NFL Week 14 is trending toward multiple games having historically low totals. Three games on the slate have an over/under in the low 30s as of Wednesday.
This week's Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Patriots and Steelers is listed as low as 30 points across the market. Sunday's Jaguars vs. Browns game is as low as 30.5 at most sportsbooks and Texans vs. Jets is listed as low as 32.5 points. If Patriots vs. Steelers and Jaguars vs. Browns close at or below their current total, it would be the first since 2005 Week 13, where we had two games close with a total of 31 or less.
Since 1980, only three games have had a total that dipped below 30 points at any point — Lions vs. Bears, Saints vs. Eagles and Colts vs. Patriots, which were all played Dec. 26, 1993 — but no game over that span ever closed below 30.
Weather was the main factor in all three of those games — two of which were in the teens at kickoff (Lions-Bears, Colts-Patriots) and two had wind gusts of at least 38 mph (Colts-Patriots, Saints-Eagles). Weather isn't expected to be the main factor in this week's low-total games, but the Steelers, Jets, Jaguars and Browns will all have backup quarterbacks under center.
In the history of our Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2003, only 28 games have closed with a total of 32.5 points or lower. Surprisingly, the under has been the profitable bet in those games, going 16-11-1 over that span.
As of this writing, Texans-Jets has the highest percentage of betting tickets on the under among the Week 14 games (95%), according to Action Network's public betting data. Ninety-one percent of betting tickets are on the under in Patriots-Steelers and 81% of betting tickets are on the under in Jaguars-Browns.
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