With only four weeks left in the regular season, we’re getting close to what should be an exhilarating playoffs. First, several teams remain in the hunt, with postseason implications reigning supreme this week.
The slate starts with an exciting Thursday night battle between divisional rivals before a loaded Sunday slate capped by a battle of potential NFC playoff teams.
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 15 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Rams vs. 49ers
The Rams got a perfect game out of their offense in Sunday’s win over the Bills, going 11-15 on third down and logging zero turnovers on their way to 44 points scored. Since Week 8, when Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup, the Rams rank top-four in passing EPA/play and success rate. They should be poised for success against the 49ers’ defense that ranks 26th in success rate since their Week 9 bye.
Los Angeles’ offense will have to continue to be near-perfect as its defense has continued to falter, ranking 29th in EPA/play allowed this season. Brock Purdy is on the heels of a massive bounce-back performance, completing 25-30 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns.
With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out, Isaac Guerendo excelled in a starting role, although his status will be worth monitoring after he suffered a foot sprain.
If this game weren’t taking place on a Thursday, I’d likely be betting the over here between two high-powered offenses and two defenses ill-equipped to contain them. However, the short week is enough for me to pause. This looks like a terrific game environment for player prop betting, which is how I’ll look to attack it.
Verdict: Pass
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Passes
Bengals vs. Titans
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have continued to set the league ablaze. Burrow is PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season, posting 33 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
Chase is on his way to a potential receiving triple crown, leading the league with 93 catches for 1,319 yards and 15 touchdowns. The duo is testing the limits of how far an elite quarterback and receiver can take you when the rest of your roster is near the bottom of the league.
The Bengals rank just 29th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in special teams DVOA. Their offensive line ranks 29th in pass-block win rate and 31st in run-block win rate. They rank 21st in rushing EPA and 30th in rushing success rate.
As has been the case all season, it will come down to Burrow and Chase donning their superhero capes this week.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Saints
Darren Rizzi has done an admirable job as the Saints' interim head coach. Still, he’s dealing with far less than a full deck on offense, and now he’ll move forward with either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener under center following Derek Carr’s fractured hand. The Commanders’ defense ranks just 28th in DVOA, but it shouldn’t have any problem containing this offense with a backup quarterback throwing to backup wide receivers.
Jayden Daniels should also lead a strong offensive performance coming off Washington’s bye week. The Saints are especially vulnerable against the run, ranking 31st in DVOA, so I’ll be very interested in Brian Robinson Jr.’s rushing props when the line opens with Austin Ekeler still on IR. I’m also using the Commanders as a six-point teaser piece, taking them down to -1 and pairing them with the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Verdict: Use Commanders -1 as a 6-Point Teaser Piece
Jets vs. Jaguars
The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention with their overtime loss to the Dolphins, and no part of this season has gone according to plan for Gang Green. Aaron Rodgers is a shell of his former self, and it’s difficult for me to have confidence in him even taking advantage of this excellent matchup against the Jaguars pass defense that ranks dead last in DVOA.
Mac Jones led the Jaguars to a road win over the hapless Titans last week, and he could find some success against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in EPA/pass allowed since Week 9. Ultimately, there are far better games to watch and bet on this slate. This is the easiest pass on the board.
Verdict: Pass
Bills vs. Lions
In one of the season's most anticipated games, we’ll see Josh Allen, the current MVP favorite, face the Detroit Lions, the current Super Bowl favorite. Allen presents all kinds of issues, especially for a defense that ranks first in man coverage rate and third in blitz rate. He has thrown for 14 touchdowns with just two interceptions against the blitz this season, and his legs could be a huge factor against a defense vulnerable to rushing quarterbacks.
Monitoring the practice reports for the Lions this week will be critical, given the sheer volume of injuries they’re facing on the defensive side of the ball. With the benefit of extended rest, it sounds like there’s a good chance all of D.J. Reader, Alim McNeil, Josh Paschal, and Brian Branch can return this week. Left tackle Taylor Decker could also be poised to return to the lineup.
The Lions will lean on their elite offensive line and run game against a Bills run defense that has yet to be thoroughly tested. Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards before contact per attempt in the NFL, and Detroit ranks third in that metric offensively. I’ll be interested in David Montgomery's props, as the Lions tend to lean on him heavily in their games against top-tier opponents.
The total for this game is priced at 55 points, the highest in a game since October 2022, when the Bills and Chiefs closed with a total of 55.5 points. This should be a fantastic game to watch from a neutral perspective, and I’d be intrigued by the Lions as short home favorites, depending on how the injury reports shake out. For now, though, this is a pass.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Vikings
The Bears were a complete disaster last week, and while I expected the Matt Eberflus dismissal to be a positive in terms of team chemistry, they looked as disconnected as they have all year. Thomas Brown brought short-term improvement as the interim offensive coordinator, but elevating from quarterbacks coach to head coach in a matter of weeks may have been too much to ask.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are firing on all cylinders behind one of the best coaching staffs in the league. Sam Darnold has put together MVP-caliber numbers in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, and Brian Flores’ defense has been dominant against the run and pass. It’s difficult to imagine the Vikings dropping this game, and they make for an excellent teaser leg this week.
Verdict: Pass, Use Vikings -1 as a 6-Point Teaser Leg
Falcons vs. Raiders
Desmond Ridder has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever this week. With Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell sidelined, Ridder will get his first start of the season against his former team, the Falcons. Atlanta has a 34% chance to make the playoffs at present, per the New York Times simulator, but that drops to 15% with a loss this week. In a bizarre revenge game, Ridder can effectively end his former team’s season.
The Falcons are floundering on the heels of four straight losses, and Kirk Cousins has looked like a terrible offseason investment — he ranks 31st in EPA+CPOE since Week 10. The Raiders can limit the Falcons on the ground with a run defense that ranks second in success rate over the last five weeks. However, it’s not enough for me to have an interest in backing Ridder as a home underdog.
I’ll be interested in diving into the player prop markets in this game, and Sincere McCormick has an opportunity to continue his strong play with Alexander Mattison and Zamir White still sidelined. I have no interest in this game from a side or total perspective at the current numbers, however.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Ravens vs. Giants
The Ravens have been stewing over their loss to the Eagles for two weeks and will have the opportunity to work the Giants like a speedbag this week. John Harbaugh has crushed with extra prep, going 25-8 SU and 19-12-2 ATS (61%) with 10+ days of rest. With any amount of extended prep, Harbaugh is 22-8-2 ATS (73%) in road/neutral games, including 6-1 ATS with Lamar Jackson.
If I had to bet the Ravens this week, it would be in the first half. Lamar Jackson is 56-36-2 ATS (61%) in the first half of his career, the best of any quarterback over the last 20 years. He’s 31-13-1 ATS (70%) in the first half in road/neutral games. The Ravens have every schematic advantage in the world in this matchup, and they’ll be able to name their number over this hapless Giants team.
Verdict: Lean Ravens 1H -7.5
Steelers vs. Eagles
The Steelers will likely be without George Pickens for another game this week, which is unfortunate timing as they’re facing one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Since Week 5, the Eagles rank second in the league in EPA/pass allowed, and the continued emergence of rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have helped them bolster an elite secondary.
However, the Eagles’ offense has been relatively one-dimensional thanks to Jalen Hurts’ struggles. Philadelphia’s offense is the only one in the league that has called more runs (50.4%) than passes this season, and Saquon Barkley is well on his way to winning Offensive Player of the Year. However, Hurts is playing like he’s stuck in quicksand this season, logging a 9% sack rate (fourth-highest) despite playing behind the third-best offensive line in pass-block win rate.
Pittsburgh ranks fifth in pass-rush win rate, and it can throw unique pressure looks to keep Hurts guessing all game. The Steelers have the personnel in the front seven to match up with the Eagles’ run-blocking and force Hurts into more passing situations than he’s seen all year. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fifth in EPA/play, and it’s the best Philadelphia has seen all season.
The Steelers also boast a special teams advantage in this game. Pittsburgh ranks second in special teams DVOA, while the Eagles rank 13th. Chris Boswell has been automatic this year, hitting 36 of 39 field goals, including 11 of 13 attempts of 50+ yards. Jake Elliott, meanwhile, has hit just 18 of 24 field goals, including 0 of 5 from 50+ yards.
Mike Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65%) as an underdog, the most profitable coach of the last 20 years. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, is 27-9-1 ATS (75%) as an underdog behind a defense allowing 20 points per game or less, like the Steelers are. Even without Pickens, it’s easy to craft a path to the Steelers covering as an underdog once again.
Verdict: Lean Steelers +5.5
Colts vs. Broncos
This game carries massive playoff implications in the AFC. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Colts will have a 66% chance to reach the postseason with a win and an 11% chance with a loss. The Broncos, meanwhile, will sit at 89% to make the playoffs with a win and 42% with a loss. With upcoming games against the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs, it’s crunch time for Sean Payton’s team.
Bo Nix has improved every week during his rookie season despite not having a run game to depend on — the Broncos rank just 26th in rushing DVOA. After injuries to key players DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore earlier this year, the Colts have a fully healthy defense that could give Nix some issues. While not an elite pressure unit, Indianapolis plays steady zone coverage with a heavy dose of Cover 3 and rarely allows big plays through the air.
Meanwhile, it will be fascinating to watch Anthony Richardson square off with this elite Denver defense that ranks fifth in DVOA. Richardson’s rushing upside should be on full display against a man-heavy, blitzing Vance Joseph defense, and I’ll be interested in a rushing prop for him this week. Richardson has also improved as a passer, ranking eighth in PFF’s passing grades and 4th in big-time throw rate since returning as the starter in Week 10.
Keep an eye out for the practice reports for the Broncos this week, as Riley Moss’s status is critical in this one. The Denver cornerback missed their narrow win over the Browns in Week 13, and Levi Wallace was torched repeatedly by Jameis Winston. If Moss is out again, it could open up opportunities for downfield explosive passes from Richardson, who leads the NFL in deep pass attempt rate.
I lean towards the Colts covering as road underdogs at first blush, but I need more clarity on their offensive line situation. Indianapolis was on its third-string center against the Patriots before the bye, while right tackle Braden Smith’s status is one to monitor. I’m waiting on this game for now.
Verdict: Lean Colts +4
Buccaneers vs. Chargers
The Buccaneers are surging after three straight wins coming off their bye week, but those games came against the Giants (27th), Panthers (30th), and Raiders (28th), three of the NFL's worst teams in terms of total DVOA. This week’s West Coast road trip resembles a significant step up in weight class against the Chargers, who rank 9th in total DVOA.
Justin Herbert performed admirably well on Sunday Night Football despite being without Ladd McConkey, whose status came down to game time. McConkey should return this week to continue his remarkable rookie season against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 31st in passing success rate allowed.
The Bucs are shorthanded in the secondary currently, with Antoine Winfield Jr. suffering a knee injury and joining fellow safeties Jordan Whitehead and Mike Edwards on the shelf. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka also sustained an injury last week, weakening a below-average pass-rush unit. Tampa Bay blitzes at the fifth-highest rate to compensate for a lack of pass-rushers who can win one-on-one, but the Chargers have one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL, and Justin Herbert is PFF’s highest-graded passer against the blitz.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense is affected by rookie standout Bucky Irving's hip and back issues, which limited him to just ten snaps on Sunday. Sapping that early down explosiveness will hurt an offense that is already short on playmakers after losing Chris Godwin earlier this season.
While the home field may not be worth much at SoFi Stadium, the Chargers have a significant special teams advantage, ranking 12th in DVOA, while the Buccaneers rank 25th. This game looks priced adequately to me, but I lean towards the Chargers picking up the win at home.
Verdict: Lean Chargers -3
Patriots vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are reeling after three straight losses. At one point, Arizona looked like the team to beat in the NFC West, but after Sunday’s loss to Seattle, it has just a 5% chance to make the postseason, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. It’s tough to get a feel for where the Cardinals are mentally after that downswing, but in come the Patriots, who are ripe for the picking.
Drew Petzing’s play-calling has come under scrutiny in recent weeks, but Arizona should have its way with this New England defense that ranks dead last in DVOA. In particular, the Cardinals’ heavy personnel run game packages should give fits to a Patriots unit ranked 26th in defensive line yards. I’ll be interested in a potential play on James Conner’s rushing yardage prop here.
If I had to play this game, I’d look to back the Cardinals in the first quarter. Slow starts have killed Arizona during this recent stretch as it ranks 28th in first-quarter EPA/play since Week 12, but from Weeks 1-11, the Cardinals ranked first in the NFL in EPA/play in the opening period. They should come into this one with a strong script to take advantage of this Patriots defense.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals 1Q -0.5
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NFL Week 15 Picks
Cowboys vs. Panthers
It took several weeks and a benching, but Dave Canales is starting to work his magic with Bryce Young. Since returning to the starting lineup in Week 8, Young has registered an 80.2 PFF passing grade (11th), 7.3% big-time throw rate (4th), and 0.075 EPA/play (19th). He’s shown a strong command of the line of scrimmage and is putting several throws on tape each week that remind everyone why he was the first-overall pick.
The Cowboys’ defense looks ripe for the picking here as they have allowed opposing passers 8.0 yards per attempt (third-most). Dallas has relied on its pass rush to mask holes in the secondary, ranking third in pressure rate. Still, the Panthers’ offensive line has played at a league-average level, and Young has performed admirably well under pressure lately.
Meanwhile, Cooper Rush has left a ton to be desired as the Dallas starter. Since entering the lineup in Week 10, he ranks 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE. That’s despite recent matchups against some of the league’s worst pass defenses by DVOA — Commanders (26th), Giants (28th), and Bengals (30th).
The Panthers will lean on Chuba Hubbard, who is coming off another strong performance against the Cowboys’ porous run defense that ranks dead last in EPA/rush allowed. Carolina is favored for the first time since December 18, 2022, and I’m backing them to emerge with a win.
Verdict: Bet Panthers Moneyline
Chiefs vs. Browns
With a win over the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs moved to 10-0 in one-score games, tying the record set by the Minnesota Vikings in 2022. They keep winning games, but there are serious issues on this roster, starting with a pass defense that ranks 28th in EPA since losing starting cornerback Jaylen Watson in Week 8. An injury to Joshua Williams on Sunday would further complicate these issues.
The Chiefs don’t have the personnel in the secondary to effectively run Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzing, man-coverage defense, which results in downfield passing opportunities for opposing quarterbacks. If there’s one thing we can bank on with Jameis Winston, it’s his willingness to test any defense vertically. In particular, look for Jerry Jeudy to continue his recent hot streak — he’s averaging 113 receiving yards per game in Winston’s starts.
Kansas City also has a left tackle problem. The hope was that D.J. Humphries would resolve their issues after returning from last season’s torn ACL, but he allowed five pressures before leaving with a hamstring injury on Sunday. The Chiefs could be back to Wanya Morris at left tackle, which ranks 72nd out of 85 qualified tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.
After a slew of injuries on defense earlier this year, the Browns can surround star pass rusher Myles Garrett with a mostly healthy roster. Garrett has led one of the best pass rush units in the NFL — the Browns rank first in pressure rate — and Denzel Ward has enjoyed a tremendous season as one of the best lockdown corners in the league.
The Browns can exploit some of the Chiefs’ deficiencies, and they are live for the outright upset here. Bet them down to +3.5.
Verdict: Bet Browns +4.5
Dolphins vs. Texans
The Texans' offense was expected to take a significant step forward in C.J. Stroud’s second season. Still, offensive line woes and injuries to stars Joe Mixon and Nico Collins have complicated matters. While Stefon Diggs is out for the year, the rest of the offense will be the healthiest it has been all year, coming off its bye week here.
Houston’s early down struggles have been well documented, but it’s been the second halves of games when we’ve seen it falter. The Texans average 14 points per game in the first half (sixth) and just 9.7 points per game after halftime (23rd). I’d expect a strong scripted portion from the Texans early in this game, especially with Mixon poised to take advantage of a Miami run defense that ranks 24th by DVOA.
Miami’s offense has improved significantly since Tua Tagovailoa’s healthy return, ranking seventh in EPA/play since Week 8. However, this is the best defense it’s played over that span — Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA and has been elite against both the run and pass. The Texans lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate, and Tagovailoa is a very different quarterback under duress. His 0.7% turnover-worthy play rate from a clean pocket (6th-lowest) spikes to 7.1% under pressure (6th-highest).
The Texans are 11-2 ATS in the first half this season, tying with the Lions for the best mark in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are just 5-8 ATS in the first half this season, ranking 27th in the league. I expect a strong game plan from Houston off its bye week, and I’ll back them to head to the locker room with a halftime lead.
Verdict: Bet Texans 1H -0.5
Packers vs. Seahawks
The Mike Macdonald defense has taken hold in Seattle over the past several weeks, and it’s produced remarkable results. Since their Week 10 bye, the Seahawks rank top-five in defensive EPA/play and success rate. Macdonald runs a complex scheme that requires all three levels of the defense to be in sync, so the slow start wasn’t shocking, but Seattle is playing as well as anyone in the league defensively right now.
That sets up for a fascinating matchup against Jordan Love, who ranks third in EPA+CPOE over the last four weeks. While he’s been playing at a high level, the Packers are a run-first offense that ranks second in rush rate over expectation with a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs on early downs. However, the Seahawks rank third in run defense success rate since Week 10, as linebacker Ernest Jones has been a massive addition.
Offensively, the Seahawks have been inconsistent due in large part to an offensive line that ranks just 23rd in pass-blocking per PFF. However, the Packers don’t generate much pressure — they rank 26th in pass-rush win rate and 22nd in pressure rate. That’s enormous for Geno Smith, who has thrown for nine touchdowns to two interceptions from a clean pocket compared to five touchdowns and ten interceptions under pressure.
The Packers have continued to miss the presence of Jaire Alexander in the secondary, and now they’re dealing with injuries to safeties Evan Williams and Javon Bullard. Without a consistent pass rush to depend on, Smith should have time to stand in the pocket and deliver strikes downfield to D.K. Metcalf and breakout wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
While Green Bay has a rest advantage in this game, I believe Seattle is still being undervalued in the market on the heels of a four-game winning streak. I’ll take the full field goal with the home underdogs, as Macdonald’s defense should give Love fits all night.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +3
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