Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 14 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 14 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 14 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Packers
Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 88.8%
2. Vikings
Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 86.1%
3. Eagles
Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 77%
3. Browns
Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 77%
3. Texans
Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 77%
6. Jets
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
7. Ravens
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
8. Patriots
Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
8. Titans
Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
8. Falcons
Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
11. Cowboys
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
11. Chargers
Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
13. Saints
Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
13. Steelers
Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
13. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
16. Seahawks
Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 50%
16. Rams
Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 50%
18. Colts
Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
18. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
18. 49ers
Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
21. Bears
Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
21. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
23. Chiefs
Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
23. Panthers
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
23. Raiders
Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
26. Bills
Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
27. Dolphins
Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
28. Bengals
Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 23%
28. Broncos
Matchup: @ HOU23%
28. Giants
Matchup: @ PHI23%
31. Lions
Matchup: @ MIN13.9%
32. Redskins
Matchup: @ GB11.2%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Rams
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. SEA
2. Jets
Spread: -5
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-3. Cardinals
Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. PIT
T-3. Jaguars
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. LAC
5. Giants
Spread: +9.5
Opponent: @ PHI
6. Packers
Spread: -12.5
Opponent: vs. WAS
T-8. Vikings
Spread: -12.5
Opponent: vs. DET
T-8. Bengals
Spread: +8.5
Opponent: @ CLE
T-8. Broncos
Spread: +9
Opponent: @ HOU
T-11. Colts
Spread: +3
Opponent: @ TB
T-11. 49ers
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ NO
T-11. Bears
Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. DAL
T-14. Falcons
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. CAR
T-14. Bills
Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. BAL
T-14. Patriots
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. KC
16. Raiders
Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. TEN
17. Titans
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ OAK
T-19. Chiefs
Spread: +3
Opponent: @ NE
T-19. Ravens
Spread: -6
Opponent: @ BUF
T-19. Panthers
Spread: +3
Opponent: @ ATL
T-22. Cowboys
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ CHI
T-22. Saints
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. SF
T-22. Buccaneers
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. IND
T-25. Browns
Spread: -8.5
Opponent: vs. CIN
T-25. Texans
Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. DEN
T-25. Lions
Spread: +12.5
Opponent: @ MIN
27. Redskins
Spread: +12.5
Opponent: @ GB
28. Eagles
Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. NYG
T-29. Chargers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ JAX
T-29. Steelers
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ ARI
31. Dolphins
Spread: +5
Opponent: @ NYJ
32. Seahawks
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ LAR
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
