NFL Week 18 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Preview

NFL Week 18 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Preview article feature image

The end of the regular season is upon us. We've reached Week 18 and we still have one playoff spot left to clinch and tons of different betting opportunities with incentives, milestones, and much more.

Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 18 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Jan. 1, at 5 p.m. ET.


Top NFL Things To Know

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Fade The Need

How To Bet Week 18

Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams who “need” to win at the end of the regular season.

From Stuckey: Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 105-69-4 (60%) against the spread (ATS).

For Week 18 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:

  • Saints at TB
  • Panthers at ATL
  • Jets vs. MIA

In addition, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 27-72-4 (27%) ATS against opponents with a 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.8 PPG dating back to 2007.

This week, that applies to the Colts, Dolphins, Falcons, and Buccaneers.


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Late Bloomers

Coaches Good in New Week 18

Week 18 is a new concept. Only three head coaches are 3-0 ATS or better in Week 18: Dan Campbell, Mike Tomlin, and Sean McDermott. If you include Week 17, your best coaches ATS over the last 20 years are Tomlin at 14-7 ATS, Campbell at 7-1 ATS, and Brian Daboll at 5-0.


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Big Numbers

Welcome To Week 18

The Ravens are 17.5-point favorites. The Lions and Vikings have a total of 57.

  • We haven’t seen a team close -18 or higher since the Cardinals in 2021, who closed -20.5 vs. the Texans.
  • In franchise history, the Ravens have never closed above a 17-point favorite.
  • Vikings/Lions would be the highest O/U in any game in over three years — Chiefs/Titans in 2021 was 59.

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Not A Rivalry

Clawing Their Way Back

The Bears haven't won on the road on a Sunday in three full calendar years now — 20 straight games. The last QB to win in this spot for Chicago? Nick Foles in Dec. 2021. In this span, every other team in the NFL has at least three SU road wins on a Sunday.

The Bears have lost 11 consecutive games SU vs. Green Bay and are 1-10 ATS, covering their last game earlier this season.

On the road this season, Caleb Williams is 0-7 against the first half spread – he is tied with Cam Newton in 2018 for most 1H ATS losses on the road without a cover in the last 20 years.


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Win Total History

Vikings Reach New Heights

The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they are now 14-2.

They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total. Since realignment in 2002, only the 2004 Chargers and 2004 Steelers finished 7.5 games above their win total.


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Just The Worst

Titans Make History

The Titans are 2-14 ATS this season – the worst mark for any team in the Super Bowl era. No team has lost 14 games or more ATS in a single season. An ATS win this week would still give them the worst record, with it previously being 3-13 ATS in the 16-game schedule era. This year, the Titans are 0-5 ATS when Mason Rudolph starts and 2-9 ATS when Will Levis starts.


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Chalk Show

Favorites Prevail

Favorites are now 61-16 (79.2%) straight-up since Week 13 after going 14-2 SU in Week 17. Overall, favorites are winning at a 72% clip outright in 2024, the third-best mark for a single-season since 1980.

Favorites of 6 pts or more are 29-1 SU since Week 13, with the only loss coming from the Colts against the Giants last week.

  • Favorites have gone 184-72 (72%) straight-up (SU) this year, the most profitable season since 2005. Favorites are 61-16 (79.2%) straight-up since Week 13.
  • It’s also the least-profitable season for underdogs on the moneyline since 2005.
  • Teams getting at least two-thirds – or 66% of spread bets – have gone 78-54-1 (59%) against the spread (ATS) == those teams are 73% on the moneyline and 36-8 SU (82%) since Week 13.
  • Home underdogs are just 43-57-3 (43%) ATS, which would be the least profitable season since 2005.
  • Favorites of 6 pts or more are 29-1 straight-up since Week 13 — Giants over Colts was the only upset.
  • Favorites are also 33-15 ATS (69%) since Week 15.

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Bo Knows

Nix Can Join Betting History

In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 11-5 ATS this year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco.

Nix has only closed as a favorite seven times in his 16 career starts, and he is 7-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 12.1 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts. Bo Nix was the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.

From Denver's point of view, they are 7-0 ATS as a favorite. No team in the Super Bowl era has ended a regular season 8-0 ATS as a favorite or better.


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Theirs To Lose

Detroit Rock City

Favorites in primetime night games are 45-12 SU (79%) this season, including 5-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 9-0 SU as favorites in night games, winning by 9.2 PPG.

When Jared Goff has played the Vikings as QB of Detroit, he is 7-0 ATS, the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.

Campbell is 50-28-1 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.

The Lions are 46-20-1 ATS (70%) in the regular season over the past four years — the best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 New England and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Super Bowl era.


Every NFL Game For Week 18

Click the green beaker for "Bet Labs Systems" or on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.


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Saturday, Jan. 4
4:30pm ET on ESPN
QB vs. Lamar Jackson
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Incentives:
Derrick Henry: 1,783 rush yds, 14 rush TD
+ Henry hitting 2,000+ rush yds at age 30 would be unheard of, as the current record is held by Barry Sanders who rushed for 2,053 at age 29 in 1997.
+ Henry is 283 rush yds shy of Ravens single-season record by Jamal Lewis in 2003.
+ Henry is 1 rush TD away from breaking Ravens single single-season rush record (Lewis, 2003).
+ Henry is 3 rush TD away from passing Jim Brown for 6th all-time.

Justice Hill: 42 rec, 383 rec yds
+ Needs 117 rec yds for $250K, needs 8 rec for $250K

Lamar Jackson: 39 pass TD (a career high. Never thrown 40+. 39 is already franchise record). 852 rush yds (142 away from 1,000)
Rashad Bateman: 8 rec TD
Myles Garrett: 14 sacks (tied with Trey Hendrickson for most in the NFL). Garrett has never led the NFL in sacks nor has a Cleveland Brown.


Ravens as Historic Favorites

➤ The Ravens are big favorites over the Browns. At anything above -16.5, it would be the biggest favorite this season.

No team has closed -17 or higher since November of last year, Cowboys -17.5 vs. Giants, won 49-17. We haven’t seen a team close -18 or higher since the Cardinals in 2021, who closed -20.5 vs. Texans.

In franchise history, the Ravens have never closed above a 17-point favorite, doing so back in 2019 against the Jets, winning 42-21. The Browns would most likely be their biggest underdog since 1999 in this game.

Browns' Biggest Underdog Games

➤ Browns Biggest Underdog
+21.5, 1975 at Raiders (L, 38-17)
+19, 1999 at Rams (L, 34-3)
+18, 1975 at Steelers (L, 31-17)
+17.5, 1968 at Colts (W, 30-20)
+17, 1999 at Jaguars (L, 24-7)

Rare -17 or Higher Closures in Late Season

➤ A team has closed -17 or higher in game 16 or 17 of the regular season six times since 1978.
2022-23 Eagles vs. NYG, -17 (W, 22-16)
2021-22 Patriots vs. JAC, -17 (W, 50-10)
2019-20 Patriots vs. MIA, -17.5 (L, 27-24)
2017-18 Patriots vs. NYJ, -17 (W, 26-6)
2012-13 Broncos vs. KC, -17 (W, 38-3)
1985-86 Dolphins vs. BUF, -17.5 (W, 28-0)

Browns vs. Ravens Recent Rivalry Trends

➤ Between 2008 and 2020, the Ravens went 22-4 SU vs. the Browns. Now, since 2021, the Browns actually lead the series matchups 4-3 after beating Baltimore in Week 8. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Cleveland.

Lamar Jackson's Home Divisional Record

➤ Lamar Jackson has played 15 home divisional games in his NFL career and he is 5-10 ATS – that is the fourth-worst mark for any QB since he entered the league.

Elite Passing Efficiency

➤ Lamar Jackson has 39 passing TDs and just 4 INT this season. Only one QB in history has thrown 40+ pass TD with 5 INT or fewer – Aaron Rodgers back in 2020.

Browns' Defensive Struggles Against #1 WRs

➤ The Browns are 31st in DVOA on defense against #1 WRs on the other side. Last week, Tyreek Hill went for 9 rec and 105 rec yds.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson's Second-Half Woes

➤ Dorian Thompson-Robinson has made five career starts and the Browns have scored 37 total pts in those games. The biggest issue for Cleveland and DTR is his second-half play, where he has 1 TD pass and 8 INT in his career. The Browns have lost all five second halves on the moneyline with DTR starting.

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Saturday, Jan. 4
8:00pm ET on ESPN
Joe Burrow vs. Russell Wilson
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Incentives:
Ja’Marr Chase: 117 rec, 16 rec TD, 1,612 rec yds
+ Chasing the Triple Crown. Leading in rec by 8 over Amon-Ra St. Brown, rec yds by 133 over Justin Jefferson and rec TD by 4 over Terry McLaurin.
+ Needs 1 rec TD to tie and 2 to break Carl Pickens (1995) for most in season in CIN history

Chase Brown: 990 rush yds (10 away from 1,000)
Joe Burrow: 4,641 pass yds (359 away from 5,000)
George Pickens: 900 receiving yds (100 away fro 1,000)
Tee Higgins: 858 receiving yds (142 away fro 1,000)
Trey Hendrickson: 14 sacks (tied with Myles Garrett for most in the NFL). Hendrickson has never led the NFL in sacks nor has a Cincinnati Bengal.


Steelers' Streak Against Bengals

➤ Steelers have won and covered three straight games vs. Bengals – the first time they have done that since 2016-17. You have to go back to 2012 for the last time they won and covered four straight vs. Cincinnati.

Steelers' Performance on Extended Rest

➤ This season, the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS when playing on extended rest, which they are this week after facing the Chiefs on Christmas.

Mike Tomlin has never finished a season 3-0 ATS or better on extended rest.

Steelers' Recent Losing Streak

➤ Steelers have now lost three straight games by 10+ pts within the same season for the first time since 1988.

In the Super Bowl era, we’ve had 10 teams who finished the season with a winning record and lost three straight games by 10+ pts. None made the Conference Championship game, while five of six who made the playoffs lost their first playoff game.

Turnover Troubles for Steelers

➤ Steelers have turned the ball over in nine consecutive games – their first time doing so since 2019.

Teams on a 3+ game losing streak, who have turned it over in 9+ straight games are 44-91 SU (33%) over the last 20 years. Pittsburgh will be just the third team above .500 SU in that spot, with 2017 Titans and 2009 Steelers.

Mike Tomlin as an Underdog in Divisional Matchups

➤ When Tomlin is listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent, the Steelers are 22-16 SU, 26-10-2 ATS. Tomlin hasn’t finished a season under .500 ATS in this spot since 2014 and is 2-1 ATS in 2024 so far.

Joe Burrow's December Dominance

➤ In December or later in his career, Joe Burrow is 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS. That ATS mark is the best among all QBs since he was drafted over the last three seasons.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on CBS
Bryce Young vs. Michael Penix Jr.
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Incentives:
Drake London: 90 receptions (10 away from 100)
Darnell Mooney: 992 receiving yards (8 away from 1,000)


Bryce Young Under Fire

➤ Bryce Young was pressured on 68.6% of his dropbacks (24 times) against the Buccaneers last week, the highest pressure rate faced by a quarterback in a game this season entering Week 18.

Young has been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

Panthers' First Half Defensive Struggles

➤ The Panthers give up a lot of points, especially in the first half. This season, Panthers games are 13-3 to the first half over, going over the 1H total by 5.9 PPG.

No team has finished with three 1H over losses or fewer in a full regular season since the Cowboys (13-3) in 2020, while the Bucs in 2019 went 14-2 to the 1H over — which is the golden standard in terms of 1H overs over the last 20 years.

Bryce Young's ATS Improvement

➤ Bryce Young started his career 1-7-1 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or better. Since November 1st, Carolina and Young are 3-1 ATS in that spot with their first ATS loss recently coming last week vs. Bucs.

Penix's High-Risk, High-Reward Performance

➤ After two weeks, Michael Penix Jr. has played pretty well, but his one note so far is his completion pct over expected in the last two weeks is ranked 27th of 33 QBs with at least 30 plays. Granted, he also has the fourth-highest average depth of target at 9.8 yds per attempt, which would rank between 2nd and 3rd over the full 2024 season.

Raheem Morris' Coaching ATS Trends

➤ Six QBs have played under Raheem Morris in the NFL and only one is above .500 ATS — Matt Ryan, who went 6-5 ATS.

This isn’t the best spot for Morris either. As a head coach, he is just 6-9 ATS as a favorite of 3 pts or more and a putrid 12-23 ATS as a head coach at home, which would be the eighth-worst mark for any coach since 2003.


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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on FOX
Jayden Daniels vs. QB
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Incentives:
Austin Ekeler: 355 rush yds, 346 rec yds
+ Needs 145 rush yds for $125K, needs 154 rec yds for $125K

Zach Ertz: 61 rec, 610 rec yds
+ Needs 9 rec ($250K), 90 rec yds ($250K)

Dante Fowler: 9.5 sacks
+ Needs 1.5 more sacks for $375K (needs 11)

Frankie Luvu: 8 sacks
+ Needs 2 sacks for $325K

Jayden Daniels: 864 rush yds (136 away from 1,000)
Brian Robinson: 789 rush yds (211 away from 1,000), 8 rush TD
Micah Parsons: 9.5 sacks (going for 4th straight year of 10+ sacks)


Commanders and Cowboys' One-Sided Rivalry

➤ The Commanders and Cowboys rarely play close games. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, they’ve played each other 11 times, with nine of those 11 meetings having a final margin of 10 pts or more and 8 of 11 a margin of 15+ pts. The last six meetings have been decided by 8, 28, 35, 20, 15 and 42 pts.

Cowboys' Slow Starts at Home

➤ Cowboys have had a tough time starting fast at home this year, they are 2-6 against the first quarter spread. Last year, they went 7-0-1 1Q ATS at home.

Mike McCarthy's ATS Record With Star QBs

➤ Mike McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Brett Favre as his QB and he is 21-22 ATS with all other QBs, including just 7-12 ATS in divisional games.

Jayden Daniels' Historic Season

➤ Jayden Daniels is 10-5-1 ATS this season in his 16 starts, including 7-3 ATS when listed as a favorite. He has closed as a favorite twice on the road this year and is 2-0 SU in those games, winning by tight margins.

Daniels is having a truly historic season. He’s only the second QB to have 3,500+ pass yds, 25+ pass TD, 800+ rush yds and 5+ rush TDs, joining Kyler Murray from 2020.

This season, Daniels is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU – with his only SU win coming vs. Bears in a Hail Mary.

4th Quarter Struggles for Commanders and Cowboys

➤ Executing in the fourth quarter has been an issue for Washington this year, but it’s been the same for Dallas. Commanders and Cowboys are both 5-11 against the 4th quarter spread this year, tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL ahead of only the 49ers. The difference has been in the first quarter.

1Q ATS: WAS 10-5-1, DAL 7-8-1
4Q ATS: WAS 5-11, DAL 5-11


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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on FOX
Caleb Williams vs. Jordan Love
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Incentives:
Caleb Williams: 67 sacks
+ 9 sacks away from David Carr record of 76

D’Andre Swift: 894 rush yds (106 away from 1,000)
DJ Moore: 89 receptions (11 away from 100), 880 receiving yds (120 away from 1,000)
Jayden Reed: 809 receiving yds (191 away from 1,000)


Caleb Williams' Sack Struggles

➤ Sacks continue to be an issue for Caleb Williams and the Bears. He has been sacked 67 times this season – the fourth-most ever since sacks were recorded in 1982.

Most Sacks in a Season:
76 – David Carr, 2002
72 – Randall Cunningham, 1986
68 – David Carr, 2005
67 – Caleb Williams, 2024

Punting More Than Passing

➤ "You won’t have to punt much" – Caleb Williams.

Well, entering the final week of the season, Bears punter Tory Taylor is out-pacing Caleb.

Tory Taylor: 3,657 punt yds
Caleb Williams: 3,347 pass yds

Bears' Road Losing Streak

➤ The Bears haven't won on the road on a Sunday in three full calendar years now — 20 straight games. The last QB to win in this spot for Chicago? Nick Foles in Dec. of 2021.

In this span, every other team in the NFL has at least three SU road wins on a Sunday.

Division Struggles for the Bears

➤ The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 10-23-2 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers, and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,342. That makes Chicago the least profitable team vs. its own division in the NFL in that span.

Bears' Miserable Record Against the Packers

➤ Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers four times in a total of 32 meetings. Over the last 20 years, the Bears are a putrid 13-30-1 ATS (30%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,777, Chicago’s worst opponent ATS.

The Bears have lost 11 consecutive games SU vs. Green Bay and are 1-10 ATS, covering their last game earlier this season.

Chicago's Slow First-Half Starts

➤ Starting strong has been an issue for Chicago this year. Caleb Williams is 5-11 against the first half spread this year, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL.

On the road this season, Caleb is 0-7 against the first half spread – he is tied with Cam Newton in 2018 for most 1H ATS losses on the road without a cover in the last 20 years.

Worst 1H ATS Road Record Last 20 Years:
2024 Caleb Williams 0-7
2018 Cam Newton 0-7
2017 Jay Cutler 0-6

Struggles Within the NFC North

➤ Bears haven’t won a ton of games this year, but they are 0-5 SU vs. the NFC North and 0-5 SU the week after facing their own division.

Matt LaFleur's Bounce-Back Ability

➤ Matt LaFleur is 19-11 ATS after a SU loss as coach of the Packers, including 3-1 ATS this season. In his career, he is 11-6 ATS after a SU loss in November or later.

Packers' Second-Half Dominance

➤ Packers continue to be a good second-half team. This season, they are 11-5 against the second half spread and they are 24-11 2H ATS over the last two seasons, best mark in the NFL.

Packers' Strong Record Against Losing Teams

➤ This season, the Packers' losses have come to only the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions, who have a combined record of 41-7 SU.

This season, the Packers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. teams under .500. LaFleur, in his career, is 33-12 SU vs. under .500 teams, winning 11 in a row.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on CBS
QB vs. QB
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Incentives:
Tony Pollard: 1,017 rush yds, 5 rush TD
+ Needs 83 rush yds for $250K, needs 2 rush TD for $200K

Danielle Hunter: 99.5 sacks
+ 0.5 sack shy of reaching 100 for his career
+ 2 sacks off the league lead by Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson

Joe Mixon: 993 rush yds (7 away from 1,000)
Nico Collins: 968 receiving yds (32 away from 1,000)
Calvin Ridley: 941 receiving yds (59 away from 1,000)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 9 rec TD


Texans Win Total Time

➤ In the preseason, the Texans win total closed at 9.5 and Houston has 9 wins entering Week 18. The Texans have lost two straight games vs. the Chiefs and Ravens to be in this spot now.

Texans' Recent Dominance Over Titans

➤ The Texans had dominated the Titans in recent history entering their matchup back in Week 12, but Tennessee beat them behind 32 pts in Houston. Texans are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings, including DeMeco Ryans being 2-1 SU/ATS against them. In their 44-game matchup history, Houston has closed -8 or higher once, and that was in 2012 as a 13-pt favorite vs. Titans.

Texans' Performance on Extended Rest

➤ Texans are coming off some extended rest to face the Titans on the road this week. DeMeco Ryans has coached four games on extended prep and Houston is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS, covering three in a row. Houston’s defense has done a good job in these games allowing 15 pts or less in three of the games and 26 pts to Detroit. Playing on short rest hasn’t been a good thing for the Texans this year. They are 0-4 SU/ATS.

Titans' Historically Bad ATS Season

➤ The Titans are 2-14 ATS this season – the worst mark for any team in the Super Bowl era. No team has lost 14 games or more ATS in a single season. An ATS win this week would still give them the worst record, with it previously being 3-13 ATS in the 16-game schedule era. This year, the Titans are 0-5 ATS when Mason Rudolph starts and 2-9 ATS when Will Levis starts.

Titans' Losing Streak Challenges

➤ Titans are on a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak entering this week. For Tennessee, teams on a 4+ game SU/ATS losing streak are covering just 44.6% of games when having to face a divisional opponent since 1990.

Texans' First-Half Success

➤ Texans are 12-4 against the first half spread this season – that is tied with the Lions for the best mark in the NFL this year. As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 24-11 1H ATS, including 24-9 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Houston is also 4-12 against the second half spread, the 2nd-worst mark of any team in the NFL, just ahead of the 49ers.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on FOX
Mac Jones vs. QB
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Incentives:
Jonathan Taylor: averaging 96.5 rush yds per game (269 rush att for 1,254 rush yds)

Colts' Historical Struggles Against Jaguars

➤ In Week 5, the Colts lost outright but covered against the Jaguars.

The Colts have historically struggled with the Jaguars. Indy is 15-26-2 ATS vs. Jacksonville in the last 20 years – Indy’s least profitable opponent ATS.

It hasn’t been any better lately. They are 2-7 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2020 and 3-15-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville since 2015.

Colts haven’t covered consecutive games vs. Jaguars since 2014, and they lost at home to the Jaguars back in Week 1 of last season – they haven’t lost consecutive home games vs. Jacksonville since 2011-12.

Doug Pederson's Contrasting ATS Records

➤ Two sides to the puzzle.

Doug Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite in his career as a head coach.

Underdog: 40-30 ATS
Favorite: 31-37 ATS

With Mac Jones, Pederson is 3-3 ATS. Under Belichick, Mac was 16-26-1 ATS.

Colts' Tough Loss Against the Giants

➤ Colts had a terrible loss last week to the Giants. Since 2019, teams in Week 15 or later, who have a win pct of 40% or higher, who just lost to a team with a win pct of 25% or less are 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS.

Colts' Dominance Within the AFC South

➤ Colts have played five games vs. the AFC South this season and they are 5-0 ATS in those games. Outside of the AFC South, Indy is just 4-7 ATS this season.

Indy is the only 5-0 ATS or better team vs. their own division this season. In the last 20 years, only 8 teams have finished a regular season 6-0 ATS or better, and only three have done so without making the playoffs: 2022 Lions, 2012 Rams, and 2010 Raiders.


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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on CBS
QB vs. QB
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Incentives:
Josh Allen: MVP ($1.5M), 3,731 pass yds
+ Next Josh Allen rush TD he ties Thurman Thomas for 45th all-time.

Von Miller: 5 sacks
+ Needs 1 sack for $1.5M

James Cook 15 rush TD, 981 rush yds (19 away from 1,000), 4.98 yards per carry (197 for 981)
+ Needs 1 rush TD to tie OJ Simpson for most single-season Bills history
+ Cook leads NFL in rushing TD by 1 over Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Jalen Hurts

Rhamondre Stevenson: 801 rush yds (199 away from 1,000)
Khalil Shakir: 821 receiving yds (179 away from 1,000)


Patriots' Struggles as Underdogs

➤ Since 2021, the Patriots are 9-34 SU as an underdog, the second-least profitable mark in the NFL, ahead of just the Bears. Drake Maye has started his career 2-9 SU as a dog.

Patriots' Inability to Overcome Deficits

➤ Don’t fall behind. Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-29 SU and 5-26-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL.

Drake Maye's First-Half Struggles

➤ Drake Maye has made 11 career starts in the NFL. He is 3-8 against the first half spread, the second-worst mark for any QB in the NFL this season, ahead of just Caleb Williams.

The Patriots are 29th in first half PPG this season after being 30th in 2023 and 25th in 2022.

Patriots Post-Blowout Woes

➤ Patriots lost 40-7 to the Chargers last week, playing on Saturday. Over the last two seasons, New England is 0-4 SU and ATS after losing their previous game by 20+ pts.

Bills' Defensive Struggles

➤ The Bills defense has been an issue lately. Since Week 9, they are 30th in success rate, their pass defense is 29th in EPA per dropback and dead last, 32nd in dropback success rate.

Josh Allen's Second-Half Dominance

➤ Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second half spread in 10 straight games. Allen is 14-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL by 2+ games.

Over the last 20 years, only two teams had 2 second half ATS losses or fewer during a full regular season: 2020 Washington at 13-2-1 2H ATS and 2012 Broncos at 14-1-1 2H ATS.

Under Allen, the Bills are 73-43-3 (63%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on CBS
QB vs. QB
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Incentives:
Saquon Barkley: 2,005 rush yds, 13 rush TD, 15 total TD
+ Eric Dickerson record is 2,105 rush yds (100 yds away)
+ Holds lead in total scrimmage yds ($500K). Leads by 330 yds over Henry.
+ Barkley trails LeSean McCoy’s 2011 Eagles rush TD record by 4 and his total TD record by 5

Josh Sweat: 8 sacks
+ Needs 2 more sacks (has 8) ($1M), needs 3 more sacks for $500K and 4 more sacks for $500K.

Malik Nabers: 162 targets, 104 rec
+ NFL lead this season in targets – Nabers needs 6 targets to break the rookie record (set by Terry Glenn in 1996).
+ Nabers leads by 1 target over Ja’Marr Chase. No rookie has led NFL in targets since 1992 (inception of stat).
+ 4 rec behind Bowers for rookie reception record

Most Rookie Receptions:
2024 Brock Bowers, 108
2023 Puka Nacua, 105
2024 Malik Nabers, 104

DeVonta Smith: 833 receiving yds (167 away from 1,000), 8 rec TD
Jalen Hurts 2,903 pass yds
Tyrone Tracy: 780 rush yds (220 away from 1,000)


Giants' Road Losing Streak in Philadelphia

➤ The Giants haven’t won outright on the road in Philadelphia since 2013 behind Eli Manning, Peyton Hillis, and Victor Cruz, who beat a combo of Mike Vick and Matt Barkley for the Eagles.

The Eagles have won 11 straight home games outright vs. the Giants.

Giants' Decade-Long Road Struggles

➤ Giants have finished below .500 SU on the road in thirteen straight seasons now, last finishing above .500 SU on the road back in 2011. Since 2021, they are 9-24 SU on the road, the third-worst win pct in the NFL.

Brian Daboll's Late-Season ATS Dominance

➤ Nobody covers the spread late in the season like Brian Daboll. In his 15th game of the season or later, Daboll is 8-2 ATS, including 6-1 ATS in game 16 or later and 5-0 ATS in Week 17 and 18 of the regular season.

Over the last 20 years, no other coach is 5-0 ATS or better in Week 17 or later of the regular season.

On the other side, Nick Sirianni is actually 1-6 ATS in Week 17 or later of the regular season, the worst mark for any head coach in that span.

Eagles' Second-Half Success

➤ Eagles have been a great second-half team this year. They are 12-4 against the third quarter spread and 11-5 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 23-9 in those quarters in the second half – overall, they are 11-5 against the second-half spread this season.

Jalen Hurts' ATS Record With Eagles

➤ Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 34-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 9-10-2 ATS vs. the NFC East and 17-13-1 ATS when playing at home.

For comparison, we’ve only seen five games without him since that point – four were started by Gardner Minshew. He went 1-3 SU/ATS, but the Eagles scored 25.8 PPG in the four games – and one started by Kenny Pickett last week, they won 41-7.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
1:00pm ET on FOX
Spencer Rattler vs. Baker Mayfield
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Incentives:
Baker Mayfield: 107.6 pass rtg (4th), 39 pass TD (2nd), 4,279 pass yds (3rd), 71.8% comp pct (2nd), 8.0 Y/A (7th)
+ Each playoff win ($500K+), top-10 NFL or top-5 NFC in passer rating, touchdown passes, passing yards, completion percentage or yards per pass ($500K each)
+ Baker Mayfield has 15 INT, 1 shy of the NFL lead of 16 by Kirk Cousins

Mike Evans: 65 rec (35th), 915 rec yds (26th), 11 TD (T-3rd), 56.8% offensive snaps (610/1,074)
+ Finishes top 10 in rec TDs ($666K), $666K each If he was t-10 in rec yds or receptions.
+ Make playoffs + 60% offensive snaps ($500K for each playoff win).
+ Needs 5 rec, 85 rec yds for $3M.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 16 rec, 378 rec yds, 4 rec TD
+ Needs 9 rec ($250K), 172 rec yds ($250K), 1 TD ($250K), 3 TDs ($250K)


Baker Mayfield as a Heavy Favorite

➤ Baker Mayfield has never closed as a 14-pt favorite or higher in his NFL career. He’s closed as a double-digit favorite five times, and his teams are 5-0 SU but just 1-4 ATS in those games.

Baker's Divisional ATS Split

➤ Against divisional opponents, Mayfield has been dreadful at home ATS but better on the road. He is 5-11 ATS at home and .500 ATS at 10-10 on the road.

He’s the second-worst QB ATS vs. divisional opponents since he was drafted, ahead of only Kyler Murray.

Baker Mayfield's Best Year to the Over

➤ The over is 11-5 when Mayfield has started the game this season, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just Lamar Jackson at 12-4.

Mayfield entered this year 48-41-1 to the under in his NFL career, with this being by far his best year to the over.

Bowles and Mayfield's Profitable Partnership

➤ Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield have been a good marriage. They are 22-13 ATS as a duo, covering the spread by 5.1 PPG. Baker is Bowles’ most profitable QB ATS, and Bowles is Baker’s most profitable coach ATS.

Bowles is 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs, and Mayfield is 29-41-1 ATS with all other coaches.

Saints' ATS Struggles Away From Home

➤ Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistently a road team vs. home team. They are 25-36 ATS at home and 34-24-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral).

The problem? New Orleans has lost five straight road/neutral games ATS entering this one, the longest stretch since losing six straight ATS away from home back in 2013.

Buccaneers' First-Quarter Efficiency

➤ The Buccaneers have played well in the first quarter this year. Their 10 scores on 1st drives are tied for most in the NFL, and their 8 TDs are also tied for most.

That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 25, 2nd-lowest). Bucs are 10-5-1 against 1st quarter spread this year.

Saints' Dependence on Derek Carr

➤ The Saints are 5-11 SU this season. They are 5-5 SU with Derek Carr and 0-6 SU with Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler.

In the six games with a backup, the Saints have lost by 19.2 PPG, with opponents scoring 25, 34, 20, 26, 33, and 51 pts. With Carr, they are outscoring opponents by 6.3 PPG.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
4:25pm ET on CBS
Carson Wentz vs. Bo Nix
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Incentives:
DeAndre Hopkins: 56 rec, 610 rec yds, 5 rec TD
Needs 10 rec ($250K), needs 141 rec yds ($250K), needs 1 more TD ($500K)

Courtland Sutton: 983 rec yds
Needs 82 rec yds ($500K)


Bo Nix's Impressive ATS Rookie Season

➤ In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 11-5 ATS this year, including 5-2 ATS at home.

Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11+ games in a season in the Wild Card era, since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco.

Broncos' Back-to-Back Extended Rest Games

➤ Broncos enter this game on extended rest after playing their last game on extended rest as well.

Historically, these teams are about 60% SU when the 2nd game is at home, but recently covering has been an issue. Since 2020, they are just 16-26-1 ATS.

Chiefs' Second-Half Under Trend

➤ Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games are 27-10 (73%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG.

That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.

Chiefs Without Mahomes as a Starter

➤ Since 2018, Patrick Mahomes’ first year as the full-time starter, another QB has started for KC four times. Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, and Chad Henne. KC is 2-2 SU and ATS in those games, with 3 of the 4 games decided by one score.

The Chiefs as a franchise haven’t closed as a double-digit underdog since 2014 against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Andy Reid's Double-Digit Underdog Record

➤ Since 2007, Andy Reid has closed as a double-digit underdog five times, and his teams are 1-4 SU but a perfect 5-0 ATS, two coming with the Chiefs and three with the Eagles.

This will be the 11th time since 1990 a team with a win percentage of 70% or higher is an underdog of 7.5 pts or more in their 16th game or later of the regular season – basically signaling a bunch of starters out. Those teams are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS, with dogs of more than 9 pts 4-0 ATS and dogs of 9 pts or less 0-6 ATS in this spot.

Carson Wentz's Struggles in Recent Starts

➤ If Carson Wentz does get the start, here’s an idea of the QB we may see.

Since 2022, he’s had 385 plays at QB, which ranks 53rd in the NFL. Of the 67 QBs with at least 200 plays, here are some of his ranks: 42nd EPA/play, 45th success rate, 56th in completion pct over expected.

Wentz’s biggest issue has been on early downs. On 1st & 2nd down, he’s 56th of 59 QBs in completion pct over expected. In his last ten starts for the Rams, Commanders, and Colts, Wentz is 3-7 SU/ATS.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
4:25pm ET on CBS
QB vs. QB
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Incentives:
JK Dobbins: 842 rush yds, 9 rush TD
Needs 58 rush yds ($150K), needs 208 rush yds for extra $150K and needs 358 rush yds for extra $150K

Brock Bowers: 108 rec, 1,144 rec yds
+ Bowers tries to hold the lead in receptions for rookie all-time (Nabers)
+ Bowers is 9 receptions away from breaking the all-time TE record by Zach Ertz in 2018 (116).

Most Rookie Receptions:
2024 Brock Bowers, 108
2023 Puka Nacua, 105
2024 Malik Nabers, 104

Jakobi Myers: 904 receiving yds (96 away fro 1,000)
Quentin Johnston: 8 rec TD


Chargers' Road Struggles Against Raiders

➤ Chargers have lost three straight games both SU and ATS playing on the road against the Raiders – the first time they’ve done that since 1975-77, when they lost by a combined score of 73-0.

Raiders' Rare Winning Streak

➤ This is called a win streak – the Raiders' first in a full calendar year. Raiders have been so bad after wins in the last 30+ years, Antonio Pierce at 5-2 ATS is their best coach since 1990 after a SU win.

Since 2003, Raiders are 50-72-1 ATS (40%) after a SU win, the worst mark of any franchise in the NFL.

After the Raiders have won a game SU, Aidan O’Connell is 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by 8.5 PPG. Raiders are even 3-2 SU in those games.

Low-Win Teams on a Win Streak

➤ Teams on a 2+ game win streak who have a win pct of 33% or less are 25-39 SU and 29-34-1 ATS since 1990. In Week 15 or later, they are 11-17-1 ATS.

Raiders' First and Third Quarter ATS Struggles

➤ Raiders have struggled coming out of the locker room at home this year – both in the first quarter and 3rd quarter. They are 2-5 1Q ATS at home and 2-5 3Q ATS at home.


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Sunday, Jan. 5
4:25pm ET on FOX
QB vs. Matthew Stafford
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Incentives:
Geno Smith: 4,097 pass yds, 70.2% comp pct
+ Make playoffs ($2M), needs 186 pass yds ($2M), 69.75% season comp. pct ($2M)
+ He can break own SEA single-season pass yds record of 4,282 in 2022
+ Geno has 15 INT, 1 shy of the NFL lead of 16 by Kirk Cousins

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 96 rec, 1,121 rec yds
+ Needs 4 to tie Tyler Lockett’s SEA record of 100 rec in 2020
+ Needs 182 rec yds to tie DK Metcalf’s SEA record of 1,303 in 2020

Matthew Stafford: 59,809 pass yds career, 3,762 pass yds on season
+ 191 pass yds shy of 60K

Zach Charbonnet: 8 rush TD
Puka Nacua: 990 receiving yards (10 away from 1,000)
DK Metcalf: 939 receiving yds (61 away from 1,000)


Sean McVay's Dominance Over Seahawks

➤ Sean McVay has dominated the Seahawks. He is 11-5 ATS vs. Seattle as coach of the Rams, including 10-2 ATS since 2019, covering the spread by over 5 PPG.

Geno Smith has faced McVay five times in his career and he is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.8 PPG. In Smith's career, he is 2-9 ATS vs. McVay and Kyle Shanahan.

McVay is 30-19-1 ATS vs. the NFC West in his coaching career. He is just 44-45-3 ATS vs. all other divisions. McVay is just 7-10 ATS vs. 49ers, but he is a combined 23-9-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals and Seahawks.

Seattle's NFC West ATS Struggles

➤ The NFC West hasn’t been a friendly place for Seattle entering this season. You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last season they finished above .500 ATS vs. their own division.

This year, they are 3-2 ATS vs. NFC West entering Week 18.

McVay's Extended Rest Struggles

➤ Dating back to the Rams-Bengals Super Bowl in 2022, Sean McVay is 2-8-1 ATS on extended rest as coach of the Rams. He was 12-9-2 ATS in that spot previous to this stretch.

McVay was 8-6-2 ATS on extended rest with Goff and 6-11-1 ATS with Stafford and Baker Mayfield.

Matthew Stafford's 2H ATS Challenges

➤ Matthew Stafford is 15-25-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022 – the second-worst mark in the NFL ahead of only Justin Herbert. Since 2019, he is 32-52-2 2H ATS.

Stafford can’t hold a lead. He’s 0-5 2H ATS this season after leading at the half and 2-15 2H ATS over the last three seasons in that spot.

Rams' Unique Low-Scoring Streak

➤ Rams are the first team to win 3 consecutive games SU in the same season while scoring less than 20 points in every game since the Tim Tebow-led Broncos in 2011.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
4:25pm ET on FOX
QB vs. Aaron Rodgers
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Incentives:
Calais Campbell: 4 sacks
+ Needs 1 sack for $300K, 2 sacks for $100K, 3 sacks for $325K

Aaron Rodgers: 499 career pass TD
Breece Hall: 819 rush yds (181 away from 1,000)
De’Von Achane: 786 rush yds (214 away from 1,000)
Garrett Wilson: 97 receptions (3 away from 100)
Davante Adams: 975 receiving yds (25 away from 1,000)
Tyreek Hill: 939 receiving yds (61 away from 1,000)
Jonnu Smith: 828 receiving yds (172 away from 1,000)
Tua Tagovailoa: 2,867 pass yds (133 away from 3,000)


Jets' Historical Struggles Against Dolphins

➤ Historically, the Jets have struggled when facing the Dolphins. They are 3-14 SU and 5-11-1 ATS since 2016, their least profitable opponent ATS in that span.

Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets five times in his career and he is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games. In Tagovailoa's career, he is 12-0 SU vs. the Jets and Patriots and 1-8 SU vs. the Bills.

Aaron Rodgers' CPOE Concerns

➤ Aaron Rodgers enters this week with a -2.6% completion pct over expected this season – ranks 36th of 41 QBs. He also has an average depth of target of just 6.9 yds downfield. This season, a CPOE that bad, with an aDOT that low includes Rodgers, Jacoby Brissett, and Cooper Rush with at least 200 plays. In 2023, it was Easton Stick and Tommy DeVito.

Jets Avoiding Historically Poor ATS Season

➤ As bad as the Jets have been in recent history, they haven’t finished a season 6+ games below .500 ATS since 1989, when they went 4-12 ATS.

Jets' Post-Bills Game Curse

➤ Dating back to 2012, the Jets are an unbelievable 0-20 SU and 1-19 ATS in the game directly after facing the Bills.

Jeff Ulbrich's Struggles as Jets' Coach

➤ Jeff Ulbrich has begun his Jets stint 3-8 ATS. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.

Dolphins' Record Against Winning Teams

➤ Since 2021, the Dolphins are 5-19 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 25-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.

From Tagovailoa's standpoint, he is 6-16 SU and 9-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU in his career and 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.

Even though Tagovailoa has had his road struggles, he’s won five consecutive games SU on the road vs. teams below .500 SU.

Tyler Huntley's Road ATS Success

➤ Tyler Huntley has started 14 games in his career, and he is 8-6 ATS, including 5-2 ATS on the road and 3-0 ATS as a road favorite.

Huntley has been a first-half QB. He’s 10-4 1H ATS in his career, covering by over a FG per game, .500 1H ATS or better in all four seasons.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
4:25pm ET on FOX
QB vs. QB
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Incentives:
James Conner: 8 rush TD
George Kittle: 8 rec TD
Jauan Jennings: 923 receiving yds (77 away from 1,000)
Marvin Harrison Jr.: 822 receiving yds (178 away from 1,000)
Brock Purdy: 3,864 pass yds (136 away from 4,000)
Nick Bosa: 9 sacks (going for 4th straight season of 10+ sacks)


Cardinals Win Total Time

➤ In the preseason, the Cardinals win total closed at 7 and Arizona has exactly 7 wins entering Week 18. The Cardinals have lost two straight games and five of their last six games to be in this spot now.

Cardinals Break 49ers' Streak

➤ Back in Week 5, the Cardinals broke a 49ers 4-game SU and ATS win streak over Arizona.

Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 3-14 straight up over the last three seasons against their own division, including 1-6 SU at home.

Lions' Opponent Struggles Continue

➤ The Lions beat the 49ers last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 6-9 SU and 4-11 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.2 PPG and 18-30 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.

49ers' NFC West Road Success

➤ The 49ers are 11-6 ATS on the road vs. NFC West since 2019. They haven’t lost consecutive games ATS on the road vs. NFC West since 2021. Purdy is 4-2 ATS in those games, and Shanahan is 14-9 ATS in his career.

Kyler Murray's Late-Season Woes

➤ In games played in November or later, Kyler Murray is now 13-29 (31%) straight up…

That includes a truly remarkable 1-17 SU mark in divisional games — he's lost 15 straight in Nov. on.

Kyler Murray's Home vs. Road Totals

➤ Kyler road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 26-13-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked third of 277 QBs since 2005 in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite: 24-18 to the over in his career.

49ers' Struggles Since Christmas 2023

➤ It was labeled the game of the year. The game had lots of expectations, and the 49ers lost 33-19 at home to the Ravens. It was Christmas of last year, Week 16. Including that game, SF is just 9-13 SU in their last 22 total games.

Over the last calendar year, the 49ers are 9-12 SU, with a $100 bettor down $889, the 3rd-worst mark on the moneyline in the NFL ahead of just the Jaguars and Bears.

49ers' Second-Half ATS Struggles

➤ The 49ers are 2-14 against the second half spread this season, and they are 3-17 2H ATS in their last 20 total games dating back to last year.

San Francisco is the worst team 2H ATS this year, failing to cover those 2Hs by 6 PPG. The worst 2H ATS mark for any season over the last 20 years came in 2014 when the Titans finished 2-14 2H ATS.

The biggest difference between the 49ers this year and last: In 2024, they are 3-13 against the 4Q spread, the worst mark in the NFL. In 2023, they were 14-5 4Q ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy Excels on Short Rest

➤ Brock Purdy has played well on short rest. He’s 6-3 SU/ATS in his career, including 4-1 ATS against a divisional opponent on short rest. His coach Kyle Shanahan is also 14-9-1 ATS in this spot and 7-4-1 ATS vs. NFC West.

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Sunday, Jan. 5
8:20pm ET on NBC
Sam Darnold vs. Jared Goff
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Incentives:
Zadarius Smith: 8 sacks
+ Needs 2 more sacks ($250K) (needs 10). Needs 4 more sacks (12) for $500K more.

Kerby Joseph: 9 INT
+ Needs 1 INT to tie Lem Barney with 10 INT, most by a lion since 1960
+ Currently holds NFL lead in INT by 2

Sam Darnold: 35 pass TD
+ Needs 4 to tie Daunte Culpepper’s MIN record of 39 in 2004

Jared Goff: 36 pass TD
+ Needs 5 to tie Matthew Stafford’s DET record of 41 in 2011

Jameson Williams: 967 receiving yds (33 away from 1,000)
Jordan Addison: 875 receiving yds (125 away from 1,000), 9 rec TD
Jahmyr Gibbs: 13 rush TD (2 back of James Cook for NFL lead)
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 109 receptions (8 back of Ja’Marr Chase league lead)


Favorites Dominate Primetime Games

➤ Favorites in primetime night games are 45-12 SU (79%) this season, including 5-0 SU from this same Lions team.

Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 9-0 SU as favorites in night games, winning by 9.2 PPG.

Sky-High Vikings-Lions Total

➤ The Vikings-Lions over/under in Week 18 increased 4+ points from 52.5 to 56.5 (even 57.5’s) after Monday Night Football. That would be the highest O/U in any game in over three years — Chiefs/Titans in 2021 at 59.

Since 2003, totals of 57 or more are 18-7 to the over.

Vikings’ Historic Overachievement

➤The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they are now 14-2.

They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total. Since realignment in 2002, only the 2004 Chargers and 2004 Steelers finished 7.5 games above their win total.

Battle for the NFC North Crown

➤ The Lions face Minnesota for the king of the NFC. Both Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have had success vs. divisional opponents in their careers.

Campbell: 16-6-1 ATS (best for any coach since he joined DET)
Goff: 29-17-2 ATS – including 16-6-1 ATS with Lions (best in NFL since he joined DET)

Goff's Dominance Over the Vikings

➤ In Goff’s career, he is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS vs. the Vikings – his second-most profitable opponent ATS.

When Goff has played the Vikings as QB of Detroit, he is 7-0 ATS, the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.

Dan Campbell on Short Rest

➤ Dan Campbell hasn’t been his absolute best as a head coach on short rest/prep. With the Dolphins and Lions, he is just 6-5 ATS, but just 3-8 SU, including just 2-4 SU at home.

Lions' First-Half ATS Success

➤ 49ers led the Lions 21-13 at the half last week. Detroit is now 38-14-1 (73%) against the first half spread over the last three seasons. Detroit has lost the 1H ATS in consecutive games once in their last 48 games.

Sam Darnold Joins Elite Company

➤ Sam Darnold has 35 pass TD this season. He had 27 pass TDs the previous 4 seasons combined with the 49ers, Panthers, and Jets.

Only 8 QBs have now been a top-5 pick, had 35+ pass TD, 4,000+ pass yds, and made the playoffs: Burrow, Stafford, Luck, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Steve Young, and Sam Darnold.


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NFL Betting Systems

System: Can Carolina keep it close? Teams after getting blown out, who are getting 4 pts or more are 61% ATS since 2003.

Matches: CAR

NFL Icon
$$$: Lose by 28 , Dog of 4
the spread is between 4 and 100
the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -28
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
the team's game number is between 2 and 100
$3,301
WON
117-76-3
RECORD
61%
WIN%

System: Home divisional teams have been overvalued historically. Last decade when game is played in November or later it's 46.2% on almost 600+ game sample size.

Matches: All home teams

NFL Icon
$$$: Fade Home Div Teams (YEAR)
the game was played during the 2024-25 or 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 season
the game is a Division game
the team is the Home team
the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season
$-8,365
WON
434-492-23
RECORD
47%
WIN%

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System: Another system that looks at fading teams who are fighting to get into the playoffs.

Matches: TEN, NYG, CAR, NO

NFL Icon
$$$: Fighting Teams vs. Bad, Week 16 on
the opposing team's win percentage is between 0% and 49%
the team's win percentage is between 50% and 59%
the week number or round is 16 or 17 or 18
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
$-2,725
WON
46-72-4
RECORD
39%
WIN%

System: Bet teams who are good on third down. Simple as that.

Matches: CIN, BAL, DET, WAS, KC, TB

NFL Icon
$: Bet Good Off 3D Teams, Nov On
the opposing teams percentage of third downs which are converted to a first down or touchdown is between 0 and 44.9
the game was played in December or November or January
the game is played during the Regular season
the team's percentage of third downs which are converted to a first down or touchdown is between 45 and 100
$4,783
WON
349-282-21
RECORD
55%
WIN%

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About the Author
Evan is the Director of Research for the Action Network. Born and raised in New York City, he solely roots for teams who cover. His fears: bullpens, quicksand and stoppage time.

Follow Evan Abrams @EvanHAbrams on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.