Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 15 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 15 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 15 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Ravens
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 91.1%
2. 49ers
Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 81.9%
T-3. Patriots
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 79.6%
T-3. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 79.6%
5. Saints
Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 77%
T-6. Packers
Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
T-6. Giants
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
8. Eagles
Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
T-9. Titans
Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-9. Seahawks
Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-9. Raiders
Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
12. Buccaneers
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 62%
13. Browns
Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
14. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
T-15. Chargers
Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
T-15. Steelers
Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
T-17. Vikings
Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
T-17. Bills
Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
19. Rams
Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
20. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
21. Lions
Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-22. Texans
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-22. Jaguars
Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-22. Panthers
Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
25. Redskins
Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
T-26. Bears
Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
T-26. Dolphins
Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
28. Colts
Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 23%
T-29. Bengals
Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 20.4%
T-29. Broncos
Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 20.4%
31. Falcons
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 18.1%
32. Jets
Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 8.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Chargers
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. MIN
T-2. Cowboys
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-2. Panthers
Spread: 6
Opponent: vs. SEA
4. Titans
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. HOU
5. Steelers
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. BUF
T-6. Giants
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-6. Falcons
Spread: 11
Opponent: @ SF
T-6. Broncos
Spread: 9.5
Opponent: @ KC
9. Bengals
Spread: 9.5
Opponent: vs. NE
T-10. Jets
Spread: 16.5
Opponent: @ BAL
T-10. Colts
Spread: 9
Opponent: @ NO
T-10. Lions
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. TB
13. Redskins
Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. PHI
14. Bears
Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ GB
15. Jaguars
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ OAK
16. Cardinals
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE
17. Browns
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ ARI
18. Raiders
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. JAX
19. Packers
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. CHI
20. Eagles
Spread: -4
Opponent: @ WAS
T-21. Buccaneers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DET
T-21. Saints
Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. IND
T-21. Ravens
Spread: -16.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ
24. Patriots
Spread: -9.5
Opponent: @ CIN
T-25. Chiefs
Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. DEN
T-25. 49ers
Spread: -11
Opponent: vs. ATL
T-25. Dolphins
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ NYG
28. Bills
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ PIT
29. Texans
Spread: 3
Opponent: @ TEN
T-30. Seahawks
Spread: -6
Opponent: @ CAR
T-30. Rams
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ DAL
32. Vikings
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ LAC
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
