With four weeks to go in the regular season, the sprint for the playoffs is on.
Let's look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 15 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Dec. 18, 12 p.m. ET.
1. Is The Cliff Near?
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are listed as a home underdog vs. the Bengals this week. Brady is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS as a home dog in his career. His only ATS loss? In 2005 vs. Peyton Manning.
Brady is 3-9-1 ATS this season, his worst ATS start to a season in his career.
2. Hot in Cincinnati
The Bengals are hot.
- Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his past 19 starts.
- Bengals are 18-3 ATS in their past 21 games.
- Bengals have won and covered five straight games – first time they’ve done that since 2011.
3. None For The Money
Welcome back to primetime, Mr. Jones. Daniel Jones is 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS in primetime in his career.
Jones is the only QB (min. 4 starts) to be winless in primetime over the past 20 years.
4. Is It A Sign?
Cowboys can go over their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Jaguars. Cowboys went over last season, too. Dallas hasn’t gone over their win total in consecutive years since 1994-95.
1995 was the last time the Dallas Cowboys won a Super Bowl.
Dating back to 1999, the Cowboys are 8-15 to the under on their preseason win total.
Every NFL Game For Week 15
Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
1-0 ATS 1-0 SU | 1-0 ATS 1-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-7 ATS 7-6 SU | 25-20-2 ATS 20-27 SU | 14-10 ATS 12-12 SU |
+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
49ers Record When Deebo Gets at Least One Target:
- With: 32-16 SU
- Without: 5-8 SU
+ Kyle Shanahan has won four straight NFC West games SU and six straight ATS.
49ers beat the Seahawks earlier this season. Shanahan has never beaten Seattle in two straight games SU or ATS.
+ Shanahan is 14-26-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 37-16 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ Shanahan on short rest with 49ers: 10-5 SU and 8-6-1 ATS, including 5-1 SU/ATS in his past six games on short rest.
+ That first road game off a long homestand can be tough for favorites. Teams to play at least three straight home games before playing on the road as a favorite in their next game are 24-40-1 ATS (37.5%) over the past 20 years.
+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 20-11 SU, 19-11-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well.
+ 49ers were 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Shanahan entering this season. This year, they are 3-0 ATS in this spot.
+ The 49ers defense has outscored their opponents 80-14 in second halves of their past six games.
+ The 49ers are 42-19 straight up and 35-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as quarterback. With all other quarterbacks in that span? They are 10-29 SU and 17-22 ATS.
+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering 4th quarter under Shanahan.
+ Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB
- Jimmy Garoppolo: 35-25-1 ATS
- All others: 17-22 ATS
+ Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
- Favorite: 23-28-1 ATS
- Underdog: 29-19 ATS (4th-best)
+ 49ers defensive ranks:
- Points Per Game 1st
- Yards Per Game 1st
- Points Per Play 1st
- Yards Per Rush 1st
- Rush YPG 1st
+ Pete Carroll is 10-2 SU and 8-2-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday as coach of the Seahawks, but has actually only covered once in this spot since 2017.
On short rest since 2019, Carroll is just 3-7 ATS
+ Carroll is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS vs. Shanahan, including 4-1 SU at home.
In both of their primetime matchups, the road team won.
+ The Seahawks were 8.5-point underdogs in Week 2 at the 49ers and lost 27-7. That matched Seattle's largest spread ever against the 49ers (also +8.5 back in 2002).
Now, the 49ers are just -3 in Seattle for their second game.
+ Seahawks have the largest margin to the over of any team in the NFL. Their games are going over the total by 6.4 PPG.
+ Seahawks are 80-1 to win it all, their longest odds since being 100-1 back in Week 8.
+ Geno Smith is 11-7 ATS in his past 18 starts dating back to 2016.
Geno Smith is -700 to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
+ Kenneth Walker has fallen to 3rd in odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +300. He opened the year at 25-1 odds.
+ This is Geno Smith’s first 4-game ATS losing streak since 2014 (25 starts since). Geno has never lost 5 in a row ATS in 47 career starts.
+ Since 2011, Seahawks are 24-10-2 ATS at home after a SU loss (1-2 ATS this season).
- 2nd-best of any team in that span. The most profitable? Vikings, who are 30-14-2 ATS.
- Pete Carroll is 27-13-1 ATS at home off a SU loss and 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home off a SU loss on short rest.
+ In Thursday divisional games in November or later, the under is 45-32-3 (58.4%) over the past 20 years.
This is the 6th such game this season, none of the previous six teams scored 30 pts or more.
| Matt Ryan, IND | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-6 ATS 4-6-1 SU | 116-123-4 ATS 128-114-1 SU | 59-62-2 ATS 59-63-1 SU |
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-6-1 ATS 10-3 SU | 68-66-2 ATS 70-64-2 SU | 32-34-1 ATS 41-26 SU |
Playoff Scenario:
IND eliminated == IND L + TEN W + NYJ W or IND L + TEN W + NE W
+ Matt Ryan has excelled on short rest in his career (20-9 ATS), 2nd-best ATS over the past 20 years (behind Philip Rivers) and when he’s on full rest (7 days) or more, he’s just 91-104-4 ATS in his career.
+ Colts are 2-11 against the first-half spread this season and are 2-13 in their past 15 first halves ATS dating back to last year. They are also 10-3 to the first-half under, 2nd-best of any team in the NFL.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-4 2H ATS, too.
+ Colts 9-4 to the under this season – Colts under 14 of past 18 games.
- Colts are 6-7 on a 6-point teaser this season, the worst record of any team in the NFL.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-3 in the Colts 13 games this season, 2nd-best 1H under win percentage this season.
+ Ryan hasn’t had a lot of success vs. good teams. He is 6-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU since 2020, 2nd-least profitable QB in the NFL ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
He’s 3-8-1 ATS in his past 11 starts vs. above .500 SU teams
Playoff Scenario:
MIN NFC N == MIN W or DET L
+ The Vikings are now 10-3 with a negative point differential (-1 pt diff)
9-0 SU in one-score games
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-38-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
1p ET or earlier: 47-35-2 ATS
4p ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ Kirk Cousins has played at home off a SU loss six times since the start of last season and the Vikings are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS.
+ Since 2015, Vikings are 19-6 ATS at home after a SU loss, most profitable team in the NFL.
+ With their victory over the Jets in Week 13, the Vikings have won 12 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ The Vikings, at least as far as bettors are concerned, have not been able to take advantage of bad offenses this season. They are 3-0 SU and 0-2-1 ATS vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG this year. Vikings were 4-1 ATS in that spot between 2020 and 2021.
+ In December or later, it has been profitable to back good teams (66%+ win pct) that have struggled to cover the spread (50% or less ATS win pct) as they have gone 104-78-3 ATS (57.1%) in the past 20 years.
Lead NFL Receiving Yards Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: 1,500 (N/A now; +150 last week, +800 open)
- Tyreek Hill: 1,460 (N/A now; -120 last week, 18-1 open)
Offensive POY Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: +140
- Jalen Hurts: +275
- Tyreek Hill: +300
The Vikings have a 76% win percentage with a negative point differential. Over the past 20 years, they are only the third team to play a game in December or later with a 70%+ win percentage and a negative point differential
- 2022 Vikings
- 2020 Browns — Lost in Divisional Round
- 2004 Falcons — Lost in Conference Championship
| Tyler Huntley, BAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
1-0 ATS 1-0 SU | 4-1 ATS 2-3 SU | 2-0 ATS 2-0 SU |
| Deshaun Watson, CLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 30-28 ATS 27-29-2 SU | 12-16 ATS 16-12 SU |
+ The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games vs. Browns dating back to 2015 and Baltimore is 6-1-1 in its past eight road games in Cleveland.
+ For the Ravens, it's all about motivation. After coming off facing a divisional opponent, as long as they don’t win by double-digits, they are 39-22-1 ATS in their next game. If they beat that divisional team by double-digits, they are 9-11-1 ATS in their next game under John Harbaugh.
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco and Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 7-10 SU/ATS.
+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 89-58 (60.5%) to the under over the past two seasons. Check the weather report!
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first-half spread. This season, the Ravens are 5-7-1 against the first-half spread.
+ Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. The Ravens are 26-5 SU, but just 15-16 ATS in those games. Of the 31 games, Baltimore has been an underdog three times. They are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games.
+ Ravens since 2017…
- Home: 21-28 ATS (1-5 ATS this season)
- Road: 30-17-1 ATS (5-2 ATS this season)
+ Jackson: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
Jackson vs. Browns: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS (4-1 SU/ATS vs. Stefanski)
Playoff Scenario:
CLE eliminated == CLE L + LAC W or CLE L + NYJ W or CLE L + NE W
+ Deshaun Watson’s third start for the Browns is this week.
30-28 SU, 27-29-2 ATS career
Watson is 15-7 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU
Watson is only 10-16-2 (38.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
+ Watson was listed as a home favorite 20 times with the Texans and he finished 8-12 ATS.
+ Browns can go under their preseason win total (8) with a loss vs. Ravens.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Brissett, Browns produced NFL's 5th-ranked offense (EPA per drive), trailing only the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in one-score games more to blame for the 4-7 record.
+ Outdoor divisional unders are 29-14-1 (67.4%) this season and 65-42-1 (60.7%) over the past two seasons. Best start for outdoor divisional unders since 2005 and 2nd-best start in the past 20 years.
+ Browns home overs started the year 4-0 and are 0-2 since. All six starts were under Brissett, this will be Watson’s first home start.
+ Stefanski with Browns
- Favorite: 18-8 SU, 9-17 ATS
- Dog: 6-15 SU, 11-9-1 ATS
+ Browns are 8-8 SU, 4-12 ATS vs. the AFC North under Stefanski.
| Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-5 ATS 8-3 SU | 18-13-1 ATS 21-11 SU | 6-8-1 ATS 8-7 SU |
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-7-1 ATS 10-3 SU | 42-32-5 ATS 52-27 SU | 20-17-2 ATS 28-11 SU |
+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win vs. Bills.
+ Tua hasn’t performed well ATS on a road trip in his career (2nd or more consecutive road games). Tua is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the 2nd game or later of a road trip and this is the first time he’s played a 3rd straight road game.
+ Tua has started 31 NFL games and played in 32 college games at Alabama in his career, he has never started a game with the temperature below 36 degrees. Saturday is expected to be about 28 degrees.
In the NFL, he’s started three games at 50 degrees or colder and the Dolphins are 0-3 SU/ATS, averaging just 14 PPG.
+ Dolphins are 16-6 SU in past 22 games.
+ Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-4 ATS at home and 6-9-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Dolphins are 5-1 to the under at home this season and 5-2 to the over on the road.
+ Tua is 9-5-1 (64%) ATS as an underdog in his career.
Largest Underdog of Tua’s Career
- +15 == at Bills (L 26-11; 2021)
- +7 == vs. Chiefs (L 33-27; 2020)
- +6 == vs. Patriots (W 33-24; 2021)
+ Tua is 4-0 ATS vs. Patriots and 2-3-1 ATS vs. Jets and Bills.
Playoff Scenario:
BUF playoffs == BUF W
- Bills are back to favorites to win the Super Bowl at +375, ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles at +450.
+ Bills have won 10 of their past 12 games vs. the Dolphins, including 7-1 in their past eight (lost earlier this season vs. MIA)
+ Dolphins are allowing 24 PPG this season. Josh Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.
- Vs. teams allowing 24+ PPG: 15-15-4
- Vs. teams allowing less than 24 PPG: 24-16-1
+ Allen has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive home games. In his career, he’s never lost three straight home games ATS.
Bills haven’t lost three consecutive home games ATS since 2016 and haven’t lost four straight ATS at home since 2014.
+ Since 2020, Allen is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in December, the most profitable QB ATS in the month.
+ The under is 9-2 in the Bills past 11 games.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 48-28-3 (63%) against the second-half spread.
In the month of December, Allen is 13-5-1 against the second half spread, covering eight of their past 10 since 2020.
- Allen has 11 interceptions this season, two fewer than current leader Matt Ryan (13), who opened at 40-1 in the preseason. Allen was 25-1 to lead the NFL in interceptions before the season.
| Desmond Ridder, ATL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Andy Dalton, NO | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-5 ATS 3-7 SU | 81-74-6 ATS 79-80-2 SU | 41-35-3 ATS 46-32-1 SU |
+ Desmond Ridder gets his first career start this week against the Saints. Rookie QBs are 9-5 ATS this season.
+ After starting 6-0 ATS, the Falcons are just 1-5 ATS since.
+ 6-0 ATS teams over the past decade after their hot start…
- 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 1-6 ATS
- 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
- 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS
Marcus Mariota started 6-0 ATS and finished 1-6 ATS. His Y/A was 8 in Sept/Oct and 6.5 in Nov/Dec.
+ Falcons are 1-7 SU (3-4-1 ATS) in their past eight road games
Falcons beat the Saints 27-25 last year in New Orleans. Atlanta hasn't beaten New Orleans on the road in consecutive years since 2001 and 2002.
+ Not a shock the Falcons made the move to Ridder. Atlanta has scored fewer than 17 points in consecutive games for just the 3rd time since 2014.
+ Saints-Falcons is just the 3rd game since 2010 where both teams have both scored and allowed fewer than 20 points in consecutive games entering the contest.
When two teams meet after both scoring fewer than 20 points in consecutive games entering the contest, the over is 35-18-1 (66%) in the past decade
+ The under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 Falcons games, including going 7-3 in their past 10 games overall.
+ Saints were on a bye last week. In Andy Dalton’s career, he is 9-18 SU and 12-15 ATS on extended rest.
Dalton’s 18 losses on extended rest since 2011 (his 1st season) are tied for the 2nd-most among all QBs (most? Stafford).
+ Late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 214-159-9 (57.4%) since 2003 (Dec. or later in regular season and 1p ET or earlier).
+ With both the Saints and Bears, Andy Dalton is 4-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite.
+ In the past 15 years, Saints are 9-1 SU at home off a bye week. Their only loss? 2019 vs. the Falcons.
+ Saints are 750-1 to win it all, their longest odds this season.
+ Between 2008 and 2019, Saints were 19-6 SU/ATS at home coming off a road trip (2+ consecutive road games). Since then, they are just 2-4 SU/ATS, losing two straight where they’ve scored a combined 9 points.
+ When both teams are on extended rest (8 days rest or more), the under is 66-40-1 (62.2%) since 2018.
| Jared Goff, DET | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
9-4 ATS 6-7 SU | 54-45-2 ATS 53-47-1 SU | 26-22 ATS 24-23-1 SU |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-2 ATS 5-2 SU | 10-10 ATS 8-12 SU | 5-4 ATS 4-5 SU |
+ Jared Goff is 26-13 ATS playing in the 1p ET window or earlier, covering 6 in a row in 2022. He is 26-29-2 ATS (47%) in all other games.
Dan Campbell's Coach of the Year odds: Friday: +10000 | Today: +750 (Caesars)
+ The Lions haven’t been favored in three consecutive games since October, 2018.
+ Jamaal Williams leads the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns, two ahead of Nick Chubb. Williams was +150 to lead NFL in rush TDs as of Week 14, with Chubb at +275.
Williams was also 150-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the preseason.
+ Lions have covered the spread in 6 consecutive games. They haven’t covered 6 straight games since 2011 (covered 7 straight between 2010 and 2011). The last time Detroit covered 6 straight all in the same season? 1995.
+ Lions are down to 100-1 to win it all, their shortest odds since Week 4.
+ Lions can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Jets.
+ Goff is 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in his past 12 starts coming off a double-digit win.
+ This week, the Lions travel to New York and will have to play outdoors. Not great for Jared Goff.
- Goff career outdoors: 29-32-2 ATS
- Indoors: 25-13 ATS
+ Under Dan Campbell and Sean McVay, Goff is 54-38-2 ATS (58.7%). Under John Fassel and Jeff Fisher he was 0-7 ATS.
Since 2019, only Joe Burrow is more profitable ATS than Jared Goff.
+ Sauce Gardner is now (-500) favorite to win Defensive ROY, he opened at +1200 odds.
+ Jets are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 7-6 SU, a $100 bettor is up $716.
+ The New York Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years, the longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, they were +105 last week in Week 14 and are now +165.
+ Jets face off against a potent Lions offense, averaging 26.8 PPG, good for 5th in the NFL.
This season, Jets are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs. teams scoring 24 PPG or more. They were 2-5 ATS in that spot under Robert Saleh entering the season.
+ Zach Wilson vs Mike White this season
- Wilson: 5-2 SU/ATS, 42.4 QBR, -12% DVOA
- White: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 49.2 QBR, +10.3% DVOA
+ Over the past 20 years, no Jets coach is above .500 ATS
- Eric Mangini 24-24-1
- Rex Ryan 50-50-2
- Robert Saleh 14-16
- Herm Edwards 21-25-4
- Todd Bowles 28-32-4
- Adam Gase 13-19
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
4-9 ATS 10-3 SU | 45-40-2 ATS 68-19 SU | 22-17-1 ATS 30-10 SU |
| Davis Mills, HOU | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-5 ATS 1-9-1 SU | 11-11 ATS 3-18-1 SU | 6-5 ATS 1-9-1 SU |
+ Double-digit favorites are 7-14 ATS this season, the worst start for double-digit favorites in the past 20 years.
+ Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (4,160). He leads by over 350 yards. He was +800 entering the season.
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home
- Home: 21-23-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 24-17-1 ATS
+ Mahomes as above a 7-pt favorite on the road: 8-0 SU, 1-7 ATS
Mahomes is 16-0 SU and 8-8 ATS as above a 5-pt favorite on the road in his career.
+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 28-34-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS
+ Mahomes in November and December in his career: 33-5 SU, 17-19-2 ATS
Mahomes had his has 26-game SU win streak in November and December snapped vs. Bengals in Week 13.
+ Chiefs are massive road favorites. If they close at 7 or more, the under is 84-45-2 (65%) when the road team is favored by 7 or more and the total is 45 or more over the past decade.
+ Chiefs are 6-1 to the under at home this season and 5-1 to the over on the road.
+ Chiefs are on the 3rd-game of a road trip from Cincinnati to Denver to Houston. Mahomes is 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS in the 2nd game or later of a road trip and this is the first time he’s played a 3rd straight road game.
+ Chiefs can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Texans.
+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half in Week 13 and lost. Kansas City had won their past 6 games in which they trailed at halftime. That was the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won 7 straight from 1989-90.
+ Mahomes is just 1-8 ATS this season after a SU win and 15-23 ATS after a win since 2020.
+ Patrick Mahomes (+200) is now behind Jalen Hurts (-165) in the MVP odds.
+ Mahomes has 11 interceptions this season, two fewer than the current leader Matt Ryan (13), who opened at 40-1 in the preseason. Mahomes was also 40-1 to lead NFL in interceptions before the season.
+ Texans are 1-22 SU vs. non-divisional opponents since December of 2020 (only win vs. Chargers).
+ At +14.5 this would be the highest home dog since the Jets (+14.5) at home vs. Bucs last season. Anything at +15 or higher would be the biggest since Jaguars/Bills in 2021 at +16. Jags upset Buffalo at home.
+ Texans are 9-36-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ Texans can go under their preseason win total (4.5) with a loss vs. Chiefs.
+ The Texans have lost 8 straight games SU and 7 of those 8 losses have been by 7 pts or more (lost to Cowboys by 4 last week).
+ Texans are 5-20-1 SU in past 26 games at home since 2019. Texans have just one win in their past 13 home games (1-12-1 SU).
+ Davis Mills is 13-9 against the first-half spread in his career.
+ Texans are 9-36-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ Week 15 is Davis Mills’ 23rd career start, all 23 as an underdog (11-11 ATS). Overall, Mills is 3-18-1 SU career.
+ 10-3 Chiefs face off against the 1-11-1 Texans. Beware of the record advantages.
Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 71-102-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 30-55-2 ATS (35%).
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
7-6 ATS 12-1 SU | 17-15-1 ATS 21-12 SU | 6-11 ATS 11-6 SU |
| Justin Fields, CHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-7 ATS 3-9 SU | 7-15 ATS 5-17 SU | 3-8 ATS 3-8 SU |
+ Eagles clinched a playoff berth with win vs. Giants last week (-190 to make playoffs in preseason).
+ Jalen Hurts is the -165 favorite to win the NFL MVP. Mahomes is +200 and Burrow is 7-1.
MVP odds move: May 1 40-1, Wk1 22-1, Wk2 16-1, Wk3 10-1, Wk4 7-1, Wk9 +350, Wk 14 +150.
+ Jalen Hurts has never faced a team off a bye week. Earlier this season, he faced the Packers off 10 days rest, that was the most opponent rest he’s ever faced.
+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 11-4-1 ATS
- Road: 6-11 ATS – He’s been under .500 ATS on the road in each of his 3 seasons in the NFL.
+ Eagles are 8-16 ATS on the road since 2020, the least profitable road team ATS in that span.
+ In December or later over the past 20 years, teams with a 90%+ win pct are 26-53-1 ATS (33%).
When those teams play away from home, they are 9-32-1 ATS (22%)
+ Eagles are 9-pt road favorites. If they close at 7 or more, the under is 84-45-2 (65%) when the road team is favored by 7 or more and the total is 45 or more over the past decade.
+ Least Profitable Eagles QB ATS on Road Past 20 Years
- Wentz 13-20 ATS
- Hurts 6-11 ATS
+ We call this the “All is going right” formula.
- Teams with 70%+ win pct and 60%+ cover pct. in December or later are 46.8% ATS, -7.9% ROI
- Teams with 70%+ win pct, 60%+ cover pct. and an avg. SU margin of 10 or more in December or later are 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%), a -17.2% ROI.
+ Over the past 20 years, the Bears are 9-14 SU and 5-17-1 ATS off a bye week (13 days rest or more), the least profitable team ATS in the NFL off a bye week. Bears are 2-10 ATS at home in this spot with their last cover coming all the way back in 2010.
- When the Bears face a team above .500 SU off 13+ days rest, they are 1-10 ATS in the past 20 years.
- On extended rest (8 days or more), Bears are 10-19 ATS since 2014.
+ Bears are 3-10 against the first-half spread this season (T-2nd-worst in the NFL).
+ 7 straight Bears games have gone over the total, including 8 of their past 9
Bears are 9-4 to the over this season, best in the NFL.
+ Bears have lost 6 consecutive games SU. They’ve only lost 6 straight on the moneyline in the same season once in the past 20 years (2020). 2014-15 is the last time the Bears lost 7 straight games at any point and 2002 is the last time they lost 7 straight in the same season (lost 8 straight).
+ 10-3 Chiefs face off against the 1-11-1 Texans. Beware of the record advantages.
Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 71-102-3 ATS. Since 2020 those teams are 30-55-2 ATS (35%).
+ Justin Fields is 7-15 ATS as a starting QB, including 6-13 ATS as an underdog.
+ Fields vs. above .500 SU teams: 1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS (lost 9 consecutive games SU)
+ Over the past two seasons, the Bears are 4-20 SU as underdogs, least profitable team on ML as dogs in the NFL (-$1,000).
+ Most rushing yards in the NFL this season? Chicago Bears with 2,459, leading by over 300 yards.
| Kenny Pickett, PIT | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-4 ATS 4-5 SU | 5-4 ATS 4-5 SU | 2-2 ATS 1-3 SU |
| Sam Darnold, CAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-0 ATS 2-0 SU | 20-30-1 ATS 19-32 SU | 12-12-1 ATS 11-14 SU |
+ Steelers have to go 4-0 down the stretch to avoid Mike Tomlin's first losing season in his 16 years as head coach of the Steelers: at Carolina, Las Vegas, at Baltimore, Cleveland.
+ December has been a tough month in Pittsburgh. Steelers are 9-17 ATS in December since 2017, the least profitable team ATS in December in that span.
+ With T.J. Watt in action since drafting him in 2017, the Steelers are 55-26-2 straight up, without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up.
+ Both the Steelers and Panthers are 8-5 to the under this season.
+ Tomlin is 41-17-1 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward in the regular season.
+ Steelers after beating the Ravens vs. not beating their rivals under Tomlin.
- After win: 5-13 ATS
- After loss: 9-4 ATS
+ Steelers have won 5 of their past 6 games SU the week after a loss vs. the Ravens.
+ Mitch Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett this season
- MT: 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 51.2 QBR, -2% DVOA
- KP: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, 45.1 QBR, -12.5% DVOA
+ Since Sam Darnold’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 108th of 110 QBs against the spread: 20-30-1 ATS.
As a favorite in his career, he is 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS.
+ Darnold has faced Mike Tomlin one other time in his career. Back in 2019, Darnold was +3 with Jets at home vs. Steelers and won 16-10.
+ Panthers have covered 4 consecutive games against the spread, the first time they’ve done that since 2019.
+ Teams with a win pct. of 40% or less and a 4+ game ATS winning streak are just 15-22 ATS over the past 20 years.
+ Panthers were 1,000-1 to win it all entering Week 13. They are now down to 150-1.
+ Panthers have covered 3 straight home games for the first time since 2017 (4 straight SU/ATS).
+ Disadvantage to traveling to Seattle? Teams the week after a road game in Seattle are 29-16-1 ATS since 2017, including 13-1 ATS over the past two seasons.
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
4-4 ATS 6-2 SU | 52-43-2 ATS 60-37 SU | 26-18-1 ATS 25-20 SU |
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-8 ATS 5-8 SU | 10-20 ATS 8-22 SU | 5-9 ATS 5-9 SU |
+ Cowboys can go over their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Jaguars.
+ Micah Parsons is a -275 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year right now. He was +900 in the preseason and -500 last week.
+ Dak as a 3-pt favorite or greater on the road: 16-4 SU, 14-5-1 ATS
Dak’s 14-5-1 ATS mark is the 2nd-best in this spot over the past 20 years, behind just Peyton Manning (35-20-5 ATS).
+ Dak Prescott is 52-43-2 ATS (55%) in his career.
24-10-2 ATS (71%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,277 – 2nd to Brady since 2005
15-24 ATS (39%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$982 – 111th of 112 QBs since he was drafted in 2016
+ We call this the “All is going right” formula.
- Teams with 70%+ win pct. and 60%+ cover pct. in December or later are 46.8% ATS, -7.9% ROI
- Teams with 70%+ win pct., 60%+ cover pct. and an avg. SU margin of 10 or more in December or later are 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%), a -17.2% ROI.
+ That first road game off a long homestand can be tough for favorites. Teams to play at least 3 straight home games before playing on the road as a favorite in their next game are 24-40-1 ATS (37.5%) over the past 20 years.
+ Trevor Lawrence is 8-22 SU, 10-20 ATS in his career.
+ Jaguars are 4-22 SU when allowing 14 points or more under Trevor Lawrence (beat the Titans last week).
+ The Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 games.
+ Jaguars are 5-1 to the under at home and 6-1 to the over on the road this season.
+ Lawrence has played six NFL games in his career with temperature of 50 degrees or less and the Jaguars are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS.
+ Jaguars after a SU win under Trevor Lawrence: 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS
Since 2018, Jaguars are 6-11 ATS after a SU win.
+ The Jaguars have lost 20 consecutive games SU vs. the NFC dating back to 2018 (2-18 ATS).
+ Since 2012, the Jags are 4-41 SU vs. the NFC (8-37 ATS).
| Colt McCoy, ARI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 12-22-1 ATS 11-24 SU | 9-10 ATS 7-12 SU |
| Brett Rypien, DEN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-1 ATS 0-1 SU | 1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 0-1 ATS 0-1 SU |
+ Colt McCoy gets his 3rd start this season. He is 1-1 SU and ATS. In his career, McCoy is 11-24 SU and 12-22-1 ATS.
- Since his 1st start in 2010, he’s 187th of 194 total QBs in that span ATS.
+ Cardinals are 4-9 against the 1st-half spread this season, but they’ve won two 1st halves in a row against the Patriots and Chargers at home. They are 1-4 1H ATS on the road this season and 2-8 1H ATS on the road in their past 8 games.
+ Cardinals face a struggling offense in the Broncos this week. Kliff Kingsbury is 10-3 SU/ATS in 13 career games vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season.
+ Cardinals are 30th in DVOA this season according to Football Outsiders. The only teams worse? Texans and Colts.
+ Historically, the Cardinals have faded after a loss this late in the season. They are 3-8 SU/ATS under Kingsbury after a loss in December or later.
+ Looking for parlay material? DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated 50+ receiving yards in 14 of his past 17 games, including 4 straight and 7 of 8.
+ Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury
- Overall: 28-34-1 SU, 32-29-2 ATS
- Weeks 1-7: 18-9-1 SU, 20-8 ATS
- Week 8+: 10-25 SU, 12-21-2 ATS
Kingsbury at Texas Tech
- Games 1-4: 18-6 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
- Games 5+: 17-34 SU, 23-28 ATS
- Brett Rypien makes his 3rd career start for the Broncos and 2nd this season. Rypien faced Jets in both career starts (Lost 16-9, won 37-28).
Since Peyton Manning left Denver at the end of 2015, Broncos are 18-28-2 ATS when listed as a favorite, failing to cover the spread in 7 consecutive games.
+ 11 of Denver’s past 13 games have gone under the total this season, the most profitable team to the under this season.
Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 23-7 (77%) in Broncos games, the best % in the NFL.
+ Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention with the loss vs. Chiefs last week. They were +115 to miss the playoffs in the preseason.
- Broncos have been sacked 44 times as a team this season, T-3rd-most in the NFL this season.
+ Broncos haven’t won in the United States since September 25th.
+ Broncos have lost five games in a row SU. They are 1-9 SU in their past 10 and 3-14 in their past 17 games.
+ Broncos have lost games where their opponent scored 10, 12, 16, 17, 17 and 19 points this season.
- Broncos have failed to score 17 pts in 10 games this season
- Broncos have lost 4 games this season where they led in the 4th quarter
- Broncos are averaging 14.9 PPG this season. Last team to finish w/ under 14 PPG in a season was the 2012 Chiefs.
+ Broncos have scored 18 total TDs this season, fewest in the NFL (next fewest is 20 by Texans & Colts).
+ The Broncos rank last in scoring and 4th in points allowed. That's virtually unprecedented in the 32-team era. In fact, the last NFL team to finish with the fewest points scored and fewest points allowed was the 1946 Steelers.
| Mac Jones, NE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
4-5-1 ATS 5-5 SU | 14-13-1 ATS 15-13 SU | 7-6-1 ATS 9-5 SU |
| Derek Carr, LV | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-7 ATS 5-8 SU | 67-72-2 ATS 62-79 SU | 30-33-1 ATS 32-32 SU |
+ Bill Belichick in PST over the past 20 years: 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS
+ How Patriots have performed by time window since 2018:
- 1p ET: 25-14-1 ATS
- 4p ET: 6-8-1 ATS
- Night: 11-15 ATS
+ Patriots are traveling from Arizona to Vegas and playing a second straight week in MST or further west. This is only the 4th time in the past 20 years Belichick has coached a team playing in MST or PST in back-to-back weeks. In that second road game, New England is 2-0 SU/ATS as favorites and 0-2 SU/ATS as underdogs.
+ Since 2003, Belichick is 29-16-1 ATS on short rest, including an even 5-5 ATS without Tom Brady in that spot.
+ Unusual circumstances: This is just the 3rd time since 2008 the Patriots will play back-to-back weeks in MST and PST, playing in Arizona last week and Vegas this week (Patriots split other two games, but both went under).
+ Opposing QBs have gone over their completions prop vs. Raiders in 11 of their past 14 games dating back to last season (not including the Rams game).
+ No disadvantage. Belichick is 34-9 SU, 28-14-1 ATS on short rest over the past 20 years in the regular season.
+ Mac Jones: 15-13 SU, 14-13-1 ATS. 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS past 15 starts.
+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:
- With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
- W/O Tom Brady: 43-40-1 ATS
+ Patriots unders are 37-22 (62.7%) on the road dating all the way back to 2016.
+ The Patriots are averaging 2.5 points in the first quarter this season, 30th in the NFL.
+ Matthew Judon is tied with Nick Bosa for the sack lead in the NFL with 14.5. Judon was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ Derek Carr is 15-8-1 ATS on extended rest in his career, including 8-4 ATS at home in that spot.
Most Profitable QB on Extended Rest Since 2014
- Garoppolo: 11-3 ATS
- Rodgers: 20-12 ATS
- Brady: 22-15-1 ATS
- Carr: 15-8-1 ATS
+ Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing (1,402). He leads by 200 yards over Derrick Henry. Jacobs was -165 to lead the NFL in rushing in Week 14 and was 40-1 to lead the league in the preseason.
+ Overs are 14-7-1 (67%) at Allegiant Stadium, making the Raiders the 4th-most profitable home team to the over since they moved to Vegas in 2020.
+ Raiders can go under their preseason win total (8.5) with a loss vs. Patriots.
+ Davante Adams has gone over his longest reception prop in six consecutive games.
+ Davante Adams has caught a touchdown pass from Derek Carr in 17 of 22 games together, dating back to their Fresno State days.
+ Raiders are 500-1 to win it all as of now, their longest odds this season.
+ Derek Carr has faced a defense allowing fewer than 20 PPG on the season 34 total times in his career — he is 21-13 ATS in those games, the 5th-most profitable QB ATS in that spot since he was drafted in 2014.
+ Raiders have lost six straight games vs. Patriots SU. Their last win came back in 2002. The rematch of the “Tuck Rule” game.
+ Expect the Raiders to bounce back? Derek Carr is 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in his past nine games at home after scoring less than 17 points in his previous game.
Since 2019, Carr is 4-9 ATS at home off a SU loss. Of 81 QBs in that spot in that span, he’s ranked 80th (only Baker Mayfield is less profitable).
| Ryan Tannehill, TENN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-5 ATS 6-5 SU | 72-72-3 ATS 80-67 SU | 33-38 ATS 34-37 SU |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
7-6 ATS 7-6 SU | 24-21 ATS 22-23 SU | 11-12 ATS 12-11 SU |
+ Under Mike Vrabel, Titans have played in PST three times. They are 3-0 SU and ATS, defeating the Rams, Seahawks and Raiders.
+ Ryan Tannehill is an even 72-72-3 ATS in his NFL career.
+ Titans have now lost 3 games in a row SU and ATS. Titans last lost 3 straight back in 2013 under Vrabel and then won on the road the following week.
- Vrabel and Tannehill are 11-7-1 ATS after a SU loss as a duo. Vrabel was 1-2 ATS in this spot with Marcus Mariota.
- Under Vrabel, the Titans have lost 13 games by double-digits. They are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in their next game after losing by double-digits.
+ The Titans rely on Derrick Henry on the road. He has a TD in 9 of his past 11 road games, dating back to the start of last season.
+ Vrabel is 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS on the road vs. above .500 opponents as coach of the Titans, but he’s 0-3 SU this season and has lost 4 in a row, dating back to last season.
+ Titans are 24-16 ATS as an underdog under Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel as dog on ML: 22-18 SU. $100 bettor up $2,515 (63% ROI) — best in NFL since first year as head coach
+ Titans are 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more under Vrabel.
+ Titans are 9-4 against the first-half spread, tied with the Jets for the best 1H win pct. in the NFL this season.
+ Justin Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
- Underdog: 11-6 ATS, 15-2 in 6-pt teasers
- Favorite: 13-15 ATS, 18-8 in 6-pt teasers
+ The Chargers offense has been humming, scoring 20+ points in 4 straight games. That’s happened seven times in Herbert’s career and the Chargers are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their next game.
Herbert and the Chargers haven’t performed well off close wins. They are 1-3 SU/ATS this season after a win by 3 points or less in their last game.
+ Chargers can go under their preseason win total (10.5) with a loss vs. Titans.
+ Justin Herbert is 12-30-3 (29%) against the second-half spread in his career.
Herbert 2H in 2022: 3-9-1 ATS
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.
- Under 50: 11-5 to over
- 50 or more: 9-5 to under
+ Herbert career: 22-23 SU, 24-21 ATS.
+ Herbert by time zone
- EST/CST: 11-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 13-17 ATS
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
10-3 ATS 9-4 SU | 29-14 ATS 24-18-1 SU | 15-7 ATS 11-10-1 SU |
| Tom Brady, TB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
3-9-1 ATS 6-7 SU | 212-153-11 ATS 278-92 SU | 109-73-8 ATS 154-32 SU |
+ Bengals are down to +1000 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.
+ Burrow career: 24-18-1 SU, 29-14 ATS (+$1,258). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his past 19 starts.
+ Bengals are 18-3 ATS in their past 21 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the past two seasons, including the playoffs (24-10 ATS).
+ Bengals have won and covered 5 straight games — first time they’ve done that since 2011. Last time Bengals won and covered six straight? To start the 1988 season (6-0 SU/ATS), which ended in a loss in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers.
+ Bengals can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Buccaneers.
+ In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 30-12-1 (71.4%) against the second-half spread, including 11-2 this season and 26-6-1 (81.3%) over the last two seasons.
+ Burrow is 16-7 ATS away from home, most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Tom Brady as a home dog in his career: 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS
- His only ATS loss? In 2005 vs. Peyton Manning
- QBs Brady has been home dog against: Burrow, Mahomes (2x), Rodgers, Peyton (3x), Dalton, Fiedler, Kordell, Kurt Warner, Flutie
+ The Bucs have faced the AFC four times this season and are 0-4 SU and ATS (they’ve lost 5 straight vs. AFC both SU and ATS).
+ Buccaneers are listed as underdogs for the second time this season, in consecutive weeks, after being favorites in 31 straight games dating back to January 2021.
That was also the last time Brady was an underdog in consecutive starts (happened in 3 straight starts).
+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Buccaneers with just 948 yards. The 2nd-fewest is the Chargers with 1,098 rushing yards.
+ Buccaneers team total unders are 12-1 this season.
+ Buccaneers officially went under their win total with the loss to the 49ers. In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are now 16-4-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 NE, 2-1 TB). The first time Brady has gone under his team's preseason win total since 2009.
+ Bucs are 30-1 to win the Super Bowl. They were as low as +700 entering Week 3.
+ Sports Odds History has midseason Super Bowl odds dating back to 2008. Brady has never been 30-1 or higher to win the SB prior to this week.
+ Buccaneers are failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
+ Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games
Brady is 0-6-1 ATS in his past 7 home starts.
+ In the first half, the under is 11-2 in the Buccaneers 13 games this season, best 1H under win pct. this season.
+ Teams after facing the 49ers this season are 1-11 SU in their next game, the worst record in the NFL.
+ Brady is 25-26-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 3-9-1 ATS this season. Brady is 1-9-1 ATS in his past 11 starts.
Brady’s worst ATS start to a season in his career.
+ Tom Brady threw just one TD in the loss to the 49ers. In Brady’s past 15 starts for the Bucs, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 10 of 15 games. Under 2.5 in 14 of 15 games.
- 0: 1
- 1: 9
- 2: 4
- 3+: 1
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
9-4 ATS 7-5-1 SU | 28-22 ATS 19-30-1 SU | 15-7 ATS 7-15 SU |
| Taylor Heinicke, WAS | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-1-1 ATS 5-1-1 SU | 13-10-1 ATS 12-11-1 SU | 6-5-1 ATS 5-7 SU |
+ Daniel Jones is 11-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents in his career, including 9-4 ATS when listed as an underdog vs. NFC East teams
+ Giants can go over their preseason win total with a win over the Commanders.
Giants under win total in 5 straight years and 8 of past 9, including 9-1-1 since 2011. The streak of 5 is longest active streak for O or U.
+ The under is 32-13-1 (71%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants past four games after starting the year 7-2 to the under.
+ Giants are 9-4 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 12 games since starting 10-3 ATS in 2008.
+ Giants are 5-3-1 SU and 7-2 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 6-10 ATS as underdogs last season (NY is most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs).
+ The “Number of Bets Compared To Daily Avg.” statistic shows how the current game compares in number of bets to the day's average for that sport. So, for example, if the current game has 2000 total bets and the average for that particular day for that sport is 1000, the value for that game would be 2.
With the Giants playing on Sunday Night Football, the bets will roll in. When Daniel Jones plays in an avg. game in terms of number of bets or higher (a value of 1 or 1-to-1), the Giants are 4-21 SU, including 1-9 SU on the road and 2-9 SU vs. NFC East in that spot.
+ Daniel Jones is 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS in primetime in his career.
Jones is the only QB (min. 4 starts) to be winless in primetime over the past 20 years.
+ Taylor Heinicke is rolling lately: 11-3-1 ATS past 15 starts
Most Profitable QB ATS since Nov. 1, 2021
- Burrow: 19-6
- Goff: 14-5
- Heinicke: 11-3-1
+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 8-2-1 to the under.
The under is 15-5-1 in the Commanders past 21 home games dating back to 2020. Washington and the Giants are actually the most profitable home teams to the under in that span.
+ Commanders are 6-1-1 SU/ATS in their past eight games overall.
+ Commanders are 2-0 SU/ATS in primetime this season. Between 2013 and 2021, Washington was 8-21 SU and 8-20-1 ATS in primetime, the least profitable team in the NFL.
+ Commanders can go over their preseason win total (7.5) with a win over the Giants.
+ Most Profitable Commanders QBs ATS Past 20 Years
- 1 Alex Smith: 11-4 ATS (+674)
- 2 Rex Grossman: 10-6 ATS (+356)
- 3 Taylor Heinicke: 13-9-1 ATS (+292)
+ The Commanders have held opposing QBs under their passing yards prop in 7 consecutive games and in 9 of their past 10 games overall.
| Baker Mayfield, LAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-5-1 ATS 4-5 SU | 13-13-1 ATS 14-13 SU | 6-6-1 ATS 8-5 SU |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-8 ATS 5-8 SU | 136-99-5 ATS 155-84-1 SU | 71-41-4 ATS 91-24-1 SU |
+ Baker Mayfield covered his last start for the Panthers before signing with the Rams. He’s gone 16 games since covering consecutive starts.
+ Mayfield is 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS in night games.
He’s 1-3 SU/ATS on MNF (losing 3 straight SU/ATS)
+ Rams were 0-2 SU/ATS at night this season (losses vs. 49ers/Bills) and then they came back from a 16-3 deficit against the Raiders for their first win. Rams were outscored 55-19 combined in the two previous losses.
+ Sean McVay in night games: 18-11 SU and 17-11-1 ATS
- Rams on extended rest this season: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS (lost 4 straight ATS)
+ Teams after facing the Raiders are 4-13 SU in their past 17 games dating back to 2021
After facing Raiders (since 2020) — 19-27 SU, 16-30 ATS (worst in NFL)
+ Rams are 5-9-1 ATS in their past 15 games dating back to last season.
+ The Rams had lost 6 consecutive games SU, the longest losing streak under Sean McVay, prior to last week against the Raiders.
+ Rams are 4-9 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $585 betting L.A., the 4th-least profitable team on the moneyline this season.
+ Rams Super Bowl odds since Week 7: 20-1, 25-1, 40-1, 50-1, 80-1, 500-1, 750-1 now
+ Aaron Rodgers at night: 44-28 SU, 41-29-2 ATS
+ Rodgers is 12-4 SU/ATS at night since 2020 (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS in past 5 starts at night).
+ At night as a 6-pt favorite or higher, 22-3 SU and 17-7-1 ATS (won 12 straight starts SU and is 15-1 SU in this spot since 2014.
+ Rodgers on extended rest (8+ days): 30-20-2 ATS
+ Rodgers started his career 8-1 ATS off a bye up to 2014, but since then, he’s 4-5-1 ATS off a bye week.
At home, Rodgers is hard to beat off a bye. He’s 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS.
+ When it comes to Rodgers’ passing yards, 260 seems to be a key number. Dating back to last season, he’s been under that number in 14 of his past 15 starts (over vs. Lions). He’s gone under 250 yards in 8 of his past 9 starts.
+ Fade Aaron Jones going forward? He’s gone under 45 rushing yards in three straight games, including 6 of his past 8.
+ Rodgers has played at home on Monday night 10 times in his career. He is 9-1 SU and 6-3 ATS. His only loss? Against the Bears in 2013.
+ Rodgers is 3-9-1 against the second-half spread this season, T-2nd least profitable QB against the second-half spread in the NFL. He’s 4-13-1 2H ATS in his past 18 games overall.
+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +700 now.
Market Movers
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 15 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 15; not including Thursday Night Football)
(-3.5) |
| 72% of bets at Buccaneers |
(+4.5) |
| 72% of bets at Commanders |
(+4) |
| 65% of bets at Saints |
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 15
(The most popular bet games for Week 15; not including Thursday Night Football)
(+4) |
| 30,000 betting tickets |
(-1) |
| 25,000 betting tickets |
(+9) |
| 22,000 betting tickets |
Biggest Line Moves in Week 15
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thursday Night Football):
(0 to -7) |
| 7-pt move vs. Rams |
(-3 to -9) |
| 6-pt move at Bears |
(-10 to -14.5) |
| 4.5-pt move at Texans |
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Week 15 picks -> PRO Access
Top Props for Week 15: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Bet: Under 24.5 passing attempts (-125)
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update first quarter, first half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.
Super Bowl Movers: Both the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the highest odds of the season entering Week 15…
SB: 25-1 (MIN highest odds since Week 4)
SB: 30-1 (Brady's longest midseason odds in 15 years)
Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
Coach: Nick Siriani (-400) | ||
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
NFL Win Total Tracker
Here are your results through 13 weeks:
- Over: Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Eagles
- Under: Rams, Packers, Colts, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Buccaneers
Will It Stay Under?
Totals of 50 or more are 14-9 to the under this season and 48-38 (55.8%) since the start of last season.
As of now, Week 15 of the 2022 season will be the first week since Week 18 last season that we have a week without a total of 50 or higher.
The last time it occurred in Week 15 or earlier? Week 13 and 14 of the 2019 season.
Just An Overreaction
So far this season, it's been profitable to back the inexperienced.
Backup QBs this year are 29-28 SU and 34-21-2 ATS, while rookie QBs are 9-5 ATS this season.
- The Favorites Podcast: Fresh off their bye, our Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter look to keep giving gamblers winning NFL bets. Full of yuletide cheer, the duo breakdown their favorite sides across the NFL slate, including a fishy line in Giants vs Commanders, a Florida team worth betting immediately, and an NFC North ugly 'dog.
- Action Network Podcast: The weather outside may be frightful, but these bets are so delightful! Action Network hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey look to cozy up by the warming hearth of closing line value this week, as they build their traditional Sunday Six Pack of against the spread picks. It's all underdogs this week, as the duo targets teams looking to buck public perception and rebound after some tough outings recently.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of 10 different options across eight different sports.
