NFL Week 16 Luck Rankings Picks: 2 Games Fit Thresholds

Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
2. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 128-78-6 (61.8%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.

In Week 15, both unlucky teams meeting the thresholds failed to cover. That moves unlucky teams in those games to 15-17-1 (47%) ATS on the season.

There were two Luck Totals in Week 15 — one Luck Under that went over its closing total, moving Luck Unders to 12-10-0 on the season, and one Luck Over that went over. That moves Luck Overs to 5-0-0 this year. As a whole, Luck Totals are 17-10-0 (63%) this season.

As a reminder, here are the criteria for Luck Totals:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 32-27-1 (54.2%) on the season.

For NFL Week 16, there are no sides, but two luck-based totals. Let's take a look.