It’s Thanksgiving week, and no NFL teams are on bye, so we have a schedule jam-packed with exciting matchups in Week 13.
Playoff implications reign supreme this time of year, with high-stakes games happening across the league.
This week also features a potential Super Bowl preview as the Baltimore Ravens host the Philadelphia Eagles. With so much to break down, let’s dive into the slate.
Bears vs. Lions
The Lions continue to roll through the NFL with no regard for human life, demolishing teams week after week. The odds suggest this will be another blowout win for Detroit, which is the biggest favorite it’s been on Thanksgiving since 1968, per Evan Abrams’ research. The Lions are now 15-5 ATS against the NFC North with Jared Goff.
Detroit’s run game should overpower Chicago in this matchup. David Montgomery is good to go after an injury scare on Sunday, while Jahmyr Gibbs remains one of the most explosive players in the league. The Bears rank 30th in run defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted line yards, so it could be a long day for their defensive front.
Caleb Williams has looked more polished under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, but this is a tough spot against the top-ranked pass defense in the league by DVOA. Williams could use his legs more often in this matchup, especially with Brown dialing up more designed runs, making his rushing prop a compelling look.
This line is overinflated in the direction of the Lions with sportsbooks fully anticipating public money to pour in on the home favorites. I’m not in the business of stepping in front of this Detroit train, but the value is on the Bears here.
Verdict: Pass
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Giants vs. Cowboys
While the Cowboys were pulling off a shocking upset over the Commanders as 11-point road underdogs, Sunday went as poorly as it could for the Giants. In Tommy DeVito’s first start of the season, New York lost 30-7 to the Buccaneers at home. DeVito was pressured on 43.6% of his dropbacks last week, which could become an issue against the Cowboys, who rank fifth in pressure rate this season.
However, DeVito is now in danger of missing this game with a forearm injury, and I’d consider Drew Lock to be a significant upgrade. Lock can do enough to keep the chains moving while the Giants rely on the run game against a Cowboys defense ranked dead last against the run by EPA.
Meanwhile, this is a brutal spot for the Cowboys, with their third game played ten days after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 11. With injuries to CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Zack Martin, and Tyler Smith, Dallas is limping into this one with a real letdown factor at play after snapping their five-game losing streak on Sunday.
The Giants' highly talented defensive line can give Cooper Rush fits in this game, particularly if he’s without multiple offensive line starters. I’m monitoring the injury reports before pulling the trigger, but I’m interested in backing the road underdog here, especially if Drew Lock gets the start.
Verdict: Lean Giants +4
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Dolphins vs. Packers
We’re getting close to the top of the market on the Packers, whose defense I still have significant questions about. Green Bay ranks 31st in early down defensive success rate this year, ahead of only the Packers. Its run defense has also been vulnerable at times, ranking 24th in run stuff rate and 21st in RB line yards, per FTN.
De’Von Achane could take advantage of that early down defense, setting up more manageable third downs for Tua Tagovailoa, who has been on fire lately. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passer rating since returning to the field in Week 8, throwing for 11 touchdowns to one interception over that span.
Tagovailoa rarely makes mistakes when kept clean in the pocket. His 0.9% turnover-worthy play rate in a clean pocket spikes to 11.1% under pressure. I don’t trust the Packers to generate pressure in this game, though – they rank just 27th in pass-rush win rate this season. Green Bay could also be in trouble if cornerback Jaire Alexander is forced to miss another game with his knee injury.
The Packers’ offense has been excellent this year, particularly on the ground, with Josh Jacobs providing a significant boost. However, Green Bay now ranks second in the Action Analytics luck rankings, and this looks like a solid sell-high spot against a quietly surging Dolphins team that has been playing its best football as of late.
You’ll hear a lot about Tagovailoa’s inability to play in the weather leading up to this game, but I believe that narrative is overblown. Even though snow is expected at Lambeau Field, I’m backing the Dolphins on the road, especially over the key number of 3.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins +3.5 (-120 or better)
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Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs won another one-score game on Sunday over the Panthers, bringing their record in one-score games this season to 8-0. They’re favored by 12.5 points on Friday, which is a line they haven’t covered against any team all season. However, I’m not sure if I can stomach betting on this atrocious Raiders team that ranks dead last in EPA/play on offense.
Las Vegas will likely be moving back to Aidan O’Connell this week after Gardner Minshew suffered a broken collarbone against the Broncos. I’m not sure if there’s a marked difference between the two, but O’Connell is more willing to push the ball downfield at times, providing potential upside for some of the team’s pass-catching options.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +12.5
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Seahawks vs. Jets
The Seahawks’ defense is quickly ascending in recent weeks, and it’s playing like the unit I expected to see under Mike Macdonald this year. On Sunday, Seattle held Arizona to just two field goals and 3-12 on third downs. The Cardinals entered the game with one of the most imposing rushing attacks in the league, and the Seahawks held them to 14 carries for 49 yards.
Leonard Williams had an especially dominant game, finishing with six tackles, 2.5 sacks, four QB hits, and three tackles for loss. Linebacker Ernest Jones has been a massive addition, as well. This week, they’ll face one of the most underwhelming offenses in the league. Aaron Rodgers ranks just 24th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, and his lack of mobility and brittle lower body have presented problems behind the 25th-ranked offensive line in pass-block win rate.
I do expect a better effort from the Jets’ defense coming off the bye week, as it’s still a talented group at all three levels. The Seahawks’ offense has left a lot to be desired in recent weeks, particularly as it has struggled to run the ball – Seattle ranks 22nd in early down rushing success rate, putting Geno Smith in third-and-long situations.
The Seahawks rank just 25th in pass-block win rate this season. The interior has been a particular weakness, especially with the sudden midseason retirement of center Connor Williams, and the Jets have an imposing interior defensive line led by Quinnen Williams. Geno Smith’s passer rating falls from 105.4 from a clean pocket to 53.4 under pressure this year.
This isn’t the best spot for the Seahawks, traveling East for an early kickoff against a Jets team coming off its bye week, but I do lean their direction on the spread. I see value on the under here, though, in a game where both offenses could struggle to hit 20 points – the Seahawks haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 7.
Verdict: Bet Under 41.5 Points
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Steelers vs. Bengals
It’s put up or shut up time for the Bengals here. Coming off its bye week, Cincinnati has essentially zero margin for error remaining. It’s been a frustrating season for the Bengals, going 1-6 in one-score games. However, Joe Burrow has thrived in these spots with his back against the wall – he’s 18-7-1 ATS (72%) off a loss in his career.
If you flipped the Bengals’ one-score losses to wins, Burrow would be the MVP favorite right now. He has 27 touchdowns to just four interceptions, but it’s all been for naught. Keep an eye on left tackle Orlando Brown’s practice status this week – his availability is critical against an elite Steelers defense that could return Alex Highsmith to a group of elite pass rushers featuring T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and breakout talent Nick Herbig.
The Steelers’ offense has underwhelmed in recent weeks, and they rank just 27th in passing success rate and 30th in overall offensive success rate since Week 7, when Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. Pittsburgh is the third-most run heavy team in the NFL on early downs, and Cincinnati must stay assignment-sound in run defense like they have in recent weeks – since Week 7, the Bengals have allowed just 1.24 yards before contact per attempt, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL over that span.
I lean towards the Bengals picking up the home win here, especially with the backing of this being a luck rankings game, but I don’t see the line moving much throughout the week. I’ll monitor practice reports before making a final decision.
Verdict: Lean Bengals -2.5
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Colts vs. Patriots
While Anthony Richardson’s final passing line won’t go in the Guinness Book of World Records, he was PFF’s fifth-highest graded passer of the week. He had passes of 30, 21, 21, and 7 yards nullified by penalty and had a would-be touchdown dropped by his receiver. His mechanics have looked far better since returning from his benching, and Shane Steichen is doing a better job of calling plays that accentuate his second-year quarterback’s strengths.
The Colts could have some offensive line issues this week, however. They’ll hope to get left tackle Bernhard Raimann back from injury, but the bigger concern comes at center. Ryan Kelly remains out and Tanor Bortolini is in concussion protocol, meaning third-string center Danny Pinter could be getting the start here – he hasn’t appeared in an NFL game since 2022.
Drake Maye continues to flash exciting talent, but he’s lacked support from his offensive line and pass-catchers. The Colts’ defense has trended up as it’s gotten healthier, ranking 8th in EPA/play allowed since Week 7, and it should contain the Patriots here. That all seems fairly priced into the numbers to me, however.
Verdict: Pass
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Cardinals vs. Vikings
The Cardinals’ rushing attack was completely stymied on Sunday by the Seahawks’ surging defense. It’s been a uniquely physically imposing ground game all year, but this could be another difficult matchup against the Vikings, who rank second in run defense DVOA this season. The onus will likely fall on Kyler Murray to make magic happen on the road against the Vikings, who rank first in blitz rate and second in pressure rate.
The Vikings, meanwhile, will run into a rapidly improving Cardinals defense. Since Week 7, Arizona ranks top ten in EPA/play and success rate allowed. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has done an excellent job starting for an injured Jalen Thompson, while young corners Max Melton and Garrett Williams have improved every week.
Earlier in the year, Arizona was a clear-cut over team, but the total has gone under the closing number in three straight Cardinals games by an average of 13.3 points. This could be another spot to target the under.
Verdict: Lean Under 45 Points
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Titans vs. Commanders
These teams were on opposite ends of two of the most surprising results of the season on Sunday. The Commanders lost at home as 11-point favorites to the Cowboys, while the Titans secured a road upset win over the Texans as 8-point underdogs. You might want to take the Titans here after seeing those two games play out, but I’m wary of this spot for Tennessee.
This will be the Titans’ second straight road game and their fifth road game in the last seven weeks. With playoffs well out of reach and an exhilarating divisional win in the rearview mirror, this may be a letdown spot for a team that still has significant roster holes. Meanwhile, we’ll get Washington’s best effort here after three straight losses.
If anything, I’d consider the under here. The Commanders rank 18th in EPA/play since Week 8 after pacing the NFL in that metric over the first six weeks of the season. Whether it’s been the annual Kliff Kingsbury decline or Jayden Daniels’ injury is unclear, but it’s been impossible to ignore. Meanwhile, the Titans posted 32 points last week despite a paltry 38% offensive success rate – that could lead to a drop-off this week.
Verdict: Lean Under 44.5 Points
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Texans vs. Jaguars
After an embarrassing home loss to the Titans, the Texans are now 2-4 over their last six games, and C.J. Stroud’s struggles have continued. He ranks just 30th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in passing success rate, and he’s been under constant siege behind an offensive line that ranks 27th in pass-block win rate.
This could be the get-right spot for Houston’s offense, however, especially with Nico Collins back in the fold. The Jaguars rank dead last in pass-rush win rate and pass defense DVOA, consistently allowing explosive plays through the air. I’ll likely look to play some passing game props for the Texans, but I don’t have anything I love on the side or total here.
Verdict: Pass
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Chargers vs. Falcons
The Chargers’ defense has finally started to falter in recent weeks as the difficulty of matchups has ratcheted up. After facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Chargers have allowed 27 points to Joe Burrow’s Bengals and 30 points to Lamar Jackson’s Ravens over the last two weeks.
A defensive drop-off shouldn’t be surprising – the advanced metrics have suggested it’s been coming for weeks. Los Angeles ranks just 29th in pressure rate and 28th in adjusted line yards. The Chargers sit back in zone coverage and allow quarterbacks time in the pocket – that’s music to the ears of Kirk Cousins, who has had some monster games this season with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts providing elite support.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have shifted to one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league – they rank second in neutral pass play rate since Week 6, and an injury to J.K. Dobbins will only further encourage a pass-first approach. Justin Herbert has been playing exceptional football lately – since Week 6, he’s PFF’s highest-graded quarterback with 18 big-time throws to just four turnover-worthy plays.
Like the Chargers, the Falcons rank bottom four in pressure rate and top-six in zone coverage rate. Atlanta ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA, and Herbert should piece up this defense for consistent big gains on Sunday. This could also be a pace-up spot for the Chargers as the Falcons rank seventh in neutral pace of play this season.
On the fast track at Mercedez Benz Superdome, I’m betting on points being scored between these pass-happy offenses against defenses who can’t get pressure. I wouldn’t be shocked if both offenses end up in the 30s here.
Verdict: Bet Over 47.5 Points
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers
The Panthers nearly pulled off the upset over the Chiefs last week, and it was thanks to one of the best games of the season from Bryce Young. The second-year quarterback has looked like a different passer since returning from being benched earlier this season, ranking 5th in PFF’s big-time throw metric since Week 8. Last week, he posted a career-high 82.8 PFF passing grade and finished with a career-high five big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play.
This looks like a matchup where Young can continue to progress as the Buccaneers rank 31st in dropback success rate. Tommy DeVito wasn’t able to take advantage last week, but I’m betting on Dave Canales having a strong gameplan for the Todd Bowles defense he saw every day in practice last year as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator.
The Buccaneers have continued to surge offensively, and now they have Mike Evans back, providing Baker Mayfield with much-needed help… in the receiving game. Carolina’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking dead last in pressure rate and 30th in pass defense DVOA, so Mayfield should have a big performance against his former team.
Still, this is the same number the Buccaneers were laying on the road against DeVito’s Giants last week, and I disagree with the market pricing having the Panthers at the same level. In what profiles as a shootout, I’ll take the points with Carolina and sprinkle some on their Moneyline – they’re live for the outright upset here.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +6
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Rams vs. Saints
The Rams ran into the buzzsaw Eagles defense on Sunday Night Football, but I expect a huge bounceback against this struggling Saints defense. New Orleans ranks just 31st in run defense DVOA, setting up for a big Kyren Williams performance, especially behind an offensive line that has gotten healthier in recent weeks.
Matthew Stafford should also have a big-time performance against a Saints defense that ranks just 28th in pass-rush win rate. When kept clean this season, Stafford has 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions with an 88.5 PFF passing grade. Compare that to two touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 28.3 PFF passing grade when under pressure.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will both have matchup advantages against a Saints secondary that has struggled, ranking 24th in PFF’s coverage grades. In particular, Kupp should torch slot corner Alontae Taylor, who ranks 120th out of 120 qualified cornerbacks in PFF’s coverage grades.
The Saints have Erik McCoy back at center after he spent much of the season on IR, but they still have one of the worst tackle duos in the league and rank 31st in pass-block win rate. The Rams rank 8th in pressure rate, but they struggled to get pressure on the Eagles’ elite offensive line last week. Expect Jared Verse and Kobie Turner to lead a much better performance upfront for Los Angeles this week.
The Rams are the healthier, better coached, more talented football team in this matchup, and I think we’re getting them at a cheap number since they got demolished by the Eagles in primetime and the Saints are off their bye week. Don’t overthink this one.
Verdict: Bet Rams -2.5 (-120 or better)
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Eagles vs. Ravens
The Eagles’ defense continues to surge as an elite unit – since Week 6, they rank top three in defensive EPA/play and success rate as Vic Fangio has found the right combination of players for this talented group. Lamar Jackson will face a huge test here, and the Eagles are better equipped than most teams to slow down Derrick Henry with the elite defensive line tandem of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis – they rank fourth in run-stop win rate.
Philadelphia’s run-heavy offense also faces a big test here. Saquon Barkley has been on fire lately, surging up the MVP odds board, but he runs into a Ravens defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run and allows the fewest yards after contact per attempt in the NFL. Keep an eye on DeVonta Smith’s practice reports this week after he missed last week’s game – the Eagles could go more pass-heavy than normal given the matchup.
I don’t have a strong take on this game early in the week, but this is a luck total with value on the under per the Action Analytics luck rankings. The Eagles have significant splits between first-half and second-half offensive output, so I’d lean towards the first-half under here.
Verdict: Lean First Half Under 24.5
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49ers vs. Bills
Injury reports rule the day in this Sunday Night Football matchup. The 49ers were blown out on the road against the Packers last week amidst a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Charvarius Ward, and Deommodore Lenoir are all listed as questionable early in the week.
The Bills are coming off their bye week, and the statuses of tight end Dalton Kincaid, wide receiver Keon Coleman, and offensive tackle Spencer Brown bear monitoring after they missed the big win over the Chiefs.
I don’t feel comfortable offering an official pick on this game given all of the injury uncertainty, but if the 49ers are healthier, this line is overinflated. San Francisco ranked top-six in both offensive and defensive DVOA before last week’s loss and has been incredibly unlucky on more than one occasion this year.
Of course, if we get positive news on Purdy and other 49ers players, this line will probably drop, so it’s a bit of a Catch-22, but I’m holding off for now.
Verdict: Lean 49ers +7
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Browns vs. Broncos
The Browns are coming off a feel-good win over the Steelers on a snowy Cleveland night, but this is still a very limited football team. Nick Chubb is clearly still hampered by his significant lower body injury last year, and while Jameis Winston is always good for a moving pregame speech, his play has been erratic.
The Broncos rank third in blitz rate and will throw tons of different pressure looks at Winston behind an offensive line that has lacked continuity this year. Winston’s turnover-worthy play rate spikes from 2.1% from a clean pocket to 8.5% when under pressure this year.
Bo Nix should also see more pressure than he has in recent weeks – while the Broncos rank first in pass-block win rate, the Browns lead the NFL in pressure rate and Myles Garrett presents tons of matchup problems for any offensive line. The Broncos have also struggled to find consistency in the run game at times this year, and the Browns lead the NFL in run-stop win rate.
While Nix continues to surge up the Offensive Rookie of the Year leaderboard, Jim Schwartz’s Cleveland defense is almost fully healthy. Jayden Daniels was the first rookie quarterback to beat Scwhartz’s defense since 2016 – can Nix make it two in one season?
I lean towards the under here with two of the best pressure units in the NFL, but I’m not rushing to bet anything in this Monday Night Football matchup.
Verdict: Lean Under 42 Points
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