NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: Backing a team like the Colts after they just got rolled 54-19 by the Cowboys tends to be just as profitable as it is uncomfortable.
According to our Action Labs data, underdogs off a loss of 20 or more points are 106-69-3 (60%) against the spread (ATS) over the past five seasons, including an 11-4-1 (74%) mark this season.
The bye week should be a major advantage for the Colts for a couple of reasons.
First, if anyone could use a bye, it’s a first-time NFL head coach who was thrown into the fire in the middle of the year like Jeff Saturday.
Second, the week off allowed the Colts extra time to prepare for a Vikings team that will be on short rest after playing on the road last Sunday. Per our Action Labs data, road dogs by 2.5-7 points facing a home favorite on short rest have gone 47-23-1 (67%) ATS since 2005, covering by 2.6 points per game.
Kudos to the Vikings for finally figuring out how to come out on the right side of one-possession games, but this team continues to be overrated because of their record.
Despite a 10-3 straight-up mark, the Vikings average 342 total yards per game but give up 403.7, meaning they have been out-gained by an average of 61.7 yards!
Minnesota has certainly benefited from a lot of luck, which is illustrated by its No. 2 spot in our Luck Rankings. The opposite is true of the Colts, who rank 28th. When there is a luck differential of 16 or more spots, the unluckier team has covered at a 58% clip this season since we began tracking in Week 3.
But this is not just about the spot and the perception — the Colts have advantages from an Xs and Os standpoint as well.
The Vikings rank 23rd in pressure rate (19.1%), and PFF grades Matt Ryan as an above-average passer from a clean pocket this season with a mark of 82.5. The Vikings have struggled to contain No. 1 wide receivers; they rank 26th in DVOA versus WR1s and allow 87.3 schedule-adjusted yards per game to the position, which is fourth most.
Michael Pittman has topped 50 yards nine times this season, and the Colts are 4-4-1 straight up in those spots, with two of those losses coming by a single point, meaning they would have covered this number in seven of the nine.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts defense rates better than the Vikings offense despite Minnesota’s star power. The Vikings are 18th in overall offensive DVOA, 18th in passing and 21st in rushing while the Colts are 12th in overall defensive DVOA and 15th against both the pass and run.
What better time to take Saturday than on Saturday? I like the Colts at anything more than a field goal.
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