Week 16 was all about the cold and the weather. For Week 17, time to focus in on "must win" situations for numerous teams across the NFL.
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 17 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 1, 9 a.m. ET.
1. Must Win, Baby
Welcome to Week 17. The week of desperation. How do teams perform on the brink of elimination?
- Eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the season have hit at a 63% clip (95-57-4) since 1990 (via Stuckey).
- In the last two weeks of the regular season, teams with a win pct of 40-69%, who have a +5% to +35% win pct differential vs. their opponent:
Commanders, Ravens, Bucs, Dolphins, Giants, Lions, Jaguars, Chargers.
They are 57-88-5 ATS (39.3%) over the last 20 years, with a $100 bettor down $3,300 and a -22% ROI.
2. Sad Dog World
Underdogs began the season 85-62-3 (57.8%) ATS through 10 weeks.
Since, they are just 45-43-2 ATS. But the moneyline is where the damage has been done.
Moneyline Underdogs This Season
- Weeks 11-16: 24-65-1 (27%). A $100 bettor would be down -$3,140 (-34.9% ROI)
- Weeks 1-10: 60-89-1 (40.3%). A $100 bettor would up +$1,837 (+12.2% ROI)
From Week 11 on so far this season, it is the second-worst showing for moneyline underdogs in the last 20 years.
3. Here We Go Again
The 7-8 Packers are favored over the 12-3 Vikings this week. This will be just the 10th time in the last 20 years a team under .500 SU will be favored over a team with an 80% or better win percentage in December or later.
This same situation occurred three weeks ago against the Lions. A 34-23 Detroit victory.
The previous nine teams listed as favorites went 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS against the great record, underdog team.
Every NFL Game For Week 17
Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-5 ATS 7-3 SU | 53-44-2 ATS 61-38 SU | 26-19-1 ATS 25-21 SU |
| Joshua Dobbs, TEN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Dak Prescott in primetime: 20-11 SU, 18-12-1 ATS. Eighth-most profitable QB at night over the last 20 years.
+ Dak has thrown an interception in five straight games and seven of his last eight games.
+ Dak Prescott is 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS on short rest in his career.
He’s 96th of 98 QBs ATS on short rest since he was drafted in 2016.
+ Cowboys can go over their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Titans. Cowboys went over last season, too. Dallas hasn’t gone over their win total in consecutive years since 1994-95.
+ Cowboys are massive road favorites. If they close at -7 or more, the under is 27-19 (59%) when the road team is favored by seven or more over the last two years.
When the game is played on a Thursday, the under is 15-7 (68%) over the last 20 years.
+ Dak as a 3-point favorite or greater on the road: 16-5 SU, 14-6-1 ATS
Dak’s 14-6-1 ATS mark is the second-best in this spot over the last 20 years behind just Peyton Manning (35-20-5 ATS).
+ We call this the “All is going right” formula: Teams with at least a 70% win percentage and 60% cover percentage in December or later are 45.3% ATS, -11% ROI over the last 20 years (Bengals, Cowboys and 49ers this week).
+ Cowboys have the largest margin to the over of any team in the NFL. Their games are going over the total by 4.4 PPG.
+ Double-digit favorites are now 8-15 ATS this season, the worst start for double-digit favorites in the last 20 years.
+ Micah Parsons is no longer the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.
He was -275 in Week 15, -500 in Week 14. Nick Bosa became the favorite at -130 in Week 16 and is now -1100, while Parsons is +600.
+ Best ATS division in the NFL? NFC East, 25-14-1 ATS this season against non-divisional opponents. The best ATS start for NFC East in last 20 years.
+ Dak Prescott is 53-44-2 ATS (54.7%) in his career.
24-11-2 ATS (69%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,177 – Second to Brady since 2005
16-24 ATS (40%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$895 – 239th of 247 QBs since 2005
+ In the past 20 years, double-digit home underdogs at night are 5-18 SU and 18-5 ATS, covering five in a row dating back to 2019.
+ Titans have now lost five games in a row SU (0-4-1 ATS).
Titans first five-game SU losing streak under Mike Vrabel (Tennessee hadn’t lost four straight under Vrabel entering last week)
Titans last lost five straight back at the end of the 2015 and start of the 2016 season. They haven’t lost five straight games SU in the same season since losing six straight in 2015.
+ Mike Vrabel in primetime: 7-4 ATS with Tannehill, 3-3 ATS with all other QBs
+ Titans are 8-6 SU in games without Derrick Henry since 2018.
+ Titans can go under their preseason win total (nine) with a loss vs. Cowboys.
+ Titans have now gone five straight games without covering the spread (0-4-1 ATS). Under Vrabel, the Titans have never gone five straight games without a cover.
+ Titans are 3-11-1 against the second half spread this season, the least profitable team against the second half spread in the NFL.
+ The under has cashed in nine of the last 12 Titans games.
+ Games at night are 32-19 to the under so far this season.
+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 87-49 (64%) to the under over the last two seasons. A $100 bettor would be up $2,992.
+ Titans are 10-5 against the first half spread, tied for third-best first half ATS win percentage in the NFL.
+ Malik Willis vs. Ryan Tannehill
- MW: 1-1 SU/ATS, 12.1 QBR, -71.7% DVOA, -0.459 EPA/play (56 of 56 QBs, min. 50 plays)
- RT: 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 49.7 QBR, +3.8% DVOA, +0.072 EPA/play (20th in NFL)
| Sam Darnold, CAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-1 ATS 3-1 SU | 21-31-1 ATS 20-33 SU | 8-18 ATS 8-18 SU |
| Tom Brady, TB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
3-11-1 ATS 7-8 SU | 212-155-11 ATS 279-93 SU | 109-74-8 ATS 154-33 SU |
+ Sam Darnold vs. PJ Walker this season
- SD: 3-1 SU/ATS, 58.9 QBR, +36.7% DVOA, +0.311 EPA/play (second of 61 QBs)
- PW: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 24 QBR, -28.2% DVOA, -0.155 EPA/play (51st of 61 QBs) (Under has hit in five of seven PJ Walker starts in his career).
+ Since Darnold’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 110th of 113 QBs against the spread: 21-31-1 ATS.
- Panthers can go over their preseason win total (6.5) with a win vs. Buccaneers.
+ Darnold has faced Tom Brady three times in his career with the Panthers and the Jets. He is 0-3 SU and ATS, losing by a combined score of 112-20, failing to cover the spread by 19.3 PPG.
+ Panthers are 6-16 SU, 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games.
+ Panthers won their last road game in Seattle, snapping a nine-game SU road losing streak.
Panthers are 7-21 SU on the road since Oct. 2019 (only worse road record? Browns, Lions and Jaguars)
+ Panthers accumulated just 21 rushing yards in their home loss against the Steelers in Week 15. In Week 16, they ran for 320 yards against the Lions.
27 teams have run for 300+ yards in the last 20 years, they are 19-8 ATS in their next game, covering the spread in five in a row dating back to 2018.
+ Panthers SU record by sack total on Sam Darnold.
- 2 or fewer: 6-2 SU
- 3 or more: 1-7 SU
+ Brady is 25-28-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 3-11-1 ATS this season.
- Brady’s worst ATS start to a season in his career.
- Brady and the Buccaneers are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games
+ Least Profitable QB ATS Single Season Last 20 Years
- 2007 Marc Bulger: 2-10 ATS (-$838)
- 2022 Tom Brady: 3-11-1 ATS (-$837)
- 2008 David Garrard: 4-12 ATS (-$827)
- 2019 Mitch Trubisky: 3-11-1 ATS (-$813)
+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with just 1,155 yards. The 2nd-fewest is the Chargers with 1,273 rushing yards.
+ Bucs team total unders are 13-2 this season.
+ Bucs are 30-1 to win the Super Bowl. They were as low as +700 entering Week 3.
+ Sports Odds History has midseason Super Bowl odds dating back to 2008. Brady has never been 30-1 or higher to win the SB prior to this week.
+ Buccaneers are failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
+ In the first half, the under is 13-2 in the Buccaneers 15 games this season, best first half under win percentage this season.
+ In Brady’s last 17 starts for the Bucs, here are his passing touchdown breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 11 of 17 games. Under 2.5 in 15 of 17 games.
- 0: 1
- 1: 10
- 2: 4
- 3+: 2
| Deshaun Watson, CLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
2-2 ATS 2-2 SU | 28-30-2 ATS 31-29 SU | 14-13-2 ATS 13-16 SU |
| Carson Wentz, WAS | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-4 ATS 2-4 SU | 44-47 ATS 46-45-1 SU | 23-23 ATS 27-19-1 SU |
+ Deshaun Watson’s fifth start for the Browns this week.
- 31-29 SU, 28-30-2 ATS career
- Watson is 15-8 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 9-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU
- Watson is only 11-17-2 (39%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
+ Browns offense struggles under Watson
CLE two worst offensive games by DVOA (WK 13 & 16), all under Watson.
Browns offense has struggled lately. Since 2019, teams to score fewer than 20 points in three straight games when then listed as an underdog are 52-30 ATS (63.4%).
+ Browns have scored fewer than 14 points in three straight games. Just the second time Cleveland has done that since 2016.
After scoring fewer than 14 points in three straight games, here is how those teams perform in their next game based on location:
Home: 35-19-1 ATS | Road: 16-28-2 ATS
In December or later, when a team scores 14 points or fewer in consecutive games, they are 127-85-4 (60%) against the first half spread since 2005 in their next game.
+ How Browns performed under Jacoby Brissett: 4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)
+ In 11 games with Jacoby Brissett, Browns produced NFL's 5th-ranked offense (EPA per drive). Behind only: Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in 1-score games more to blame for 4-7 record.
+ Browns can go under their preseason win total (eight) with a loss vs. Commanders. The under is 12-3 on the Browns preseason win total over the last 15 years.
+ Stefanski with Browns
- Favorite: 19-9 SU, 10-18 ATS
- Dog: 6-15 SU, 11-9-1 ATS
+ Taylor Heinicke vs. Carson Wentz
- TH: 5-3-1 SU/ATS, 45 QBR, -10.1% DVOA, -0.035 EPA/play (36th of 61 QBs)
- CW: 2-4 SU/ATS, 32.6 QBR, -17.1% DVOA, -0.058 EPA/play (39th of 61 QBs)
+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 9-3-1 to the under.
+ Welcome back Carson Wentz. He now faces a Browns defense allowing 21.5 PPG this year. Wentz is 21-28 ATS facing defenses allowing 21 PPG or more in his career. Of 122 QBs since he was drafted, Wentz ranks 121st in this spot ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
In 4 of Wentz’ six starts this season, he threw an interception.
+ Carson Wentz’ end of year escapades have been a rollercoaster. Entering last season, Wentz was 6-0 ATS in Week 15 or later in the regular season. In Weeks 15 and 16 last year, Colts won and covered. Then at 8-0 ATS in that spot, Colts lost two straight and missed the playoffs.
+ Looking for a parlay piece? Terry McLaurin has had at least four receptions in nine consecutive games, including 12 of his last 14 games.
+ Brian Robinson has exceeded 50 yards rushing in six consecutive games.
+ Commanders are 6-3-1 SU/ATS in their last ten games overall.
+ Best ATS division in the NFL? NFC East, 25-14-1 ATS this season against non-divisional opponents. The best ATS start for NFC East in last 20 years.
+ Commanders can go over their preseason win total (7.5) with a win over the Browns.
+ The Commanders have held opposing QBs under their passing yards prop in 10 of their last 12 games overall.
| Andy Dalton, NO | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-6 ATS 5-7 SU | 82-75-6 ATS 81-80-2 SU | 40-37-3 ATS 34-46 SU |
| Gardner Minshew, PHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-1 ATS 0-1 SU | 10-13 ATS 8-15 SU | 4-5 ATS 4-5 SU |
+ Andy Dalton has lost his last 13 starts SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 21 PPG (4-9 ATS). Since 2016, Dalton is 5-25 SU vs. teams allowing fewer than 21 PPG.
+ Andy Dalton career based off of rest leading up to the game.
- Short rest (6 days or less): 10-14-1 ATS
- Normal rest (7 days): 54-42-4 ATS
- Extended rest (8 days or more): 12-16 ATS
+ Saints opened the season 0-5 ATS on the road. They have since covered back-to-back road games.
+ The under is 7-1 in the Saints last eight games, including going under in five of New Orleans' last six road games.
- Saints playoff scenario:
NO eliminated: loss or TB W + WAS W or TB W + DET W + GB W
+ Saints defense has been stellar lately, allowing less than 20 points in four straight games — one of three teams entering Week 17 on such a streak (Steelers and Ravens).
Teams allowing less than 20 points in four straight games are actually just 61-76-1 ATS (44.5%) in December or later in the last 20 years.
+ After Jalen Hurts’ injury, he moved from -165 favorite to +450 and now to +900 to win MVP (Mahomes is -500).
MVP odds move: May 1 40-1, Wk1 22-1, Wk2 16-1, Wk3 10-1, Wk4 7-1, Wk9 +350, Wk 14 +150, Wk 15 -165, Wk 16 +450, Wk17 +900
+ If Hurts cannot start, the Eagles will play Gardner Minshew.
Minshew is 8-15 SU and 10-13 ATS in his NFL career.
Minshew is 5-12 SU as an underdog, losing his past eight starts SU as a dog (1-7 ATS, losing seven straight starts SU/ATS as a dog).
In October or later, Minshew is 5-12 SU/ATS in his career, including 0-6 SU/ATS vs. teams .500 SU or better.
+ Eagles without Lane Johnson since 2020: 3-10 SU (via @PaulHembo).
- Eagles are 14-1 on a 6-point teaser this season, best record in the NFL.
+ Eagles have the largest margin to the over of any team in the NFL. Their games are going over the total by 4.4 PPG.
+ The Eagles are 13-2 entering this matchup. In the last 20 years, teams with 85%+ win pct are 51-89-2 ATS (36.4%).
+ Jalen Hurts is 18-4 (81.8%) straight up in games in which his team is favored (11-10-1 ATS).
+ Jalen Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 11-4-1 ATS
- Road: 6-12 ATS – He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.
+ Teams after facing the Cowboys this season are 11-3 ATS in their next game, covering the spread in five in a row and seven of the last eight games.
| David Blough, ARI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 2-3 ATS 0-5 SU | 0-2 ATS 0-2 SU |
| Desmond Ridder, ATL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
1-1 ATS 0-2 SU | 1-1 ATS 0-2 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
- David Blough gets the start for the Cardinals this week. He is 0-5 straight up in his career.
QBs 0-5 SU or Worse — Last 20 Years
- David Blough: 0-5 SU
- John Beck: 0-5 SU
- Curtis Painter: 0-8 SU
- Brody Croyle: 0-9 SU
- Zach Mettenberger: 0-10 SU
- DeShone Kizer: 0-15 SU
+ Cardinals are 6-9 against the first half spread this season, but they’ve won four first halves in a row against the Buccaneers, Broncos, Patriots and Chargers.
+ Cardinals played at home vs. Bucs in Week 16. Last decade, MST/PST teams coming off a home game to playing on road in EST are 80-60-3 ATS (57%).
+ PST and MST teams on the road in EST are 59-34-2 ATS (63.4%) since 2019, including 7-4-1 ATS this season.
+ Cardinals are 30th in DVOA this season according to Football Outsiders, the only teams worse? Texans and Colts.
+ The Cardinals are averaging 2.1 points in the first quarter this season, T-worst in the NFL.
+ Historically, the Cardinals have faded away after a loss this late in the season. They are 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS under Kingsbury after a loss in December or later.
+ DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated 50+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 19 games, but only had four receiving yards in his first game with Trace McSorley last week.
His four receiving yards were T-fewest in a game in his career (151 starts including playoffs)
+ Cardinals are one of eight teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Kyler Murray vs. Colt McCoy vs. Trace McSorley
- KM: 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS, +0.026 EPA/play (31st of 61 QBs)
- CM: 1-2 SU/ATS, 0.150 EPA/play (50th of 61 QBs)
- TM: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, -0.372 EPA/play (58th of 61 QBs, min. 25 plays)
+ Desmond Ridder gets his third career start this week against the Cardinals. Rookie QBs are 11-9 SU, 13-7 ATS entering Week 17.
+ After starting 6-0 ATS, Falcons are just 2-7 ATS since.
+ 6-0 ATS teams last decade perform after hot start
- 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 2-7 ATS
- 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
- 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS
+ Falcons have performed much better at home vs. on the road.
Home: 4-2 SU last six games. Both losses came by three points.
Road: 6-game SU losing streak (1-9 SU last 10). Falcons have gone under their team total in their last six road games (less than 20 points in all six games).
+ Both the Falcons and the Cardinals offenses have been struggling lately.
The Falcons have scored fewer than 20 points in four consecutive games for the first time since 2018 and just second time since 2007.
The Cardinals have scored fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games for just the first time since 2018.
Since 2019, teams to score fewer than 20 points in three straight games when then listed as an underdog are 52-30 ATS (63.4%).
+ The under has cashed in 6 of the last 7 Falcons games, including going 9-3 in their last 12 games overall.
+ Teams after facing the Ravens this season are 10-3-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Desmond Ridder vs. Marcus Mariota
- DR: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, -0.023 EPA/play (35th of 61 QBs)
- MM: 5-8 SU, 7-6 ATS, +0.073 EPA/play (21st of 61 QBs)
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
7-8 ATS 7-8 SU | 12-20 ATS 10-22 SU | 5-11 ATS 3-13 SU |
| Davis Mills, HOU | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
8-5 ATS 2-10-1 SU | 13-11 ATS 4-19-1 SU | 7-5 ATS 1-10-1 SU |
+ Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception on the road in his last five road games. Last road INT — in Philly Oct. 2.
+ Jaguars have won three consecutive games for the first time since December of 2017 (they last won four straight SU in November of 2017).
- Trevor Lawrence is 10-22 SU, 12-20 ATS in his career.
- Lawrence is 3-13 SU and 5-11 ATS on the road in his career.
- Lawrence has won and covered back-to-back road starts for the first time in his career (was 1-13 SU on road prior to stretch).
+ Jaguars are 5-22 SU when allowing 14 points or more under Trevor Lawrence (4-7 this season, including 3-1 in their last four games in the spot)
+ Since October 2019, this is the Jaguars 3rd game favored away from home (a total of 30 games), all three have come against the Texans (0-2 SU/ATS in those games).
+ The Jaguars are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games.
+ Jaguars are 5-2 to the under at home and 6-2 to the over on the road this season.
+ Unders are 44-28-1 (61.1%) in NFL division games this season — Best start for division unders since 2017 and second-best start in the last 20 years.
+ Jaguars after a SU win under Trevor Lawrence: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Since 2018, Jaguars are 8-11 ATS after a SU win
On at least a two-game winning streak over the last 20 years, the Jaguars are 16-28-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Texans are 10-37-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.
+ Texans broke a nine-game losing streak last week at the Titans. Over the past three weeks, Houston has beaten Tennessee, lost to Chiefs by six and Cowboys by four.
+ Davis Mills is 15-9 against the first half spread in his career.
+ Texans have defeated the Jaguars in nine consecutive games SU dating back to 2018. Since 2014, Texans are 15-2 SU vs. the Jaguars. Davis Mills is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Jaguars and 2-19-1 SU vs. all other teams.
+ In the last 20 years, the Texans are 57-73-4 ATS after a SU win, the third-least profitable team in the NFL in that spot.
+ Home division dogs are 61-44 ATS since 2020 and 16-10 ATS this season.
+ Mills has played three games on extended rest in his career, he is 0-3 SU and ATS, failing to cover the spread by 12.3 PPG.
+ Late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 215-159-9 (57.5%) since 2003 (Dec or later in regular season and 1p ET or earlier).
+ Week 17 is Davis Mills’ 25th career start, all 25 as an underdog (13-11 ATS). Overall, Mills is 4-19-1 SU career.
| Justin Fields, CHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-9 ATS 3-11 SU | 7-17 ATS 5-19 SU | 4-7 ATS 2-9 SU |
| Jared Goff, DET | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
10-5 ATS 7-8 SU | 55-46-2 ATS 54-48-1 SU | 25-23-2 ATS 26-24 SU |
+ Bears are 5-10 against the 1st half spread this season.
+ Bears games are 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games overall. Bears are 10-5 to the over this season, T-best in the NFL.
+ Bears have lost eight consecutive games SU. 2002 is the last time they lost eight straight in the same season. The eight-game losing streak matches their longest in franchise history The franchise was founded in 1920.
+ Most QB rushing yards in Single Season:
- Lamar Jackson (2019): 1,206
- Mike Vick (2006): 1,039
- Justin Fields (2022): 1,011
+ Justin Fields is 8-16 ATS as a starting QB, including 7-14 ATS as an underdog.
+ Over the last two seasons, the Bears are 4-22 SU as underdogs, least profitable team on ML as dogs in the NFL (-$1,200).
+ Fields is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS vs. NFC North. His only SU win came against the Lions back in his first start against a divisional opponent (lost seven straight).
+ Totals of 50 or more are 15-9 to the under this season and 49-38 (56.3%) since the start of last season.
+ Bears and Broncos lost by 20-plus points back in Week 16. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ points are 75-52-1 ATS in their next game, including 58-32-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
+ Most Sacks Taken This Season: Russ 49, Fields 48
+ Bears are one of eight teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Jared Goff is 27-14 ATS playing in the 1 p.m. ET window or earlier, including 18-8 ATS over the last two seasons. He is 28-32-2 ATS (46.7%) in all other games.
+ Goff was 36-36-2 ATS with Rams. He is 19-10 ATS with Lions.
At 19-10 ATS (+$742), Goff is the most profitable Lions QB ATS over the last 20 years.
+ Both the Bears and Lions allow 24+ PPG this season.
Over the last two seasons, under is 44-27 (62%) when both teams allow 24+ PPG.
+ Jamaal Williams is currently the leader in rushing TD with 14, one ahead of Derrick Henry and Jalen Hurts. Williams was 150-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the preseason.
+ Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Since Nov. 1, only the Bengals have been better ATS.
+ The Lions defense allows a TD or first down on 77% of series, highest % in the NFL, and a punt on 10% of series, lowest percentage in the NFL (via @benbbaldwin / @nflfastr)
+ The Lions went from 50-1 to 100-1 to win the Super Bowl with the loss to the Panthers.
+ Lions are 6-pt favorites vs. Bears. Detroit hasn’t closed -6 or higher since October 2019 vs. the Giants. They haven’t closed -7 or higher since September 2018 vs. the Jets.
+ Last week, the Lions had to travel to Carolina to play outdoors. This week, Detroit is back at home in the dome.
- Goff career outdoors: 30-33-2 ATS
- Indoors: 25-13 ATS
+ Under Dan Campbell and Sean McVay, Goff is 55-39-2 ATS (59%). Under John Fassel and Jeff Fisher he was 0-7 ATS.
+ Since 2019, Goff is 37-23-1 ATS (62%). Only Joe Burrow is more profitable ATS in that span.
+ Lions are one of eight teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
| Teddy Bridgewater, MIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
0-1 ATS 0-1 SU | 43-22 ATS 33-31 SU | 24-7 ATS 15-16 SU |
| Mac Jones, NE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 4-2 ATS 2-4 SU | 2-1 ATS 0-3 SU |
+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win vs. Patriots.
+ Dolphins are back to 40-1 to win it all, their highest odds since Week 7.
+ Dolphins are 16-8 SU in its last 24 games.
+ Dolphins were favored in New England prior to Tua Tagovailoa’s being placed in concussion protocol. This would have been the first time since Dec. 29, 2002, Miami would have been favored in New England. A total of 19 road games where Miami is 7-12 ATS.
+ The Dolphins opened around a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line. Moved down to -1.5 and is now +3 with Teddy Bridgewater expected to start.
Bridgewater is 43-22 ATS (66.2%), the 5th-most profitable QB ATS in the last 20 years. But since 2020, he's been "Teddy Not Covers" at 15-15 ATS.
Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS on the road, but he's lost 4 of 5 ATS (he's 20-4 ATS as a road underdog).
+ Late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 215-159-9 (57.5%) since 2003 (Dec or later in regular season and 1 p.m. ET or earlier).
+ Dolphins are 6-1 to the under at home this season and 6-2 to the over on the road.
+ Tua Tagovailoa ranked second in the NFL in EPA/play this season behind only Patrick Mahomes.
- Weeks 1-12: 0.400 EPA/p, first in the NFL … miles ahead of No. 3 (0.24), nearly double Hurts in sixth
- Weeks 13-16: -0.137 EPA/p, 25th of 25 quarterbacks with 100 passes
+ How Patriots have performed by time window since 2018:
- 1 p.m. ET: 25-15-1 ATS
- 4 p.m. ET: 6-9-1 ATS
- Night: 11-15 ATS
+ Mac Jones: 15-15 SU, 14-15-1 ATS career. 6-11 SU, 5-11-1 ATS last 17 starts.
+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:
- With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
- W/O Tom Brady: 43-42-1 ATS
+ Belichick is 38-13 SU, 41-9-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season.
+ Belichick as home underdog: 10-11 SU, 13-8 ATS with Patriots.
+ Between 2000-02, he was home dog 10 times.
+ Between 2003-13, he was home dog once (between 2003-2019; three times)
+ Between 2020-22, he has been a home dog nine times (including this week)
+ Teams after facing the Raiders are 19-29 SU, 16-32 ATS since 2020, including 4-15 SU in their last 19 games dating back to 2021.
The 16-32 ATS mark is the worst for any previous opponent in the NFL.
+ The Patriots are averaging 2.1 points in the first quarter this season, T-worst in the NFL.
+ Unders are 44-28-1 (61.1%) in NFL division games this season — Best start for division unders since 2017 and second-best start in the last 20 years.
+ Matthew Judon (15.5) is now a full two sacks behind Nick Bosa (17.5) for the sack lead in the NFL. Judon was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
| Russell Wilson, DEN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
5-8 ATS 3-10 SU | 95-85-7 ATS 116-70-1 SU | 46-44-4 ATS 49-44-1 SU |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
5-10 ATS 12-3 SU | 46-41-2 ATS 70-19 SU | 22-23-1 ATS 37-9 SU |
+ Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett prior to this weeks game.
- Per our Action Labs database, 34 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 16-18 straight up (SU) and 18-16 against the spread (ATS).
- A 47% SU win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 87-234-3 record (27.1%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 119-199-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.
- For reference, the overall win percentage improved from 26.9% prior to the change to 38% after.
- Since 1990, teams that fired their coach midseason went 48% ATS in their remaining games.
+ 11 of Denver’s last 15 games have gone under the total this season, T-the most profitable team to the under this season.
Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 23-9 (72%) in Broncos games, the best percentage in the NFL.
+ Broncos are 2-10 SU in their last 12 and 4-15 in their last 19 games overall.
+ Broncos have lost games where their opponent scored 10, 12, 16, 17, 17, 19 points this season.
- Broncos have failed to score 17 points in eleven games this season
- Broncos have lost four games this season where they led in the fourth quarter
+ Broncos have scored 22 total TDs this season, fewest in the NFL (next fewest is 23 by Colts).
+ Teams after allowing 50+ points are 36-24-1 ATS (60%) over the last 20 years, covering 5 consecutive games.
+ Broncos are coming off a road game in Los Angeles against the Rams. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans, who play on the road again, are 51-84-5 ATS (37.8%) over the last decade.
+ Most Sacks Taken This Season: Russ 49, Fields 48
+ Bears and Broncos lost by 20+ points back in Week 16. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ points are 75-52-1 ATS in their next game, including 58-32-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
+ Russ Wilson is 35-19-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 5-2 ATS as an underdog with the Broncos.
+ Above a TD underdog, Russell Wilson is 6-0 ATS
+ Biggest Russell Wilson Underdog
+10 == 2018 at Rams (L, 36-31)
+9 == 2022 vs. Chiefs (L, 34-28)
+9 == 2022 at Ravens (L, 10-9)
+7.5 == 2018 vs. Rams (L, 33-31)
+7.5 == 2016 at Patriots (W, 31-24)
+7.5 == 2012 at 49ers (L, 13-6)
+ In Russell Wilson’s last 27 starts, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 16 of 27 games. Under 2.5 in 23 of 27 games.
- 0: 7
- 1: 9
- 2: 7
- 3+: 4
+ The Chiefs pass defense has allowed a pass TD in 17 consecutive games.
In that span, opposing QBs have thrown for two TD or more in 15 of the 17 games (Bryce Perkins and Geno Smith last week).
14 of the 17 QBs went over their passing TD prop (Smith, Perkins, Burrow)
+ Mahomes leads NFL in passing yards (4,720). He leads by over 450 yards. He was +800 entering the season.
He was -103 at BetRivers to break the single-season record of 5,477 prior to Week 16. He needs 758 passing yards to break the record.
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home
- Home: 22-23-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 24-18-1 ATS
+ Patrick Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 29-35-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS
+ Mahomes’ 14th start in January or later. He’s been favored in all 14 starts: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS.
+ Double-digit favorites are now 8-15 ATS this season, the worst start for double-digit favorites in the last 20 years.
+ Chiefs are 7-1 to the under at home this season and 6-1 to the over on the road.
+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half in Week 13 and lost. In Week 15, they trailed the Texans 14-13 at half and won.
Kansas City has won six of their past seven games in which they trailed at halftime. The six straight wins was the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won 7 straight from 1989-90.
+ Mahomes is just 2-9 ATS this season after a SU win and 16-24 ATS after a win since 2020.
+ Patrick Mahomes (-500) is the favorite to win MVP ahead of Joe Burrow (+600) and Jalen Hurts (+900).
Mahomes MVP odds: opened 8-1, 5-1 Week 4, 4-1 Week 8, 2-1 Week 10, +120 Week 14, -275 Week 16
+ Under is now 54-37-1 (59.3%) at Arrowhead with Andy Reid in K.C.
When the Chiefs are 7-point favorites or higher, under is 31-13-1 (71%).
| Nick Foles, IND | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
0-1 ATS 0-1 SU | 30-33 ATS 33-30 SU | XX ATS XX SU |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
11-4 ATS 8-6-1 SU | 30-22 ATS 20-31-1 SU | 12-15 ATS 11-15-1 SU |
+ Nick Foles gets the start for the Colts this week again. Foles is 3-11 SU in his last fourteen starts dating back to his playoff loss with the Eagles against the Saints.
+ Colts are 3-12 against the first half spread this season and are 3-14 in their last 17 first halves ATS dating back to last year.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-6 2H ATS
+ Colts 10-5 to the under this season — Colts under 15 of last 20 games.
+ In the first half, the under is 11-4 in the Colts 15 games this season, second-best firs half under win pct this season behind the Bucs.
+ Colts are 7-8 on a 6-point teaser this season, the worst record of any team in the NFL.
+ Colts have lost six straight games SU vs. teams .500 SU or better. Foles is 4-13 SU vs. teams .500 SU or better dating back to 2015.
+ Nick Foles vs. Matt Ryan vs. Sam Ehlinger
- NF: 0-1 SU/ATS, 3.4 QBR, -108.3% DVOA, -0.691 EPA/play (worst among QBs this season, min. 25 plays)
- MR: 4-7 SU, 6-6 ATS, 43.6 QBR, -23.4% DVOA, -0.053 EPA/play (38th among QBs, min. 50 plays)
- SE: 0-2 SU/ATS, 31.9 QBR, -50.2% DVOA, -0.312 EPA/play (56th among QBs)
+ The under is 33-14-1 (70.2%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ Giants are 11-4 ATS this season. Their best ATS start through 15 games since starting 11-4 ATS in 2008.
+ Daniel Jones has done a good job at closing out bad teams. He is 13-8 ATS vs. teams off a SU loss, covering five of his last six games in the spot.
- The Giants last home game vs. the Eagles went over the total. Prior to that, a whole 'lotta unders.
- Giants home unders are 17-3 in their last 20 games.
- Daniel Jones home unders are 19-8.
+ Best ATS division in the NFL? NFC East, 25-14-1 ATS this season against non-divisional opponents. The best ATS start for NFC East in last 20 years.
+ Largest Favorite Daniel Jones Career
-6.5 = 2020 at Bengals (W, 19-17)
-5.5 = 2022 vs. Colts
-5 = 2022 vs. Texans (W, 24-16)
-3.5 = 2019 vs. Cardinals (L, 27-21)
+ Giants are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 8-6-1 SU, a $100 bettor up $662.
| Mike White, NYJ | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-3 ATS 2-4 SU | 3-3 ATS 2-4 SU | 1-2 ATS 0-3 SU |
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
6-9 ATS 7-8 SU | 25-22-2 ATS 20-29 SU | 14-11 ATS 12-13 SU |
+ Sauce Gardner is the (-1200) favorite to win Defensive ROY, he opened at +1200 odds.
+ Garrett Wilson is the favorite (-200) to win Offensive ROY, he opened at +2000 odds.
Teams to have both DROY and OROY same season in Super Bowl era:
- 2017 Saints: Marshon Lattimore, Alvin Kamara
- 1967 Lions: Mel Farr, Lem Barney
+ The New York Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 11 years, the longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, they were +105 in Week 14 and they are now +400.
+ Jets scored just three points at home against the Jaguars last week. Teams to score six points or less are 11-2 ATS in the first half this season in their next game and 108-73-7 1H ATS (59.7%) since 2014.
+ Road teams traveling from EST to PST have performed well recently, going 63-43-5 ATS (59.4%) since 2016. When those teams are under .500 SU, like the Panthers, they are 36-17-2 ATS (67.3%) in that span.
+ Zach Wilson vs Mike White this season
- ZW: 5-4 SU/ATS, 37 QBR, -16.3% DVOA, -0.091 EPA/play (45th of 61 QBs)
- MW: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 48.4 QBR, +12.7% DVOA, +0.104 EPA/play (16th of 61 QBs)
+ Mike White passing yards prop is 3-0 to the over (BUF, MIN, CHI)
+ When a road team is favored this season, the under is 61-33-1. When the road team is favored by less than a FG, the under is 24-7-1 (77%).
+ Over the last 20 years, no Jets coach is above .500 ATS
- Eric Mangini 24-24-1
- Rex Ryan 50-50-2
- Robert Saleh 14-18
- Herman Edwards 21-25-4
- Todd Bowles 28-32-4
- Adam Gase 13-19
+ Seahawks have lost three consecutive games SU and 6 consecutive games ATS.
- Geno Smith had never even lost five straight games ATS in his career prior to last week (48 career starts).
- Seattle’s last six-game single-season ATS losing streak? 2000 (they lost six straight ATS).
+ Pete Carroll is 27-14-1 ATS at home off a SU loss. Since 2011, Seahawks are 24-11-2 ATS at home after a SU loss (1-3 ATS this season). Second-best of any team in that span. The most profitable? Vikings, who are 30-14-2 ATS.
+ Seahawks are 200-1 to win it all, their longest odds since being 300-1 back in Week 7.
Seahawks Super Bowl odds past four weeks: 50-1, 80-1, 150-1, 200-1
+ Geno is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in his last six starts. But the performance hasn’t been awful.
12 pass TD, five INT. Fout of six games above 50 QBR. Seahawks were sixth in DVOA pass in the first nine weeks and now they are 13th since Week 10.
+ Entering the Week 15 game vs. the 49ers, Geno Smith was -700 to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award (he was -900 entering Week 14).
Entering Week 16, he was down to +115, with Christian McCaffrey (+175) and Jared Goff (+225) coming up strong.
In Week 17 now: Saquon (+175), Geno (+175), CMC (+250)
+ On extended rest, Pete Carroll has lost five consecutive games SU and ATS.
+ Seahawks are one of eight teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Teams after facing the Chiefs this season are 11-3 SU in their next game, including winning 10 of their last 11 games.
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-0 ATS 3-0 SU | 3-0 ATS 3-0 SU | 1-0 ATS 1-0 SU |
| Jarrett Stidham, LV | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Brock Purdy has won his first three starts SU. First 49ers QB ever to accomplish that feat.
+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
49ers Record When Deebo Gets at Least One Target:
- With: 32-16 SU
- Without: 7-8 SU
+ Opposing QBs have gone over their completions prop vs. Raiders in 12 of their last 16 games dating back to last season (not including Rams game).
+ Raiders allow 23.3 PPG this season, which ranks in the bottom third in the NFL.
Kyle Shanahan is 15-26-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 38-16 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 22-11 SU, 21-11-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well.
+ The 49ers defense have outscored their opponents 117-37 in second halves of their last eight games.
+ Purdy is first QB drafted in seventh round or later to be favored in first four career starts since 1990.
- Rookie QBs are 11-9 SU, 13-7 ATS entering Week 17.
- Purdy starts his career 3-0 SU with multiple pass TD in first three starts. Only one other QB has done that since 1950: Kurt Warner (four straight).
- Purdy starts his career with multiple pass TD in first three starts. Most Consecutive Starts with Multiple Pass TD Begin Career: Marino 5, Cutler 4, Purdy 3, Mariota 3
+ The 49ers are 42-19 straight up and 35-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 12-29 SU and 19-22 ATS.
+ 49ers are now 2-30 SU when trailing by 3+ points entering fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan.
+ Kyle Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB
- Jimmy G: 35-25-1 ATS
- All others: 19-22 ATS
+ Defensive POY battle.
- Nick Bosa: -1100 (-130 last week)
- Micah Parsons: +600 (+100 last week)
Parsons was -500 entering Week 14 and -275 in Week 15
+ Nick Bosa (17.5) is now a full two sacks ahead of Matthew Judon (15.5) for the sack lead in the NFL. Bosa was 14-1 to lead the category in the preseason.
+ 49ers since getting Christian McCaffrey full time in Week 8:
49ers are 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS.
- Weeks 1-9 DVOA – Pass: ninth | Rush: 25th
- Weeks 10-17 DVOA – Pass: first | Rush: third
+ 49ers defensive ranks:
- First in points & yards/game.
- First in points & yards/play.
- First in opp yards/rush
- No. 1 defense in DVOA
- No. 1 rush defense in DVOA
+ The Raiders have preferred playing at home in Vegas this season. 4-2 ATS at home and 3-6 ATS on the road. Raiders are 2-7 SU on the road this year and 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games overall.
- Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and they've covered 6 of their last 9 games as a home underdog, all in Las Vegas.
+ Raiders are 0-4 this season when leading by double digits at halftime. They are first team since at least 1930 to lose four times in a season when leading by double digits at the half.
+ Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing (1,539). He leads by 110 yards over Derrick Henry. Jacobs was -165 to lead the NFL in rushing in Week 14 and was 40-1 to lead the league in the preseason.
+ Raiders went under their preseason win total (8.5) with the loss vs. Steelers.
+ Davante Adams has gone over his longest reception prop in six of his past eight games.
+ Overs are 15-7-1 (68.2%) at Allegiant Stadium, making the Raiders the 3rd-most profitable home team to the over since they moved to Vegas in 2020 (behind Vikings and Lions).
- Davante Adams hasn't caught a TD pass in three straight games, his longest drought as a Raider and longest drought since 2019 with the Packers.
The 49ers defense is allowing 15.3 PPG this season, best in the NFL. Over the last 3 seasons, the Raiders are 9-1 ATS vs. teams allowing fewer than 20 PPG. All ten of those games were started by Derek Carr.
https://twitter.com/ActionNetworkHQ/status/1608183749811871745
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-8-1 ATS 12-3 SU | 68-68-2 ATS 72-64-2 SU | 35-31-1 ATS 28-38-1 SU |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
7-8 ATS 7-8 SU | 138-99-5 ATS 157-84-1 SU | 72-41-4 ATS 92-24-1 SU |
+ The Vikings are now 12-3 with a +5 point differential. 11-0 SU in one-score games
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-40-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
- 1 p.m. ET or earlier: 47-37-2 ATS
- 4 p.m. ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ With its victory over the Giants in Week 15, the Vikings have won 14 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? Dec. 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ The 12-3 Vikings are listed as an underdog against the 7-8 Packers this week.
In the last 20 years, teams with at least a 70% win percentage who are listed as underdogs in December or later in the regular season are 48-68-3 ATS (41.4%), including 14-25-1 ATS since 2016.
+ Cousins is 9-18 ATS on extended rest in his career (eight days or more). In the last 20 years, Cousins is the third-least profitable QB on extended rest of 211 qualified QBs.
+ Justin Jefferson (1,756 rec yds) is 209 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson’s record for most receiving yards in a season (1,964 back in 2012).
With 133 receiving yards on Saturday, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is on pace for 1,990 yards for the season. With 244 in the final two games combined, he'll get 2,000.
+ Cousins is 28-39-2 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 17-31-2 ATS after a SU since 2017, least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
+ Vikings are 1 of 8 teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (CHI, PHI, DAL, SEA, ARI, MIN, JAC, DET).
+ Aaron Rodgers is 52-31 ATS vs. NFC North opponents in his career, including 14-8 ATS since 2019.
Rodgers has faced an NFC North rival with a 80%+ win percentage just twice in his career and happened both times in 2009 vs. Vikings. Rodgers was 0-2 SU/ATS.
+ When it comes to Rodgers’ passing yards, 260 seems to be a key number. Dating back to last season, he’s been under that number in 16 of his last 17 starts (over vs. Lions). He’s gone under 250 yards in 10 of his last 11 starts.
+ Rodgers is 5-9-1 against the second half spread this season and 6-13-1 2H ATS in his last 20 games overall.
+ If you would have bet Aaron Rodgers to throw an interception in each game this season, you would be up $700 on a $100 bet, the most profitable QB yes INT props of the season.
+ The 7-8 Packers are favored over the 12-3 Vikings this week. This will be just the 10th time in the last 20 years a team under .500 SU will be favored over a team with an 80%+ win pct in December or later. The previous nine teams listed as favorites went 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS against the great record, underdog team.
+ Rodgers is 27-4 SU, 21-10 ATS at home in December or later in the regular season (won 9 in a row SU).
+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they were +650 entering Week 16 and now they are down to +185.
+ Outdoor divisional unders are 33-15-1 (68.8%) this season — Best start for outdoor divisional unders in the last 20 years. Over the last two seasons, outdoor divisional unders are 69-43-1 (61.6%).
+ Packers have lost three of their last four games in January or later as favorites. In December though, they have been a juggernaut.
The Packers have won 14 consecutive games in December, tying the second-longest such streak in NFL history. The only team with a longer streak of December wins was the Chargers, who won 18 straight in the calendar's final month in 2006 to 2009.
| Baker Mayfield, LAR | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
3-5 ATS 2-6 SU | 28-40-1 ATS 32-37 SU | 16-20 ATS 12-24 SU |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
8-6-1 ATS 9-6 SU | 25-21-1 ATS 24-23 SU | 11-12-1 ATS 13-11 SU |
+ Baker Mayfield is 28-40-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, 269 QBs have started a game, Mayfield is the 263rd ranked QB ATS.
Mayfield covered the spread in his last game vs. Broncos. Baker has gone 18 starts since covering the spread in consecutive games.
Baker faces an opponent coming off a SU win in the Chargers, who have won three in a row and clinched a playoff berth last week. Mayfield is 12-25-1 ATS in his career facing an opponent off a SU win. Of 247 qualified QBs last 20 years, Mayfield is ranked 245th.
+ Rams are 6-10-1 ATS in their last 17 games dating back to last season.
+ Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 124-87-4 ATS (58.8%) since 2018.
+ Rams are 5-10 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $542 betting L.A., the 28th ranked team on the moneyline this season.
+ Rams were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 against the Packers. Los Angeles was +200 to miss the playoffs in the preseason.
+ The Rams have tied the 1999 Broncos for the most losses by a defending Super Bowl champion (10).
+ Justin Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
- Underdog: 11-6 ATS, 15-2 in 6-pt teasers
- Favorite: 14-15-1 ATS, 20-8 in 6-pt teasers
+ Chargers can go under their preseason win total (10.5) with a loss vs. Rams.
+ Justin Herbert is 13-30-4 (30%) against the second half spread in his career.
Herbert 2H in 2022: 4-9-2 ATS
+ Chargers O/U result under Brandon Staley based on what the total is.
- Under 50: 11-7 to over
- 50 or more: 9-5 to under
+ Chargers defense has stepped up lately, allowing 17 points or fewer in three straight games. Herbert is 8-3-1 ATS after the Chargers allow 20 points or fewer in their previous game.
+ Herbert by time zone
- EST/CST: 12-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 13-17-1 ATS
+ Chargers have been a much better road team than at home.
Herbert is 8-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. Chargers haven’t covered a home game since Week 1 vs. Raiders. Chargers are 10-19-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.
Chargers are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on road this season. They are top-five in road ATS profitability this season. Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons, including this year.
+ Teams after facing the Colts this season are 10-3-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Rams offense on the other side of Herbert has been pretty bad overall this year, averaging under 19 PPG. Herbert is 9-2 SU vs. teams scoring under 20 PPG on the season in his career.
| Kenny Pickett, PIT | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-4 ATS 5-5 SU | 6-4 ATS 5-5 SU | 3-2 ATS 2-3 SU |
| Tyler Huntley, BAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
2-1 ATS 2-1 SU | 5-2 ATS 3-4 SU | 3-1 ATS 1-3 SU |
+ Steelers-Ravens primetime history
- Steelers first road primetime game in Baltimore since 2014.
- Tomlin is 5-8 SU vs. Ravens in primetime. He’s only won once in primetime in Baltimore — Dec. 5, 2010 as 3-point dogs.
- Over the last 20 years, Pittsburgh and Baltimore have played four primetime games with a total below 37. Over is 4-0, Steelers are 3-1 in the four games.
+ Steelers now have to go 2-0 down the stretch to avoid Mike Tomlin's first losing season in his 16 years as head coach of the Steelers: at Baltimore, Cleveland.
+ Tomlin is 43-20-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 35-30 SU on the moneyline. This includes a 7-4 SU record as a dog in Week 5 or later vs. Ravens.
- With a win vs. the Ravens, the Steelers will go over their preseason win total (7.5).
Tomlin is 19-4-1 ATS (83%) as a division underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS as a division dog of four or more. From Week 14 forward, AFC North division underdogs are also quite profitable at 41-23-1 ATS (64%).
+ Tomlin is 11-5-1 ATS on extended rest since 2018, the most profitable coach in the NFL in that spot.
+ Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens over the last three seasons: 2, 3, 1, 5, 4. Over the last 15 Steelers-Ravens games, 12 of them (80%) have come down to a touchdown or less.
+ With T.J. Watt in action since drafting him in 2017, the Steelers are 57-26-2 straight up, without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up.
+ Mike Tomlin road unders are 73-54-1 (57%)
+ Mitch Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett this season
- MT: 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 57.2 QBR, +3% DVOA, +0.056 EPA/play (27th of 61 QBs)
- KP: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 46.8 QBR, -13% DVOA, -0.007 EPA/play (33rd of 61 QBs)
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 8-11 SU/ATS.
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 6-8-1 against the first half spread.
+ Over the last 20 years, the Ravens are 20-19-3 ATS vs. the Steelers.
+ Since 2018, Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. Ravens are 27-6 SU, but just 16-17 ATS in games vs. under .500 SU opponents.
In that span, they are 14-1 SU (7-8 ATS) at home. Their only loss? 2019 at home vs. Browns/Baker Mayfield.
+ Ravens can go over their preseason win total (10.5) with a win vs. Steelers.
+ Ravens since 2017
- Home: 22-28 ATS (2-5 ATS this season)
- Road: 30-18-1 ATS (5-3 ATS this season)
+ Lamar: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
Lamar: 22-30 ATS as favorite | 10-2 ATS as underdog
+ Demarcus Robinson caught a TD vs. the Falcons last week. Prior to that, a Ravens WR hadn't caught a TD since Week 3 with Devin Duvernay and a Ravens WR hadn't scored a TD since Week 8 (Duvernay).
+ Lamar is 22-8 SU and 10-20 ATS as a home favorite. Of 206 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 201st ATS as a home favorite.
Lamar as 7 pt favorite or higher: 23-4 SU, 15-2 SU at home & 12-15 ATS, 7-10 ATS at home
+ Teams after facing the Falcons this season are 3-10-1 SU in their next game, including 1-9-1 SU in their last 11 games.
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
6-8-1 ATS 12-3 SU | 43-33-5 ATS 54-27 SU | 22-15-2 ATS 23-16 SU |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
12-3 ATS 11-4 SU | 31-14 ATS 26-18-1 SU | 13-7 ATS 13-7 SU |
+ How rare a matchup is this in primetime this late in the season? Over the last 20 years, we’ve only seen eight primetime matchups of a team with an 80%+ win pct face a team with a 73%+ in December or later prior to this week (Bold was on MNF).
- 2022: Bills at Bengals – Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow
- 2020: Steelers at Bills (-2) == Ben Roethlisberger vs. Josh Allen (BUF 26-15)
- 2019: 49ers at Seahawks (+3.5) == Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Russell Wilson (SF 26-21)
- 2018: Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5) == Philip Rivers vs. Patrick Mahomes (LAC 29-28)
- 2016: Raiders at Chiefs (-3.5) == Derek Carr vs. Alex Smith (KC 21-13)
- 2013: Saints at Seahawks (-6.5) == Drew Brees vs. Russell Wilson (SEA 34-7)
- 2012: Texans at Patriots (-5.5) == Matt Schaub vs. Tom Brady (NE 42-14)
- 2010: Jets at Patriots (-4) == Mark Sanchez vs. Tom Brady (NE 45-3)
- 2003: Titans at Patriots (-6) == Steve McNair vs. Tom Brady (NE 17-14)
When the 80%+ win pct team closes as the underdog, they are 0-5 SU and ATS in this spot.
+ Since Week 14, the Bills have been favorites to win the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs.
+ Bengals are allowing 20.4 PPG this season. + Josh Allen vs. defenses allowing under 21 PPG: 14-6-1 ATS
+ Josh Allen is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road in January in his career (two of three losses vs. Chiefs).
+ Bills can go over their preseason win total (12) with a win vs. Bengals.
+ The under is 9-4 in the Bills last thirteen games (went over last week vs. Bears)
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 49-29-3 against the second half spread.
Allen is 9-1 2H ATS in December and 0-3 2H ATS in January in his career.
+ If Bills close as underdogs, all 32 teams will have been a dog once this season.
- How have Josh Allen and Joe Burrow performed on extended rest (eight days or more)? Advantage Joe.
- Joe Burrow: 6-3 ATS
- Josh Allen: 5-10-1 ATS
+ When a road team is favored this season, the under is 61-33-1. When the road team is favored by less than a FG, the under is 24-7-1 (77%).
- Bills road games are 7-1 to the under in 2022, going under the total by 7.2 PPG. Buffalo went over the total on the road in Chicago for the first time this season.
+ Bills are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine games.
+ Bengals are +750 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.
+ Burrow career: 26-18-1 SU, 31-14 ATS (+$1,446). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 19-3 ATS in his last 22 starts.
Burrow is 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in primetime (lost two straight SU)
+ Bengals are 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons, including the playoffs (26-10 ATS).
+ Bengals have won and covered seven straight games.
Last time Bengals won and covered six straight? To start the 1988 season (6-0 SU/ATS), which ended in a loss in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers.
Last time they won and covered seven straight? All the way back in 1970 (won and covered seven straight at the end of the season).
+ Burrow has faced an opposing offense averaging above 24 PPG seventeen times with the Bengals and Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS, covering nine in a row dating back to last season.
+ Teams after facing Patriots in New England
- 2021-22: 8-6-1 ATS
- 2018-20: 7-15 ATS
+ Bengals home/road in primetime
Home: Bengals have won four straight primetime home games SU and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home primetime games.
Road: Bengals are 1-22 SU and 5-16-2 ATS in their last 23 primetime road games.
+ Burrow is 21-6 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or above. In the last 20 years, he’s the 6th-most profitable QB ATS vs. .500 teams or above of 252 QBs.
Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Russ, Ben, Burrow
+ In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 31-13-1 (71%) against the second half spread, including 12-3 this season and 27-7-1 (79%) over the last two seasons.
+ Burrow has excelled in cold temperatures
- 50 degrees or less: 11-2 SU, 12-1 ATS
- 40 degrees or less: 5-0 SU/ATS
Market Movers
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 17 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 17; not including Thursday Night Football)
(-9.5) |
| 82% of bets at Raiders |
(-2.5) |
| 70% of bets at Ravens |
(-5.5) |
| 65% of bets vs. Saints |
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 17
(The most popular bet games for Week 17; not including Thursday Night Football)
(-5.5) |
| 45,000 betting tickets |
(-5.5) |
| 40,000 betting tickets |
(-3) |
| 35,000 betting tickets |
Biggest Line Moves in Week 17
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines; not including Thursday Night Football):
(+1.5 to -9.5) |
| 11-pt move at Raiders |
(+2.5 to -2.5) |
| 5-pt move vs. Dolphins |
(-1.5 to -5.5) |
| 4-pt move vs. Bears |
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Coming Soon: Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update first quarter, first half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.
Super Bowl Movers: The Packers and Panthers are on the rise heading into a pivotal week.
SB: 50-1 (GB was 200-1 to win SB last week)
SB: 150-1 (CAR was 400-1 to win SB last week)
Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
NFL Win Total Tracker
Here are your results entering Week 17:
- Over: Chiefs, Eagles, Vikings, Bengals, Giants, Lions, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Cowboys, 49ers, Jaguars.
- Under: Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Broncos, Colts, Saints, Cardinals, Texans, Bears, Raiders.
Defense Wins Out
When both teams are on extended rest (eight days or more between games), the under is 69-40-1 (63%) since 2018.
This week, coming off games on Saturday this week has a bunch of contests in that scenario:
NYJ/SEA, JAC/HOU, CHI/DET, PIT/BAL, CLE/WAS, NO/PHI, SF/LV, BUF/CIN
Just An Overreaction
So far this season, it's been profitable to back the inexperienced.
Backup QBs this year are 35-38 SU and 42-29-2 ATS, while rookie QBs are 11-9 SU and 13-7 ATS entering Week 17.
- The Favorites Podcast:As the NFL regular season enters its final weeks, teams across the league battle for playoff spots and division titles. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to preview all 16 games this week, including what should be a thrilling Monday Night Football game between the Bills and Bengals.
- Action Network Podcast: Action Network is wishing everyone a happy New Year with a few best bets from NFL betting experts Brandon Anderson, Gilles Gallant and Anthony Dabbundo. Together they join host Brendan Glasheen to dive into the NFL Week 17 slate. Plus, hear from Evan Abrams, Action Network Director of Research on some key trends and stats to keep an eye on this week and a special look-ahead spot from Brandon.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of 10 different options across eight different sports.
