With only a few weeks left in the NFL regular season, the action continues in full force in Week 14. This week’s slate features divisional rematches with playoff implications, revenge games, and more. Keep in mind that the Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Commanders, Ravens, and Texans are on bye this week. Let’s jump into the slate and see where the value lies in Week 14.
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 14 Picks |
Packers vs. Lions on Thursday Night Football
The Packers get another shot at the Lions on Thursday, with both teams getting a full week to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving last week. When these divisional rivals faced off earlier this season, Detroit came away with a 24-14 road win, but that final score was somewhat misleading. Green Bay outgained Detroit in first downs (20-17), yards (411-261), and yards per play (6.6-4.7), but it never recovered from a back-breaking Jordan Love pick-six in the second quarter.
Love was hampered by a groin injury in that prior matchup, and his mobility was compromised. He didn’t record a rushing attempt and looked uncomfortable, especially as he fumbled three times. He’s now fully healthy, and he should have a full complement of weapons, with Romeo Doubs poised to make his return after missing last week’s game with a concussion.
Detroit’s defensive injuries are reaching a tipping point, especially in the front seven. Defensive linemen Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, and Kyle Peko are already out, while Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, and D.J. Reader are all questionable here. Meanwhile, Alex Anzalone is on IR, and Malcolm Rodriguez, his replacement at linebacker, tore his ACL last week.
With so much attrition upfront, the Lions’ elite run defense could start to slip in the coming weeks, and the Packers will indeed look to take advantage. Green Bay ranks first in the NFL in rush rate over expectation. Josh Jacobs should see another monster workload, and his success on early downs will help Love avoid obvious passing situations against a blitzing Detroit defense.
The Lions’ offense remains the best in the NFL, with Jared Goff putting together a fringe MVP candidacy surrounded by an elite crop of playmakers. However, the Packers should be more equipped to handle that group this week, with top cornerback Jaire Alexander potentially poised to return to the lineup.
We should also monitor the status of Lions left tackle Taylor Decker, who missed last week’s game. Dan Skipper allowed four pressures on his way to a subpar 53.3 PFF grade last week, and that’s a potential weakness Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will look to exploit with his unique blitz packages, especially with the continued emergence of second-year edge rusher Lukas Van Ness.
Matt Lafleur is 24-12 ATS (67%) as an underdog in his coaching career and 20-16 (56%) straight up. The Packers are live for the outright upset here with how well they’ve been playing, and I’ll take them to cover the spread on the right side of the key number of 3.
Verdict: Bet Packers +3.5
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Passes: NFL Week 14 Games I'm Not Betting
Panthers vs. Eagles
There’s no question that Bryce Young has been playing better football lately. Since returning from being benched in Week 8, he ranks 21st out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE. He’s posted 13 big-time throws to just four turnover-worthy plays over that four-game span. Unfortunately, he runs into a buzzsaw pass defense this week, as the Eagles have held opponents to just 6.18 yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the NFL.
Expect a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley once again this week. The Eagles are the most run-heavy team in the NFL when playing with a lead, and the Panthers rank 31st in run defense DVOA, so Barkley has an excellent opportunity to pad his Offensive Player of the Year resume.
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs. Giants
After Drew Lock started last week, the Giants may be moving back to Tommy DeVito here. Regardless of who is under center, there’s a sneaky opportunity for production against a banged-up Saints secondary that has allowed 7.64 yards per attempt to opposing passers, the fifth-highest in the NFL. Expect New York to feed Malik Nabers targets against overmatched New Orleans cornerbacks.
The Saints lost Taysom Hill for the season, which could lead to more work for Jamaal Williams against a battered Giants run defense that just lost top defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence with a season-ending elbow injury. Kendre Miller could also be poised to make an impact this week as he looks to return from Injured Reserve. Keep an eye out for player props in this game — the injuries and quarterback uncertainty create potential opportunities.
Verdict: Pass
Bengals vs. Cowboys
Joe Burrow continues to play at an MVP level, and it simply hasn’t mattered. Burrow has 30 touchdowns to five interceptions, but the Bengals are now 1-7 in one-score games after yet another close loss to the Steelers. Cincinnati is now the first team in NFL history to lose four games or more when scoring at least 33 points.
Pass protection has continued to be an issue for the Bengals — they rank 26th in pass-block win rate — and that could be a problem against the Cowboys, who lead the league in pressure rate now that Micah Parsons is healthy. Still, Chase Brown is taking on a huge workload and is poised for success against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run.
Rico Dowdle could also be poised for another big game on the ground. He’s handled an 86.4% and 84.6% rush share over the last two weeks, and the Bengals rank 26th in run defense DVOA. While CeeDee Lamb continues to play through injuries, this would also be a great spot to bounce back.
It’s tough to get a handle on where the Bengals are mentally and emotionally, and the front office could opt to clean house and start fresh with a new coaching staff. I don’t know what to expect from this team after their season ended last week. I’ll look to attack this game from a player prop standpoint instead.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Jets vs. Dolphins
The Jets benefitted from a uncharacteristically poor first-half performance from the Seahawks’ special teams on Sunday, scoring a touchdown on a short field off a muffed punt and returning a kickoff for a touchdown. However, they had another disappointing offensive output: they were held to 4.2 yards per play and didn’t score a point after halftime.
The Dolphins’ defense has declined after the departure of Vic Fangio, but I’m not betting on Aaron Rodgers taking advantage. His lack of mobility in the pocket has remained problematic, especially behind an offensive line that ranks 25th or worse in both pass and run-block win rate. Look for rookie standout edge rusher Chop Robinson to make an impact in this game against an offensive line now missing left tackle Tyron Smith.
Miami, meanwhile, lacks the same explosiveness on offense that we’ve grown accustomed to. Tua Tagovailoa has a 6.0-yard aDOT, the lowest of 42 qualified quarterbacks, and 2.19 seconds time-to-throw, the second-highest. Sauce Gardner’s injury bears monitoring after he left last week’s game with a hamstring issue.
The Jets score just 10.0 points per game in the first half (20th), and the Dolphins score 8.8 (25th), so I lean towards the first half under in this one. I’m waiting for more clarity on Gardner’s status before pulling the trigger.
Verdict: Lean 1H Under 23.5
Jaguars vs. Titans
After a vicious hit knocked Trevor Lawrence out of the game on Sunday, the Jaguars are back to Mac Jones under center, which is how you end up with a 3-9 Titans team laying over a field goal. Despite the team’s struggles, Tennessee’s defense has succeeded this year under first-year defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson.
Will Levis has also been playing solid football for the Titans lately. Since returning as the starter in Week 10, Levis ranks fourth among qualified quarterbacks with an 8.35 yards per attempt clip. He’s thrown for seven touchdowns to just two interceptions over that span, ranking top-four in hero throw rate and big-time throw rate.
Levis should have opportunities to find explosive plays through the air against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and has allowed plenty of downfield production all year. I’m waiting to see where the player prop markets open, as that might be the better way to attack this game, but I’m also tempted by the Titans’ team total over here.
Verdict: Lean Titans Over 21.5 Points
Browns vs. Steelers
We got the full Jameis Winston experience on Monday night against the Broncos. He threw for 497 yards and the Denver defense had 171 yards on interception returns. That combined 668-yard mark is the most by a quarterback in a single game in NFL history. Expect Winston to keep doing his thing this week against the Steelers, who play a high rate of single-high coverage and can be vulnerable to big plays through the air.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has been playing some of the best football of his career in Pittsburgh, ranking sixth in EPA+CPOE on the season. His 61% passing success rate in the win over the Bengals on Sunday was his best of the last four seasons. He’s especially been lethal on 20+ yard throws — he’s PFF’s second-highest graded passer on deep throws with 11 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
Arthur Smith deserves much credit for how well this Pittsburgh offense is playing. The Steelers went 44 games without 400 yards of offense under Matt Canada, and they’ve now done it in four games under Smith this year, including games with two different quarterbacks. Expect both offenses to continue pushing the ball downfield on Sunday.
Verdict: Lean Over 43.5 Points
Falcons vs. Vikings
The Falcons suffered one of the most unlikely losses of the season to the Chargers on Sunday, as Los Angeles had a postgame win expectancy of 3.4% per FTN. Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions, including an inexplicable pass that was telegraphed for a pick-six, and the national narrative is pushing hard for rookie Michael Penix Jr. to get an opportunity to close out the season. How will you respond, Kirk?
This week, Cousins faces his former team and a defensive coordinator who knows him well, Brian Flores. Under Flores, the Minnesota scheme relies on the highest blitz rate in the NFL, leading to a 27.2% pressure rate, the second-highest in the league. Cousins’ 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate from clean pocket spikes to 7.9% under pressure.
All that said, I actually like this matchup for Atlanta. Minnesota ranks just 22nd in DVOA against WR1s, meaning Drake London could thrive, and Darnell Mooney excels against the two-high safety structure the Vikings live in. After some injuries earlier this season, the Falcons have their starting five offensive linemen back in the lineup, which should help Cousins here.
The Falcons’ defense still leaves much to be desired, especially as it ranks just 28th in pressure rate. However, they looked rejuvenated off the bye week, holding the Chargers to a 32% offensive success rate that would rank dead last in the NFL this year. Perhaps that was a one-game wonder, but we can at least bank on improved health on that end after the Falcons entered their loss to the Broncos down several starters.
We’re nearing the bottom of the market on the Falcons after two ugly losses, and I’m intrigued by the idea of backing them in a buy-low opportunity this week. I’m holding off for now, though, to see how the market moves this line.
Verdict: Lean Falcons +6
Bills vs. Rams
The Bills are coming off a dominant showing on Sunday Night Football, clinching their fifth-straight AFC East title in a Buffalo blizzard. This isn’t the best spot for them, traveling cross-country for a game against a feisty Rams squad with plenty of offensive firepower. In a testament to Sean McVay’s coaching, the Rams have the best offense in the NFL in early down success rate despite injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and a slew of offensive line injuries.
Since Kupp and Nacua returned to the lineup in Week 8, Matthew Stafford ranks top-ten in adjusted EPA/play and success rate. A matchup against the Bills’ defense isn’t easy, but he provides a more significant challenge than most quarterbacks Buffalo has seen this year. This spot favors the Rams situationally; I’d lean in that direction.
Verdict: Lean Rams +4.5
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NFL Week 14 Picks
Raiders vs. Buccaneers
I saw the Raiders as nearly unbettable with Gardner Minshew under center, but I loved what I saw from Aidan O’Connell last week in what should have been a win over the Chiefs. He moved the ball up and down the field, showcasing a great connection with veteran Jakobi Meyers and rookie standout Brock Bowers.
Las Vegas found more of an offensive groove under interim coordinator Scott Turner over the last three weeks, and O’Connell only elevates that unit. I expect that to continue this week against a defense that has allowed the sixth-highest passer rating and highest success rate to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders also found more juice in the run game than they’ve had all season in rookie Sincere McCormick, who impressed in a brutal matchup against the Chiefs’ run defense.
After a red-hot start to the season, Baker Mayfield has started to fall back down to earth lately. He ranks 15th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE since Week 8 after ranking 8th over the first seven weeks. Mayfield’s 107.2 passer rating from a clean pocket drops to 69.7 under pressure, and the Raiders lead the NFL in pass rush win rate this year.
Tampa Bay is still in the hunt for the NFC South, but that’s more of a testament to how bad that division is than the Buccaneers’ strength. Mayfield is just 17-28-1 ATS (38%) as a favorite in his career, and I’ll take the points and back the Raiders for the first time all season.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +6.5
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
The market has already moved this total from a Sunday opener of 46 down to the current 44.5, and for good reason. In the first matchup between these teams, both offenses were held to less than 300 total yards and 20 first downs, with a pick-six from Seattle as the only touchdown scored in the game.
The Seahawks' defense has been excellent lately, ranking fourth in EPA/play and success rate since Week 9. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams followed up a monster game against the Cardinals two weeks ago by becoming the first player since 1982 with multiple sacks, a pick-six, and a blocked kick in the same game against the Jets. Linebacker Ernest Jones has dramatically added to the team’s run defense.
The Cardinals were held to just 49 rushing yards on 14 attempts two weeks ago, an impressive result for a Seahawks’ run defense that had been previously maligned this season. Arizona has struggled all year to finish drives with touchdowns, scoring six points on just 52.6% of red zone trips (23rd), which was an issue once again in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ offense has been underwhelming lately, ranking 28th in EPA/play since Week 8. Poor offensive line play has been a major culprit as the Seahawks rank 29th in adjusted line yards and Geno Smith has been the sixth-most pressured quarterback among qualified passers. The Cardinals rank third in defensive EPA/play since Week 9, and while the personnel still lacks household names, head coach Jonathan Gannon has done an excellent job with this group.
I'm betting on another low-scoring slugfest in this divisional battle between defensive-minded head coaches, just as we saw two weeks ago.
Verdict: Bet Under 44.5
Bears vs. 49ers
The Bears finally ended the Matt Eberflus era after yet another devastating one-score loss on Thanksgiving, and I expect this team to respond very positively. Eberflus’s lack of ability to take accountability for his woeful late-game management started to wear on the locker room, seeing as several veteran players were openly critical of the team's dysfunction.
Interim head coach Thomas Brown has done an excellent job in his short time as the interim offensive coordinator. Caleb Williams’ play has improved — he has a 99.2 passer rating with five touchdowns to zero interceptions in three games under Brown, compared to an 81 passer rating and nine touchdowns to five interceptions in nine games with Shane Waldron.
The 49ers have begun to crater on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 26th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate since Week 10. Brown’s offense has featured subtle but significant changes, including a renewed emphasis on the quick-fire passing and quarterback run games. I expect that to continue this week.
Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense should succeed against a banged-up 49ers offense. Chicago has a run funnel defense, ranking 10th against the pass and 30th against the run by DVOA. However, the Niners will struggle to take advantage after Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason hit IR.
Trent Williams seems poised to miss another game, and the 36-year-old all-world tackle might not play another game this season with an ankle injury that “hasn’t been healing the way [the team] had hoped,” according to Shanahan.
The 49ers look like a team poised to limp to the finish line, while the Bears should receive a dead cat bounce under an interim head coach here. I like Chicago to keep this close and even pull out a win in a close game, which felt like a constant impossibility under Eberflus.
Verdict: Bet Bears +4
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Despite pulling off the road win, Sunday’s result was deeply concerning for the Chargers’ offense. They managed just a 32% offensive success rate against a Falcons defense that has struggled for much of the season — that would rank dead last this season. They managed just ten first downs, going 3-11 on third down and finishing with 187 yards on a brutal 4.1 yards per play average.
The Chargers run game was already trending down before the J.K. Dobbins injury, but they’re left lifeless ahead of a matchup with the Chiefs, who allow the fifth-lowest rushing success rate on early downs in the NFL. Ladd McConkey has been a breakout talent for the Chargers in his rookie season, but he suffered a knee injury on Sunday that could impact his availability this week.
When Justin Herbert targets any receiver other than McConkey this season, the Chargers' passing success rate is just 41.6%—only five teams rank worse this year. Even if McConkey plays through his injury, I’d bank on Steve Spagnuolo having an excellent game plan to take him away and force the Chargers to win with other weapons.
The Chiefs lack an elite pressure unit, ranking just 13th in pass rush win rate, but Chris Jones remains a game-wrecking talent and is PFF’s highest-graded pass rusher in the NFL at the defensive tackle position. The Chargers have an elite offensive tackle duo but have massively struggled to contain interior pressure so that Jones could take over here.
I’ve written in this column for weeks that I’ve felt the Chargers’ defense has been overrated, and if there were a game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to wake up on offense finally, this would be it. Perhaps Isiah Pacheco can take on a more significant workload in his second game back against a defense that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards.
Regardless, I will fade the Chargers’ offense until they give me a reason not to after watching that performance on Sunday. I’m taking the Chargers’ team total under here with the expectation that this number could drop if we get bad news on McConkey later in the week.
Verdict: Bet Chargers Team Total Under 19.5
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