Every Sunday night, I'll reveal the bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 16 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 16 Picks
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
If you’ve been following the last few years, you already have this bet registered right below the key numbers (7 and 47), so I don’t mind if you wait, especially with T.J. Watt’s injury.
However, this is where we’re going for Saturday all the way.
Let’s start with the matchup. Mike Tomlin’s defense has always had answers for the Ravens’ attack.
In the past eight games against Pittsburgh, the Ravens have amassed 16, 10, 10, 13, 16, 13,19 and 14 points. It had answers for Lamar Jackson with an elite pass rush and a top-three passing defense.
Even though Baltimore’s pass defense is improving, it’s still awfully vulnerable. Pittsburgh may even get George Pickens back from injury, and Russell Willson can always hit a few deep balls. The Steelers also have a significant special teams advantage this season as well.
The problem is, the Steelers aren’t scoring as much either. In their past eight games, they’ve registered 18, 17, 17, 16, 14, 16, 20 and 19 points. If you did the math, they’ve still managed to win eight of the past nine games in this rivalry, with all nine games ranging within one score, and six straight meetings at 34 combined points or below.
Steelers vs. Ravens Over/Under Pick
Which brings us to the under…
The Ravens are typically an over team. They have hit the over 11 times this season – the best of any team in the NFL. When not playing the Steelers, games are averaging 55.1 points per game, and only one game went below 43 all season.
However, as we’ve seen in recent history, Baltimore and Pittsburgh get into some pretty tight-knit battles.
In the past 34 divisional games in Week 14 or later, the trends favor the under:
- Home Favorite Under 7 (58%)
- Total 40-47 (56%)
- Outdoor Conditions (62%)
The forecast is also projecting it to be a windy and rainy day, with 13 mph winds. Windy unders since 2021 have hit at a 61% rate, and Tomlin road unders hit at a 58% rate.
Mike Tomlin: The Difference Maker
Tomlin as an underdog always gives me a fuzzy feeling. From Week 5 on in his career, he’s 50-21-1 ATS (70%), including 24-5-1 ATS (83%) in divisional games. He's also 10-1 ATS (91%) after a loss by seven or more points, covering by 10.6 points per game.
Sunday wasn’t his typical “Rah Rah” spot, but this one absolutely is. In AFC North divisional games from Week 14 on, he’s 44-27-1 ATS, and when he’s facing John Harbaugh, he’s 24-6-3 ATS (80%)
I think the Ravens are a better team, and should finally beat the Steelers. However, in this rivalry, you always bet on history, which means betting the under and the underdog.
Feel free to parlay this into a +239 SGP if you'd like.
