NFL Week 15 Bad Beats
Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing, so be sure to check out the math behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at Expected Scores and comparing them to Actual Scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to its expected performance given the game situations encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 15 before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks.
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how a team actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Browns (-2.5)
- Actual Result: Browns 20, Bears 17
- Expected Score: Browns 26, Bears 8
- Swing: 15 points, 34.3% win probability
The Cleveland Browns have managed their quarterback situation this season quite gracefully. Enter in 38-year-old Joe Flacco as the fourth QB to start a game for the Browns this season.
In his first two starts, he was 1-1 straight up/against the spread. And according to our model, Flacco and the Browns should have covered this one with ease.
Flacco's first miscue came with 13:26 remaining in the second quarter. Due to a miscommunication between the QB and Jerome Ford, Flacco threw the ball into the waiting arms of Eddie Jackson, who ran it all the way to the 2-yard line. The Bears wouldn't make it easy on themselves though, taking all four plays to punch it into the end zone.
His second interception was even more costly. Early in the second half, Flacco found Cedric Tillman, who was hit immediately upon contact. The ball bounced into the arms of Terrell Edmunds, who returned it 45 yards for the pick-six.
Cleveland had a success rate of 34.3%, 7 percentage points higher than the Bears, and averaged nearly 2 more yards per play than Chicago (5.63 to 3.76). In lower scoring games, these major swings mean even more because points come at such a premium.
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2. Texans (+3)
- Actual Result: Texans 19, Titans 16
- Expected Score: Texans 22, Titans 8
- Swing: 11 points, 30.5% win probability
Due to C.J. Stroud's inability to play after spending all week in concussion protocol, Case Keenum got the start for the Texans.
It was an inauspicious one, as he threw a pick-six to Elijah Molden to start the second quarter.
As the first half came to a close, the Texans drove the ball all the way down to the Tennessee 5-yard line with 31 seconds left. They faced a 2nd-and-1 after a completion to Noah Brown. Keenum threw the next pass out of the back of the end zone and the Texans followed it up with a 3rd-down rush that went nowhere.
Houston was forced to kick a field goal, going from an expected 5.4 points to just 3.
The success rates showed a massive difference in production with Houston at 44.4% compared to the Titans' 27%.
3. Packers (-3.5)
- Actual Result: Buccaneers 34, Packers 20
- Expected Score: Buccaneers 24, Packers 22
- Swing: 12 points, 26% win probability
After winning three straight games in November, the Packers have started to tail off.
With 3:50 remaining in the first quarter, the Packers moved the ball down to the Tampa Bay 5-yard line. A 2nd-and-3 from the 5-yard line turned into nothing when Love misfired to an open Jayden Reed on fourth down.
Green Bay was able to recover a fumble a couple plays later and convert that into a touchdown in two plays, so the luck was neutralized.
The Bucs faced a 3rd-and-6 with 12:27 remaining in the second quarter from the Packers' 19-yard line. Baker Mayfield found Mike Evans for his 11th touchdown reception of the season for an expected points swing of 3.5.
With Tampa Bay leading by seven points, the faced another third down, this time from midfield with 6:30 remaining in the fourth quarter. Mayfield fired to David Moore just past the first down marker. Moore broke a tackle and took off for a 52-yard touchdown pass. With an expected points of 1.6, another huge third down play led to the Buccaneers getting a tad lucky.
