Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 16 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 16 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 16 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 81.9%
2. Ravens
Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 78.3%
3. Broncos
Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 75.7%
4. Falcons
Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
5. Chargers
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-6. 49ers
Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
T-6. Patriots
Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
T-6. Colts
Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
9. Vikings
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
10. Chiefs
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
T-11. Steelers
Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-11. Texans
Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-13. Saints
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
T-13. Cowboys
Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
T-15. Giants
Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-15. Redskins
Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-15. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-15. Bengals
Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-19. Eagles
Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-19. Titans
Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-21. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-21. Jets
Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
23. Bears
Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
24. Packers
Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
T-25. Bills
Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-25. Rams
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-25. Panthers
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
28. Raiders
Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
29. Jaguars
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
30. Lions
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 24.3%
31. Browns
Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 21.7%
32. Cardinals
Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 18.1%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
T-1. Titans
Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. NO
T-1. Eagles
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. DAL
T-3. Buccaneers
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. HOU
T-3. Jets
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. PIT
5. Bears
Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. KC
T-6. Browns
Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. BAL
T-6. Dolphins
Spread: +1
Opponent: vs. CIN
T-8. Seahawks
Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. ARI
T-8. Rams
Spread: +7
Opponent: @ SF
10. Giants
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ WAS
11. Panthers
Spread: +7
Opponent: @ IND
12. Broncos
Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. DET
T-13. Chargers
Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. OAK
T-13. Packers
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ MIN
15. Bills
Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ NE
T-16. Falcons
Spread: -7.5
Opponent: vs. JAX
T-16. Jaguars
Spread: +7.5
Opponent: @ ATL
18. Patriots
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. BUF
T-19. Vikings
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. GB
T-19. Raiders
Spread: +7
Opponent: @ LAC
21. Lions
Spread: +7
Opponent: @ DEN
22. Colts
Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. CAR
23. Redskins
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. NYG
T-24. 49ers
Spread: -7
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-24. Cardinals
Spread: +9.5
Opponent: @ SEA
T-26. Bengals
Spread: -1
Opponent: @ MIA
T-26. Ravens
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ CLE
28. Chiefs
Spread: -6
Opponent: @ CHI
T-29. Steelers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ NYJ
T-29. Texans
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ TB
T-31. Cowboys
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ PHI
T-31. Saints
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ TEN
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
