Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 13.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-63-6 (62%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent.
For the year, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-9-2 ATS. There are two games that technically don't meet either of our Luck Matchup criteria, but do fit another interesting trend with a smaller sample size.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 0-2 to the under last week, falling to 22-14-1 (62.5%) to the under this year and 116-79-3 (60%) over the past six years. Luck overs, however, went 2-1, moving to 32-18-1 over the past six years. Overall, Luck Totals meeting any of the criteria are 155-99-4 (61%) since 2018.
There are two Week 13 games that meet the Luck Totals criteria. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 13
Dolphins vs. Commanders: Under 49.5
With a Luck Total of -11, this game — on the surface — would appear to be a solid Luck Under.
However, there's a bit of a reverse signal, as games with a Luck Total below -7.5 this late in the season are actually 20-12 to the over in the past six years. Ideally, this late in the year, we'd want the Luck Total to be between -5 and -7.5 to hit at the highest clip.
This is likely happening because teams with Luck Totals this low are really just displaying that they're consistently scoring, and allowing scores, at a rate well above expectation, so expectations may need to be adjusted for these teams. Thus, even with some regression, they're still hitting overs.
This seems like a good spot to avoid taking a stand on either side unless this moved above a total of 51, where backing the under may make sense at such a key number.
Pick: Under 49.5
Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Steelers
49ers (-3) vs. Eagles
These two games are indeed luck-based matchups, even though they don't fit our two main criteria. This is probably a new, third criteria we'll be looking to expand upon in the future.
In Week 13 or later, if the Luck Gap is at least 30%, the unlucky team covers with a 25-7-2 (76.5%) record. Additionally, if the unlucky team is the road team, it covers at a 13-1-1 (90%) clip.
Notably, though, there's only been one case of a West Coast team visiting an East Coast team and fitting this criteria. In 2019, the Chargers visited Jacksonville in Week 14 and were the unlucky team in a game with a Luck Gap of 34.6%. The Chargers covered.
Arizona and San Francisco will look to add to the trend.
Cardinals-Steelers Pick: Cardinals +6.5
49ers-Eagles Pick: 49ers -3
Bengals vs. Jaguars: Over 39
This is our fourth Luck Over of the year, and it's a bit of an ugly one.
Luck Overs are 31-12-1 when the total lies between 37.5 and 49.5, but this game is dangerously close to falling out of that range. With most of the tickets and money on the under, there's a chance this game falls below 38. Luck Overs with a total below 38 are just 1-5 (16.7%) to the over.
There is one other positive sign for the over, games with a Luck Total between 5 and 7 are 27-9-1 (74.3%) to the over, so if this remains above 38, the over trends all line up well.
Pick: Over 39
