If you want to add an extra edge to your card this Sunday, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the four PrizePicks props I’d consider playing this weekend.
Josh Reynolds
Over/Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
Since Jameson Williams' debut, Josh Reynolds has seen a significant drop in target market share.
After getting 28 targets between Weeks 3 and 5, Reynolds has just 13 receptions on 22 targets in the seven games since, including two weeks in which he was shut out.
In fact, Reynolds hasn’t played more than 65% of available offensive snaps in any of the past four games. He’s being phased out almost entirely.
Chicago has horrific defensive metrics, but its secondary has been playing slightly better. Safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson have posted some of their best PFF grades over the past three weeks.
In the end, Reynolds is just overvalued in the markets — his early season run and the early season Bears defense are inflating this number. In reality, Reynolds won’t get the snaps, routes or opportunities needed to cash over 30 receiving yards.
Reynolds has eclipsed this line just once in the past seven weeks, and our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for fewer than 25 receiving yards.
This is a must-play PrizePicks prop.
Pick:Under 30.5 receiving yards
Sam Darnold
Over/Under 28 Pass Attempts
The game script for this is likely not conducive to a “Sam Darnold Cooks” game. The Buccaneers just suck the volume out of any game with their elite defense and bottom-feeding offense.
For example, only five of the last 15 opposing quarterbacks have gone over their passing attempts total against Tampa. Meanwhile, Bucs unders have been money, and we project value on the under for this game, with Action Network’s PRO model making the total 38.4.
Expect a low-scoring, low-volume affair. Therefore, expect fewer passing opportunities and attempts for Darnold.
And it’s not like the Panthers want to throw the ball. Since Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over, Darnold has stayed short of 28 attempts in all four starts. Darnold is averaging just 22 pass attempts per game over the last month.
Surprisingly, it has worked. Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 plays, Darnold is first in EPA+CPOE composite since Week 12.
I’d expect another rush-heavy game script by Wilks and the Panthers in a relatively low-volume game. So, throw Darnold’s pass attempts under in your PrizePicks parlay.
Pick:Under 28 Pass attempts
Dalvin Cook
Over/Under 75.5 Rushing Yards
This game is the perfect Dalvin Cook game. The Packers have the worst rush defense in the NFL and are facing the high-volume Vikings and their superstar running back.
The Vikings, who are 25th in overall DVOA are overvalued, as Football Outsiders estimates they should have just 6.0 wins.
However, it’s pretty easy to read the Vikings. They’re a high-level offense and a bottom-five defense, which often leads to high-volume games.
Meanwhile, the Packers are 32nd in rush defense DVOA, 31st in rush EPA per play allowed and have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards. Green Bay can somewhat defend the pass, but the Packers have a poverty rush defense that tries to funnel opponents into throwing the ball.
Cook has lagged lately, but he has still cashed his rushing prop in nine of 15 games this season. That includes Week 1 against these Packers, when he recorded 20 carries for 90 yards.
I expect more of the same on Sunday, with Cook gaining an efficient 80 yards or more.
Pick:Over 75.5 rush yards
