With a smaller Sunday slate, let's focus in on the weekend and Monday Night Football. If you want to see the Christmas, TNF, and Saturday article, just click here.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know. Here's Week 17 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Thursday, Dec. 26, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Allen Wrench
Rodgers a Big Dog
A massive spread for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets this week at +9.5 vs. the Bills. In his career, Rodgers has only closed above an 8.5-pt favorite once – back in 2022 as a 10.5-pt underdog against the Bills and Josh Allen. Here we are again.
Great Expectations
Vikings Surprise Season
The Vikings' win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they are now 13-2.
They are the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total. Since realignment in 2002, only the 2004 Chargers and 2004 Steelers finished 7.5 games above their win total.
Raise Up
Panthers Recent Hot Streak
No team is as hot ATS as the Panthers. Since November 1st, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS, the best mark of any team in the NFL. Carolina was 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games entering this stretch.
Going For History
Titans Bad ATS
The Titans moved to 2-13 ATS last week losing SU and ATS to the Colts. Tennessee is now tied with the 2007 Ravens for the worst start by any team ATS in the Super Bowl era. Overall, three teams have finished 3-13 ATS or worse in a 16-game format: 2007 Ravens, 1981 Patriots and 1980 Steelers.
Closing Strong
Buffalo Second Halves
Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second half spread in 9 straight games. Allen is 13-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL by 2+ games. Over the last 20 years, only two teams had 2 second half ATS losses or fewer during a full regular season: 2020 Washington at 13-2-1 2H ATS and 2012 Broncos at 14-1-1 2H ATS.
Under Allen, the Bills are 72-43-3 (63%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
Cover City, MI
Different Directions
Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 38-13-1 (75%) against the first half spread. Dan Campbell is 10-4-1 1H ATS in night games as coach of the Lions and Dolphins, including 4-0 on Monday Night Football.
The Lions are 45-20-1 ATS (69%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Super Bowl era.
The 49ers are 2-13 against the second half spread this season. San Francisco is the worst team 2H ATS this year, failing to cover those 2Hs by 5.6 PPG. The worst 2H ATS mark for any season over the last 20 years came in 2014 when the Titans finished 2-14 2H ATS.
The biggest difference between the 49ers this year and last. In 2024, they are 3-12 against the 4Q spread, the worst mark in the NFL. In 2023, they were 14-5 4Q ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.
Every NFL Game For Week 17
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A Massive Spread for Rodgers
➤A massive spread for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. In his career, Rodgers has only closed above an 8.5-pt favorite once – back in 2022 as a 10.5-pt underdog against the Bills and Josh Allen. Here we are again.
As an underdog of 7 pts or more in his career, Rodgers is 4-1 ATS, losing ATS to only Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers in the playoffs.
Chasing Career Touchdown 500
➤Aaron Rodgers is going for his 500th career TD pass, he is currently at 499. He would join Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre with 500. With Davante Adams catching his 499th TD, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him go to Davante for his 500th.
Davante has 22 targets last two weeks, most on the Jets by 6, including 17 first-read targets and is the only WR or TE to even get an end zone target in that span, he has two.
Penalty Problems for the Bills
➤Bills had a penalty issue last week, with 13 on the day, only done three other times for Buffalo under Sean McDermott.
Since 2019, McDermott and Buffalo is 8-0 SU after having more than 10 penalties in their previous game, most wins without a loss for any head coach.
Rodgers and Allen Head-to-Head
➤Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers have technically played a total of four times, after Rodgers played four snaps in the opener last year. Rodgers is 2-2 SU in those games and actually 3-1 ATS after failing to cover vs. Buffalo earlier this season.
Defensive Struggles on Both Sides
➤The Bills defense has been an issue lately, well so has the Jets being fair.
Here are both of their defenses since Week 9.
EPA/play: BUF 26th, NYJ 30th
Success rate: BUF 29th, NYJ 28th
Pass EPA: BUF 31st, NYJ 30th
Allen’s Big Favorite Woes
➤Josh Allen has closed as a favorite of 9 pts or more 24 times. He is 9-13-2 ATS in those games, including 4-10 ATS over the last three seasons. Of 24 QBs in that spot, only Patrick Mahomes has been worse ATS than Josh Allen as this big of a favorite.
Allen’s Second-Half Dominance
➤Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second half spread in 9 straight games. Allen is 13-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL by 2+ games.
Over the last 20 years, only two teams had 2 second half ATS losses or fewer during a full regular season: 2020 Washington at 13-2-1 2H ATS and 2012 Broncos at 14-1-1 2H ATS.
Under Allen, the Bills are 72-43-3 (63%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
Rookie Record Breaker: Brock Bowers
➤Brock Bowers is the story for the Raiders this season. He had 11 receptions and 99 receiving yards last week and is now up to 101 rec and 1,067 rec yds. Bowers now has the second most receiving yards in NFL history by a tight end in their rookie season – the most since 1961 (Mike Ditka, 1,076).
Saints Bounce Back History
➤Saints have a lot of systems lighting up on their side this week after getting not only shutout last week, but losing 34-0 against the Packers.
Teams after getting shutout are 30-15-3 ATS (67%) over the last decade.
Teams after getting shutout in a 30-0 result or worse are 46-34-1 (58%) since 1990.
Teams with a win pct below 40%, who just lost by 30+ pts are 90-66-4 ATS (58%) since 2003.
Raiders’ Post-Win Struggles
➤Raiders won last week vs. Jaguars, which wasn’t ideal for their draft position, but win is a win. This season, Raiders are 0-2 SU/ATS the week after a SU win, failing to cover the spread by 16.3 PPG.
How about this though. Raiders have been so bad after wins in the last 30+ years, Antonio Pierce at 4-2 ATS is their best coach since 1990 after a SU loss. Since 2003, Raiders are 49-72-1 ATS (41%) after a SU win, worst mark of any franchise in the NFL.
After the Raiders have won a game SU though oddly enough, Aidan O’Connell is 4-0 ATS, covering the spread by 7.4 PPG, Raiders are even 2-2 SU in those games.
Breaking the Streak and Making History
➤Raiders are coming off a game where they broke a 10-game SU losing streak. They would be the first team since December of 1968 to be favored in a game after breaking a 10+ game SU losing streak within the same season. That year it was the Eagles who were favored at home, of course against the Saints.
Over the last 20 years, teams after breaking a 10+ game losing streak are actually 6-1-1 ATS in their next game.
Saints With and Without Carr
➤The Saints are 5-10 SU this season. They are 5-5 SU with Derek Carr and 0-5 SU with Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler.
In the five games with a backup, the Saints have lost by 20 PPG, with opponents scoring 34, 20, 26, 33 and 51 pts. With Carr, they are outscoring opponents by 6.3 PPG.
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Giants’ Historic Losing Streak
➤The Giants have lost ten consecutive games straight up, including going 1-9 ATS during that stretch and they are currently in line for the #1 overall pick.
This is the longest losing streak in franchise history. Giants are on the verge of their worst ATS season in franchise history, too.
Worst Giants Seasons ATS in Super Bowl Era:
2024, 4-11 ATS
2003, 3-11-2 ATS
1973, 4-10 ATS
Giants are the first team since the 2017 Browns to lose ten in a row SU and be 1-9 ATS or worse during that stretch. Over the last 20 years, it’s only the 2024 Giants, 2017 Browns, 2016 Browns, and 2016 49ers.
Over the last decade, teams who have lost ten straight games are 4-10 ATS when having to play at home.
A Glimmer of Hope for Giants
➤One positive for the Giants. Teams to lose b2b games by 20+, who are under .500 SU in Week 15 or later are actually 20-17-2 ATS since 1990, and that improves to 15-9-2 ATS when +6 or higher.
Colts’ AFC South Dominance
➤Colts have played five games vs. the AFC South this season and they are 5-0 ATS in those games. Outside of the AFC South, Indy is just 4-6 ATS this season.
Anthony Richardson’s Unlikely Success
➤Simply not sustainable. Anthony Richardson threw 11 passes last week, Colts scored 38 pts and won. That’s only happened three other times in the last 15 years and all three teams lost SU and ATS in their next game.
Rising Expectations for Richardson and Colts
➤Expectations have certainly hit Anthony Richardson and the Colts. They closed as 4-pt favorites last week, the biggest favorite of Richardson’s career. Now we’ve doubled that this week being listed around -8, also this time on the road.
Richardson has only closed as a road favorite twice, against the Packers and Patriots, both games he failed to cover the spread.
Favorites Rule Cowboys-Eagles Rivalry
➤Cowboys-Eagles in recent history has been dominated by favorites. Over the last decade, the favorite in this series is 15-4 SU and ATS, 7-3 with the Eagles and 8-1 with the Cowboys.
Jalen Hurts’ NFC East Record
➤Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 34-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 9-10-2 ATS vs. the NFC East and 17-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
For comparison, we’ve only seen four games without him since that point – and all were started by Gardner Minshew. He went 1-3 SU/ATS, but the Eagles scored 25.8 PPG in the four games.
McCarthy’s Success With Top QBs
➤Mike McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Brett Favre as his QB and he is 21-21 ATS with all other QBs, including just 7-11 ATS in divisional games.
Eagles’ Struggles With Big Leads
➤Buyer beware. When the Eagles lead, they’ve had issues holding and covering. Last 2 seasons, when Philly is a favorite and leads by 10+ pts at any point in the game at home, they are still just 4-4-1 ATS.
Philly’s Post-Loss ATS Woes
➤Even though Hurts missed most of last week’s game, the Eagles are coming off a loss in this one. Philly is only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a loss dating back to the 2022 playoffs.
Second Half Dominance by Eagles
➤Eagles have been a great second-half team this year. They are 11-4 against the 3rd quarter spread and 10-5 against the 4th quarter spread this year, for a combined 21-9 in those quarters in the second half – overall, they are 10-5 against the second-half spread this season.
Cooper Rush’s Sack Struggles
➤Cooper Rush has played the majority of 7 games this season. Dallas is 4-4 SU in those games but 0-2 SU when Rush gets sacked 2+ times and 4-2 SU under that mark.
Rush’s Road Resilience
➤Rush has started six road games in his career. He is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 11.6 PPG. His only SU and ATS loss? Of course in Philadelphia back in 2022.
Eagles’ Defensive Bounce Back
➤Eagles are a good defensive team coming off a bad defensive game. Teams in the system below are 52-32-3 ATS since 2019 and 55% over the last 20 years.
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Panthers’ ATS Hot Streak
➤No team is as hot ATS as the Panthers. Since November 1st, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS, the best mark of any team in the NFL. Carolina was 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games entering this stretch.
Bryce Young’s Turnaround
➤Turn around? Bryce Young started his career 0-6-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. After facing the Eagles and Chiefs, putting up as strong of a performance as possible in both games, he’s 2-6-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. Another test this week.
Also, as an underdog of 5 pts or more, Bryce is 6-1 ATS this season, with the only ATS loss coming by 1 pt against the Broncos.
Baker’s Carolina Dominance
➤Baker Mayfield has faced all 32 teams in the NFL in his career. He’s only 3-0 SU or better against one team: Carolina Panthers. After the Week 13 win, he is now 4-0 SU against Carolina. Baker has won all four games by 9 pts or less, going 2-2 ATS.
Buccaneers’ First Quarter Success
➤The Buccaneers have played well in the first quarter this year, not so much last week. They lost 10-0 to Dallas in 1Q on SNF.
They have 7 TD on their first drives, T-most in the NFL, and their 9 scores on 1st drive are tied for 2nd most. That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 25, tied for 2nd-lowest).
Bucs are 10-5 against 1st quarter spread this year.
Baker’s Rollercoaster Performance
➤The rollercoaster of Baker Mayfield. In Baker’s career, he is 20-31 ATS the game after a cover, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB since 2003. After he fails to cover the spread, he’s 26-20-1 ATS.
Mike Evans Eyes History
➤From a betting perspective, good to keep an eye on Mike Evans. He is 182 receiving yards shy of 1,000 — which would be his 11th straight season, tying Jerry Rice for most all-time.
Bucs’ Defensive Bounce Back Struggles
➤Bucs allowed 26 pts vs. Cowboys last week, the bounce back for their defense hasn’t been strong lately, their last four games this year after allowing 24+ pts, they are 0-4 SU, allowing 31.3 PPG.
Panthers and First Half Overs
➤The Panthers give up a lot of points, especially in the first half. This season, Panther games are 12-3 to the first half over, going over the 1H total by 5.2 PPG.
No team has finished with 3 1H over losses or fewer in a full regular season since the Cowboys (13-3) in 2020, while the Bucs in 2019 went 14-2 to the 1H over — which is the golden standard in terms of 1H overs over the last 20 years.
Titans’ Historic ATS Struggles
➤The Titans moved to 2-13 ATS last week losing SU and ATS to the Colts.
Tennessee is now tied with the 2007 Ravens for the worst start by any team ATS in the Super Bowl era. Overall, three teams have finished 3-13 ATS or worse in a 16-game format: 2007 Ravens, 1981 Patriots, and 1980 Steelers.
Mac Jones’ ATS Decline
➤Since going 10-8 ATS in his rookie year, Mac Jones is 8-21-1 ATS, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL. 2nd-worst? Will Levis, who is now the Titans backup QB.
Oddly enough, in his career Mac is 12-10-1 ATS as a favorite, but 6-19 ATS as an underdog, just a short spread this week.
In later season games, Mac hasn’t been at his best. His teams are 4-11 ATS in games played in December or later. The only active QB worse since 2003? Kirk Cousins.
Late Season Showdowns for Struggling Teams
➤When two teams play in game 14 or later, both with a win pct of 25% or less, the favorite is 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS since 1990, with the Jets covering against these Jaguars in Week 15 and the Raiders covering against the Jaguars in Week 16.
Division Struggles for Losing Streaks
➤Titans are on a 4-game SU and ATS losing streak, while the Jaguars have lost two in a row SU/ATS.
For Tennessee, teams on a 4+ game SU/ATS losing streak are covering just 44.6% games when having to face a divisional opponent since 1990 and 40.9% ATS in that spot over the last decade.
Home Field Disadvantage for Jacksonville
➤This is a tough spot for Jacksonville this week. Teams playing at home in EST, who played their previous game in PST are just 95-115-8 ATS (45%) last 20 years, including 3-8 ATS this season and 17-27 ATS last four seasons.
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Dolphins’ Performance Against Winning Teams
➤Since 2021, the Dolphins are 5-19 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 24-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
From Tua’s standpoint, he is 6-16 SU and 9-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU in his career and 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.
Even though Tua has had his road struggles, he’s won five consecutive games SU on the road vs. teams below .500 SU.
Tua’s Struggles in the Cold
➤The forecast is scheduled for about 38 to 39 degrees at kickoff with little chance of rain and light wind.
In road/neutral games outdoors, Tua is 9-15 SU in his career, losing by 6.5 PPG. As a favorite, he is 5-3 SU in those games.
In games with the average temperature of even 42-43 degrees or less outdoors, Tua is 0-5 SU in his NFL career, losing those games by 19.2 PPG. It’s really been a Miami defense issue, allowing 30, 26, 32, 34 and 56 points in total.
Browns Transition to DTR
➤The Browns made the move from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
In Jameis Winston’s last ten starts, his teams are 2-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.7 PPG. So we understand why they wanted to see what else they had.
Now they have Robinson under center. This will be his 5th career start, all for the Browns. In those previous four starts, Cleveland has scored 34 total pts. The biggest issue for Cleveland and DTR is his 2nd half play, where he has 1 TD pass and 8 INT in his career. Browns have lost all four second halves on the moneyline with DTR starting.
Stefanski’s AFC North Struggles
➤The Browns are 10-19 ATS against AFC North teams under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of the 155 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable coach. Stefanski is 27-27-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents, including 13-10-1 ATS as an underdog.
Browns’ Historic Losing Streak
➤Talk about crawling to the finish line. Browns are the 2nd team since the start of 2018 to lose four straight by more than one score (9+ pts) entering Week 16 or later, joining the 2021-22 Giants.
If they do it again this week, they would join the 2021 Giants, 2016 Browns, and 2007 Falcons to do it in 5 straight games entering Week 16 or later. 2021 Giants and 2007 Falcons changed head coaches at the end of the year, and the 2016 Browns went 0-16 SU the following year.
Browns’ Offensive Struggles
➤Browns offense has scored just 13 total pts combined in their last two games. They haven’t scored 7 pts or less in consecutive games since 2009.
Teams scoring 14 pts or less in b2b games, in game 8 or later of the season are covering 57% of first halves since 2012.
Vikings’ Historic Overachievement
➤The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they are now 13-2.
They are the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total. Since realignment in 2002, only the 2004 Chargers and 2004 Steelers finished 7.5 games above their win total.
Sam Darnold Joins Elite Company
➤Sam Darnold got his 13th win with the Vikings last week, to move Minnesota to 13-2 on the year. Here are the QBs to win 13+ games in their first season with a team:
Sam Darnold 2024, Vikings
Dak Prescott 2016, Cowboys == L, Divisional
Peyton Manning 2012, Broncos == L, Divisional
Steve McNair 2006, Ravens == L, Divisional
Ben Roethlisberger 2004, Steelers == L, Conference Championship
None of those previous four QBs made the Super Bowl, with three losing their first playoff game.
Darnold has also played great lately. Since Week 11, Goff leads NFL with 17 TD, he has 1 INT. Only other QB with 15+ pass TD and 1 or fewer INT? Sam Darnold.
Packers’ Record-Breaking Streak
➤Packers are on a heck of a streak. They’ve covered the spread in 5 straight games, while scoring 30+ pts in all five games, while not throwing an INT in any of those five games.
They are the first team in the Super Bowl era to accomplish that feat.
Vikings Aim for Ninth Straight Win
➤The Vikings have now won 8 games in a row SU. This is just their 2nd 8-game SU win streak within a single season since 2000 (2017). They haven’t won 9 straight in a single season since 1998.
Overall, teams on an 8+ game SU win streak are 38-60-2 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
High Stakes for Minnesota
➤From a motivation standpoint, nothing bigger than this for Minnesota. If they beat the Packers, then Week 18 in Detroit can be for the division and the 1 seed potentially. In Week 17, Eagles would be knocked out of 1 seed contention with a loss, or Lions win or a Vikings win.
Matt LaFleur’s Revenge Record
➤Matt LaFleur has done a great job with revenge on the line – basically losing his teams last game vs. the same opponent. Packers lost to the Vikings back in Week 4, 31-29.
LaFleur is 27-11 SU and 25-13 ATS when facing an opponent after losing to them in his previous matchup.
Packers vs. Winning Teams
➤This season, the Packers losses have come to only the Eagles, Vikings and Lions, who have a combined record of 38-7 SU.
This season, the Packers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. teams under .500. They are the only 5-0 SU or better team vs. under .500 opponents. LaFleur, in his career, is 32-12 SU vs. under .500 teams, winning 11 in a row.
Unfortunately this week is against a 13-2 team. LaFleur is just 11-12 SU vs. teams above .500 the last three seasons.
December Dominance Under LaFleur
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 20-3 SU and 13-9-1 ATS. LaFleur has 6+ SU losses every month during football season.
Vikings Thrive in One-Score Games
➤One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 25-9 SU (74%) in one-score games under O’Connell. In 2024, the Vikings are 8-1 SU in those close games.
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Commanders Pull Off Rare Turnover Comeback
➤Commanders turned it over 5 times and trailed by 14+ pts last week … and won.
Teams in that spot were 3-201 SU over the last 20 years, covering just 6 of those games.
A massive amount of turnovers is never great. Over the last decade, teams off a game where they turned it over 5+ times are 26-45-3 ATS their following game.
Penix’s Night Game Challenge
➤Michael Penix Jr. gets his second start this week after being a massive favorite last week, this time in primetime on the road. QBs within their first two starts are 4-16 SU since 2021 in night games.
An even bigger hill to climb. QBs within first two starts facing a team above .500 SU in a night game – 12-38 SU since 1990.
Jayden Daniels has played two night games in the NFL. He is 1-1 SU, but both games were on the road as underdogs.
Penix’s Conservative Start
➤It’s just one week, but Penix was 9th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate last week. But on the other side, he faced the Giants defense, and he was 24th in completion pct over expected, with the 25th lowest average depth of target at 6.1, so he was staying pretty conservative.
Raheem Morris’ Record as Underdog Coach
➤Six QBs have played under Raheem Morris in the NFL. At 1-0 ATS, Michael Penix Jr. is the most profitable of those QBs at +$91 on a $100 bet.
This isn’t the best spot for Morris either. As a head coach, he is 6-24 SU as an underdog vs. teams above .500 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
Washington’s Fourth Quarter Woes
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year, even after the big comeback last week.
1Q ATS: 10-4-1
2Q ATS: 9-6
3Q ATS: 8-7
4Q ATS: 4-11
Washington’s 4-11 ATS mark in the 4Q is tied for the 2nd-worst record in the NFL with the 49ers and Chargers.
Jayden Daniels on Extended Prep
➤Jayden Daniels has played 12 games this season with the Commanders on extended prep time or normal 7-day rest. They are 9-3 SU in those games for a +$513 profit on $100 bet on the moneyline, 2nd-best for any QB behind just Sam Darnold this year.
Post-Eagles Win Letdown
➤It’s never easy beating the Eagles. So when you do, there is a natural letdown. Teams after beating Philly this year are 0-2 ATS in their next game, including 9-21-2 ATS since 2020, the least profitable prior opponent in this spot in that span.
Lions’ Struggles Against 49ers
➤The Lions history against the 49ers is not a pretty one and that’s not even mentioning the crushing playoff loss less than a year ago.
The Lions are 2-17 SU and 8-11 ATS vs. San Francisco in their last 19 meetings dating back to 1988. Detroit hasn’t won in San Francisco since 1975 – losing 14 consecutive games. Lions QB’d by Joe Reed beat Steve Spurrier and the 49ers that day.
NFC North’s Dominance
➤The NFC North is now 32-10 SU and 28-14 ATS (67%) vs. other divisions this year — the SU and ATS marks are the 2nd-best for a full season by any division since 1990 (2013 NFC West).
Shanahan’s 4th Quarter Woes
➤If the 49ers have a 4th quarter comeback this week, it would be a first. Kyle Shanahan is 0-43 SU in the regular season and playoffs with SF after trailing by 8+ points in the 4th quarter (via AP).
Lions’ First Half Success
➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 38-13-1 (75%) against the first half spread.
When the Lions play a game outside of EST during this stretch, they are 14-3-1 1H ATS, including 3-0 in MST and PST.
Dan Campbell is 10-4-1 1H ATS in night games as coach of the Lions and Dolphins, including 4-0 on Monday Night Football. That 4-0 1H ATS mark is tied with Mike Singletary for best on MNF over the last 20 years.
Dan Campbell’s ATS Legacy
➤Dan Campbell is 49-28-1 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 45-20-1 ATS (69%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Super Bowl era.
Purdy’s Struggles Against Winning Teams
➤Dating back to Christmas of last year, Purdy is just 1-8 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU on the season, with his lone cover coming against the Seahawks on TNF this year.
Purdy is 2-9 ATS in his last 11 games vs. teams .500 or better and 2-12 ATS in his last 14 games with a win pct of 40% or higher.
49ers’ Decline Since Christmas 2023
➤It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations, and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 9-12 SU in their last 21 total games.
49ers’ Second Half Struggles
➤The 49ers are 2-13 against the second half spread this season, and they are 3-16 2H ATS in their last 19 total games dating back to last year.
San Francisco is the worst team 2H ATS this year, failing to cover those 2Hs by 5.6 PPG. The worst 2H ATS mark for any season over the last 20 years came in 2014 when the Titans finished 2-14 2H ATS.
The biggest difference between the 49ers this year and last. In 2024, they are 3-12 against the 4Q spread, the worst mark in the NFL. In 2023, they were 14-5 4Q ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.
McCaffrey’s Impact on 49ers
➤The 49ers are now 6-9 SU in games where either McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play, and his teams (CAR, SF) are 23-36 SU in that spot.
Purdy’s Underdog Struggles
➤In Purdy’s career, he’s started two games as an underdog – none at home. He is 0-2 SU/ATS with the 49ers being outscored 66-17, but Purdy missed most of one of those games vs. Eagles in the playoffs.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: This is a win pct system later in the season that tries to look to fade teams that need wins vs. teams who are relatively out of it.
Matches: CAR, CLE, ATL, NYG (fade TB, MIA, WAS, IND)
System: Underdogs of 3+ pts after consecutive terrible offensive performances have been good bets over the last 20+ years.
Matches: CLE
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System: This system tries to flush out the frauds. Looking for teams above .500 ATS, with bad scoring margin.
Matches: TEN, NYG (fade JAC, IND)
System: This pinpoints the best teams late in the season and says bet the other way.
Matches: SF (fade DET)
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