NFL Odds & Picks
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Billy Ward: The pricing on this prop continues to baffle me.
This game and Vikings vs. Lions have identical two-point spreads. However, the Vikings' game has a total more than 14 points higher. Yet, the “no” side of this prop is +155 in the Steelers game, and only +130 in the Vikings game.
Obviously, less total scoring is better for the "no" side, which makes that difference in the line confusing. Based on the spread and total in the Ravens-Steelers game, this one should be in the +120 range.
While DraftKings has moved this line a bit this week – I was able to get +160 a few days ago – +155 is still a strong value.
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Nick Giffen: The Giants attempt two-point conversions at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. As an underdog, that rate should be higher if they’re trailing.
The Eagles have allowed two or fewer extra-point attempts in 9 of 12 games. Weather could also play a factor as there is rain in the forecast.
I’m projecting Gano to go under 53.1% of the time, so I'd only bet this at even or plus money.
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Billy Ward: The Eagles are big favorites, which means we should see their “typical” approach again.
During their dominant start to the season, that consisted of a very aggressive first half, followed clock-killing in the second half. Books still haven’t adjusted to that, with the first-half total still roughly half of the overall mark. That’s an edge we will continue to exploit.
The Giants have a reasonably competent offense, so we should be able to count on them to contribute to the cause as well.
Pick: 1H Over 22.5 |
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Sean Koerner: There are a few factors that indicate some value here:
1) There's value on Jared Goff's passing yards under set at 272.5 as the Lions should be able to lean on the run in this game.
2) It's the first time all season Goff has all four of his wide receivers healthy, not to mention D'Andre Swift seems 100% now.
3) The Lions have been using a three-way committee at tight end, so Wright should see around a 30-35% routes run rate.
4) Wright is due for regression in either his catch rate (92%) or Y/R (10.8), possibly both. Something has to give here with an aDOT of 2.9.
Wright could stay under this number even with two receptions. I project his median closer to 10.5 yards.
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Billy Ward: Games at Ford Field have finished below 53 points just once this season, as the combination of the Lions' explosive offense, mediocre (at best) defense and pristine conditions indoors lead to a ton of scoring.
For the Vikings, they’re also mediocre defensively, with the 18th overall defense by DVOA.
This game should also play on the quicker side, with both teams ranking inside the top 10 in situation neutral and overall pace.
Pick: Over 51.5 | Playable to 52.5 |
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Nick Giffen: Jeudy’s median receiving yards when he’s played a full complement of snaps this year is 58 yards, so while that may be under his line here there’s a few reasons to lean toward the over.
First, Courtland Sutton is out, which should direct more passes in Jeudy’s direction.
Second is the matchup. Kansas City is not a great team against slot receivers, where Jeudy has lined up 69% of the time. The Chiefs are ninth-worst in yards per route run to the slot (1.39) and eighth-worst in yards per game allowed to the slot (67.3).
Additionally, the Chiefs play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate. Jeudy has absolutely torched man coverage to the tune of 6.09 yards per route run compared to 1.34 against zone coverage. While that number is unsustainable, it’s certainly a sign he has some big upside here.
As 9.5 point underdogs, it’s likely the Broncos will be in a pass-heavy script for at least the end of the game, if not more. That also speeds up the game quite a bit, as the Broncos play substantially faster when trailing, while the Chiefs slow down less than average when leading.
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Nick Giffen: This number seems like a low bar for Samuel to clear, which he’s done seven times in 11 games already this year. In fact, his median is nearly 10 full yards above this line, sitting at 66 yards.
That includes the Week 1 games against the Bears, which was in the rain and when the 49ers leaned heavily on Samuel’s rushing ability. I think they use that gameplan again, and they would be wise to do so with rain in the forecast and Brock Purdy under center.
I also like Samuel's receiving upside, as he’s constantly fared better against zone defenses throughout his career. The Buccaneers play zone at the fifth-highest rate, so this is a prime spot for Samuel to take advantage of the defensive scheme.
While I project Samuel to go over both his rushing and receiving yards props individually, by combining them we elevate that floor and make it so one upside play in either facet of the game gives him a great chance of clearing.
