Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions and picks.
For reference, my season-long sides record in this file sits at 25-14 (64.1%) for +9.55 units after last Sunday's 2-1 outing.
For my expert picks against the spread in Week 13, I'm targeting one bet in each Sunday time slot, starting with a small home favorite in the early slate and finishing up in primetime with a wager. I'll also bet on the biggest game of the day — 49ers vs Eagles — in between.
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As most know by now, C.J. Stroud is the real deal and he may finally have a fully healthy group of receivers for the first time since the season opener.
Houston has an enormous quarterback edge in this game, but this is mainly about selling high on Denver after five straight wins that involved quite a bit of good fortune. Three of the five wins came by a combined five points with the other two coming against an under-the-weather Patrick Mahomes and a Browns team that lost a plethora of key starters — including their quarterback — in last week's game in Denver.
The Broncos have enjoyed extreme luck in the red zone, fourth downs and the turnover department. During these last five victories, their opponents have turned the ball over 16 times while the Broncos have coughed it up just twice. That's a whopping turnover margin of +14 in five games! Those 16 turnovers have led to 44 of their 117 points (37.7%) during this stretch. Even with good fortune, they're only averaging 23.4 points per game, which plummets to 14.5 without those gifted scores.
Regression certainly looms for the Broncos, who have remarkably recovered 12 of the 14 fumbles they have forced. For reference, no other team has recovered more than nine.
This sudden resurgence has more to do with getting every bounce than it does about suddenly turning into a legit contender in the AFC.
Denver's defense has certainly improved from the historically bad unit we saw over the first six weeks. Personnel changes in the secondary, a few schematic tweaks and improved health in the front seven have led to better results, but make no mistakes about it, this is still a bottom-10 defense.
Since Week 7, Denver's defense ranks seventh in EPA per play. However, that metric is heavily impacted by turnovers. If you remove those, Denver drops to 25th in EPA per play and 24th in Success Rate. The Broncos have been living off turnover luck for five straight weeks, which isn't a sustainable formula for success.
Over that same period, Houston's now healthier defense ranks 16th in EPA per play and sixth in Success Rate, sans turnovers. That includes a top-two Success Rate against the run, which is critical against a Denver ground game that serves as the engine to the offense, grinding out yards and setting up easy throws for Russell Wilson after the scripted portion of the game (where the Broncos have excelled under Sean Payton). Wilson isn't attacking downfield enough to exploit Houston's primary weakness on defense.
The story is similar if we compare offenses over the past five weeks where the Texans hold a significant edge. Removing turnovers, Houston ranks fifth in EPA per play and 12th in Success Rate while the Broncos rank 23rd and 25th, respectively.
Lastly, from a matchup perspective, the Broncos blitz at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL, yet only generate pressure at the fourth-lowest rate. That spells trouble against Stroud, who has performed at an incredible level when kept clean, while also handling blitz looks with a pretty high efficacy.
Problems can arise for the inexperienced Stroud, who's thrived against Cover 3 looks (which he'll see plenty of this week), when opposing defenses generate pressure without blitzing. However, Denver doesn't possess that capability.
Trending: In Week 12 or later, underdogs on a four-plus-game winning streak have gone just 26-47-4 ATS (35.6%), failing to cover by 3.8 points per game. That includes a paltry 9-26-1 (25.7%) ATS mark in non-division matchups against opponents with a winning record with a -8 average coverage margin. Both trends apply to the Broncos and Eagles this week with each riding five-game winning streaks.
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I'm going right back to the well with an Eagles fade after they somehow pulled out a fourth straight one-possession victory despite getting outgained by 100-plus yards in each. That brings Philly, which sits at No. 2 in our season-long luck metrics, to 7-1 in one-possession games this year.
The Eagles have gotten every possible bounce over the past month with last week's magic coming in the form of positive penalty and field goal variance. Regression looms in the City of Brotherly Love.
The Eagles are still one of the best three teams in the NFC — and one of only seven I see as a realistic Super Bowl contender — but they aren't playing anywhere close to the level we saw last season on either side of the ball in spite of a league-best 10-1 record. Jalen Hurts continues to trend in the right direction health wise, but he clearly doesn't have his peak burst, which makes the entire offense much less dynamic and easier to defend.
Philly could still be without star right tackle Lane Johnson, which would be a massive loss up front against a San Francisco defense that has two bona fide edge rushers. It's hard to ever doubt Johnson, who stated that he thinks he will play, but I could see the Eagles holding him out with a groin injury in potential rainy conditions. The weather makes it dicey, not to mention the Cowboys are on deck in Week 14.
The Eagles also might not have the services of tight end Dallas Goedert, which hurts on third downs in the red zone. Without Goedert, the Eagles don't have a third option in the passing game that defenses have to respect.
This also sets up as an amazing situational and scheduling spot for the 49ers. I'm sure they've had this game circled for close to a calendar year after losing in the NFC Championship Game without a quarterback. I assume Kyle Shanahan has been working on the script for this rematch since the minute that game ended.
Additionally, the 49ers should come into this game much healthier overall — it looks like the offensive line will finally be at full strength — with an enormous rest advantage. After the Eagles avenged their Super Bowl loss in a 60-minute battle in Kansas City, they came back home on a short week to face Buffalo in a game that went to overtime where their defense was on the field for a whopping 92 plays.
Philly suffered a few key injuries at linebacker (it will likely miss Zach Cunningham this week at a position where it's lacking depth) and along the defensive line, which forced both Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis to log career-high snap counts. The Eagles defense has to be absolutely gassed.
Conversely, the 49ers played on Thanksgiving, which gives them extra time to rest and prepare for this highly anticipated NFC showdown. They've also won three straight in blowout fashion and should have fresh legs on both sides of the ball. Now 100% healthy, the 49ers offense is rolling. At full strength, they have the best offense in the league, and they are capable of exploiting Philly's weak coverage over the middle of the field, specifically against the slot and tight end.
From a DVOA perspective, Philly ranks 17th overall on defense and 21st against the pass. Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who aren't getting any younger, have not played at a high level, while the Eagles just haven't found a viable replacement for the injured Avonte Maddox in the slot. I envision George Kittle and Deebo Samuel having superb games, especially since Brock Purdy has shredded Cover 1 looks, something he should see often against the Eagles.
Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense is also playing at an elite level after recent depth chart changes.
The front office traded for Chase Young, which filled a major void at one defensive end spot. His presence has created many more one-on-one matchups for Joey Bosa, Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave. That has naturally led to increased pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which obviously helps a secondary that recently made key changes.
Deommodore Lenoir moved from the outside to slot where he's better suited. More importantly, that led to the benching of Josh Oliver, who's allowed the highest reception rate (87.5%) of any cornerback this season. Consequently, the 49ers inserted Ambry Thomas as a starter on the outside opposite Charvarius Ward — both grade out as top-15 corners. I also like the matchup as Ward can match the physicality of A.J. Brown and Thomas has the skill set to stick with the shiftier, speedier DeVonta Smith.
Rookie safety Ji'Ayir Brown has also filled in admirably for the injured Talanoa Hufanga. Throw in a top-tier linebacker group and the 49ers now feature one of the league's most complete defenses to complement a tremendous offense.
(Off topic, but does any NFL team have more difficult defensive back names to spell than the 49ers?!?)
I love the 49ers. Not only is this a great situational and scheduling spot, but they are also rolling on both sides and match up extremely well with an Eagles team that isn't performing at their peak right now.
Trending: Teams with a 90% or greater win percentage in Week 13 or later have gone 23-41-1 ATS (35.9%) over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by just under a FG per game. It makes sense selling at the top of market with teams people don't want to fade.
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First off, this is a great situational spot on paper for the Packers.
They will play their biggest game of the season at home in primetime after previously playing on Thursday afternoon, which gives them extra time to rest up, get healthy and prepare. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will play their second straight road game after a divisional win in Las Vegas with a marquee matchup against the Bills on deck.
Most importantly, the Packers are playing their best football of the season. Overall, Green Bay has been fairly unlucky in 2023 with four losses by a combined 10 points, in addition to a number of key injuries. But the on-field performance has taken a major leap due to the significant improvement of quarterback Jordan Love.
On the other side, the Kansas City offense still can't find rhythm, primarily as a result of drops and inconsistent play from a very underwhelming wide receiver corps in addition to issues at both tackle spots.
Let's just compare both quarterbacks since Week 7, which came after Green Bay's bye week. Love has been even better over the past three weeks, but this will provide us with a larger sample size. From an Adjusted EPA per Play perspective, Love ranks ninth amongst all quarterbacks while Mahomes ranks 10th. Their Adjusted Completion percentages are also about equal even though Love has averaged 1.5 more Air Yards.
I'm not trying to compare the two by any stretch. Mahomes is in a different stratosphere and remains the best quarterback on the planet. However, that speaks to the improvements of this young Green Bay offense that continues to grow in confidence. It also just makes logical sense that Green Bay continues to make strides as the season has progressed with so many young pieces and an offensive line that dealt with injuries early on.
It also illustrates some of the struggles the Chiefs have dealt with on the offensive side of the ball, where they continue to go through extended droughts on a weekly basis. I just don't trust them to win by substantial margin at the moment. Plus, the Packers should enjoy much better health on defense after the extended break, especially in the secondary.
I'm a believer in Kansas City's defensive improvement, but the secondary has played above its head so far this season. Green Bay's sturdy offensive line can also hold its own up front, which is key against Chris Jones and company.
The Packers should have a bit of success on the ground — where the Chiefs remain extremely vulnerable — and I expect Love to continue his strong recent play by connecting on a few key explosives downfield with an inexperienced wide receiver corps that has improved dramatically since the start of the season.
Ultimately, I believe this line is too high in a spot that also favors the Packers. I expect to get Green Bay's best effort in a game that could ultimately decide whether it makes the postseason.
Trending: As a favorite of more than a field goal, Patrick Mahomes has a career ATS record of just 32-37-1 (46.4%), including 14-25 (35.9%) over the past three seasons. In all other career regular season games as either an underdog or favorite of three or less, he's gone a sparkling 15-5-1 (75%) ATS with an average cover margin of six points per game.
