TE Brock Wright, Lions
Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)
There are a few factors that indicate some value here:
1) There's value on Jared Goff's passing yards under set at 272.5 as the Lions should be able to lean on the run in this game.
2) It's the first time all season Goff has all four of his wide receivers healthy, not to mention D'Andre Swift seems 100% now.
3) The Lions have been using a three-way committee at tight end, so Wright should see around a 30-35% routes run rate.
4) Wright is due for regression in either his catch rate (92%) or Y/R (10.8), possibly both. Something has to give here with an aDOT of 2.9.
Wright could stay under this number even with two receptions. I project his median closer to 10.5 yards.
WR Stefon Diggs, Bills
Under 6.5 Receptions (-113, FanDuel)
Diggs has a tough matchup against a Jets secondary that’s held opposing wide receivers to a 59.6% catch rate (fifth lowest). He’ll likely draw Sauce Gardner or DJ Reed for most of the game.
Weather could play an important role, as there will be a decent amount of rain, snow and win which could lead to a run-heavy game script as a result.
I’m projecting Diggs closer to six receptions and would bet down to -130.
Pick: Under 6.5 Receptions (-113; playable to -130) |
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QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Under 27.5 Pass Attempts (-114, FanDuel)
Tannehill’s only cleared this number in three of 10 games this season. The Titans will be without Treylon Burks, meaning they are very thin at wide receiver, and as 3.5-point home favorites, they will probably look to get Derrick Henry going on the ground.
Another reason I think this under is sneaky is due to Tannehill scrambling more. He only ran for nine-plus yards once in his first six games as he was dealing with an ankle injury. He has since rushed for nine-plus in three of the last four games.
Each scramble comes at the expense of a pass attempt. I project Tannehill closer to 26.5.
Tyler Huntley isn’t much of a downgrade from Lamar Jackson. However, he spread the ball around quite a bit last week, and with J.K. Dobbins back, the Ravens could have a run-heavy game plan.
The Steelers have become a very run-heavy team themselves of late, and that could help lower the number of plays the Ravens can run.
I’m in line with Andrews' receptions prop, but this market is inflated by a handful of yards based on the majority of bets coming in on the over. Im projecting this closer to 54.5.
Though Courtland Sutton is out, Hinton’s playing time is already maxed out in the 85% routes run range. Not to mention Russell Wilson still stinks.
I’m not even sure Hinton’s target share will go up much with Jerry Jeudy likely returning to a full-time role and Greg Dulcich being the clear second target. Brandon Johnson will likely get the biggest boost overall from Sutton’s absence.
Plus, Hinton’s 83% catch rate is unsustainable and will likely be in the 66-68% range going forward. Im projecting this closer to 31.5.
