Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 17 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 17 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 17 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Patriots
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 91.8%
2. Ravens
Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 88.8%
3. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 86.1%
4. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 84.1%
5. Saints
Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
6. Bills
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 77%
T-7. Vikings
Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
T-7. Packers
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
T-7. Rams
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
10. Broncos
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
11. Colts
Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 62%
12. Texans
Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-13. Eagles
Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-13. Browns
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
15. 49ers
Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
16. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
17. Falcons
Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
18. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-19. Giants
Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-19. Bengals
Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
21. Titans
Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
22. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 38%
23. Raiders
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
T-24. Bears
Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
T-24. Lions
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
T-24. Cardinals
Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
27. Jets
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 23%
28. Panthers
Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
29. Chargers
Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 15.9%
30. Redskins
Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 13.9%
31. Steelers
Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 11.2%
32. Dolphins
Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 8.2%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Ravens
Spread: 2
Opponent: vs. PIT
T-2. Texans
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. TEN
T-2. Seahawks
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. SF
T-4. Giants
Spread: 4.5
Opponent: vs. PHI
T-4. Cardinals
Spread: 5.5
Opponent: @ LAR
6. Patriots
Spread: -16
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-7. Vikings
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. CHI
T-7. Broncos
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. OAK
T-7. Bengals
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE
T-7. Jaguars
Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. IND
T-7. Jets
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ BUF
12. Redskins
Spread: 11.5
Opponent: @ DAL
T-13. Saints
Spread: -13
Opponent: @ CAR
T-13. Chargers
Spread: 9
Opponent: @ KC
T-15. Packers
Spread: -12.5
Opponent: @ DET
T-15. Buccaneers
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. ATL
T-15. Falcons
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ TB
T-15. Lions
Spread: 12.5
Opponent: vs. GB
T-19. Chiefs
Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. LAC
T-19. Panthers
Spread: 13
Opponent: vs. NO
21. Cowboys
Spread: -11.5
Opponent: vs. WAS
T-22. Bills
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ
T-22. Colts
Spread: -4
Opponent: @ JAX
T-22. Browns
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ CIN
T-22. Raiders
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ DEN
T-22. Bears
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ MIN
27. Dolphins
Spread: 16
Opponent: @ NE
T-28. Rams
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. ARI
T-28. Eagles
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: @ NYG
T-30. 49ers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ SEA
T-30. Titans
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ HOU
32. Steelers
Spread: -2
Opponent: @ BAL
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
