Our NFL Week 14 Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 12128-75-6 (62.7%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
In Week 13, the unlucky teams meeting our criteria went 1-1 ATS. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 15-14-1 (51.7%) ATS record on the season.
The two Luck Totals in Week 13 were both Luck Unders that stayed under the closing total. That moves Luck Unders to 10-9-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals are 14-9-0 (60.9%) this season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 29-23-1 (55.7%) on the season.
For NFL Week 14, there is one Luck Matchup and two Luck Unders. Let's take a look.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 14 Discussion
As a reminder, we've hit an inflection point in the season where three things happen in the Luck Rankings.
First, the Luck Gap% threshold reduces from 50% to 30%, which should make sense. As time goes along, luck tends to regress to the mean, so it's harder to have big luck-gap games.
At the same time, with more data, we have more evidence that teams have been lucky, so we'd still expect the narrowing threshold to provide value as evidence piles up.
Second, and maybe most importantly, Luck Matchups suddenly hit some major trends with this change.
Unlucky teams in games meeting the 30% threshold criteria from Week 13 to the second-to-last week of the regular season (we always ignore the last week due to motivation reasons) are an astonishing 26-4-1 (85.5%) ATS since 2018. That includes:
- 12-0-1 ATS since 2022, the season I first started using my Luck Rankings formula
- 16-1-0 ATS since 2018 if the unlucky team is also on the road
Finally, the third major point of note is that the threshold for a Luck Over reduces from a Luck Total of +10 to +5. Luck Overs are much more rare since games tend to get bet up, which requires more stringent thresholds than Luck Unders.
But as a result, Luck Overs after Week 11 are 29-18-1 (61.5%) since 2018. Add that to the early season Luck Over criteria (Luck Total above +10 after Week 3), which is 17-5-0 (77.3%) to the over, and we have Luck Overs at a 46-23-1 (66.4%) record.
This is an exciting time of year for the Luck Rankings, and hopefully this season ends on another strong note!
NFL Luck Rankings Week 14 Games
Browns vs. Steelers
Luck Difference: 26
Luck Gap: 34.5%
In a rematch of a Week 12 snow game in Cleveland, these AFC North rivals head to Pittsburgh for part two.
Cleveland was a 3.5-point underdog in the first game and not only covered, but won outright. Yes, Week 13 was also played, but with the Steelers lucky cover and the Browns unlucky failure to cover, at best we'd just neutralize Week 12 with Week 13.
Additionally, with home-field advantage dwindling to around 1.5 points and the Steelers likely on the lower end of team-specific HFAs, then 6.5 points grades out a bit too long by these newer standards if we considered the Week 12 closing spread "correct."
Now, that's a starting point because there have been some personnel changes. Namely, Steelers linebacker Alex Highsmith is likely to return this week. Highsmith has been playing at a very high level and will give a solid boost to this Steelers defensive unit. That said, big-play threat Calvin Austin III is questionable after ending up in the concussion protocol after taking a couple of hard shots vs. Cincinnati in Week 13.
On the Browns side, it remains to be seen if WR Cedric Tillman will return from the concussion protocol after missing Week 13 against the Denver Broncos.
Of note, the Browns do hold slight edges in both weighted early down success rate (wEDSR) and QB coverage matchups. By this, I don't mean the Browns are better, just that they should get a slight percentage boost relative to the Steelers in their baseline expected efficiencies on offense.
I'd be in on the 6.5, but there is a 7 floating out there at -120 juice and I'm curious if the market, with 74% of tickets on the Steelers, will fully move to the 7.
Based off historic hit rates of the favorite landing on exactly seven points when they are also favored by about 7 points (I used six to eight points), the +6.5 (-105) at ESPN BET or FanDuel is about the same as the +7 (-120) at Caesars. If the best you can get on +6.5 is -110, then I'd opt for the +7 at -120 if that's available to you.
That said, you can also just wait things out, like me, since I make this line closer to 5 points. I'll closely monitor the market to see where this goes to avoid losing at least the 6.5.
Verdict: Wait, but monitor line movement closely.
Jaguars vs. Titans
Luck Total: -7.3
This gross AFC South matchup has a Luck Total of -7.3, with both teams contributing to that under. The Jaguars' Luck Team Total sits at -4.1, while Tennessee's is -3.2.
The Titans are coming off three straight games that have gone over the Expected Score, with each of the past two averaging about nine points more than was expected based off the game situation and team strengths on every play from those games.
Jacksonville games have also gone over the Expected Score total in each of the past two, so the line could be inflated here just from games from both teams producing higher scores than they should have lately.
That was pretty evident as the total dropped quickly from 42 on Sunday to 39.5, where it sits now. That means it crossed through the key numbers of 41 and 40, and while 39 isn't exactly irrelevant, it's certainly far less of an important number than those two. And 38 is even less so, with 37 being the next key number, but the total should definitely be above that, so it's a meaningless key number for our purposes here.
Thus, I'll just pass as we're sitting in a bit of a no-man's land — unless this bumps back up to at least 40.
Verdict: Pass
Bengals vs. Cowboys
Luck Total: -8.4
I'll keep this one short and sweet. The bets, and even more so the money, are coming in on the over right now, so I see no reason to fire on the under with this line likely to move up.
Also, selfishly, I'm hoping Dallas puts up a big point total to give my 60-1 preseason ticket on the Bengals allowing the most points on the season a fighting chance. The Bengals currently sit second behind Carolina, so I'm likely only going to fire on this under if it moves up.
Verdict: Wait
