December means the finish line is near and the NFL playoffs are just around the corner.
Week 14 is the last one with bye weeks, but even with six teams off, I've got a full slate of bets. This is also a great time to invest in some long-shot futures, right as books get a touch overconfident that we finally all know who the right playoff teams are.
I laid out a few of my favorite futures already and make the case for three division bets below. This late in the season, a well-timed win can change everything in the futures market, so the right futures bet can act as a proxy for a moneyline pick.
We've got escalators and long shots galore, so let's get to the Week 14 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 14 Predictions
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Jets vs. Dolphins
I love to play unders in these late-season division rematches and already went under four division games on The Hot Read. This game fits similar trends: division games Week 14 and later with a total between 40 and 47 go under 56% of the time, and ones with a home favorite under seven points go under 57%. This game also looks windy, and windy games have gone under 61% of the time over the past half-decade.
The Jets defense has rebounded some from its midseason swoon. Sauce Gardner is doubtful but hasn't been good, and Breece Hall is the more meaningful loss with his impact on both the run and pass game. The Jets defense is vulnerable over the middle where Tua Tagovailoa lives as much as any quarterback, but that should also slow the game down with long drives on short passes.
Miami hasn't been as expected. Even in Tagovailoa's games, the offense ranks around league average by DVOA while the defense has actually been fringe top 10 — the better side of the ball.
Miami's defense is better in the first half of games, top 12 by DVOA versus bottom 12 in the second half, and both these offenses follow a similar pattern. Both the Jets and Dolphins rank bottom five in first-half offense, including 31st for Miami somehow, with both much better in the second half. The Jets and Dolphins are averaging just 10.0 and 8.8 points per game in the first half.
We've already seen seven Jets games this season with 23 points or less at the half, and 10 of 12 Dolphins games have been at 24 or less at halftime. That's right about where this line sits, so let's take the first-half under.
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Eagles vs. Panthers
You've heard a lot of talk the last couple of weeks about Bryce Young improvement, and let's give the kid his due, but are we positive that wasn't as much a story about badly faltering Chiefs and Bucs defenses? The Eagles are a different animal altogether, the best defense in the league since their bye week both against the run and the pass.
Philadelphia's offense is almost as good, with a passing attack that ranks 4th by DVOA in healthy A.J. Brown games. He might be the real MVP of this team, though Saquon Barkley will be drooling over facing this awful Panthers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in virtually every metric. Barkley's rushing yards line is a ridiculous 112.5 yards, and Philadelphia should run all over Carolina.
I've been betting against the Panthers early in games all season, but the Eagles haven't earned our trust early and are still one of the worst first-quarter offenses in the league. Philadelphia's offense is below league average by DVOA in the first half by No. 2 after halftime.
The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in the second half with Carolina just 4-8. I suspect Philadelphia ultimately takes care of business with relative ease, but the second-half spread gets us below the full -13 spread and ducks the key number of seven in the second half too. I don't mind paying a little bit of juice to get -5.5 if you can duck the -6 at your book.
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Browns vs. Steelers
I already played the under on this game, and even as this line gets bet up while bettors overreact to offensive spikes from both teams last weekend, I'm still expecting an ugly, low-scoring battle. These teams just played two weeks ago and it was 10-6 with 12 minutes left before snow buried the field and the teams went nuts for four TDs on the slippery surface late.
That was Cleveland with 10 by the way, and the Browns continue to compete hard and have fun with Jameis Winston. The offense is playing much better and that gives this defense a chance too. Cleveland has been at its best in these rivalry games.
Pittsburgh's pass rush will be a tough test for Winston, but Cleveland had a good plan for T.J. Watt last game and may be able to run on a Steelers defense that ranks second to last against the run by DVOA over the past six weeks. Add in some winds and the usual blustery weather and Nick Chubb could be in for a good game.
Cleveland has a top-five defense in the first quarter, so the Browns can hang around early, especially since the Steelers are much better in the second half. Give this team a breath of confidence and we've seen what they can do.
Seven is just too many points in this rivalry, which has finished within one score in five of the last nine meetings. Jameis Winston is 21-11-1 ATS (66%) as more than a field goal underdog, and underdogs are 44-26-1 ATS (63%) in late-season AFC North division matchups.
This is just a bad spot for Pittsburgh, coming off a big upset win over the Bengals with the in-state rival Eagles up next before battles for playoff positioning with Baltimore and Kansas City.
Mike Tomlin is great as an underdog but his teams often have letdowns as big favorites. When Pittsburgh covers as an underdog and is favored by more than six the next week under Tomlin, the Steelers are just 3-9 ATS, covering only a quarter of the time.
The Browns have proven they can hang with most opponents — and maybe even beat them.
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Saints vs. Giants
I can't even believe it but… I think I kinda like the Saints? And not just in this game.
In eight full games with Derek Carr this season, the Saints rank 8th in overall DVOA. The offense ranks just as high, both running and passing, and even the fading defense has been about league average in those Carr games.
The Saints are scoring 27.3 points per game in those eight full Carr games, versus just 14.5 without. The defense is much better with Carr too — turns out it's far easier playing defense when you're not on your heels all game — so the Saints' average game margin is actually +9.2 points in those eight full Carr games, compared to -19.5 in the other four.
Taysom Hill is out for the season now, and that's a big loss for how this team utilized him, but Dexter Lawrence is a significantly bigger loss for the giants. He was playing as well as any defender in the league, and even with Sexy Dexy, the Giants had already cratered. They've been the worst team in the league over the past six weeks, near the bottom both offensively and defensively, and appear to be outright tanking. They're also the worst team in the league defending the deep ball, a Saints specialty.
The Saints are better than the season-long metrics indicate, and they're especially good early in games. New Orleans ranks top 10 on the season in both offense and defense before completely falling apart to bottom quarter of the league in both in the second half. In those eight full Carr games, New Orleans is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 SU in the first half, averaging 16.5 points per game with at least 13 points in six of them.
The Saints should score on this failing Giants defense, so I looked at the team total over and also considered Saints 1H — so why not just combine them? Let's go with the Saints over 10.5 first-half points.
And in this awful NFC South, I'm not convinced the Saints are dead yet.
New Orleans should win this game. Atlanta is a big underdog in Minnesota, and I looked hard at backing the Raiders in Tampa Bay this weekend. It's entirely possible the Saints are only one game back in the division in a couple of days. They may need to win out, with Washington and Green Bay next up, but this team is good enough to compete in those games. The Saints also get the Bucs in the finale.
I'm sprinkling the Saints at +10000 to win the NFC South (BetMGM). New Orleans will need to win a bunch of games and likely needs help from the Raiders and Panthers, both of whom play both the Falcons and Bucs still, but those teams are frisky so I don't mind it.
At 100-1, this is just priced too long. If the Saints even close the gap a bit, we'll be in a tremendous position to hedge.
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Raiders vs. Buccaneers
I kinda like the Raiders in this matchup but missed the +7.5 past the key number to +6.5, so let's just play the best part of the Raiders instead.
Brock Bowers has been a beast. He leads the NFL in receptions as a rookie tight end and already has games of 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, and 13 catches this season, with 8+ catches in five of his last eight games. Since the start of October, Bowers is averaging eight catches for 84 yards on 11 targets a game.
This is a great matchup for Bowers since the Bucs rank near the bottom of the league against tight ends. They've already allowed 88- and 91-yard games to Kyle Pitts, 7/62 to Dallas Goedert, and a 14/100 Travis Kelce game particularly caught my attention. Bowers can put up a line like that and feast over the middle all day in this matchup.
I'm not interested in Bowers yards, nor am I chasing Rookie of the Year steam. BoweNrs isn't a complete tight end yet — the blocking needs work, and he's more volume than efficiency at barely over 10 yards a catch and just two games of 100 yards.
No, I want the volume — I want a Bowers receptions escalator.
His receptions line has been quickly bet up at 6.5, juiced to -160 and counting at some books, so I much prefer the alt line of 8+ catches at +125 (bet365). Remember, he's done that 63% of the time his last eight games. I'll also play 10+ receptions at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit three times already as a rookie.
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Jaguars vs. Titans
The Titans have dominated this division rivalry, winning 10 of the last 14, but Tennessee is a -3.5 favorite, past the key number, with a terrible ATS record on the season. The under also looked good here until it got smashed down from 43.5 on Sunday to 39.5 and counting, which also left the Jaguars team total under I was eyeing a touch low at 17.5 to be worth it.
The Jags have really struggled to score under Mac Jones, who now ranks 41st of 45 qualifying QBs in non-garbage-time EPA at -0.1 per play since the start of last season. That's ahead of only Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Bailey Zappe — and behind such luminaries as Desmond Ridder, Joshua Dobbs, and his opponent here, Will Levis.
With Jones under center, Jacksonville's offense has gone completely missing. The Jaguars scored seven in Jones' first game and six the nex tweek, then had six points again with 8 minutes left last week before a pair of garbage-time TDs. Before those two meaningless drives, Jones had led the team on 27 drives for just 19 points on the season. Awful.
The Titans defense is genuinely good, top 10 by DVOA on the season, and there's a real chance the Jaguars just can't move the ball or score here.
I'm taking the Jaguars' team total mineshaft — under 10.5 Jacksonville points at +400 and under 7.5 points at +900, both at DraftKings.
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Falcons vs. Vikings
For Vikings fans, this game is basically a Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins returning to town. It could be a tough homecoming for Cousins, a stationary target with subpar pass blocking coming off a four-interception game and facing all that Brian Flores pressure.
Atlanta games have been much higher-scoring on the road this season. The Falcons offense has played better on the road, and the defense has been much worse. That could mean fireworks in Minnesota, and I think we get a shootout between Cousins' favorite new target and his old one.
I'm building the Jilted Lovers WR1 Kirk Bowl Showdown escalator.
Cousins has had great chemistry all season with his shiny new toy Drake London, but don't tell Justin Jefferson. He may be eager to show his old QB he never needed him anyway, and I think Jefferson can match London catch for catch.
These defenses both rank bottom 10 against opposing WR1s on the season. Atlanta is bottom five, and Minnesota allows the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs and might be without top corner Stephon Gilmore too.
Both guys have a receptions line around six, with London's receiving yards line around 70 and Jefferson closer to 85. I'm looking to play a couple of combo parlays on both WR1s together.
First, let's play 6+ catches and 60+ yards for both London and Jefferson at +270 (bet365). London has hit those numbers in seven of 12 games, over half of them, and Jefferson's done it in eight of 12. That's an implied 39% at hitting both even before taking the matchup into account.
You can play around with the number combinations however you like, but I settled on 7+ catches for 100+ yards as the escalator here at +1800 (bet365). Jefferson's hit 7/97 or better three times or more this season and London has done it twice, and that's just a terrible number compared to the +270 when it's just one additional long catch for each guy.
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Seahawks vs. Cardinals
I've been on Seattle Island all season, but it's important to not be stubborn as a bettor. And as I studied this game, I can't escape feeling like the Cardinals are the right side and the clear better team right now.
I've been pounding the table for Seattle's defense. Mike Macdonald's defense ranks top three outside a Week 4-to-6 stretch when they played three games in 11 days without about half the starters. I still believe in the defense — it's the offense that's the problem. Seattle's offense ranks dead last by DVOA over the past six weeks, including last running the ball, and this offensive line can't block anyone right now.
Over that same stretch, Arizona ranks top five by DVOA — on offense, on defense, and overall. The offense is playing well, as expected, but Nick Rallis' defense has made shocking strides. Over the past month, this defense has come into its own with a top-five pass defense. Seattle has won six in a row in this rivalry, but Seattle's offense is the weak link against this improved Cardinals defense.
I can't escape feeling good about the Cardinals, both this weekend and moving forward. Arizona's defense also ranks 10 spots better at home than on the road, while Seattle's defense is below league average on the road. Arizona also has the league's best first-quarter offense by DVOA while Seattle's is league-worst, giving the Cardinals a great chance to jump out early.
So how do we play this? I don't love just the spread at -2.5 since Arizona has three wins this season that don't cover that number. If I like a side but don't love the number, I'm inclined to give up some outs to juice the odds for a better payout.
If you just want a pick for the weekend, I like an SGP with a first-quarter and full-time moneyline on the Cardinals at +182 (DraftKings).
Mostly, though, I want to invest in Arizona futures.
I'm heavy on Seattle futures right now. My two units on the over 7.5 look safe, just one win away, but I'm in for 4.75 units on the Seahawks to make the playoffs or win the division — effectively the same proposition at this point — having played at various points at +215, +340, +600, and +800.
That's a good position, but not all good positions are winning positions — and I think this is the perfect time to hedge our good position by balancing with some Cardinals futures. A Seattle win keeps the Seahawks firmly in control of the division, but a loss is troublesome with the Packers and Vikings next, especially since Arizona gets the Patriots and Panthers.
I think this division is a two-team race with the Rams playing Buffalo and San Francisco next, and I'm ready to invest in Arizona. I made the case for Arizona to win the NFC West at +190 (BetRivers) here and also took a nibble at +5000 to win the NFC, a strong ticket if the Cards end up the 3-seed.
I'm also playing an in-between position, betting Kyler Murray to win Comeback Player of the Year at +900 (FanDuel).
Joe Burrow is the odds-on leader and having a spectacular season, but at 4-8, history says he doesn't fit the profile. Fifteen of the last 16 CPOY winners played for a team that won nine games and made the playoffs. With Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers fading and names like Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold not really returning from injury per se, Murray fits the profile well. Jonathan Gannon could be intriguing at +3000 for Coach of the Year too if Arizona finishes hot (DraftKings).
Check the app for how I split my Cardinals futures bets. This is a great way to invest in what's effectively an Arizona moneyline pick this weekend, and the time to invest is now.
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Sunday Night Football: Chargers vs. Chiefs
This is one of those division rematches I went under on, and I'm always going to consider the underdog in a game that looks low-scoring. The market is simply overrating the Chiefs right now, still priced at +500 to win the Super Bowl, effectively the same as the Bills and Eagles.
Those teams are playing far better football right now, and I'm not sure it's even close. Over the past six weeks, the Chiefs are an ugly 21st in DVOA. The offense falls outside the top 10, and the defense that got so much praise early has fallen all the way to 30th. The pass defense ranks 30th too, badly missing Jaylen Watson who's been out for exactly that stretch.
I think the Chargers are straight-up better than the Chiefs right now — and they might be better in all three phases of the game. The defense is way better, the special teams are better as Kansas City signs up its third kicker of the season, and the offense is better right now and may even have the better-playing quarterback. Justin Herbert can light up this Chiefs pass defense.
The Chargers have been great defensively and even better on the road, while the Chiefs are a bottom-10 defense at home on the season. They also have a great matchup advantage here. Patrick Mahomes throws 86% of his passes short, second most of any QB, but the Chargers lead the league in short pass defense by DVOA. LA's defense can handle Kansas City.
This is not a bet that the Chargers can win. They really honestly should win. They're just better right now. Still, it's the Chargers and Patrick Mahomes, so I'll split my bet and give myself an out in case the Chargers go and Charger everything up again late.
I'm playing the Chargers first-half moneyline at +148 (BetRivers). LA is a top-10 offense in the first half but bottom-10 in the second half, and the elite defense disappears to No. 27 in the fourth quarter. The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in the first half and led the Chiefs 10-0 in the first quarter earlier this season and 10-7 at the half before blowing the lead late, a similar script to the Ravens game they just played.
The full-game moneyline is +180, and I don't need the Chargers playing with my money late for 30 cents extra. If the Chargers do win as expected, I'd rather make a more aggressive play on LA to win the AFC West at +1600 (DraftKings).
I made the division case here earlier this week. A Chargers win here pulls them within two games before a winnable closing stretch against the Bucs, Broncos, Patriots, and Raiders, while the Chiefs have to play the Browns, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos — three of those four on the road.
If LA wins Sunday night, that division is live.
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NFL Week 15 Lookahead Pick: Bears vs. Vikings
This is a great trends spot looking ahead.
Both the Bears and Vikings are 8-4 to the under on the season. Sunday and Monday night unders are 61% since 2019, and Monday Night Football division games are a tried-and-true formula over the past couple of decades at 57% to the under.
I love playing unders for late-season division rematches. From Week 14 forward, division games with a total between 40 and 47 are 56% to the under, and ones with a home favorite under seven are 57% to the under.
These teams just played a few weeks ago and the total closed at 39.5. That one finished well over at 30-27 in overtime, but that was only the third time in the last 15 meetings that either of these teams scored 30 points.
During that stretch, Bears-Vikings games average just 38.7 points per game, with 45 or less in 11 of the 15 (73%). Only half the time did either team even hit 20 points in that stretch — and if neither hits 20, it'll be awfully hard to go over 42.5. Let's lock in the under early.
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