Jake Elliott
Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-105, DraftKings)
The Saints have allowed an average of 7.7 kicking points per game this season, but over their last 10 contests, that number sits at just 5.9.
Philly should be efficient on the ground against New Orleans, which ranks 21st in rush defense (per DVOA). That should lead to fewer fourth-down situations. And even on fourth downs, the Eagles have the lowest rate in the league on field goal attempts vs. expected in my model.
The Eagles are motivated to win this one to lock up home-field advantage – and boost the 2023 first-round draft pick they own via New Orleans – so expect them to make aggressive decisions.
There’s value on both field goals and extra points made individually, so I’m combining the two. My biggest projection value of the year, I have Elliott going under 65.4% of the time and I would bet this to -150.
Jason Sanders
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+150, BetMGM)
The big angle here is the quarterback switch from Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) to Teddy Bridgewater.
Tagovailoa’s absence hurts Miami’s touchdown chances significantly – only once in 12 games with Tagovailoa taking the majority of snaps have the Dolphins attempted fewer than two extra points.
In the three games Tagovailoa has missed or played less than half the snaps, Miami has attempted only four total extra points. That includes just two in the two games Bridgewater got the majority of snaps.
There’s a slight weather factor in this game with 11 mph crosswinds in New England.
I have Sanders staying under 46.9% of the time and I would bet to +135.
