out starting here and get a little help. It's not as crazy as you think if Trevor Lawrence is the best QB in the division down the stretch.
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Cardinals vs. Vikings
I went 0-3 on first-quarter bets last week and said I'd sworn them off forever, but both of these teams owe us some money. These are two of the teams I bet first-quarter props on, and the Vikings drove right down the field to start the game before fumbling at the 2-yard line and scoring on the first play of the second quarter for good measure, while the Raiders (another first-quarter bet) had a similarly-timed score.
We got unlucky, but I'm willing to forgive Arizona and Minnesota if they make it right this week.
Minnesota's pass defense has quietly faded a bit, outside the top 10 by DVOA over the past six weeks, and it's not as effective against top quarterbacks that can handle Brian Flores' pressure. Kyler Murray may be able to find some answers. Arizona's defense, on the other hand, has been greatly improved at home but still ranks bottom 10 on the road and Minnesota's offense has been at its best early.
The Vikings have scored 10 touchdowns in 11 first quarters this season, averaging 7.5 points per game and scoring in all but two opening stanzas. They really could and perhaps should have had two TDs in their scoreless first quarter last Sunday. Arizona has been almost as good, with at least one TD in seven of 11 first quarters and a 5.7 points per game average.
These are the two best first-quarter offenses in the NFL by DVOA. This is the exact angle we tried to play last week, only it's now twice as strong with the two best teams facing off. These offenses should score early.
Be sure to shop around. Some books list this first-quarter total at 7.5 while others have it at 9.5 with effectively the same juiced odds. And sure, a football game with over 7.5 points probably gets to 10 most of the time — we all know how a touchdown and a field goal add up — 7.5 offers insurance.
If books give you a free two points on your bet, you should always take it.
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Rams vs. Saints
By many season-long metrics, this game should be pretty dead even. The Rams are 20th in DVOA, the Saints 18th. Los Angeles ranks 14th on offense, New Orleans 16th; the teams are 22nd and 23rd in defense. Those metrics don't accurately depict the direction these teams are going, though.
The Saints' early-season offense from Weeks 1 and 2 is gone. The offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, and Cedrick Wilson and Mason Tipton are the starting receivers. A once-proud defense has crumbled, dead last against the run over the past six weeks — and Sean McVay's offenses have always seen their success rise and fall on the run game — and misses Dennis Allen and Marshon Lattimore.
The Rams are trending in the other direction. An offensive line that was supposed to be top 10 is finally getting healthy, and Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are back. This is unit is again of the most dangerous offenses in the league if Matthew Stafford gets protection, and he should in this game. The young defense has also come together nicely and is a fringe top-10 unit against both the run and the pass over the last six weeks.
This is a great chance to sell high on the Saints after two wins under interim coach Darren Rizzi. The Rams offense is a far bigger threat than the Falcons or Browns, and New Orleans absolutely should've lost that Atlanta game anyway.
The Rams can win in the trenches. Jared Verse and the young pass rush should get to Derek Carr and make him struggle under pressure, and Stafford might pick apart this Saints defense if he gets protection.
It's also a great buy-low spot on the Rams after a loss to a really good Eagles team. Teams that just won by 17+ as underdogs of seven or less, like the Saints, are an ugly 64-116-3 ATS the following game (36%) over the last two decades. Winners of 17+ facing teams that just lost by 17+ like the Rams cover only 39% of the time.
Sean McVay is 59% ATS after a loss, and road favorites of under six points facing an opponent off a bye week are 28-15-2 ATS (65%). When a team has a rest advantage like the Saints and is still an underdog even at home, books are telling us who the better team is.
Getting the Rams below the key number of three is a gift.
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Don't look now, but Bryce Young actually played pretty well last week against the Chiefs — though perhaps that's a bit less impressive now considering Kansas City's dud of a performance on Black Friday against Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders.
All things considered, Kansas City dud against Vegas yesterday was one of the worst performances of the year.
Raiders 100+ yards, 2 full yards a play better, no Davante Adams or RBs. Chiefs horrid -0.35 EPA/play running on early downs, just 1/13 success. Mahomes 5 sacks. Ugly.
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) November 30, 2024
Still, the Panthers are starting to find a few answers offensively, enough to perhaps hang with the favored Bucs and put up some points on this defense. Would that be a surprise?
Carolina games have been high-scoring in the first half all season. Panthers first-half overs are 10-1, best in the NFL, and Bucs games aren't far behind at 8-3. These teams score early and often and I don't mind the over on 23.5, but I'd rather just play the offense I'm more confident in.
Even without Chris Godwin and with some injuries on the offensive line, Tampa Bay's offense keeps rolling, ranking in the top quarter of the league in many metrics. Carolina is last or close to it in most of the same metrics, and its run defense could be especially exposed here against Bucky Irving and a surprising Bucs ground game that's been one of the best in the league over the last six weeks.
Carolina is 3-7, and the defense held its own in its three wins. In those losses, the Panthers have allowed at least 20 points in every first half, trailing by an average halftime score of 23.5-7.1. Carolina had allowed at least three touchdowns in each first half of those losses until Kansas City had "only" 20 points last week, settling for two red-zone field goals and two TDs. The Bucs have scored at least 13 first-half points in all but three games, each of them against top opponents.
This is a bet we've hit multiple times this season. Keep it simple and bet on the Bucs offense against the worst first-half defense in the league.
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Eagles vs. Ravens
Man, this game looks awesome.
This could honestly be a Super Bowl preview — two great offenses, elite coaching staffs, plenty of defenses, MVP candidates galore. I don't want a side or a total on this one, when I can just enjoy the game and learn.
All the talk heading into this game is on the two quarterbacks and the pair of elite RBs vying for OPOY, but it's A.J. Brown that has my attention.
The weakest single unit in this game — assuming Justin Tucker doesn't count — is probably Baltimore's passing defense, which continues to falter more and more each week. The Ravens rank dead last by DVOA against opposing WR1s and bottom three against the deep ball. Baltimore has allowed the second-most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing WRs.
It's bad, and it's been especially bad against opposing WR1s. Here, see for yourself. This is every WR1 Baltimore has faced this season, starting in Week 1:
| Player | Catches | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 7 | 103 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 110 | 1 |
| CeeDeeLamb | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 193 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 53 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 7 | 99 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 122 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 264 | 3 |
| George Pickens | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 83 | 0 |
Whew. That's some incredible production, an average of 7.2 catches for 109 yards and 0.8 TDs on almost 10 targets a game. Every WR1 this season has at least 53 yards, and all but two caught at least six passes. Half reached 99 receiving yards, all with at least seven catches. Four scored multiple touchdowns.
Of course, books have priced Brown at the top of the WR market with his receiving yards line, so the question now is how we play it.
At first glance, over 5.5 receptions looks tasty. Opposing WR1s have hit that 83% of the time this season. But Brown isn't usually a receptions monster with exactly exactly five or six catches in all but one game this season. That line is also juiced heavily around -150 at many books, though, so it's not the right play.
Yards are a better way to attack, even though the number has ticked up a bit already. Brown has started and finished eight games this season and has 84+ yards in six of those. That means the over 87.5 is worth playing (-112, BetRivers), even at a steep number.
Brown has at least 109 yards in half of his games this season, and he had 114+ yards in seven of 16 games last season, so he's getting 100 about half the time if healthy. If you can stomach a little extra risk, I prefer 100+ receiving yards at +130 (bet365), nearly a 50% better payout for just 12 more yards.
Brown's big-play ability on limited receptions leave us an intriguing opportunity at a negatively-correlated SGP. What if Brown stays under the juiced 5.5 receptions line but still gets 80 yards? He's done that four times in eight games this season, and we can bet that at +836 at FanDuel.
Get more aggressive, if you like, but the margins get thin. Under 5.5 catches and 100+ yards is +2196 at FanDuel. Brown's done that twice with two near misses at 5/84 and 5/89 — it's worth a sprinkle.
I'm not too excited at +130 for Brown's anytime touchdown odds, but +1000 for two touchdowns (BetMGM) is a crazy price — and so is +6600 for 3+. Brown has four games in his Eagles career with multiple scores — four in 40, so a 10% hit rate, about this number before accounting for the incredible matchup — including one with three.
Here's how I'm splitting up two units on my Brown bets, looking for a monster day:
- 100+ receiving yards (+130), 1 unit
- Under 5.5 receptions & 80+ yards (+836), 0.25 unit
- Under 5.5 receptions & 100+ yards (+2196), 0.1 unit
- 2+ Anytime TDs (+1000), 0.25 unit
- 3+ TDs (+6600), 0.1 unit
- Under 5.5 receptions & 100+ yards & 2 TDs (+19085), 0.05 unit
- A.J. Brown & Zay Flowers to each have 20+ receiving yards in each half (+300 FanDuel), 0.25 units
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NFL Week 14 Lookahead
We got this exact game two weeks ago and it closed at 36.5, so why is this line four points higher?
Now, granted, that game ended up going over the number, but it was an under all the way until the late "snowver." The game was a total snoozefest for three quarters, sitting at 10-6 with just 12 minutes left, before lake effect snow kicked in and saw both teams score two touchdowns in the final quarter in sloppy conditions.
Pittsburgh's defense is the standout unit in the game, but the Browns defense also played well. Alex Highsmith is back and gives Pittsburgh the best pass rush in the league next to DPOY favorite T.J. Watt, and reigning DPOY Myles Garrett is pretty fearsome on the other side too.
Starting in Week 14, it's often a pretty good idea to look for unders in division games. From Week 14 forward in division games, unders are 58% with a home favorite under seven points, 56% with a total between 40-47, and 56% in windy conditions like we'll surely get here.
Browns games average just over 42 points on the season, with over half of them at 37 or below. Steelers games average just under 40, with almost half at 37 or below, as well.
This total only goes one direction. I smell a mineshaft. Grab the Lookahead under 40.5 before it drops.
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