NFL Week 14 Bad Beats
Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing, so be sure to check out the math behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at Expected Scores and comparing them to Actual Scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflatteringly compared to their expected performance given the game situations encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 11 before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how a team actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Falcons (-2)
- Actual Result: Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25
- Expected Score: Falcons 28, Buccaneers 17
- Swing: 15 points, 36.6% win probability
The Falcons have been on both sides of bad beats this season but unfortunately, more often than not, they're on the wrong end.
The guy who has been Mr. Reliable for Atlanta the past few years has been kicker Younghoe Koo, and he was due for a bad game. The offense, per usual, let the Falcons down. On their first drive of the game, the Falcons drove the ball all the way to the 9-yard line and picked up a first-and-goal. Desmond Ridder missed a wide-open Bijan Robinson on a third-and-goal and Atlanta was forced to kick a field goal.
Ridder then led the offense to the Bucs' 35-yard line and the drive ended with Koo attempting a 50-yard attempt with 4:25 remaining. Koo hit the right upright for his first missed field goal of the day. On the Falcons' next possession, Ridder took a sack on a first-and-10 that started at their own 8-yard line. Antoine Winfield Jr. stripped Ridder in the end zone and the Bucs picked up a two-point lead.
Atlanta's defense stopped the Bucs one more time and got the offense the ball back before the end of the first half. The offense was able to set up Koo with one more attempt with 2 seconds remaining from 52 yards out. Koo missed that one on the left side of the upright, and the Falcons ended up leaving a plethora of points on the field in the first half.
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2. Steelers (-5.5)
- Actual Result: Patriots 21, Steelers 18
- Expected Score: Steelers 19, Patriots 13
- Swing: 9 points, 32.3% win probability
This was less of an unlucky game for the Steelers as opposed to a lucky game for a Patriots offense, which has been abysmal up to this point in 2023. Mitch Trubisky got things going when he was intercepted by Jabrill Peppers at his own 43-yard line and returned it all the way to the Steelers' 11-yard line.
The Patriots scored two plays later on a Hunter Henry touchdown catch on his birthday.
New England has lacked explosive plays all season but was able to string together two straight to extend its lead before the end of the first half. A 28-yard completion to JuJu Smith-Schuster followed up by Henry's second touchdown catch that gave the Pats an 18-point lead with 7:38 remaining in the second quarter.
3. Chargers (-3)
- Actual Result: Broncos 24, Chargers 7
- Expected Score: Broncos 24, Chargers 19
- Swing: 12 points, 29.9% win probability
The Chargers have been a disappointment in 2023. For a team with an over/under season win total of 8.5, they only have five, which is the same amount as the Jets, for reference.
Los Angeles intercepted Russell Wilson at the Broncos' 13-yard line. The Chargers faced a third-and-3 from the 6-yard line. Justin Herbert threw two straight incompletions and the Chargers came away with no points.
Trailing 7-0 late in the second quarter, Brandon Staley once again decided to go for it on a fourth and short. From the Denver 29-yard line, Herbert once again threw an incompletion but injured his thumb and would miss the remainder of the game.
It has now been announced Herbert will miss the remainder of the season after getting surgery to repair it.
With Easton Stick in at quarterback, the Chargers faced an uphill battle to climb back. Staley once again decided to go for it on fourth down, this time a fourth-and-1 with 8:11 remaining in the third quarter. RB Joshua Kelley got stuffed by the Broncos' defense.
The success rates and yards per play show this game was much closer than the score indicates. Denver's success rate was 39.4% compared to Los Angeles' 37.3%. Denver's yards per play was 4.9 to 4.2 of L.A.
