Five weeks to go in the NFL regular season and we have arrived at the last week for byes as well. Here comes the home stretch.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 14 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Dec. 4, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
A New Low
Giants ATS Losing Streak
The Giants are on a 7-game ATS losing streak entering this home game against the Saints. This is the Giants' longest ATS losing streak as a franchise in the Super Bowl era. If the Giants don’t cover on Sunday, they would also own a 5-game ATS losing streak at home – their longest as a franchise since 2003 (lost 7 straight ATS at home).
Familiar Dogs
Aaron Rodgers' Big Line
In Aaron Rodgers’ 257 career starts, he has only been listed as an underdog of 6 pts or more 11 times, with his last such start coming back in 2022 for the Packers. If the Jets close above +6, it will be Rodgers' biggest underdog vs. a divisional opponent in his career.
Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets four times in his career and he is 4-0 SU. In Tua’s career, he is 11-0 SU vs. the Jets and Patriots and 1-8 SU vs. the Bills. Tua has closed as a favorite of six or more points 16 times. Miami is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in those games.
Down and Out
Bears Fire Matt Eberflus
40 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 18-22 straight up (SU) and 23-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing. Those teams had a 106-271-3 SU record (28%) before the head coaching change. They also compiled a 142-231-6 ATS (38%) record before the coaching change.
It isn’t often a team fires a head coach midseason after posting an above .500 ATS record that year. Eberflus was just the 5th head coach since 2003 to do that and the only one 3+ games above .500 ATS.
2024 Bears, Matt Eberflus: 7-4-1 ATS
2018 Browns, Hue Jackson: 5-3 ATS
2011 Chiefs, Todd Haley: 7-6 ATS
2011 Dolphins, Tony Sparano: 8-7 ATS
2005 Lions, Steve Mariucci: 6-4 ATS
No Field Advantage
Home Teams Struggle
Dead. Even. Home teams and road teams are exactly even on the moneyline entering Week 14, going 95-95 SU this year.
A $100 bettor taking all home teams this season are down $3,078, which would be the 2nd-worst year for home teams on the moneyline over the last 20 years, barely ahead of 2019 (-$3,113).
20 Years Later
Browns Trying to Break Streak
Browns have lost 20 consecutive regular season games in Pittsburgh. Their last win came back in October of 2003 behind Tim Couch. Two weeks ago the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday Night Football behind Jameis Winston. In Mike Tomlin’s career with the Steelers, no opposing QB is 2-0 SU or better against him.
Six Appeal
Chiefs ATS Losing Streak
At the moment, the Chiefs are on a 6-game ATS losing streak. This is the longest ATS losing streak of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career. Andy Reid’s last 6-game ATS losing streak came back in 2012 with the Eagles and he has never lost 7 straight games ATS in his NFL coaching career.
Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 6+ game ATS losing streak:
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs
How often do defending Super Bowl champs have a 6+ game ATS losing streak? Only three times since 1990 and two have come from Mahomes and the Chiefs.
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs
+ 1997 Packers
Every NFL Game For Week 14
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Road team success in Love vs. Goff matchups
➤Jordan Love and Jared Goff have faced off three times before this and all three times the road team got the win and cover.
Favorites dominate Thursday night games
➤Favorites on games played on a Thursday have dominated in recent years. They are 53-18 SU (75%), but only 38-33 ATS. On the moneyline, they are winning by 6.1 PPG and have a +8.5% ROI.
Love's struggles against NFC North rivals
➤In Love’s rookie year, he went 4-2 ATS vs. the NFC North, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG. 2024 has been a different story, with the Packers 0-3 ATS in Love’s starts vs. the NFC North, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 PPG.
Love is 1 of 3 QBs 0-3 ATS or worse vs. division opponents this year with Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud.
Packers' success as underdogs under LaFleur
➤The Packers are 2-2 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-12 ATS (67%) as an underdog. LaFleur is also 20-16 SU as a dog (+$1,595 on a $100 bet).
Under LaFleur, Green Bay has gone an amazing 18-5 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and 14-3 ATS as a dog of more than 3 pts.
LaFleur vs. good teams: A mixed record
➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-17 ATS (62%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – the 3rd-best mark of any head coach since his NFL coaching debut.
The issue? He is 0-3 ATS in that spot this season facing the Lions, Texans and Vikings.
LaFleur's December dominance
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 18-2 SU and 11-9 ATS, but when he is listed as an underdog, the Packers are a perfect 4-0 SUATS, covering the spread by 16.1 PPG.
Lions' performance after Thanksgiving
➤After Thanksgiving game coming up for the Lions. Detroit has won and covered four straight game after Thanksgiving (lost 3 straight SU/ATS prior). Since 2005, Lions are 6-13 SU, 10-9 ATS the game after Thanksgiving.
Goff’s strong home performance
➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 4-2 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 34-20-2 ATS (63%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
After the Lions fail to cover in their previous game, Goff is 15-4 ATS with Detroit, including 10-2 ATS at home.
Goff's dominance against NFC North teams
➤With the Lions, Jared Goff is 15-6 ATS vs. NFC North. Since 2018 with the Lions and Rams, Goff is 25-12-1 ATS vs. his own division, 2nd-best mark of 123 QBs behind just Dak Prescott.
Goff’s 15-6 ATS mark vs. NFC North is the second best of any QB last 20 years behind just Aaron Rodgers.
Lions' dominance against the first-half spread
➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 36-12-1 against the first-half spread – the best mark of any team in the NFL. When that game is against a NFC North opponent, the Lions are 12-2-1 1H ATS.
Titans' struggles after a win
➤Last week, the Titans were looking for something called a winning streak – that didn’t happen.
Since the start of last year, Tennessee is now 0-8 against the spread the week after a SU win (0-9 ATS last 9 games). They are the only team in the NFL without a cover after a SU win in that span – every other NFL team has at least two covers in that spot. Ryan Tannehill is the last QB to cover after a SU win for the Titans.
It may not be above .500 ATS, but after a SU loss, Tennessee is 8-10-1 ATS since the start of last season. When Tennesse has faced a divisional opponent in that span, they are 3-8 ATS.
Titans' poor ATS record this season
➤Titans are just 2-10 ATS this season, the worst ATS record in the NFL this year and this week they are listed as a favorite against the Jaguars.
Teams in game 13 or later with an ATS win pct of 20% or less, are 4-0 SU/ATS over the last decade. But how rare is it when they are listed as a favorite? Tennessee will be just the 6th since 2000. Overall since 1990, these teams have been good bets at 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.
The worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007.
Will Levis' recent 2H improvement
➤In three straight games, Will Levis has posted 10+ pts in the second half, covering the 2H spread in all 3 games. Levis has three 2H ATS covers the last three weeks. He was 2-13 2H ATS entering that stretch.
Tennessee is now 9-26-1 against the second half spread over the last two calendar years.
Doug Pederson's underdog success
➤Let’s look at a few angles surrounding Jaguars coach Doug Pederson.
As an underdog, Pederson is 38-28 ATS, including 6-2 ATS this season. As a favorite, he is 31-37 ATS in his career, including 1-3 ATS this year.
Mac Jones has started two games for Jacksonville this year, the Jags have scored 13 total pts in both games. In his career, Mac Jones is 5-17 ATS when listed as an underdog, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB since 2003. If he starts and doesn’t cover this week, he would be 282nd ATS of 283 QBs, ahead of just Jay Cutler.
Will Levis' struggles in divisional games
➤Can we make it 2 in a row? Will Levis is 1-5 SU/ATS in divisional games after beating the Texans on the road two weeks ago. Levis has been a favorite vs. an AFC South opponent twice and lost both games outright, scoring 17 pts or less in both games.
As a favorite, Levis is 1-3 SU/ATS, with his lone win coming against the Panthers. As an underdog of 7 pts or less or an underdog, Levis is 3-12 ATS in his career.
Levis' under trends
➤Will Levis is 8-9-1 to under in 18 starts. 8-2-1 to under when the home team scores 26 or less, 0-7 to under when they score 27 or more.
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Jets' struggles since Week 4
➤Since Week 4, the Jets are 1-8 SU/ATS, the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. Of the 33 QBs to have at 200 plays since Week 4, Aaron Rodgers is 31st in EPA/play, 31st in success rate, 31st in CPOE and 26th in aDOT.
Jets on the brink of playoff elimination
➤With a loss to the Dolphins this week, the Jets would be eliminated from playoff contention for the 14th consecutive season – they would be just the 7th team since the merger to miss the playoffs in 14 straight years, most recently the 2003-19 Browns, 2000-16 Bills and 1991-04 Bengals.
Jets' sudden underdog status
➤Jets are 6.5-pt underdogs against the Dolphins this week after being listed as a favorite in six straight games.
The Jets were the first team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in 9 of their first 12 games and be 3-9 or worse.
Aaron Rodgers as a significant underdog
➤In Aaron Rodgers’ 257 career starts, he has only been listed as an underdog of 6 pts or more 11 times, with his last such start coming back in 2022 for the Packers.
This will be just the 2nd time he could close +6 or higher against a divisional opponent in his entire career – he was +6 against the Bears and Mitch Trubisky back in 2018, a 24-17 loss in Soldier Field.
Jeff Ulbrich's struggles as Jets' coach
➤Jeff Ulbrich has begun his Jets stint 1-6 ATS. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
Jets' historical struggles vs. the Dolphins
➤Historically the Jets have struggled when facing the Dolphins. They are 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS since 2016, their least profitable opponent ATS in that span.
Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets four times in his career and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 8.6 PPG.
In Tua’s career, he is 11-0 SU vs. the Jets and Patriots and 1-8 SU vs. the Bills.
Dolphins' success vs. teams below .500
➤Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-18 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 22-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
Tua is 22-8 SU, 19-11 ATS vs. teams below .500 in his career, including 14-7 ATS at home.
Tua's dominance as a favorite
➤Overall in Tua Tagovailoa’s pro career, he has closed as a favorite of six or more points 16 times. Miami is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in those games, with its only SU loss coming to the Titans on Monday Night Football last season. That makes the Dolphins 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS outside of that night/primetime window in this spot.
Teams with line movement this season
➤How have teams performed when getting steam from the opening to closing lines this year? 84-91-3 ATS. The two worst teams in the NFL in that spot? The Giants and Jets, who are both 0-5 ATS, the two worst teams in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins' struggles indoors
➤Kirk Cousins makes his return to Minnesota this week to face the Vikings, a franchise he spent six seasons with.
Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 16-30 ATS playing indoor games, including 7-16 ATS over the last three seasons. Since 2020, Cousins is last of 92 QBs ATS playing indoor games.
Cousins' underdog woes
➤The role as an underdog hasn’t been a good one for Cousins. Since 2022, he is 3-9 ATS as an underdog (2-10 SU), the 4th-worst mark of any QB in that span.
Falcons' second-quarter struggles
➤Falcons have had issues against the 2nd quarter spread before heading to halftime. This season they are 4-8 2Q ATS, tied for the worst mark in the NFL – over the last three seasons, they are 16-30 2Q ATS, worst mark in the NFL.
Cousins' under trend in 2024
➤2024 has been a different season for Cousins. In his 12 starts, the under is 8-4, T-2nd best mark to the under for any QB this year. Cousins’ last four starts have gone under the total. Since Nov. 1, Cousins and Kyler Murray are the only QBs 4-0 to the under or better.
In Cousins’ career, he is 87-73-1 to the over, the 7th-best mark to the over for any QB over the last 20 years.
Cousins vs. a blitz-heavy defense
➤Cousins faces a blitz-heavy Vikings defense this week. When Cousins gets sacked 3+ times, Atlanta is 1-3 SU this year, losing three straight games and Kirk is 1-5 SU when getting sacked 3+ times over the last two seasons.
Younghoe Koo's struggles indoors
➤Younghoe Koo has struggled this season, but oddly enough inside of a dome, Koo is just 1-of-4 on FGs this season, his three misses are tied for the most by any team in the NFL indoors with the … Vikings, who are 13-16 on FGs indoors.
NFC North dominance vs. non-divisional teams
➤Over the last two seasons, the NFC North is 52-30-3 ATS (63%) vs. non-divisional opponents entering Week 14. This year, they are 24-12 ATS (67%), which is the best ATS win pct for any division vs. the rest of the league over a full season since the 2013 NFC West.
Darnold as a favorite
➤In his NFL career, Darnold has closed as an FG favorite or higher nine times, his teams are 8-5 SU, but just 4-8-1 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 4.7 PPG.
Vikings' success in one-score games
➤One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 24-9 SU (72.7%) in one-score games under O’Connell, the 3rd-best win pct for any head coach in NFL history. In 2024, the Vikings are 7-1 SU in those close games.
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Giants' ATS losing streak
➤The Giants are on a 7-game ATS losing streak entering this home game against the Saints. This is the Giants longest ATS losing streak as a franchise in the Super Bowl era.
If the Giants don’t cover on Sunday, they would also own a 5-game ATS losing streak at home – their longest as a franchise since 2003 (lost 7 straight ATS at home).
Giants' struggles on both sides of the spread
➤Not only are the Giants on a 7-game ATS losing streak, but also a 7-game SU losing streak. Giants are the first team since the 2021 Jaguars to be on such a SU/ATS losing streak and just the 2nd team since the beginning of the 2018 season. Teams on such a streak are 12-5 ATS in the Wild Card era.
Giants on extended prep time
➤Giants are on extended prep time entering this matchup with the Saints. Brian Daboll is 6-4 ATS on extended prep as Giants head coach, he is over .500 ATS with both Tommy DeVito (2-1 ATS) and Daniel Jones (4-3 ATS).
Giants' rest after divisional loss
➤The Giants are coming off a loss on Thanksgiving on the road in Dallas and now return home on some extended rest. Since 2011, teams off a divisional loss, who have 10+ days rest before their next game at home are 30-50-2 ATS (38%).
Derek Carr’s struggles in cold conditions
➤Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium is expected to be about 40-45° and outdoors, which isn’t a great sign for Derek Carr. When he’s a favorite in these conditions in his career, he is just 1-4 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.4 PPG – with his last such start coming back in the 2020 regular season.
Carr's struggles against high-scoring defenses
➤Giants, like the Rams last week, are in the bottom half of the league in PPG allowed on defense. Carr has struggled in his career facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season – he's 37-61-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more.
Of the 269 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot. He’s finished above .500 ATS once in his 11-year career.
When he faces a defense allowing fewer than 21 PPG, he’s 35-22 ATS – 5th-most profitable QB. Brady, Brees, Peyton, Josh Allen, Derek Carr.
Carr’s poor record as a favorite
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been kind to Derek Carr. He is 22-39-2 ATS (36%) in his career, the worst mark for any QB since 2003. Carr hasn’t finished a season .500 ATS or better as a favorite since 2018 and above .500 ATS since 2016.
As a road favorite, Carr is 1-14-1 ATS in his last 16 starts in that spot, with his lone cover coming against the Colts – an indoor team, like the Saints.
Big favorites: a mixed bag in 2024
➤The biggest point spread on the board this week is Panthers at Eagles.
Big favorites in 2024 have gone both ways. Double-digit favorites started the season 5-0 ATS through 11 weeks. In Weeks 12 and 13, double-digit favorites have gone 0-3 ATS.
Panthers' long streak as underdogs
➤This will be the Panthers' 33rd consecutive game as underdogs, including being an underdog in 42 of their last 43 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT).
They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Oct. 1, 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
As of now, the Panthers are 10 games away from trying the modern record for consecutive games as an underdog with the 2007-10 Rams, who did so in 43 straight games.
Panthers' recent ATS success
➤The Panthers have covered the spread in four straight games after going 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games before the mini streak.
Carolina hasn’t covered five straight games since 2013, when they covered six straight behind Cam Newton.
Bryce Young's struggles as a heavy underdog
➤In Bryce Young’s career in the pros, he’s been listed as an underdog of over a TD five times, he is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS – 1-0 ATS vs. Chiefs and 0-4 ATS vs. all other teams.
The problem in those five games has mainly been Bryce’s defense, who is allowing 35 PPG in those five games.
Eagles' tough defense against young quarterbacks
➤The Eagles have one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL. Bryce Young has faced three teams allowing 180 pass yards or fewer entering the matchup, Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS in those games, with Bryce scoring just 41 pts in three games (13.7 PPG).
Eagles' first-quarter struggles
➤Another game, another scoreless 1Q for the Eagles last week – they are 2-10 against 1Q spread this yr, the worst mark in the NFL. Of course, then they scored 14 pts in the 2Q against the Ravens and led 14-12 at the half. Philly is 10-2 against the 2Q spread this year, T-best mark in the NFL with the Lions.
Panthers' unexpected ATS win streak
➤In the category of unexpected, the Panthers are currently on a 4-game ATS win streak, which is tied for the longest active streak for any team in the NFL with the Broncos and Eagles.
Since 2010, teams with a win pct of 25% or less, on a 4+ game ATS win streak are just 1-6 SU/ATS.
The Panthers aren’t the first team in this spot in 2024 (25% or less, 4+ game ATS win streak) with the Jaguars also doing it in November. The first time since 2009 we’ve had two different “bad” teams on this type of streak.
Historically rare ATS streaks in the Wild Card era
➤This will be the first game in the Wild Card era (since 1990), where both teams are on a 4+ game ATS win streak, but one has a win pct of 25% or less and the other has a win pct of 80% or more.
Hurts' struggles as a big favorite
➤The role as a big favorite hasn’t been kind to Jalen Hurts in his career.
As a favorite of over a full TD, Hurts is 3-9-1 ATS, he’s lost five straight games ATS in that spot, including 1-9 ATS in his last ten starts as a “big” favorite.
Least Profitable QBs ATS as Above TD Favorite Since 2020 (of 43 QBs)
43. Patrick Mahomes: 13-23-1 ATS
42. Jalen Hurts: 3-9-1 ATS
41. Joe Burrow: 2-6 ATS
Impact of overtime on team performance
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Bucs and Panthers are coming off an OT game last week and are playing on 8 days' rest or less.
Those teams are 110-144 SU (43%) and 111-140-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
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Browns' struggles in Pittsburgh
➤ The Browns have lost 20 consecutive regular season games in Pittsburgh. Their last win game back in October of 2003 behind Tim Couch.
Steelers facing divisional fatigue
➤Steelers are playing their 3rd consecutive game vs. a divisional opponent this week, including facing the Browns now twice in the last three weeks.
Facing three straight divisional opponents can take it out of teams, especially good ones. Last 30 years, teams with a win pct of 66%+ are 65% SU in this spot, but 49% ATS, when they are 75%+, they are 67% SU and just 45% ATS (36-44 ATS).
Browns' recent win over the Steelers
➤ The Browns beat the Steelers just two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football behind Jameis Winston. In Mike Tomlin’s career with the Steelers, no opposing QB is 2-0 SU or better against him.
Tomlin's success as an underdog
➤The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as underdogs this season – a true hallmark of Tomlin’s career. Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65%) as an underdog, .500 ATS or better in eight straight seasons. In division games, he is 26-9-1 ATS as an underdog – but when Tomlin is listed as a favorite, it’s a different story.
Tomlin is 32-40-1 ATS as a favorite in that same 8-yr stretch, but a more promising 12-8 ATS over the last three seasons. The issue is the size of the line. As a favorite of above 4 pts, Tomlin is 10-25 ATS since 2017, the least profitable coach in the NFL.
Underdog success in AFC North divisional games
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They're 50-31 ATS (62%) since 2018, the best of any division, they're .500 ATS or better in 7 straight seasons and they are 28-16 ATS since 2021.
Steelers' dominance in one-score games
➤Nobody plays one-score games like the Steelers. This season, they are 6-3 SU/ATS in those games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 37-14 SU in one-score games, 2nd-best mark in NFL, behind just the Chiefs. They are 35-16-1 ATS in those games, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, too.
Browns' short-rest success under Stefanski
➤Under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have been much better than many would expect when having to play on short rest. They are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS on short rest under Stefanski, covering the spread by 3 PPG, when he’s listed as an underdog on short rest, Cleveland is 2-0 ATS.
Raiders' struggle to get ahead
➤The Raiders fall behind in every single game. In all 12 of their games this season, they have been down by 10+ pts, they are the first team to do that since the 1986 Colts and just the third team ever with the 1972 Patriots. The ‘86 Colts fell behind by double-digits in 16 straight games.
Raiders' turnover troubles
➤Not only are the Raiders falling behind, but they aren’t creating any turnovers on defense. Through 12 games, they have just 5 takeaways, the fewest since 1990 with the 2018 49ers.
Brock Bowers making history
➤Entering Week 14, Brock Bowers leads the NFL in receptions with 84. No rookie since the merger has led the NFL in receptions for a full season and the most receptions for a rookie TE in NFL history was Sam LaPorta last year with 86.
Brock Bowers was 50-1 to win NFL OROY entering the season at MGM, he was 35-1 entering Week 10, 22-1 entering Week 13, and is now down to 12-1.
A different Baker Mayfield
➤A different Baker. Between 2018-22, he was 29-41-1 ATS, the third worst mark in the NFL. With the Bucs, he is 19-12 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, behind only Bo Nix and Jared Goff.
As a member of the Bucs, Baker is 7-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread in his previous game, covering the spread by 6.7 PPG.
Mayfield's struggles as a favorite
➤Last week the Bucs were 6.5-pt road favorites and barely squeaked out a win in overtime, failing to cover the spread. In his career, Mayfield is 17-28-1 ATS as a favorite, the 3rd-worst mark of 98 QBs since he was drafted.
Raiders on the road
➤Raiders are traveling across the country to face the Bucs. Road teams who are based in MST or PST, playing a game in EST are 88-53-4 ATS (62%) since 2019, including 11-8-1 ATS this season.
The impact of overtime games
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Bucs and Panthers are coming off an OT game last week and are playing on 8 days' rest or less.
Those teams are 110-144 SU (43%) and 111-140-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
Raiders after Chiefs matchup
➤Raiders are coming off a hard-fought game against the Chiefs on Black Friday last week. Since 2017, they are 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS the week after facing the Chiefs, failing to cover the spread by 8.5 PPG.
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Cardinals' Defensive Dominance at Home
➤In the Cardinals' last three home games, dating back to October 1, they have not allowed a single TD to the opposing team – a total of 26 drives by opponents without a TD (6 by the Jets, 12 by the Bears and 8 by the Chargers).
Cardinals' Struggles Against NFC West Rivals
➤Since the beginning of the 2022 season, the Cardinals are 4-11 ATS vs. the NFC West, the least profitable team ATS in the NFL against divisional opponents.
Kyler Murray is just 9-15-2 ATS vs. NFC West in his career – 4-2-1 ATS vs. the 49ers and 5-13-1 ATS vs. the Seahawks and Rams.
Kyler has faced Geno Smith four times in his career and he is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 8.5 PPG.
Kyler's Early Season Success
➤Kyler’s teams historically do better earlier in the season…
16-20-2 ATS in November or later
26-14 ATS in September and October
Kyler's Road Unders
➤Kyler road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 25-12-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked 2nd of 277 QBs over the last 20 years in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite. 22-18 to the over in his career.
Seahawks' Brutal Travel Schedule
➤ The Seahawks will be only the 11th team since 2003 to play a road game in New York against the Jets or Giants and then have to travel cross country to play again on the road in MST or PST. Those teams are failing to cover the spread by 5.8 PPG and already lost once this year when the Patriots traveled to San Francisco.
Just a brutal travel spot for Seattle. In Week 12 they are at home vs. Cardinals, then in Week 13 they traveled cross country to the Jets and now in Week 14, they cross back west home to face the Cardinals again.
Teams to go from PST to EST back to either MST or PST are 30-58-1 ATS (34%) over the last decade, failing to cover the spread by 3.6 PPG.
Cardinals' Consistency at Home
➤At home this season the Cardinals have done a great job quarter to quarter keeping consistency.
1Q ATS at home = 5-1 ATS
2Q ATS at home = 4-2 ATS
3Q ATS at home = 4-2 ATS
4Q ATS at home = 5-1 ATS
Cardinals' Disappointing Comeback Losses
➤Cardinals led the Vikings 19-6 last week and ended up losing on the road. The Cardinals are just 8-5 SU since the start of 2022 when leading by 10+ pts at any point – the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL behind just the Raiders and Bears.
Seahawks' Long Streak as Underdogs
➤If the Seahawks close as underdogs this week it will be their 8th consecutive game as a dog, last being a favorite vs. the Giants on October 6th.
This is Seattle’s longest consecutive streak as an underdog since a 16-game dog streak back in 2010-11.
Arizona's Pass Rush Against Geno Smith
➤Arizona’s pass rush has been pretty good this year, T-9th in sacks and doing so with a real lack of QB pressures and a lack of a high blitz pct, but their defensive sack pct of 4.3% (opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense) might give Geno trouble.
In Geno’s career, he is 27-19-1 ATS when facing a defense with below a 4% sack rate and 9-17-3 ATS when facing a defense with a 4% or higher sack rate, which ranks 240th of 245 QBs ATS since 2003.
Fading the Home Team in Divisional Playoff Races
➤When two divisional opponents are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season, fading the home team has been a profitable strategy.
Buffalo's Historic Scoring Streak
➤ The Bills are on a historic scoring run right now, putting up 30+ pts in six straight games.
Since 2000, only five teams have had a longer 30+ pt streak than Buffalo’s: 2020 Bucs, 2012 Broncos, 2010 Patriots, 2007 Patriots and 2000 Rams.
Since 1990, three QBs have had a 6+ game streak of 30+ pts, while on a 7+ game SU win streak: Josh Allen (once), Aaron Rodgers (once) and Tom Brady (four times).
Josh Allen's Public Side Popularity
➤Over the last two years, no QB has been more popular to take for bettors than Josh Allen. Including the playoffs, he is just 14-13 ATS as a public side, but his 27 starts as such are the most of any QB.
Allen's Success on Normal Rest
➤Allen has succeeded on normal rest in his career. Allen is 36-22-3 ATS on 7 days rest (10th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot). He’s 10-12-1 ATS on short rest and 11-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
This week, Buffalo is technically on normal rest coming off an SNF game, but FWIW, when Allen has had to play on the road on short rest, Buffalo is just 4-7-1 ATS.
Bills' Road Success from EST to PST
➤Bills are on a 7-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 SU and are traveling across the country on a bit of a short week coming off SNF.
Teams who travel from EST to play a road game in PST are 84-58-6 ATS (59%) since 2016, including 21-12-1 ATS in the last two seasons.
Since 2019, road favorites on a 3+ game SU win streak having to make the trip from EST to PST are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS.
Allen's Strong Performance Outside of EST
➤Allen has started 22 games outside of the EST in his NFL career, he is 14-8 ATS and 6-1 SU in his last seven starts west away from home like he is in L.A. this week.
Josh Allen's Dominance vs. Teams Under .500
➤Since 2020, Josh Allen is 29-4 SU vs. teams under .500, winning by 13.4 PPG.
Even being listed as such a big favorite so frequently, he is the 4th-most profitable QB on the moneyline in that spot since 2020. The 2nd-most profitable is Baker Mayfield, who is also in this spot this week.
McVay and Stafford as Favorites
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 28-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 6-15 SU as underdogs.
Stafford's Struggles as an Underdog
➤Stafford needs to turn the clock back to his Super Bowl run. He went 3-0 SU as a dog that year. Since then, he’s 3-15 SU as a dog. Career, he’s 31-80 SU as an underdog — 28%.
Since 2022, Stafford has been the third worst QB in ML profit ahead of only Bryce Young and Mac Jones.
McVay's Success Before Big Matchups
➤The Rams-49ers games are always big circle spots on the calendar and under Sean McVay, L.A. has done a good job before the big matchup, they are 11-5 SU the week before, including 3-0 SU/ATS when listed as an underdog.
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Coaching Change Impact
➤40 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 18-22 straight up (SU) and 23-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing.
Those teams had a 106-271-3 SU record (28%) before the head coaching change. They also compiled a 142-231-6 ATS (38%) record before the coaching change.
It isn’t often a team fires a head coach midseason after posting an above .500 ATS record that year. Eberflus was just the 5th head coach since 2003 to do that and the only one 3+ games above .500 ATS.
2024 Bears, Matt Eberflus: 7-4-1 ATS
2018 Browns, Hue Jackson: 5-3 ATS
2011 Chiefs, Todd Haley: 7-6 ATS
2011 Dolphins, Tony Sparano: 8-7 ATS
2005 Lions, Steve Mariucci: 6-4 ATS
NFC North Dominance
➤The NFC North has been a juggernaut this season – well, every team aside from the Bears.
The NFC North is 28-8 SU (78%) and 24-12 ATS (67%) vs. teams outside of their division entering Week 14.
Through a full season, this would be the best SU win pct for any division in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the 4th-best ATS win pct for any division and the best since the 2013 NFC West.
49ers Struggling in the Second Half
➤The 49ers are 2-10 against the second half spread this season and they are 3-13 2H ATS in their last 16 total games dating back to last year.
San Francisco is the 2nd-worst team 2H ATS this year ahead of just the Texans.
On the other side, Caleb Williams has been one of the best 2H ATS QBs this season, going 9-3 2H ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only Josh Allen.
49ers' Recent Struggles
➤It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 8-10 SU in their last 18 total games.
Impact of Facing the Lions
➤Bears lost to the Lions on Thanksgiving last week. Teams after facing the Lions are 2-9 ATS this season and 16-28 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
Bears' Road Woes Outside Primetime
➤Bears haven’t had much success on the road outside of primetime windows.
In the Bears' last five road games outside of a Sunday, they are 4-1 SU dating back to the middle of the 2021 season and they are 7-3 SU since 2018.
On the road, on a Sunday, the Bears have lost 19 consecutive games dating back to the day after Christmas in 2021 – won by Nick Foles – Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Tyson Bagent, and Caleb Williams have all lost since Nick’s win.
Shanahan's Struggles with Extended Prep
➤Kyle Shanahan is 77-62 SU (55.4%) in his career with the 49ers. When his opponent is on extended prep time before their matchup, he is just 18-19 SU.
49ers' Recent Slide
➤The 49ers are reeling. They’ve lost three straight games outright, four consecutive games ATS, they’ve scored 20 total pts in their last two games and have lost by 25+ in back-to-back weeks.
Since 1990, teams on a 4+ game ATS losing streak, after scoring 10 pts or less in b2b games are just 35-50-2 ATS.
Mahomes' Struggles Against AFC West
➤Mahomes is 34-5 SU vs. AFC West opponents in his career. The one caveat? He is 0-3-1 ATS vs. AFC West this season and 4-10-1 ATS over the last three seasons vs. his division.
That 4-10-1 ATS mark is the worst for any QB in the NFL over that span.
Chiefs' ATS Losing Streak
➤At the moment, the Chiefs are on a 6-game ATS losing streak.
This is the longest ATS losing streak of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career.
Andy Reid’s last 6-game ATS losing streak came back in 2012 with the Eagles and in his NFL coaching career he has never lost 7 straight games ATS.
Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 6+ game ATS losing streak:
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs
How often do defending Super Bowl champs have a 6+ game ATS losing streak? Only three times since 1990 and two have come from Mahomes and the Chiefs.
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs
+ 1997 Packers
Mahomes' Record vs. Chargers
➤Patrick Mahomes is 9-2 SU, 4-5-2 ATS in his career vs. Chargers, including 6-1 SU and 2-4-1 ATS vs. Justin Herbert.
Mahomes’ six wins vs. Herbert is his 2nd-most vs. any other QB. Most is vs. Derek Carr, going 9-1 SU.
Mahomes vs. Defenses Allowing 17 PPG or Fewer
➤Mahomes has faced 15 teams allowing 17 PPG or fewer in his career. He is 13-2 SU, with his only two losses coming to Josh Allen at home in KC in the calendar year of 2024.
Mahomes' Second Half Struggles
➤Mahomes is 1-5 2H ATS in his last six starts, before this stretch, he was 13-1 2H ATS in his previous 14 starts.
Mahomes' Home Under Performance
➤In his career at Arrowhead, Mahomes is 40-26-1(61%) to the under, the 4th-most profitable QB to the under in his home starts since he was drafted, including 12-6-1 to the under when he faces an AFC West opponent.
Chargers' Under Trend
➤Chargers are 8-4 to the under in the full game total this season and 20-9 to the under since the start of last year.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 29-17-1 in games between the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he's now 18-7 to the under since the start of last season – that includes an 18-5 record to the under in his last 23 starts.
Herbert's Performance as Underdog
➤As an underdog of more than 3 pts, Justin Herbert is 10-2-1 ATS in his pro career, including 6-1-1 ATS vs. the AFC West.
In Herbert’s career, he has made 20 starts at night. He is 11-9 ATS, but 5-9 ATS when he’s either a favorite or an underdog of 3 pts or less and 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 or more.
Chiefs' Struggles in 1st Quarter
➤The Chiefs are 3-9 against the 1Q spread this year, tied for the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Eagles.
Chiefs' Close-Game Success
➤Chiefs are just the 11th team in NFL history to win nine games in a season by 7 points or fewer. The only team to do it 10 times was the 1978 Oilers.
Mahomes' Struggles as Big Favorite
➤Mahomes is now 24-39-2 ATS (-$1,688) as a favorite of 3.5 pts or more since 2020, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL by a large margin. The 2nd-worst is Lamar Jackson at -$965 on a $100/game wager.
Mahomes' Night Game Success
➤In 2024, Mahomes is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in night games. In his career, he is 27-19-1 ATS. Since his rookie year, that 27-19-1 ATS mark is third best of any QB in night games behind just Jared Goff and Kenny Pickett.
Mahomes has won 7 straight night games outright dating back to last season.
Mahomes and Reid on Extended Rest
➤Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game. Mahomes is 30-7 SU, 19-17-1 ATS on extended rest (eight or more days). Reid is 64-27 SU (70%) and 51-39-1 ATS (57%) on extended rest dating back to 2003.
On extended rest (eight or more days), Reid and the Chiefs are 27-4 SU since 2019. The four QBs who beat them since 2019: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff.
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Monday Night Football Overs
➤Monday Night Football overs are now 12-4 so far this season, going over the total by 6+ PPG.
The 2nd-best year for overs on MNF in the last 20 years behind just 2008 (12-3-2 to the over)
Bengals As Road Favorites
➤Another week, another game as a favorite for Cincinnati after closing as favorites vs. Steelers last week and losing outright. The 4-8 Bengals are road favorites on MNF this week.
Over the last 15 years, the Bengals are just the 9th team in their 13th game or later to have a win pct of 35% or less, lose as a favorite the previous week and be favored again. Those teams went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS. The last such team was the 2021 Seahawks.
Joe Burrow's MNF Struggles
➤This will be Joe Burrow’s fourth career start on MNF. He is 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in those games, being listed as a favorite in all three starts.
If the Bengals don’t cover this week, he would join only Case Keenum since 2003 with 4+ MNF starts and no covers.
Cowboys' MNF Performance
➤Since 2003, the Cowboys have played 27 total games on MNF. When Dak Prescott starts for Dallas they are 6-1 ATS, when he doesn’t they are 7-13 ATS.
Post-Thanksgiving Cowboys
➤Last 20 years, Dallas is 13-7 SU, 9-10-1 ATS the game after Thanksgiving. The game after Thanksgiving at home, the Cowboys have won six consecutive games SU in the last 20 years (4-2 ATS).
Cowboys have won 8 of their last 10 games SU the game after Thanksgiving
Cooper Rush's ATS Record
➤Cooper Rush has made ten career starts and he is 7-3 ATS. When he’s listed as an underdog of 7+ pts he is 2-3 ATS, in any other spot, he is 5-0 ATS.
Cowboys' Struggles in the Third Quarter
➤Cowboys have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 3-9 ATS in the third quarter, the worst mark in the NFL with the Saints and Browns. Since the start of last season, Dallas is just 8-21 ATS in the third quarter.
Joe Burrow's TD-to-INT Ratio
➤Joe Burrow has 30 pass TD and 5 INT through twelve games this year — the 7th QB with 30+ and 5 or fewer.
Here are their records:
+ Burrow 2024 = 4-8
+ Mahomes 2020 = 11-1
+ Rodgers 2020 = 9-3
+ Brees 2018 = 10-2
+ Rodgers 2014 = 9-3
+ Rodgers 2011 = 12-0
+ Brady 2007 = 12-0
Bengals' Struggles After Scoring 30+
➤The Bengals' defense has let down the offense so far this year. This season, teams who score 30+ pts are 80-7 SU — Bengals have 4 of those 7 losses. Since Nov. 1, they are 28-2 SU — Bengals have both losses.
Bengals' Struggles in One-Score Games
➤One-score games have not been kind to Cincinnati this season. They are 1-7 SU in one-score games, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL. Dating back to last year, the Bengals are 3-10 SU in their last 13 one-score games.
Burrow's Second-Half Struggles
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 43-27-1 (63%) against the second-half spread. He's 9-13 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
He is 32-15-1 2H ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents and only 11-12 2H ATS vs. AFC North.
Scheduling Disadvantages for Bengals and Jets
➤The Bengals and Jets didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers this year. Since 2000, no team has had to play on a Thursday after back-to-back road games, with one of those two road games being a game played on a Monday.
In 2000, the Buccaneers had to do this, facing the Lions at home on Thursday, but they had a bye week before the game – not so much with Cincinnati and New York.
Jets: Week 1 at SF (MNF), Week 2 at TEN, Week 3 vs. NE (TNF)
Bengals: Week 14 at DAL (MNF), Week 15 at TEN, Week 16 vs. CLE (TNF)
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Since 2019, divisional road underdogs are cashing at a 57.1% rate.
Matches: GB, LAC, SEA, NYJ, JAC, CLE
System: A divisional game PRO system looking at unders later in the season. For this system, higher totals are important — need a range of 44.5-60.
Matches: GB/DET, NYJ/MIA, SEA/ARI
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System: Rest can help losing streaks.
Matches: NYG, LVR, CHI, CIN
System: This system looks as struggling offenses recently and a way to back them in the first half.
Matches: ATL, SF
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