The stretch run has arrived. Three weeks to go in the regular season, and it's time to look at some league-wide trends before going game-by-game.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 16 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Dec. 18, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Close as Ever
Lamar Going for History
As an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-0 ATS in franchise history. Lamar Jackson is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS vs. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers in his career. Against all other teams, Lamar is 52-39-1 ATS.
In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 23-4-3 ATS in this series last 20 years. The underdog is 16-2-1 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 5.6 points per game.
Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
A New World
Falcons Big Favorites
The Falcons made their move to start Michael Penix Jr. this week and bench Kirk Cousins. The line got up to -10 and directly moved to -8.5 with the news for Atlanta.
In the last 40 years, no rookie QB in Week 10 or later has made his first career start as a favorite of 7 pts or higher. The closest were Lamar Jackson in 2018 and Jim Everett in 1986 as 6.5-pt favorites.
The New Black and Blue
Domination
The NFC North is now 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) vs. other divisions this year — the 30-10 mark is the 2nd-best for a full season by any division since 1990 (2002 NFC East), and the ATS mark is the best for any division since the 2019 NFC West.
Need More Than Two
The Worst Betting History
The Titans are 2-12 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 14 games since the 2016 Browns.
2-12 ATS or Worse Thru 14 Games in the Super Bowl Era:
2024 Titans, 2-12 ATS
2016 Browns, 2-12 ATS
2007 Ravens, 2-12 ATS
1987 Bengals, 2-12 ATS
Overall, the worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007. That 2007 Ravens team is also the only squad to start 2-13 ATS for a season, which Tennessee could join Sunday.
Road Advantage
Changing of the Guard
This season, home underdogs are 35-48-3 ATS (42%). Over a full season, that would be the 2nd-least profitable mark for any season since 1990, behind just 2005.
On the other side, road favorites went 7-0 SU last week. They are now 14-1 SU over the last three weeks and 34-8 SU since Week 9.
More Oranges
Can't Hold On
Teams to lead at half are 87-124-3 against the second half spread (41%) this year, the worst season over the last 20 years.
In an over 700-game sample size in the last 3 years, they are just 44% against the second half spread. Only 7 of 32 teams are above .500 2H ATS when having the lead over this sample size. Holding a lead has been hard.
Four for Fighting
NFC Beast
In 2024, the Eagles are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the NFC East, beating the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders all once.
Eagles haven’t won four consecutive games ATS vs. NFC East since 2011-12 behind Michael Vick.
An Unlikely Streak
Rodgers Goes for No. 9
No QB has had a bigger advantage in the betting world against another opponent than Aaron Rodgers against the Rams.
In his career, Rodgers is 8-0 ATS against the Rams, the most wins without a loss for any QB in the Bet Labs database. The next closest is Tua Tagovailoa being 7-0 ATS vs. Patriots.
Every NFL Game for Week 16
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Challenging Stretch for Chargers Begins
➤The Chargers start a stretch of teams playing 3 games in 11 days after playing Sunday-Sunday-Thursday.
Overall in history, the impact is found more on the road than at home.
Home: 55.3% SU
Road: 43.95% SU (4-9 SU this season)
Thursday Night Struggles for Home Teams
➤Thursday home teams are just 46-57-1 ATS since 2019, including 41-50-1 ATS in night Thursday games.
Rookie Bo Nix Faces Tough Road Challenge
➤Rookie Bo Nix is getting the start for the Broncos on the road on TNF. Since 2006, rookie QBs are 15-25 SU on Thursday Night Football. Over the last two seasons they are 4-3 SU, with Nix beating the Saints on the road earlier this season. When those QBs are on the road, that record falls to 8-20 SU since 2006.
Sean Payton’s Bounce-Back Opportunities
➤Don’t count out Sean Payton. After his teams throw an interception in consecutive games, he is 34-32-2 ATS as a head coach but 12-6-1 ATS when he’s listed as an underdog, including 17-2 in a 6-pt teaser.
Bo Nix Shines on the Road
➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 6-1 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 6.1 PPG.
Best QBs ATS on the Road This Season
Joe Burrow 7-1 ATS
Bo Nix 6-1 ATS
Jalen Hurts 6-1 ATS
Jared Goff 6-1 ATS
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road, he is 79-59-3 ATS (57%), including 32-15-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL.
Sean Payton’s Night Game Record
➤This will be Sean Payton’s 8th night game with the Denver Broncos. He is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS this season.
Payton has had success on short rest as well. He is 1-0 SU/ATS with Bo Nix and 24-18-1 ATS overall in his career, including 9-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Chargers’ Interception Woes
➤Justin Herbert threw just his 2nd interception of the season last week in the home loss vs. the Buccaneers, breaking a streak of 357 pass attempts.
Even though interceptions have been hard to come by for L.A. recently with Herbert, they are now 1-7 SU/ATS in their last 8 games when the Chargers have thrown an INT at any point in the game.
Chargers’ Defensive Struggles Continue
➤The full season numbers may not do it justice, but the Chargers defense has struggled the last few weeks, facing a few good offenses. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been 2-3 SU; they are 21st in EPA/play, 23rd in success rate and 20th or worse in dropback and rush EPA. The over is now 4-2 in their last six games. They were 19-4 to the under in the 23 games before that.
Herbert’s Second Half Spread Struggles
➤Herbert has struggled against the second half spread in his career. Herbert is 24-48-5 (33%) against the second half spread in his career. He’s 12-32-2 against the second half spread when leading at halftime as well.
Herbert Excels on Short Rest at Home
➤So far, during the 2024 season, Herbert has started two games on short rest against the Saints and Falcons, and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games.
In his career, Herbert hasn’t had an issue putting up points on short rest at home, averaging 32.2 PPG.
Saturday NFL Games Bring ATS Edge
➤Welcome to Saturday NFL football.
Since 2003, we’ve had 113 total games played during the regular season on a Saturday – almost all coming late in the season like this one.
Road teams are 65-42-6 ATS (61%) in regular season Saturday games.
Chiefs’ Backup QB History
➤Since 2013, the Chiefs have only had to go to a backup QB 7 times, with the last time coming in 2020. KC is 4-3 SU/ATS in those seven games, including 3-2 SU at home. The Chiefs averaged almost 23 PPG in those 7 games, never scoring below 19 pts.
Chiefs’ Second Half Spread Slump
➤The Chiefs have lost five consecutive games against the second half spread, with their last cover coming over a month ago. Their last 5-game 2H ATS losing stretch came back in 2020.
Reid’s Track Record as an Underdog
➤If Mahomes doesn’t play, the Chiefs will surely close as home underdogs against the Texans.
Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 27-14 ATS as an underdog. When he’s a dog without Mahomes, he is 15-12 ATS.
Oddly enough, Reid hasn’t been great as a home ‘dog. He is 3-4 ATS with the Chiefs and just 13-14-1 ATS with the Eagles. Since 2003, he’s 7-15-1 ATS as a home dog.
Wentz Struggles on Early Downs
➤If Carson Wentz does get the start, here’s an idea of the QB we may see.
Since 2022, he’s had 385 plays at QB, which ranks 52nd in the NFL. Of the 65 QBs with at least 200 plays, here are some of his ranks: 40th EPA/play, 44th success rate, 56th in completion pct over expected.
Wentz’s biggest issue has been on early downs. On 1st & 2nd down, he’s 54th of 63 QBs in EPA/play and 62nd of 63 QBs in success rate, ahead of just Tommy DeVito.
In his last ten starts, for the Rams, Commanders and Colts, Wentz is 3-7 SU/ATS, with only one of those wins coming at home.
Texans’ First Half Dominance
➤No team has seen such a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 12-2 against the first half spread, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 24-9 1H ATS, including 24-7 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 3rd-best among 263 QBs over the last 20 years behind just Jared Goff and Joe Flacco.
Houston is also 3-11 against the second half spread, the 2nd-worst mark of any team in the NFL, just ahead of the 49ers.
Stroud’s ATS Performance by Situation
➤Stroud has made 31 career starts in the NFL. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
Stroud has faced an opposing defense allowing 20 PPG or less and he is 4-4 ATS in those games, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
Stroud’s Games Lean Toward the Under
➤In Stroud’s career, the under is 20-10-1, the 2nd-best mark for any QB since he was drafted.
The total in this contest is around 40/41 this week. With a total of 45+, the under is 11-3 when CJ Stroud starts. Totals under 45 are just 9-7-1 to the under.
Stroud Excels Against Winning Teams
➤Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 9-5 ATS, including 6-2 ATS when listed as an underdog.
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Steelers Rare Underdogs Against Ravens
➤The Steelers haven’t closed as a 6-point underdog or higher against the Ravens since 2012. They’ve only done so twice since the Ravens were established in 1996. Those games were started by Dennis Dixon (2009, +9) and Charlie Batch (2012, +7).
As an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-0 ATS in franchise history. Under Tomlin, they are 6-0 ATS as a ‘dog of more than 3 pts vs. Ravens.
Lamar Jackson’s Steelers Struggles
➤Lamar Jackson is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS vs. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers in his career. Against all other teams, Lamar is 52-39-1 ATS. Lamar isn’t even 0-2 ATS vs. any other head coach entering this week.
In the Bet Labs database since 2003, only four QBs have been 0-6 ATS vs. a single team:
Jon Kitna 0-6 ATS vs. Packers
Justin Fields 0-6 ATS vs. Packers
Mac Jones 0-6 ATS vs. Dolphins
Steve McNair 0-6 ATS vs. Colts
This is the list Lamar would join with an ATS loss on Sunday.
Underdogs Thrive in Steelers-Ravens Rivalry
➤Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 29-10-3 ATS (74%).
In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 23-4-3 ATS in this series last 20 years.
The underdog is 16-2-1 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 5.6 points per game.
In the regular season, the underdog is 24-6-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
Tomlin vs. Harbaugh Matchup Trends
➤Mike Tomlin is 21-15 SU, 19-14-3 ATS vs. John Harbaugh. When he’s favorite, he's 6-12-1 ATS. When he’s the ‘dog, he's 13-2-2 ATS.
Close Games Define Steelers-Ravens Rivalry
➤Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4.
Since the start of 2015, the Steelers and Ravens have met 19 times; 16 of those 19 games had a final margin of seven or fewer points.
High Totals Favor the Under
➤Steelers-Ravens over/under is 45/46 this week. Last 20 years, when the total in this series is 45 or higher, the under is 7-2.
AFC North Underdogs Dominate
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 50-32 ATS (61%) since 2018, best of any division, they are .500 ATS or better in seven straight seasons and they are 28-17 ATS since 2021.
Tomlin’s Post-Loss Resilience
➤The “rah-rah” spot for Mike Tomlin comes after a loss, where he is 57.8% ATS in his career. When he’s an underdog after an SU loss, his teams are 24-11 ATS (69%), including 10-3 ATS vs. a divisional opponent.
Tomlin’s Divisional Underdog Success
➤When Tomlin is listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent, the Steelers are 22-15 SU, 26-9-2 ATS. Tomlin hasn’t finished a season under .500 ATS in this spot since 2014 and is 2-0 SU/ATS in 2024 so far.
Steelers Win and Cover Streak
➤Since the start of the 2022 season, when the Steelers win, they cover. They are 29-0 ATS in games they have won straight up since then, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
Steelers’ First Half Struggles
➤The Steelers offense had issues starting last week. They had 4 punts in 5 possessions for -19 total yards.
Nothing new. Since 2021, Pittsburgh has been 25-42 1H ATS, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. They are under .500 1H ATS in six straight seasons.
Joe Burrow’s Struggles Against Cleveland
➤In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 40-32-1 SU (56%) and 44-28-1 ATS (61%) — Burrow is 2-5 SU vs. Browns compared to 38-27-1 SU vs. all other teams. Cleveland is Burrow’s least profitable opponent on the moneyline.
Burrow is just 1-2 SU at home vs. Browns — a loss on Sunday would be his most losses at home vs. any opponent.
Burrow’s Performance Based on Rest
➤How has Joe Burrow performed based on rest?
On short rest, Burrow is 8-3 ATS. He is 8-7-1 ATS on extended rest during the season, not including Week 1s. On normal 7-day rest, Burrow is 27-14 ATS.
Burrow Dominates Below .500 Opponents
➤Burrow has dominated bad opponents in his career, going 16-7 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU, including 12-3 ATS since the start of the 2022 season.
AFC North Underdogs Cash In
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 50-32 ATS (61%) since 2018, best of any division, they are .500 ATS or better in seven straight seasons and they are 28-17 ATS since 2021.
Kevin Stefanski’s ATS Struggles
➤The Browns are 10-18 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 154 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. With an ATS loss to the Bengals, Stefanski would move into last place. Stefanski is 27-27-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
Browns Transition to Dorian Thompson-Robinson
➤The Browns made the move from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
In Jameis Winston’s last ten starts, his teams are 2-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.7 PPG.
Now they have Robinson under center. This will be his 4th career start, all for the Browns. In those previous three starts, Cleveland has scored 28 total pts. He has never closed above a 2-point underdog, with all three games having tight spreads. DTR had just one 20+ yd completion in the three starts and 112 pass attempts.
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Caleb Williams Struggles Against Division Foes
➤Caleb Williams is 1 of 3 QBs 0-4 SU or worse vs. divisional opponents this year, joining Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew.
Bears are 2-14 SU vs. NFC North last three seasons, the worst mark for any team.
ATS hasn’t been any better. Since 2019, the Bears are 10-22-2 ATS vs. the NFC North, the worst mark for any team vs. their own division. During that span, only Caleb Williams is .500 ATS or better; he’s at 2-1-1 ATS.
Caleb Williams: Interception-Free but Winless
➤It hasn’t all been Caleb’s fault. He’s now gone 8 straight games without an interception.
Most consecutive losses for QB with no INT since the merger:
Caleb Williams 8, 2024
Cody Kessler 5, 2016
Jeff George 5, 1993-94
Lions Thrive After a Loss
➤Backing the Lions after a loss has been a profitable betting strategy. They’ve won and covered nine straight games after a loss dating back to November of 2022.
With the Lions, Goff is 18-8 ATS after a SU loss, including 7-2 ATS vs. NFC North opponents.
Jared Goff’s Dominance in Division Games
➤With the Lions, Jared Goff is 15-6-1 ATS vs. NFC North. Since 2018 with the Lions and Rams, Goff is 25-12-2 ATS vs. his own division, 2nd-best mark of 123 QBs behind just Dak Prescott. Goff’s 15-6-1 ATS mark vs. NFC North is the 2nd-best of any QB in the last 20 years behind just Aaron Rodgers.
Bears’ Futility Against Winning Teams
➤ The Bears just can’t get the big win. This season, Chicago is 0-6 SU vs. teams above .500. Since the start of 2022, they are 2-17 SU in that spot and they are 6-30 SU since 2020.
Lions First Half ATS Dominance
➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 37-13-1 (74%) against the first half spread. Last week, they lost the 1H ATS 21-14 to the Bills. Against divisional opponents during this streak, they are 13-2-1 1H ATS.
Panthers’ Struggles as Favorites Continue
➤The Panthers broke their 5-game ATS winning streak last week, losing as a favorite. Carolina has lost ten consecutive games ATS as a favorite dating back to 2021.
With the loss last week, Bryce Young is now the least profitable QB for the Panthers in the last 20 years at 10-14-1 ATS. Overall, he is just 5-7-1 ATS after an ATS loss in his previous game.
Of those 25 starts, Bryce is 7-5 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU and 3-9-1 ATS vs. teams above .500.
Kyler Murray’s Road Unders Profitability
➤Kyler's road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 25-12-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year — he’s ranked 2nd of 277 QBs since 2005 in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite: 24-18 to the over in his career.
Cardinals’ Early Down Offensive Decline
➤Cardinals might have gotten on track beating New England last week, but since Week 11, they are just 1-3 SU and Kyler’s numbers aren’t great, especially on early downs.
Since Week 11 (of 34 QBs) | On Early Downs (of 33 QBs)
EPA/play: 22nd | 24th
Success rate: 17th | 15th
CPOE: 19th | 20th
In Weeks 1 -11, Kyler was top-10 in EPA/play and success rate metrics.
Cardinals’ Second Half Betting Edge
➤The Cardinals have been a better 2nd half team from a betting standpoint this season. They are 9-5 against the 3rd quarter spread, 8-6 against the 4th quarter spread and 8-5-1 against the second half spread.
Kyler’s Seasonal ATS Split
➤Kyler’s teams historically do better earlier in the season…
17-21-2 ATS in November or later
26-14 ATS in September and October
Kyler’s Struggles in Competitive Games Late Season
➤In his career, Kyler has started 38 games where his team is .500 SU or better, and Arizona is 17-21 ATS in those games. When that game is played in November or later, they are 7-14 ATS, including 9-14 ATS as a favorite when played at any point.
Panthers’ First Half Defensive Woes
➤The Panthers give up a lot of points, especially in the first half. This season, Panther games are 11-3 to the first half over, going over the 1H total by 4.6 PPG.
No team has finished with 3 1H over losses or fewer in a full regular season since the Cowboys (13-3) in 2020, while the Bucs in 2019 went 14-2 to the 1H over — which is the golden standard in terms of 1H overs over the last 20 years.
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Jalen Hurts Leading Eagles’ Dominance
➤The Eagles are currently on a 10-game SU win streak, and during that stretch, Jalen Hurts has been absurd in his play on the field.
Hurts has 14 pass TDs, 1 INT and 12 rushing TDs, for a 26 touchdown and three turnover span for the Eagles. During that 10-game span, Hurts is the best QB in the NFL in CPOE and top-7 in EPA/play and success rate.
Hurts’ ATS Performance by Opponent Strength
➤In Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 26-24-1 ATS as a favorite, 14-6 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
Eagles’ Defense Among the Best in the NFL
➤The Eagles defense has been one of the best stories of the season.
Pass defense is allowing 173 yards per game, the best mark in the NFL.
Rush defense is allowing 102.2 yards per game, 7th-best mark in the NFL.
Here is the list of defenses to allow 2,500 pass yds or less and 1,500 rush yds or less through 14 games since 2010: 2024 Eagles, 2023 Browns, 2019 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2010 Chargers.
The 2013 Seahawks won it all, the ‘23 CLE and the ‘19 NE lost in the Wild Card round, while the Chargers didn’t even make the playoffs.
Eagles’ Success Against Washington
➤ The Eagles have dominated Washington lately. They are 12-3 SU in their last 15 meetings dating back to 2017, including 6-1 SU in their last seven trips to D.C.
Slow Starts but Strong Second Quarters for Eagles
➤The Eagles are 3-11 against the first quarter spread, the season-worst mark for any team in the NFL. They have 3 1st quarter TDs and 3 1st quarter turnovers this year, including 20 1st quarter punts, T-2nd most behind just the Bears.
The script went the other way last week, with the Eagles winning the 1Q and losing the 2Q. Philly is 11-3 against the 2Q spread this year, T-2nd-best mark in the NFL behind the Lions.
Washington’s Fourth Quarter Struggles
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 10-3-1
2Q ATS: 8-6
3Q ATS: 8-6
4Q ATS: 3-11
Washington’s 3-11 ATS mark in the 4Q is tied for the worst record in the NFL with the 49ers and Chargers.
Jayden Daniels’ Performance Against Strong Teams
➤This season, Jayden Daniels is 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU – with his only SU win coming vs. Bears in a Hail Mary.
Eagles’ NFC East ATS Streak
➤In 2024, the Eagles are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the NFC East, beating the Cowboys, Giants and Commanders all once.
Eagles haven’t won four consecutive games ATS vs. NFC East since 2011-12 behind Michael Vick.
Teams undefeated ATS vs. own division this year: Colts (4-0), Chargers (3-0-1), Eagles (3-0).
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Falcons Bench Cousins for Penix Jr.
➤The Falcons made their move to start Michael Penix Jr. this week and bench Kirk Cousins. The line got up to -10 and directly moved to -8.5 with the news for Atlanta.
Cousins had only closed as a double-digit favorite nine times in his career, and he covered the spread just once, going 1-8-1 ATS in that spot.
Historic First Start for Rookie QBs as Big Favorites
➤In the last 40 years, no rookie QB in Week 10 or later has made his first career start as a favorite of 7 pts or higher. The closest were Lamar Jackson in 2018 and Jim Everett in 1986 as 6.5-pt favorites.
Penix’s First Start and Rookie QB Struggles
➤Penix will be making his first career start. Over the last decade, QBs in their first start in their rookie year are 21-43-1 SU. Caleb Williams was the only one to win his first start in Week 1 this season.
With Penix getting his first career start in Week 16, he becomes just the 21st QB to do it in Week 16 or later in his rookie year. Those QBs are 5-15 SU in those games, including 2-5 SU at home.
Even after a TD pass in his last game vs. the Raiders, Cousins had 1 TD pass and 9 interceptions in his last five starts. Cousins was the 1st QB with 1 TD pass or fewer and 9+ INT in a 5-game start span since Drew Brees and Rex Grossman back in 2007.
Kirk Cousins’ Decline Sparks Change
➤Since Week 10, Cousins has an EPA/play 30th of 32 QBs and he is 29th in completion pct over expected. The offense scored more than 17 pts once, and his turnover-worthy throw rate was 5.7% (it is 4.9% for the full season), the 2nd-highest mark in that span ahead of just Jameis Winston.
Falcons’ ATS Struggles After Wins
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 9-20-1 ATS after an SU win, the worst mark in the NFL. Raheem Morris is 13-13 ATS after an SU win but 6-11 ATS as a favorite or a dog of 3 or less.
Giants’ SU and ATS Woes Continue
➤Entering this week, the Giants have lost nine consecutive games straight up, including going 1-8 ATS during that stretch.
Both the Giants and Jaguars are on a 9+ game SU losing streak entering this week. When they are 1-8 ATS or worse in that span, they are just 4-7-1 ATS in their next game — the woes usually continue.
Giants Eye No. 1 Draft Pick
➤The Giants have the inside track at the No. 1 pick in the draft entering Week 16. If they close +10 vs. Falcons, they will be double-digit underdogs in consecutive games for the 2nd time in the last two seasons. They’ve only done that twice between 1980 and 2022 (in 2004 and 2021).
Titans’ Historic ATS Struggles
➤The Titans are 2-12 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 14 games since the 2016 Browns.
2-12 ATS or Worse Thru 14 Games in the Super Bowl Era:
2024 Titans, 2-12 ATS
2016 Browns, 2-12 ATS
2007 Ravens, 2-12 ATS
1987 Bengals, 2-12 ATS
Overall, the worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007. That 2007 Ravens team is also the only squad to start 2-13 ATS for a season, which Tennessee could join Sunday.
Titans Turn to Mason Rudolph
➤The Titans moved from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. Rudolph’s offense has scored 17 pts or less in four of his last five starts, and he’s failed to cover the spread in four straight starts.
Looking through a few numbers, Rudolph is the safer option. Among 64 QBs with at least 100 plays over the last two seasons:
– Levis is 51st in EPA/play and Rudolph is 21st.
– Levis is 52nd in success rate, while Rudolph is 21st in SR.
– Rudolph is 6th in the NFL in CPOE; Levis is 30th.
Colts Perfect ATS in AFC South
➤Colts have played four games vs. the AFC South this season entering this matchup, and they are 4-0 ATS in those games, being listed as an underdog in all four games.
That isn’t the case this week. The Colts are favored at home vs. the Titans. The Colts have won and covered three straight games vs. Titans, all since the start of last season.
Anthony Richardson’s Accuracy Woes
➤The Anthony Richardson completion pct stats just continue to get worse.
In 253 attempts, his completion pct is 47%. Since 2000, only two other QBs have ended a season with a completion pct below 50% and 250+ pass attempts: Tebow 2011 and Akili Smith 2000.
Richardson’s Struggles as a Favorite
➤In Richardson’s 14 career NFL starts, he has never closed above a 3-point favorite. In the pros, he is 2-2 ATS as a favorite, but if you look even back to college, from 2021-22, Florida in general —with Richardson in the mix— went 4-14 ATS as a favorite.
Titans Seek Road Rebound
➤This is a business trip for the Titans. Teams off an SU loss, who hit the road in their next game, cover 53% of the time in a 700+ game sample size since 2019, 60-52 ATS this season. A lot of matches there this week.
Titans’ Second Half ATS and ML Struggles
➤Even when the Titans are getting pts in the second half, they still aren’t winning outright. Since the start of the 2022 season, Tennessee has been 9-36-3 (20%) against the 2nd half moneyline, by far the worst mark in the NFL. During that span, they are 13-34-1 against the 2nd half spread, also the worst mark in the league.
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Stafford’s Red-Hot Streak
➤No QB in the NFL has been hotter lately than Matthew Stafford. Since Week 11, Stafford has 10 TDs and 0 INT, the Rams are 4-1 SU/ATS and even with the rained-out mess of TNF last week, Stafford is 4th in EPA/play and 9th in success rate in that time span.
Rodgers’ Perfect Record Against the Rams
➤No QB has had a bigger advantage in the betting world against another opponent than Aaron Rodgers against the Rams.
In his career, Rodgers is 8-0 ATS against the Rams, the most wins without a loss for any QB in the Bet Labs database. The next closest is Tua Tagovailoa being 7-0 ATS vs. Patriots.
Rodgers’ Struggles With Accuracy
➤Overall this season, Aaron Rodgers has 82 total “poor throws” — throws off target, 2nd-most in the NFL behind Caleb Williams. Rodgers has a 17.2% bad throw pct this year.
Of the 38 QBs to have at least 200 plays, Aaron Rodgers is 25th in success rate, 35th in CPOE and 29th in aDOT.
First Half Woes for Rodgers
➤The first half has been an issue for Rodgers. He is 12-19-1 1H against the spread since the start of 2022, the 5th-worst mark for any QB in the NFL.
Against non-conference opponents in that span in the 1H, he is 1-8 ATS.
McVay and Stafford’s Success as Favorites
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams. They are 28-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 8-15 SU as underdogs.
As a duo, McVay and Stafford have been very good playing on the road out east. They are 8-5 SU in those games, including a perfect 7-0 SU when listed as a favorite.
Stafford’s Cold Weather Challenges
➤Matthew Stafford has started 228 games in his NFL career, and he has never started a game below 25°, with his last game in freezing temperatures back in 2021. He is 3-5-1 ATS in freezing temperatures in his career in the NFL.
Playoff Hopefuls’ Late-Season ATS Struggles
➤Beware of the team fighting for playoff position against a team a bit out of the race. Last 20 years, teams with a win pct of 50% to 59% in weeks 16, 17 and 18, facing a team below .500 SU are 43-69-4 ATS (38.4%). Since 2022, they are 9-18-1 ATS.
This week they are the Rams, Falcons, Cardinals and Bucs.
Rams Fight for Division Title
➤Rams started 1-4 SU and are now fighting for their division. Last decade, only two teams won their division after starting 1-4 SU or worse: 2020 Washington and 2015 Texans — they both lost their Wild Card games.
December Kings: LaFleur vs. McVay
➤Matt LaFleur is known as Mr. December with a 19-3 SU record, but Sean McVay has been the cover champ. He is 24-10-1 ATS in December, the 3rd-best of any head coach since 2003.
McVay is 14-2 ATS in December, dating back to 2021.
Vikings Smash Win Total Expectations
➤The Vikings are 12-2 SU and have eclipsed their win total of 6.5 by 5.5 games already.
They are the first team to go over their win total by 5.5 games since the 2019 Ravens (5.5). Only four teams since realignment back in 2002 have gone over their win total by 6 games or more and none since the 2015 Panthers.
Short Rest Challenge for Vikings
➤A short prep matchup here for Minnesota, coming off a home game on MNF and now traveling to Seattle. On short rest, Darnold is just 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in his career.
Playing on MNF and then having to hit the road has historically been a tough spot for teams, but not so much recently. They are 12-5 SU/ATS this season, as well as 33-31 SU and 34-30 ATS since 2021.
Sam Howell’s Struggles With Seattle’s Offense
➤Even if Geno Smith plays, there is a chance he aggravates his injury, and we see Sam Howell again. Here is a reminder of how Seattle’s drives looked last week when Howell entered:
-2 yds, -6 yds (2 sacks), 0 yds, 45 yds (24-yd Charbonnet TD), 5 yds, -6 yds (INT, sack), -4 yds (sack), 11 yds (all rushes)
NFC North Dominance Across Divisions
➤The NFC North is now 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) vs. other divisions this year — the 30-10 mark is the 2nd-best for a full season by any division since 1990 (2002 NFC East).
Geno Smith’s Home Vs. Road Splits
➤Geno Smith has been a different QB at home vs. the road.
Home: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS, 68.6% comp pct, 8 TD, 11 INT, 84.1 pass rtg
Road: 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS, 71.5% comp pct, 6 TD, 2 INT, 96.9 pass rtg
Seahawks are 2-6 ATS at home this year, they haven’t lost 7+ games ATS at home since 2004 (finished 1-8 ATS at home including the playoffs).
Seahawks’ Underdog Streak Hits 10
➤Another game, another spot as an underdog.
If the Seahawks close as underdogs vs. Vikings, it will be their 10th consecutive game as an underdog dating back to Week 6. They were last favored in a game back in Week 5 vs. Giants.
Seattle is the 1st team in the Wild Card era to be listed as an underdog in 10 straight games while owning a win pct of above .500 SU at the end of the stretch.
Geno’s Struggles Against Strong Defenses
➤Geno faces a stingy Vikings defense this week. Since 2022, Geno has faced 15 teams allowing 20 PPG or less, and he is 4-10-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG.
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Bills’ Massive Favorite Status Against Patriots
➤In December of last year the Bills closed as 14+ pt favorites against the Patriots — the biggest spread for Buffalo against New England since 1992.
It isn’t every day a team closes as -14 or higher in consecutive games vs. the same opponent. Those who have done it in the last 20 years: 2023 49ers (vs. ARI), Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning.
Bills Aim for Scoring History
➤The Bills are on the verge of history. No team in the Super Bowl era has scored 30+ pts in nine consecutive games within the same season. The last to do eight was the 2013 Broncos.
Eliminating single season, the Broncos own the record at 12 straight games in that 2012-13 run.
Turnover-Free Streak Creates ATS Challenges
➤Since their bye week, the Bills have won 35-10, lost 44-42 and won 48-42, but have 0 turnovers in the three games.
It's not the easiest spot to lay points. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) are 33-45 ATS when their team is on a 3+ game turnover-free stretch.
Decreasing the stretch down to just 2+ games without a turnover, they are 49-74 ATS (39.8%) since 2003.
Patriots’ Struggles as Underdogs
➤Since 2021, the Patriots are 9-32 SU as an underdog, the 3rd-least profitable mark in the NFL, ahead of just the Bears and Falcons. Drake Maye has started his career 2-7 SU as a dog.
Drake Maye’s Interception Streak
➤Definitely not all his fault, especially the pass to Kayshon Boutte last week, but Drake Maye has had an interception now in six straight games, tied for the 3rd-longest streak by a rookie QB since 2000 behind only Blake Bortles with 9 and Zach Mettenberger with 7.
Patriots’ Dire Record When Trailing
➤Don’t fall behind. Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-27 SU and 4-25-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL.
Josh Allen’s ATS Struggles as Heavy Favorite
➤Since the start of last season, Josh Allen has started four games where he is favored above 11 pts. He is 3-0 SU in those games, but 0-3 ATS — dating back to 2022, he is 4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS in his last 4 games in this spot.
Above a TD favorite (-7.5 or more), he is 14-14-3 ATS but 4-7-1 ATS vs. AFC East.
Drake Maye’s First and Second Half ATS Split
➤Drake Maye has made nine starts in the NFL. He is 2-7 against the first half spread, the 2nd-worst mark for any QB in the NFL this season, ahead of just Caleb Williams.
In the second half, Maye is 5-3-1 ATS this year, including 5-1-1 2H ATS in his last six starts.
Lions Create ATS Struggles for Opponents
➤ The Bills beat the Lions last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 5-8 SU and 3-10 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.7 PPG and 17-29 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
Brock Purdy’s ATS Trends
➤Brock Purdy is 18-15 ATS in his NFL career. When favored by 4 points or more, he’s 11-15 ATS. When he’s favored by 3.5 points or less or an underdog, Purdy is 9-5 ATS.
When Purdy starts on the road, the pressure is on. When SF scores under 30 pts with Purdy starting on the road, they are 2-7 ATS.
49ers’ Big Game Disappointment
➤It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations, and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 9-11 SU in their last 20 total games.
49ers’ Second Half ATS Struggles
➤The 49ers are 2-12 against the second half spread this season, and they are 3-15 2H ATS in their last 18 total games dating back to last year.
San Francisco is the worst team 2H ATS this year, failing to cover those 2Hs by 5.3 PPG.
The biggest difference between the 49ers this year and last. In 2024, they are 3-11 against the 4Q spread, T-worst mark in the NFL. In 2023, they were 14-5 4Q ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.
McCaffrey’s Role in 49ers’ Success
➤The 49ers are now 6-8 SU in games where either McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play, and his teams (CAR, SF) are 23-35 SU in that spot.
Dolphins’ Home ATS Woes
➤This year, the Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS at home. Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015.
Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 20-12 ATS at home and 13-16-1 ATS away from home in his career.
Tua has done a pretty good job against teams outside of EST traveling into Miami. He is 7-4 ATS, covering the spread by 3.4 PPG.
Tua by time zone: 29-17-1 ATS in EST | 4-9 ATS in all other time zones.
Dolphins’ Struggles Against Winning Teams
➤Since 2021, the Dolphins are 5-19 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 23-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
From Tua’s standpoint, he is 6-16 SU and 9-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU in his career and 23-8 SU and 19-12 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.
This 49ers team is below .500 and is just 16th in PPG, so nothing outside of their record, really.
Tua’s Bounce-Back Performances
➤The Dolphins had a poor offensive outing last week vs. the Texans. This season, Tua has started two games after Miami scored under 20 pts. They are 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, but more importantly, scoring 32 and 27 pts.
Jaguars Take the Moneyline Crown
➤In a battle of the two worst teams on the moneyline last week, the Jaguars lost to the Jets and now own the crown.
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU, losing a $100 bettor $876, about one game up on the Jets.
Mac Jones’ ATS Struggles Continue
➤After the loss last week, Mac Jones is now 18-28-1 ATS in his NFL career. Since going 10-8 ATS in his rookie year, Mac is 8-20-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.9 PPG — his 8-20-1 ATS mark is the worst of any QB in the NFL.
In tight-spread games, Mac hasn’t been any better. He is 9-19-1 ATS when the spread is 4 or less and 6-14-1 ATS with a spread of 3 or less.
Lawrence vs. Jones: Key Differences
➤The difference between Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence, just this season, has been pretty specific.
Lawrence is 22nd in EPA/play, Mac is 31st. Trevor is 22nd in success rate, Mac is 32nd. Trevor was 2nd in aDOT, Mac is 20th. Trevor’s turnover-worthy throw rate was 3.5%, Mac’s is 4.1%. In 10 games, Trevor had just 2 sacks that was at his fault, Mac has 6 in 7 games.
Favorites Shine Late in Losing Matchups
➤When two teams play in game 14 or later, both with a win pct of 25% or less, the favorite is 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS since 1990, with the Jets covering against these Jaguars last week.
Raiders Set Record for Early Deficits
➤The Raiders fall behind in every single game. In all 14 of their games this season, they have been down by 10+ points, they are the first team to do that since the 1986 Colts who fell behind by double-digits in 16 straight games.
Raiders’ Historic Losing Streak
➤Raiders have lost 10 consecutive SU entering this game against the Jaguars. Only the 3rd 10+ game losing streak in Raiders history:
1962: 13 straight
2024: 10
2014: 10
Ridder’s First and Second Half Patterns
➤If Desmond Ridder does get the start again, he has shown a distinct pattern in his games. He is 5-13 against the first half spread, including starting his career 0-10 1H ATS. Against the 2nd half spread, Ridder is 12-6 in his NFL career.
Bad Defenses Signal the Under
➤When two bad defenses play, history says take the under.
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Buccaneers’ Hot Starts Shine
➤The Buccaneers continue to start hot. They have 7 TD on their first drives, T-most in the NFL, and their 9 scores on 1st drive are tied for 2nd most.
That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 24, tied with the 49ers).
Sunday Night Football Unders Dominate
➤Another Sunday night under last week. Since 2022, SNF unders are 40-19 (68%), including 37-14 during the regular season & 67-36-2 (65%) since 2019. This season, they are 11-4 to the under.
Mike Evans Nears Historic Milestone
➤From a betting perspective, good to keep an eye on Mike Evans. He is 251 receiving yards shy of 1,000 — which would be his 11th straight season, tying Jerry Rice for most all-time.
Baker Mayfield’s Betting Turnaround
➤A different Baker. Between 2018-22, he was 29-41-1 ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL. With the Bucs, he is 21-12 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, behind only Bo Nix and Jared Goff.
This season, Baker is 4th in pass yards, 3rd in comp pct, 3rd in TD passes with the 3rd lowest aDot of any QB. Maybe just as impressive is that when the Bucs are trailing, he has 13 TDs, 6 INT and 70% comp. pct.
Cooper Rush’s Sack Impact
➤Cooper Rush has played the majority of 7 games this season. Dallas is 3-4 SU in those games but 0-2 SU when Rush gets sacked 2+ times and 3-2 SU under that mark.
Todd Bowles’ ATS Challenges on Win Streaks
➤Todd Bowles and the Bucs have won two in a row beating the Chargers and Raiders both by 2+ scores.
On a 2+ game win streak, Bowles is just 8-12-2 ATS, including 3-6-1 ATS as a favorite.
Dak Prescott Shines in Night Games
➤Since 2016, the Cowboys have played 51 night games. Dak Prescott is 24-18-1 ATS in those games, while any other QB is 2-5 ATS, including Ben DiNucci, Cooper Rush and Andy Dalton.
MNF Favorites Struggle With Big Spreads
➤The last team to close -13 or higher on Monday Night Football came last year, when the Dolphins closed -13.5 and lost outright at home vs. Titans, 28-27. Actually, the last two teams to close -13 or higher on MNF lost outright, with the Steelers in 2022 in Cincinnati.
Since 2012, favorites this big on MNF are just 1-7-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.4 PPG. Double-digit favorites on MNF have been 10-26-2 ATS over the last 20 years. When those night games are played on Saturdays, Sundays or Mondays, DD favorites are 33-56-2 ATS.
Potential Historic Upset for Saints
➤If you’re trying to point to history, here are some benchmarks the Saints could join if they close +14 or higher and win outright.
Biggest Upsets At Night Last 20 Years:
14.5: Bengals over Steelers (2020)
14: Giants over Broncos (2017)
14: Vikings over Eagles (2010)
Biggest Upsets On Monday Night Football:
17.5: Colts over Patriots (1978)
14.5: Bengals over Steelers (2020)
14: 49ers over Rams (1976)
Packers Dominate sub-.500 Teams
➤This season, the Packers losses have come to only the Eagles, Vikings and Lions, who have a combined record of 36-6 SU.
This season, the Packers are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS vs. teams under .500. They are the only 5-0 SU or better team vs. under .500 opponents this season.
Matt LaFleur, in his career, is 32-12 SU vs. under .500 teams, winning ten in a row.
LaFleur’s December Dominance
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 19-3 SU and 12-9-1 ATS. LaFleur has 6+ SU losses every month during football season.
Two of those three losses have come in night games for LaFleur, with both coming on the road.
Jordan Love’s Clean Streak
➤For a QB who threw 11 interceptions in his first 8 games this year, Jordan Love hasn’t thrown a pick now in four starts, where he has 7 passing TDs, and the Packers have scored 30+ pts in all four games.
Packers and Lions are the only two teams this year with a 4-game no interceptions, 30+ pt streak, and just the 4th time Green Bay has done it in their history.
Saints Enter Rare Underdog Territory
➤It has been some stretch for the Saints. Last week they closed +7.5 at home in the Superdome —their largest home spread since 1999. This week they are around 13-point underdogs. If they close above +13, it will be their biggest underdog in any game since facing the Rams in 2000 (+13.5). If it closes higher than 13.5, it will also be against the Rams, but back in 1999 (+14). Above that mark, +15 would be the highest line in their recent history, back in 1994 against the 49ers.
Saints Turn to Backup QBs
➤The reason for the high spread is that Derek Carr will be out this week with a fracture in his right hand.
Carr has missed six regular season games for injuries in his career. He also missed a playoff game for the Raiders in the 2016 season and was benched for the final two games of the 2022 season.
With Carr sidelined again, the Saints go to a backup QB this week. This will be the Saints' 30th game with a backup QB dating back to 2013, and they are a very respectable 13-16 SU and 17-12 ATS using a backup QB over that span but are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS this year with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Home division teams haven't been great bets in recent history.
Matches: LAC, BAL, CIN, BUF, CHI, WAS, IND
System: Betting on bad teams and offenses is never easy. But it has been profitable.
Matches: CLE, NYG, CHI, LVR
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System: Late season divisional matchups lean under, especially in a team's normal game time in that Sunday 1 p.m. ET window.
Matches: CLE/CIN, DET/CHI, PHI/WAS, TEN/IND
System: Allowing sacks isn't a good thing and they tend to bleed over to the next game and so on.
Matches: WAS, SEA
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