NFL Week 18 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Don't be sad because it's almost over, be happy because it happened. The NFL regular season has a week left before the playoffs!

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 18 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 8, 1 p.m. ET.

1. Must Win, Baby

Again, it's all about motivation in Week 18, just like Week 17.

+ Teams that need to win in the final week of the regular season to get into the playoffs — or need help with a loss — have gone 16-26 (38.1%) against the spread (ATS) when playing teams with zero incentive. If you're curious, 13 of those 42 teams lost straight up (SU) on the moneyline (via Stuckey).

• Seahawks vs. LAR
• Dolphins vs. NYJ
• Steelers vs. CLE
• Packers vs. DET (POSSIBLE)

+ If you focus solely on favorites laying more than a field goal, the case for fading these "must-win" teams becomes even more glaring at 10-22 (31.25%) ATS.

2. Records On The Line

• If the Broncos close as favorites and don't cover the spread vs. the Chargers, Russell Wilson will fall to 0-7 ATS as a favorite this year, matching the most ATS losses without a cover in a single season over the last 20 years (Carson Palmer, 2009).
• If the Buccaneers and Tom Brady don't cover the spread vs. the Falcons, Brady will fall to 4-12-1 ATS this year, which would make him the least profitable QB ATS in a single season over the last 20 years.

3. Show Me The Money

Week 18 brings on potential records, contract incentives and much more. Here is everything you need to know to bet props attached to incentives for Week 18.

Every NFL Game For Week 18 

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What's Next?	Wild Card Round Trends

Game-By-Game Breakdown

Chiefs at Raiders  Channel: ESPN/ABC | 4:30 p.m. ET (Sat.) Line: KC (-8.5) | O/U: 52

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+ Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards (5,048) by over 400 yards. He was +800 entering the season.

He was -103 at BetRivers to break the single-season record of 5,477 prior to Week 16. He needs 430 yards to break the record.

+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home:

• Home: 22-24-1 ATS
• Road/Neutral: 24-18-1 ATS

+ Mahomes' career against the spread:

• As favorite of 3.5 or more: 29-36-1 ATS
• As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS

+ Mahomes’ 15th start in January or later — he’s been favored in all 15: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS.

+ Patrick Mahomes is 15-0 SU on the road vs. AFC West, the second-longest road winning streak by a starting QB vs. his own division since the 1970 merger, trailing only Joe Montana’s 20-game streak (1984-93).

+ Chiefs are massive road favorites. If they close at 7 or more, the under is 118-84-2 (58.4%) over the last decade when the road team is favored by 7 or more. When the total is 45 or more in this spot, the under is 81-44-2 (64.8%).

+ Jerick McKinnon is the first running back since 1970 to record a touchdown reception in five consecutive games.

Most Rec TD by RB in SB Era

9 – Marshall Faulk (2001), Chuck Foreman (1975), Leroy Hoard (1971)

+ The Eagles, Chiefs and Bills currently have an 80%+ win percentage. In the last 20 years, teams with a 80%+ win percentage in December or later are 142-189-3 ATS (42.9%).

+ Chiefs are 7-2 to the under at home this season and 6-1 to the over on the road.

+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half in Week 13 and lost. In Week 15, they trailed the Texans 14-13 at half and won.

Kansas City has won six of its last seven games in which it trailed at halftime. The six straight wins was the longest streak by any NFL team (regular and postseason) since the 49ers won seven straight from 1989-90.

+ Mahomes is just 2-10 ATS this season after a SU win and 16-25 ATS after a win since 2020.

+ Chiefs (13-3) face the Raiders (6-10) in Week 18. Teams with an 80%+ win percentage facing a team below .500 SU in the final two weeks of the regular season are just 4-11 ATS since 2016.

+ Patrick Mahomes (-600) is the favorite to win MVP ahead of Joe Burrow (+700) and Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen (+1200).

Mahomes' MVP odds: Opened 8-1; 5-1 Week 4; 4-1 Week 8; 2-1 Week 10; +120 Week 14; -275 Week 16; -500 Week 17

+ Opposing QBs have gone over their completions prop vs. Raiders in 12 of their last 16 games dating back to last season (Rams and 49ers games had no completion prop).

+ Incentives:

Travis Kelce records: Needs 117 receiving yards to break own single-season record for a TE. Needs 13 receptions to pass Zach Ertz for most in a single season by a TE. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Needs 102 receiving yds for 1,000. He’s earned $2.5M in bonuses already. Needs two receiving yards for $2.5M -> $3M. $500K for AFC Championship win and $500K for Super Bowl win.

Carlos Dunlap: Needs two sacks + defensive statistical metrics to earn $1M bonus.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Needs 21 receptions for $500K.

Patrick Mahomes: Earns $1.25M if he wins MVP. Another $1.25M if he wins AFC Championship. Needs 186 pass + rush yards to break that record. Earns $1M if he plays 60% of snaps for season.

Frank Clark: Needs three sacks for $2.5M. 

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+ The Raiders have preferred home in Vegas this year. 5-2 ATS at home and 3-6 ATS on road. Raiders are 2-7 SU on the road this year and 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games overall.

+ Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and they've covered seven of their last 10 games as a home underdog.

+ Raiders are 0-4 this season when leading by double digits at halftime. They are the first team since at least 1930 to lose four times in a season when leading by double digits at half.

The Raiders are the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a season in which they led by 10 or more points in the second half.

+ Raiders are 6-0 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU this season, best record in the NFL.

Best ATS Record vs. Above .500 SU Teams — Single Season Last 20 Years

• 2022 Raiders 6-0 ATS
• 2018 Colts 5-0 ATS
• 2015 Saints 5-0-1 ATS
• 2014 Steelers 6-0 ATS
• 2013 Bengals 5-0 ATS
• 2012 Seahawks 6-0 ATS
• 2011 Ravens 5-0-1 ATS
• 2010 Colts 6-0-1 ATS
• 2003 Patriots 6-0-1 ATS

+ Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing (1,608). He leads by 160 yards over Nick Chubb and 179 over Derrick Henry. Jacobs was -165 to lead the league in rushing back in Week 14 and he was 40-1 in the preseason.

+ Overs are 16-7-1 (70%) at Allegiant Stadium, making the Raiders the second-most profitable home team to the over since they moved to Vegas in 2020 (behind Vikings).

+ Davante Adams has gone over his longest reception prop in seven of his last nine games.

+ Derek Carr is currently tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with 14. Carr, who's been benched, opened the season at 30-1 odds to lead the category.

+ The Chiefs' pass defense has allowed a pass TD in 18 consecutive games.

In that span, opposing QBs have thrown for two TD or more in 15 of the 18 games (Bryce Perkins … and Geno Smith and Russell Wilson over the last two weeks).

Fourteen of the 18 QBs went over their passing TD prop (Geno, Perkins, Burrow, Russ)

Titans at Jaguars  Channel: ESPN/ABC | 8:15 p.m. ET Line: JAC (-6.5) | O/U: 39.5

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+ Titans have lost six games in a row SU (0-5-1 ATS). 

• First six-game SU losing streak under head coach Mike Vrabel (Tennessee hadn’t lost four straight under Vrabel entering last week.)
• Titans haven’t lost six straight games SU in the same season since 2015.

+ Titans have now gone six straight games without covering the spread (0-5-1 ATS). Under Vrabel, the Titans have never even gone five straight games without a cover.

+ Titans are 3-12-1 against the second half spread this season, the least profitable team against the second half spread in the NFL.

+ Titans went under their preseason win total (9) with a loss vs. Cowboys in Week 17. They officially went under their win total for the first time since 2015 (5-0-1 to the over since '15 for Titans).

+ Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games in the second half of the season — Game 8 or later — are 111-73-5 (60.3%) against the first half spread.

+ How does Vrabel do based on rest? He’s 9-2 ATS on 9+ days of rest, which is Tennessee’s current spot vs. Jacksonville. Overall, teams are 20-28-1 ATS on extended rest in games 16-17 of the regular season over the last 20 years.

Vrabel ATS based on days of rest:

• 8+: 10-6 ATS
• 7: 24-24-2 ATS
• 6-: 8-7 ATS

+ The Titans rely on Derrick Henry on the road. He has a TD in 22 of his last 27 road games dating back to November 2019, including 11 of his last 13 road games (19 total TDs).

+ Teams after facing the Cowboys this season are 11-4 ATS in their next game, covering the spread in seven of the last nine games.

+ The under has cashed in 10 of the last 13 Titans games.

+ Titans are 11-5 against the first half spread, tied for the second-best 1H ATS win percentage in the NFL.

+ Malik Willis vs. Ryan Tannehill vs. Josh Dobbs this season:

• Dobbs: 0-1 SU/ATS; 32.3 QBR; -13.2% DVOA; 53rd of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Willis: 1-1 SU/ATS; 12.2 QBR; -69.3% DVOA; 63rd of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Tannehill: 6-6 SU; 6-5-1 ATS; 49.7 QBR; +3.7% DVOA; 22nd of 64 QBs EPA/play

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+ The Jaguars have won four consecutive games for the first time since November 2017.

+ As a favorite or an underdog of fewer than 2.5 points, Trevor Lawrence is 1-8 SU/ATS.

+ Lawrence has started two games at night, both on Thursday Night Football.

• at Bengals (2021) as 7.5-point underdogs: Lost 24-21.
• at Jets (2022) as 2.5-point underdogs: Won 19-3.

+ Jaguars are 5-22 SU when allowing 14 pts or more with Lawrence (4-7 this season, including 3-1 in their last four games in the spot).

+ Jaguars have allowed just three points in consecutive games. They are the 15th team over the last 20 years to hold consecutive opponents to three points or less. Those teams are 4-9-1 ATS in their next game.

+ The Jaguars are 9-15 ATS in their last 24 games.

+ Games at night are 34-19 to the under so far this season, including eight straight unders. The under is 14-2 in night games since Dec. 1.

+ Bill Vinovich is the lead official for Titans vs. Jaguars. The under is 88-62-1 (58.7%) over the last decade, the most profitable official to the under in that span. He’s been .500 or better to the under every year since 2015.

+ Jaguars are 5-2 to the under at home and 6-3 to the over on the road this season.

+ Jaguars after a SU win with Lawrence: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS.

• Since 2018, Jaguars are 9-11 ATS after a SU win.
• When on at least a two-game winning streak over the last 20 years, the Jaguars are 17-28-1 ATS in their next game.

+ Incentives:

Evan Engram: Needs 11 receptions or 61 receiving yards to jump bonus from $600K to $800K.

Zay Jones: Needs two receptions for $250K and 98 receiving yards for $500K.

Christian Kirk: Two receptions = $500K, 12 receptions = $500K, 22 receptions = $500K

91 receiving yards = $500K, 191 yards = $500K, 291 yards == $500K

Dawuane Smoot: Needs one sack for $250K, three sacks for $500K and five sacks for $1M.

Jets at Dolphins  Channel: FOX | 1 p.m. ET Line: MIA (-3.5) | O/U: 37.5

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• Joe Flacco gets the start vs. Dolphins this week. He is 7-2 SU and ATS vs. Dolphins in his career, 0-2 SU/ATS with the Jets and 7-0 SU/ATS with the Ravens.

+ Teams traveling on the road from PST to EST are 25-33-1 ATS since 2010.

+ Sauce Gardner was the (-1200) favorite to win Defensive ROY entering Week 17 (opened at +1200). Odds are currently off the board.

+ Garrett Wilson is the second betting favorite (+160) to win Offensive ROY (opened at +2000). Wilson was the -200 favorite last week, but he was jumped by Kenneth Walker.

Teams to have both DROY and OROY in the same season in Super Bowl era:

• 2017 Saints: Marshon Lattimore, Alvin Kamara
• 1967 Lions: Mel Farr, Lem Barney

+ Teams to score 14 pts or less in consecutive games in the second half of the season — Game 8 or later — are 111-73-5 (60.3%) against the first half spread.

+ The Jets were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Seahawks in Week 17. Their 12-year playoff drought is the longest in the NFL.

+ Disadvantage traveling to Seattle? Teams the week after a road game in Seattle are 28-17-1 ATS since 2017, including 13-2 ATS over the last two seasons (most profitable previous road city in that span).

+ Jets scored just six points against the Seahawks last week. Teams to score six pts or less are 12-4 1H ATS this season in their next game and 108-75-7 1H ATS (59%) since 2014.

+ Jets have scored six points vs. Seahawks and three points vs. Jaguars in their last two games.

Teams to score six points or less in consecutive games are 22-11-1 ATS over the last 20 years.

+ Incentives:

Carl Lawson: Needs one sack for $600K and three sacks for $800K.

Greg Zuerlein (currently has a 82.4 FG%): Needs 85% for $250K, 87.5% for $500K and 90% for $750K.

+ Zach Wilson vs Mike White this season

• Wilson: 5-4 SU/ATS; 37.2 QBR; -15.3% DVOA; 46th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• White: 2-5 SU; 3-4 ATS; 37.5 QBR; -4.7 DVOA; 36th of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Over the last 20 years, no Jets coach is above .500 ATS.

• Eric Mangini: 24-24-1
• Rex Ryan: 50-50-2
• Herman Edwards: 21-25-4
• Todd Bowles: 28-32-4
• Robert Saleh: 14-19
• Adam Gase: 13-19

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+ Dolphins can push the over on their preseason win total (9) with a win.

+ Dolphins SU winning and losing streaks this season:

• Games 1-3: Won 3 straight
• Games 4-6: Lost 3 straight
• Games 7-11: Won 5 straight
• Games 12-16: Lost 5 straight

+ Dolphins homefield advantage: 35-20 SU, 33-19-3 ATS since 2016 — the best ATS team in the NFL. The biggest impact? In November or later since 2016, Miami is 23-8 SU and 22-7-2 ATS at home.

+ Dolphins are 50-1 to win it all, their highest odds of the season thus far.

+ Dolphins are 6-1 to the under at home this season and 7-2 to the over on the road.

+ Dolphins have beaten the Jets in Miami six consecutive games (4-1-1 ATS). New York's last win in Miami came in December 2014 with Geno Smith at quarterback.

+ Teams after facing Patriots in New England:

• 2021-22: 8-6-1 ATS
• 2018-20: 7-15 ATS

+ The over/under result at home in Dolphins games over the last 20 years is all about the wind:

• Less than 10 MPH: 50-30-2 (63%) to the over
• 10 MPH or more: 48-31 (61%) to the under

+ Tua Tagovailoa vs. Teddy Bridgewater vs. Skyler Thompson this season

• Tagovailoa: 8-5 SU; 7-6 ATS; 68.6 QBR; +28.5% DVOA; 2nd of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Bridgewater: 0-2 SU; 1-1 ATS; 48.3 QBR; -2.7 DVOA; 30th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Thompson: 0-1 SU/ATS; 35.1 QBR; -22.2% DVOA; 59th of 64 QBs EPA/play

Browns at Steelers  Channel: CBS | 1 p.m. ET Line: PIT (-2.5) | O/U: 40.5

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+ Deshaun Watson’s sixth start for the Browns.

• 32-29 SU and 29-30-2 ATS in career
• Watson is 15-8 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 9-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU
• Watson is only 11-17-2 (39%) ATS as a favorite since 2018

+ The Browns beat the Commanders in Week 17. Cleveland is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS under Kevin Stefanski in its last 10 games after a SU win.

+ Browns are 9-8 SU, 5-12 ATS vs. the AFC North under Stefanski.

+ In the last 20 years, Stefanski is the sixth-least profitable coach ATS vs. his own division (136th of 141 coaches) and second-worst since his coaching debut in 2020 (Andy Reid, 5-12 ATS).

+ Entering 2022, the Browns were 2-5 ATS vs. teams scoring under 20 PPG. In 2022, they are 4-1 ATS, winning four in a row entering Week 18.

+ Deshaun Watson vs. Jacoby Brissett this season:

• Watson: 3-2 SU/ATS; 36.7 QBR; -13.9% DVOA; 43rd of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Brissett: 4-7 SU; 5-5-1 ATS; 59.9 QBR; +12.6% DVOA; 14th of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Browns under Brissett: 4-7 SU and 5-5-1 ATS (7-4 to the over)

+ In 11 games with Brissett, the Browns produced the league's No. 5 offense (EPA per drive), behind only the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles. Defense (28th in EPA/drive) and bad luck in one-score games are more to blame for 4-7 SU record.

+ Browns go under their preseason win total (8) with a loss. The under is 12-3 on the Browns preseason win total over the last 15 years.

+ Stefanski with Browns:

• Favorite: 19-9 SU; 10-18 ATS
• Dog: 7-15 SU; 12-9-1 ATS

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+ A Steelers win would give Mike Tomlin his 16th consecutive winning season since becoming head coach in 2007.

Most Consecutive Seasons for Coach – .500 or Better:

• Tom Landry – 21
• Bill Belichick – 19
• George Halas – 16
• Mike Tomlin – 15

+ Kenny Pickett has faced four teams below .500 SU and the Steelers are 4-0 SU and ATS this season.

+ The Steelers are currently on a three-game SU and ATS winning streak.

Steelers haven’t covered three consecutive games since covering five straight in October 2020.

+ Steelers have allowed fewer than 20 points in six consecutive games entering Week 18. That is Pittsburgh’s longest such streak in a single season since 2004.

Since 2014, teams who play after allowing under 20 points in five consecutive games are 23-15 to the over in their next game, including 15-4 when the game is at home.

+ Steelers went over their preseason win total (7.5) with win vs. Ravens last week. Steelers have now gone over their win total in three straight seasons for the first time since 2014-17.

+ Najee Harris needs 46 rushing yards to get to 1,000.

+ With T.J. Watt in action (since drafting him in 2017), the Steelers are 58-26-2 SU. Without Watt, they’re 1-10 SU.

+ Mitch Trubisky vs. Kenny Pickett this season:

• Trubisky: 2-3 SU; 2-2-1 ATS; 56.6 QBR; +3% DVOA; 24th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Pickett: 6-5 SU; 7-4 ATS; 49.9 QBR; -11.6% DVOA; 33rd of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Teams after facing the Ravens this season are 10-4-1 ATS in their next game.

Texans at Colts  Channel: CBS | 1 p.m. ET Line: IND (-3) | O/U: 37.5

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+ Texans are 10-38-1 SU since the start of the 2020 season.

+ Davis Mills is 15-10 against the first half spread in his career.

+ Week 18 marks Davis Mills’ 26th career start — all 26 have been as an underdog (13-12 ATS). Overall, Mills is 4-20-1 SU.

+ Texans are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.

+ The under has cashed in six consecutive Texans-Colts matchups, including 11 of their last 13 meetings.

+ Jerome Boger is the lead official in this game. In divisional games with Boger as the lead official, the home team is 46-30-3 ATS (61%) since 2008, including 2-1 ATS this season.

+ Texans scored just three points against the Jaguars last week. Teams to score 6 points or less are 12-4 1H ATS this season in their next game and 108-75-7 1H ATS (59%) since 2014.

+ Both the Texans and Colts allow 24+ PPG this season. Over the last two seasons, the under is 45-27 (63%) when both teams allow 24+ PPG.

+ Teams that play in a dome with a total under 40 see the over go 57-37-1 (61%) over the last 20 years, including 4-1 to the over this season.

+ Mills ATS based on days of rest.

• Less than 7 days: 2-1 ATS
• 7 days: 10-7 ATS
• More than 7 days: 0-3 ATS

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+ Sam Ehlinger is 0-2 SU and ATS as a starter, with the Colts averaging 9.5 PPG.

In the Wild Card era, Ehlinger is the fourth QB from the University of Texas to be drafted and start in the NFL (Vince Young, Colt McCoy, Chris Simms).

+ Colts are 3-13 against the first half spread this season and 3-15 in their last 18 first halves ATS dating back to last year.

In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-7 2H ATS.

+ The Colts have lost six games in a row SU entering this week, their longest losing streak since December 2017. Indy hasn't lost seven straight since its 14-game losing streak in 2011 (the Colts' only other 7+ game losing streak since 1997).

The Colts are only the 18th team in the last 20 years to have a superior win percentage than their opponent, but also be on a 6+ game SU losing streak — those teams are 6-11 ATS in their next game.

+ Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games in the second half of the season — Game 8 or later — are 111-73-5 (60.3%) against the first half spread.

+ Colts have scored 24 total TDs this season (fewest in the NFL)

+ Colts are 10-6 to the under this season – Colts have gone under in 15 of last 21 games.

+ In the first half, the under is 11-5 in the Colts' 16 games this season, which is the fourth-best 1H under win percentage this season behind the Bucs.

+ Colts are 7-9 on a six-point teaser this season, the worst record of any team in the NFL.

+ Michael Pittman Jr. needs 105 receiving yards to get to 1,000.

+ Nick Foles vs. Matt Ryan vs. Sam Ehlinger

• Foles: 0-2 SU/ATS; 7.4 QBR; -102.2% DVOA; 64th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Ryan: 4-7 SU; 6-6 ATS; 43.4 QBR; -22.9% DVOA; 40th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Ehlinger: 0-2 SU/ATS; 34.1 QBR; -42.5% DVOA; 55th of 64 QBs EPA/play

Buccaneers at Falcons  Channel: FOX | 1 p.m. ET Line: ATL (-4) | O/U: 40.5

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+ Tom Brady is 26-28-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 4-11-1 ATS this season.

Worst Brady ATS Seasons

• 2022: 4-11-1 ATS
• 2002: 6-10 ATS
• 2015: 7-7-2 ATS
• 2013: 8-8 ATS
• 2005: 8-8 ATS

+ Brady is 4-11-1 ATS this season. A $100 bettor would be down $746.

Least Profitable QB ATS Single Season Last 20 Years

• 2007 Marc Bulger: 2-10 ATS (-$838)
• 2008 David Garrard: 4-12 ATS (-$827)
• 2019 Mitch Trubisky: 3-11-1 ATS (-$813)

+ Brady and the Buccaneers are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games.

​​+ Bucs road unders are 6-1 this season, going under the total by 10 PPG. One of the main reasons? Bucs points: 7, 17, 3, 18, 20, 19, 19.

+ Brady has lost five straight road games ATS, which is the first time he’s done that in his career.

+ If Brady throws for 390 yards in Week 18, he will reach 5,000.

• Would be third time in his career with 5,000 yards (2011, 2021)
• Most seasons w/ 5,000 yards: Drew Brees 5, Brady 2, Mahomes 2

+ Brady has 131 career games with at least 300 passing yards, including the postseason. That's tied with Brees for the most in NFL history.

+ Brady has 477 completions this year (second-most in a single season all-time). Most? Brady last year with 485.

+ Tom Brady vs. Falcons: 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS.

Best QB Record SU vs. Single Opp.

• Otto Graham vs. Cardinals: 12-0
• Tom Brady vs. Falcons: 11-0
• John Elway vs. Patriots: 11-0
• Andrew Luck vs. Titans: 11-0

+ Buccaneers are 4-11-1 ATS (26.7%) this season. Only one other team since 1990 has made the playoffs with fewer than 5 ATS wins: 1999 Vikings 3-10-3 ATS (23.1%) – Lost, Divisional Round

+ Fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year? Bucs with 1,222 yards. Second-fewest are the Texans with 1,417.

+ Bucs team total unders are 13-3 this season.

+ Buccaneers are failing to cover the spread by 5.7 PPG this season, the second-worst ATS margin in the NFL (Colts, -6.8).

+ In the first half, the under is 13-3 in the Buccaneers' 16 games this season. It's the best 1H under win percentage this season.

+ In Brady’s last 18 starts for the Bucs, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 11 of 18 games. Under 2.5 in 15 of 18 games.

• 0: 1
• 1: 10
• 2: 4
• 3+: 3

+ Incentives:

Chris Godwin: Needs 9 receptions to break Bucs record (Keyshawn Johnson in 2001).

Tom Brady: Needs 12 pass attempts to pass Matthew Stafford for single-season record.

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+ Desmond Ridder makes his fourth career start this week against the Bucs. Rookie QBs are 14-11 SU, 16-9 ATS entering Week 18.

+ Rookie Desmond Ridder faces off against veteran Tom Brady.

• Rookie QBs are 7-24 SU vs. Brady in his career.
• The seven rookies to lead their team to victory over a Brady-led team include Brock Purdy (2022), Kenny Pickett ('22), Geno Smith ('13), Russell Wilson ('12), Colt McCoy ('10), Mark Sanchez ('09) and Ben Roethlisberger ('04).
• Pickett snapped Tom Brady’s 12-game SU winning streak when starting against a rookie QB. The last rookie to beat Brady was Geno Smith in Week 7 of 2013 prior to that.

+ After starting 6-0 ATS, the Falcons are just 2-8 ATS since.

+ How 6-0 ATS teams in the last decade perform after a hot start:

• 2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 2-8 ATS
• 2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
• 2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS

+ Falcons have performed much better at home.

Home: 5-2 SU in last seven games. Both losses by three points. 

Road: Six-game SU losing streak (1-9 SU last 10). The Falcons have gone under their team total in their last six road games (less than 20 pts in all six).

+ The Falcons offense has been struggling lately.

Atlanta has scored 20 points or fewer in five consecutive games for the first time since 2018 and second time since '07.

+ The under has cashed in seven of the last eight Falcons games, including 10-3 in their last 13 games overall.

+ Desmond Ridder vs. Marcus Mariota this season:

• Ridder: 1-2 SU/ATS; 40.6 QBR; -1.2% DVOA; 45th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Mariota: 5-8 SU; 7-6 ATS; 55.6 QBR; 4.4% DVOA; 21st of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Tyler Allgeier needs 100 rushing yards to get to the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie.

Panthers at Saints  Channel: FOX | 1 p.m. ET Line: NO (-3.5) | O/U: 41.5

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+ Since Darnold’s first start in 2018, he's ranked 111th of 114 QBs against the spread: 21-32-1.

Darnold in his career as a starter: 4-3 ATS in a dome; 17-29-1 ATS outdoors.

+ This will be Darnold’s second career start vs. Saints. He lost 18-10 in New Orleans last season as a 6.5-point underdog.

+ Panthers can go over their preseason win total (6.5) with a win.

+ Panthers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 road games, including 11-28 SU on the road since 2018 — the third-least profitable team on the road SU (ahead of Lions and Jaguars).

+ Panthers are 6-17 SU and 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games.

+ Panthers and Saints are both below .500 SU facing off in Week 18. Over the last two weeks of the regular season, when two under .500 SU teams play, the home team is 50-26 ATS in the last 20 years.

+ Darnold has thrown just one interception in his last five starts since returning from injury. It's his best five-game stretch in terms of interceptions.

+ DJ Moore receiving yards over the last three weeks with Darnold: 73, 83, 117

+ Panthers SU record by sack total on Darnold.

• 2 or fewer: 6-3 SU
• 3 or more: 1-7 SU

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+ Andy Dalton is 3-0 SU as a favorite this season and 3-7 SU as an underdog.

QBs Undefeated SU as a Favorite This Season

• Kirk Cousins: 11-0
• Brock Purdy: 4-0
• Andy Dalton: 3-0

+ When the Panthers visit the Superdome, expect fireworks. The over is 8-1 in New Orleans when the Panthers visit.

+ Dalton's career based off rest leading up to the game.

• Short rest (6 days or less): 10-14-1 ATS
• Normal rest (7 days): 54-42-4 ATS
• Extended rest (8 days or more): 13-16 ATS

+ The under is 8-1 in the Saints' last nine games. New Orleans opened the season 5-2 to the over.

+ With both the Saints and Bears, Dalton is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) as a home favorite.

+ New Orleans' defense has been stellar lately, allowing less than 20 points in five straight games — 1 of 3 teams entering Week 18 on such a streak (Steelers and Ravens).

• Saints are third team this season to allow less than 20 points in five straight games while being under .500 SU by the end of the streak (Steelers/Broncos). In the previous 19 seasons, that has only happened eight times.
• Ironically enough, the Saints have had this type of five-game streak five times prior over the last 20 years. They are 0-5 ATS in their next game.

+ Incentives:

Demario Davis: Needs two fumble recoveries for $250K.

Andy Dalton: Will earn $1M for playing time (50% snaps, 60% snaps).

Patriots at Bills  Channel: CBS | 1 p.m. ET Line: BUF (-8.5) | O/U: 43.5

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+ Patriots have closed as a TD underdog (7 points) six times over the last 20 years. They are 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS. Four of those six games have occurred since 2020.

+ How Patriots have performed by time window since 2018:

• 1 p.m. ET: 25-16-1 ATS
• 4 p.m. ET: 6-9-1 ATS
• Night: 11-15 ATS

+ Clay Martin is the lead official for this contest. His games usually lean to the under (42-33) and road teams (43-32 ATS).

+ Mac Jones: 16-15 SU and 14-16-1 ATS in his career. He's 7-11 SU and 5-12-1 ATS in his last 18 starts.

At 4-8-1 ATS, he’s the fourth-least profitable QB ATS this season (with Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields).

+ Patriots have lost three consecutive games SU and ATS vs. Bills. It's the first time they’ve done that since 1974-75 (they have never lost four straight SU/ATS vs. Bills).

+ Bill Belichick career with Patriots ATS:

• With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
• W/o Tom Brady: 43-43-1 ATS

+ The Patriots are averaging 2.4 points in the first quarter this season, tied for 30th in the NFL.

+ Matthew Judon (15.5) is two sacks behind Nick Bosa (17.5) for the lead. Judon was 25-1 to lead the category in the preseason.

+ The Patriots are 2-6 ATS as underdogs this season, which is the least profitable single-season ATS record as underdogs for Belichick with New England.

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+ Since Week 14, the Bills have been favorites to win the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs.

+ Bills have been favored in all 17 games this season. They are the eighth team in the last 20 years to be favored in every regular season game.

• 2022 Bills: 6-8-1 ATS
• 2021 Chiefs: 8-9 ATS
• 2021 Bucs: 9-8 ATS
• 2019 Patriots: 8-7-1 ATS
• 2018 Patriots: 9-7 ATS
• 2018 Rams: 7-8-1 ATS
• 2017 Patriots: 11-5 ATS
• 2007 Patriots: 10-6 ATS

+ Patriots are allowing 19.5 PPG this season. Josh Allen vs. defenses allowing under 21 PPG: 14-6-1 ATS

Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.

• Vs. teams allowing 24 PPG or more: 16-16-4 ATS
• Vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG: 14-4-1 ATS

+ Allen has 13 interceptions, one fewer than the current leaders with 14 (Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Dak Prescott).

• Opening odds: Cousins 40-1, Carr 30-1, Dak 50-1
• Allen was 25-1 to lead in interceptions before the season.

+ Bills can go over their preseason win total (12) with a win.

+ The under is 9-4 in the Bills' last 13 games (went over two weeks ago vs. Bears)

+ The Eagles, Chiefs and Bills currently have an 80%+ win percentage. In the last 20 years, teams with 80%+ win pct in December or later are 142-189-3 ATS (42.9%).

+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills in the second half. With Allen, the Bills are 49-29-3 against the second half spread.

Allen is 9-1 2H ATS in December and 0-3 2H ATS in January in his career.

+ Bills are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games.

+ Incentives:

Isaiah McKenzie: Needs 10 receptions for $100K, 20 for $200K; 46 receiving yards for $100K, 146 yards for $200K, 196 yards for $300K.

Jordan Poyer: Needs two interceptions for $750K, a pick-6 for $250K and a fumble recovery for $250K.

Taron Johnson: Needs two interceptions for $300K.

Tim Settle: Needs two sacks for $250K. 

Ravens at Bengals  Channel: CBS | 1:00 p.m. ET Line: CIN (-9.5) | O/U: 39.5

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+ How much scoring does Lamar Jackson add to the Ravens? Here are Baltimore’s average over/unders with and without Lamar starting since 2018.

• With: 46.5
• Without: 42.4

+ Tyler Huntley vs. Lamar Jackson

• Huntley: 2-2 SU/ATS; 42.3 QBR; -13.5% DVOA; 39th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Jackson: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS; 59.7 QBR; 5% DVOA; 16th of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have excelled vs. good teams overall, but when it comes to good teams in the AFC North, not so much.

Harbaugh vs. Above .500 SU Teams

• Vs. AFC North: 16-21-3 ATS
• All other divisions: 51-30-2 ATS

+ Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start – Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco and Huntley. Those QBs are 8-12 SU/ATS.

+ The Ravens have scored 20 points or fewer in five consecutive games for the first time since 2013.

+ Between 2016 and 2021, Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 7-8-1 against the first half spread.

+ Ravens can go over their preseason win total (10.5) with a win.

+ Ravens since 2017:

• Home: 22-29 ATS (2-6 ATS this season)
• Road: 30-18-1 ATS (5-3 ATS this season)

+ Jackson: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road

Jacksonr: 22-30 ATS as favorite | 10-2 ATS as underdog

+ Demarcus Robinson caught a TD vs. the Falcons in Week 16. Prior to that, a Ravens WR hadn't caught a TD since Week 3 (Devin Duvernay) and hadn't scored a TD since Week 8 (Duvernay).

+ Incentives:

Justin Houston: Earned $1M already. Needs one sack for an extra $500K.

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+ Bengals are +750 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.

+ Burrow career: 26-18-1 SU, 31-14 ATS (+$1,446). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.

+ Burrow is 19-3 ATS in his last 22 starts.

+ Bengals are 12-3 ATS (80%) this season. No team in the Wild Card era has finished with 14 ATS wins in the regular season.

Best ATS Win Pct Single Season – Since 1990

• 2004 Chargers: 13-1-2 ATS (92.9%)
• 2003 Patriots: 13-2-1 ATS (86.7%)
• 2015 Vikings: 13-3 ATS (81.2%)
• 1999 Rams: 13-3 ATS (81.2%)
• 1991 Cowboys: 13-3 ATS (81.2%)

+ Bengals are 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons, including the playoffs (26-10 ATS).

+ Bengals have won and covered seven straight games.

• Last time Bengals won and covered six straight? To start the 1988 season (6-0 SU/ATS), which ended in a loss in the Super Bowl vs. the 49ers.
• Last time they won and covered seven straight? All the way back in 1970 (won and covered seven straight at the end of the season).

+ Burrow is 21-6 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or above. In the last 20 years, he’s the sixth-most profitable QB ATS vs. .500 teams or above of 252 QBs (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Burrow).

+ In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 31-13-1 (71%) against the second half spread, including 12-3 this season and 27-7-1 (79%) over the last two seasons.

+ Burrow has excelled in cold temperatures:

• 50 degrees or less: 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS
• 40 degrees or less: 5-0 SU/ATS

+ Incentives:

Samaje Perine: Needs 124 rush yards for $100K.

Hayden Hurst: Needs 12 receptions for $250K and 100 receiving yards for $125K. 

Vikings at Bears  Channel: FOX | 1:00 p.m. ET Line: MIN (-7) | O/U: 42.5

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+ The Vikings are 12-4 with a -19 point differential.

11-0 SU in one-score games

+ Cousins with Minnesota: 38-41-2 ATS compared to 30-28 ATS with Washington.

• 1 p.m. ET or earlier: 47-37-2 ATS
• 4 p.m. ET or later: 21-32 ATS

+ Teams off a road game in Lambeau Field are 91-66-3 ATS (58%) in their next game, covering seven of their last nine games.

+ The Vikings have not been able to take advantage of bad offenses this season for bettors. They are 4-0 SU and 0-3-1 ATS vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG. The Vikings were 4-1 ATS in that spot from 2020-21.

+ In his career, Cousins is 36-23 ATS after a SU loss.

Most Profitable QB ATS off a Loss – Last 20 Years

1. Tom Brady: 45-26-1
2. Drew Brees: 59-39-2
3. Aaron Rodgers: 45-26-1
4. Andrew Luck: 25-9
5. Russell Wilson: 35-21-4
6. Kirk Cousins: 36-23

+ Both the Vikings and Bears allow 24+ PPG this season. Over the last two seasons, the under is 45-27 (63%) when both teams allow that many points.

+ With their victory over the Giants in Week 15, the Vikings have won 14 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.

Vikings' last loss as a favorite? Dec. 5, 2021, vs. Lions.

+ Vikings (12-4) are a small favorite over the Bears (3-13).

Teams with a 65%+ win pct vs. teams with a 25% win pct or less since 2016: 72-104-3 ATS. Since 2020, those teams are 31-57-2 ATS (35%).

+ Justin Jefferson (1,771 receiving yds) is 194 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson’s record for the most in a single season (1,964; 2012).

If he can get 229 in his final game, Jefferson would get to 2,000 receiving yards.

+ Vikings are one of five teams whose games have gone over the total more than under this season (Eagles, Bears, Lions, Cowboys).

+ Incentives:

Zadarius Smith: Needs 0.5 sacks for $750K and 2.5 sacks for $1M.

Kirk Cousins: 75% or more of the offensive snaps in the regular season — he's at 99% — and the Vikings win the Super Bowl, he'll earn $1M. He'd get an additional $1M if he's the Super Bowl MVP.

Cousins: Needs one game-winning drive to break Matthew Stafford's record. 

Needs one fourth-quarter comeback to break Stafford's record.

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+ Bears are 5-11 against the 1st half spread this season.

+ Bears games are 9-3 to the over in their last 12. Bears are 10-6 to the over this season, tied for second-best in the NFL.

+ Bears have lost nine consecutive games SU. This losing streak is their longest in franchise history (founded in 1920).

+ Bears have lost eight consecutive games SU vs. the NFC North. Since 2014, the Bears are 17-36 SU vs. the NFC North (-$1,772), the third-least profitable team vs. their own division (ahead of Chargers and Jets).

+ Justin Fields is 64 rushing yards shy of the single-season record for a QB, but will sit out this game.

+ Most QB rushing yards in single season:

1. Lamar Jackson (2019): 1,206
2. Justin Fields (2022): 1,143
3. Michael Vick (2006): 1,039

+ Nathan Peterman has started four games in his career. He is 1-3 SU and ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog, failing to cover the spread by 27 PPG.

+ Teams to score 14 points or less in consecutive games in the second half of the season — Game 8 or later — are 111-73-5 (60.3%) against the first half spread.

+ Over the last two seasons, the Bears are 4-23 SU as underdogs, the least profitable team on the ML as dogs in the NFL (-$1,300).

Since 2020, the Bears are 3-14 SU as home underdogs.

+ Most sacks taken this season: 1. Fields (55), 2. Russell Wilson (53)

In NFL history, 22 QBs have been sacked 55+ times in a season. 55 sacks is the most by a Bears QB since the NFL merger in 1970.

+ Bears are one of five teams whose games have gone over the total more than under this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL).

+ Bears kicker Cairo Santos incentives:

87.5% FG pct: $375K

90% FG pct: $750K

Rams at Seahawks  Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET Line: SEA (-5.5) | O/U: 41.5

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+ Baker Mayfield is 28-41-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, 270 QBs have started a game and Mayfield is 265th ATS.

• Mayfield covered the spread in Week 16 vs. Broncos, then lost to the Chargers. He has gone 19 starts since covering the spread in consecutive games.
• Mayfield faces an opponent coming off a SU win in the Seahawks, who need this win and some help to get into the playoffs. he is 12-26-1 ATS in his career facing an opponent off a SU win. Of 249 qualified QBs in the last 20 years, Mayfield is ranked 247th.

+ Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 games dating back to last season.

+ Rams lost by 20+ points in Week 17 to the Chargers. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ points and then face a team who didn’t are 71-48-1 ATS (59.7%) in their next game, including 57-30-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.

+ Rams are 5-11 SU this season. A $100 bettor would be down $642 betting on L.A., the 28th-ranked team on the moneyline this season.

+ Rams were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 against the Packers. Los Angeles was +200 to miss the playoffs in the preseason.

+ The Rams lost to the Chargers in Week 16 for their 11th loss of the year, breaking their tie with the 1999 Broncos for the most losses by a defending Super Bowl champion.

• Tyler Higbee: Needs 13 receiving yards to raise bonus from $375K to $500K.

+ Matthew Stafford vs. Baker Mayfield vs. John Wolford vs. Bryce Perkins this season

• Stafford: 3-6 SU; 2-6-1 ATS; 50.2 QBR; -8.5% DVOA; 41st of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Mayfield: 2-7 SU; 3-6 ATS; 27 QBR; -19.2% DVOA; 47th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Wolford: 1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS; 22.7 QBR; -34.2% DVOA; 54th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Perkins: 0-1 SU; 1-0 ATS; 27.7 QBR; -87% DVOA; 60th of 64 QBs EPA/play

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+ Seahawks were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, the third-worst odds for any team (Falcons and Texans).

+ Geno is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in his last seven starts, but his performance hasn’t been awful.

14 pass TD vs. 5 INT. Five of seven games above 50 QBR. Seahawks were sixth in pass DVOA in the first nine weeks but are 21st since Week 10.

+ Entering the Week 15 game vs. the 49ers, Geno was -700 to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (he was -900 entering Week 14).

• Entering Week 16, he was down to +115, with Christian McCaffrey (+175) and Jared Goff (+225) coming up strong.
• In Week 17 now: Saquon Barkley (+175), Geno (+175), CMC (+250)
• In Week 17 now: CMC (+175), Geno (+175), Saquon (+225)

+ Pete Carroll is 10-16 ATS (-$636) vs. Rams, his least profitable opponent ATS. 

Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. Rams, losing four straight ATS.

Overall though, the Rams have struggled in Seattle. The L.A. Rams are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games when playing in Seattle.

+ Seahawks-Rams and Eagles-Giants could be the 8th and 9th games in the last 20 years where the lookahead line moved at least 12 points to the closing line. Follow the line movement and those teams are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS.

+ Incentives:

Kenneth Walker: Needs 64 rush yards for 1,000.

Geno Smith: Already earned $2M in incentives. Can add $2M more if Seahawks make playoffs.

He’s on a one-year deal with a $1.26 million base salary, $500K signing bonus and $1.105M in per-game bonuses ($35K per game while he's on the 53-man roster and $30,000 for every game he's active).

Quinton Jefferson: 1.5 sacks last week netted $250K. Needs 1.5 more for another $250K.

Giants at Eagles  Channel: CBS | 4:25 p.m. ET Line: PHI (-16.5) | O/U: 42.5

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+ The under is 33-15-1 (69%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.

+ Giants are 12-4 ATS this season — their best ATS start through 16 games since starting 12-4 ATS in 2008.

+ Giants are 6-4-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season. They were 6-10 ATS as underdogs last season (N.Y. is the most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs).

Best ATS Season as Underdogs

• 2012 Rams: 11-3 ATS (+$756)
• 2006 Saints: 9-2 ATS (+$704)
• 2006 Titans: 10-3 ATS (+$675)
• 2004 Chargers: 8-1-1 ATS (+$641)
• 2022 Giants: 9-2 ATS (+$627)
• 2016 Saints: 7-1-1 ATS (+$577)
• 2021 Cardinals: 6-0 ATS (+$565)
• 2014 Browns: 7-1-1 ATS (+$559)
• 2009 Cardinals: 6-0 ATS (+$557)
• 2011 Chiefs: 9-3 ATS (+$553)

+ Giants are the most profitable team SU this season — 9-6-1, a $100 bettor would be up $702.

+ Teams after facing the Colts this season are 11-3-1 ATS in their next game.

+ Daniel Jones has done a good job beating teams after a loss. He is 14-8 ATS vs. teams off a SU loss, covering six of his last seven games in the spot.

+ Richie James needs to up his punt return average from 7.2 to 10 to earn a $100K bonus.

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+ After Jalen Hurts’ injury, he moved from a -165 favorite to +450 to +900 to now +1200 to win MVP.

MVP odds move: May 1 40-1, Wk1 22-1, Wk2 16-1, Wk3 10-1, Wk4 7-1, Wk9 +350, Wk 14 +150, Wk 15 -165, Wk 16 +450, Wk17 +900, Wk18 +1200

+ If Hurts can't start, the Eagles will start Gardner Minshew again.

• Minshew is 8-16 SU and 10-14 ATS in his career.
• Minshew is 5-12 SU as an underdog, losing his last eight starts SU as a dog (1-7 ATS, losing seven straight starts SU/ATS as a dog).
• In October or later, Minshew is 5-13 SU/ATS in his career, including 0-6 SU/ATS vs. teams .500 SU or better.

+ Jalen Hurts vs. Gardner Minshew this season

• Hurts: 13-1 SU; 8-6 ATS; 69 QBR; +13.8% DVOA; 5th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Minshew: 0-2 SU/ATS; 38.2 QBR; +15.8% DVOA; 34th of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Eagles without Lane Johnson since 2020: 3-11 SU.

+ The Eagles, Chiefs and Bills currently have an 80%+ win pct. In the last 20 years, teams with an 80%+ win pct in December or later are 142-189-3 ATS (42.9%).

+ Eagles are 14-2 on a 6-point teaser this season (tied for the best record with Falcons and Chargers)

+ Hurts is 18-4 (81.8%) SU in games in which his team is favored (11-10-1 ATS).

+ Hurts needs two rushing TDs to break Cam Newton’s single-season record.

+ Hurts has performed much better at home vs. on the road ATS in his career.

Home: 11-4-1 ATS

Road: 6-12 ATS – he’s been under .500 ATS on the road in each of his three seasons in the NFL.

+ Philly recorded seven sacks last Sunday and lead the NFL with 68 this season.

Most Sacks by Team Single Season

• 1984 Bears: 72
• 1989 Vikings: 71
• 1987 Bears: 70
• 1985 Giants: 68
• 2022 Eagles: 68

Cardinals at 49ers  Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET Line: SF (-14.5) | O/U: 40

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+ Cardinals are traveling to San Francisco after playing a road game in Atlanta. In the last decade, only four teams have played consecutive road games from EST to PST in the final two games of the regular season — they are 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS).

+ Cardinals are 7-9 against the 1st half spread this season, but they’ve won five 1st halves in a row against the Buccaneers, Broncos, Patriots, Chargers and Falcons.

+ David Blough gets the start for the Cardinals. He is 0-6 SU in his career.

QBs 0-5 SU or Worse — Last 20 Years

• John Beck: 0-5 SU
• David Blough: 0-6 SU
• Curtis Painter: 0-8 SU
• Brodie Croyle: 0-9 SU
• Zach Mettenberger: 0-10 SU
• DeShone Kizer: 0-15 SU

+ Cardinals are 29th in DVOA this season according to Football Outsiders, the only teams worse? Texans, Colts and Bears.

+ The Cardinals are averaging a league-worst 2.2 points in the first quarter.

+ Teams after facing the Falcons this season are 3-11-1 SU in their next game, including 1-10-1 SU in their last 12.

+ 49ers (12-4) are a small favorite over the Cardinals (4-12).

Teams with 65%+ win pct vs. teams with 25% win pct or less since 2016: 72-104-3 ATS. Since 2020, those teams are 31-57-2 ATS (35%).

+ Cardinals are coming off a road game in Atlanta. Teams after playing in L.A., Atlanta, New York, Vegas, Miami and New Orleans are 52-84-5 ATS (38.2%) over the last decade when playing on the road again.

+ Road teams traveling from EST to PST have performed well recently, going 63-44-5 ATS (59%) since 2016. When those teams are under .500 SU, like the Panthers, they are 36-18-2 ATS (67%) in that span.

+ The Cardinals have scored fewer than 20 points in four consecutive games for the first time since 2018.

+ Historically, the Cardinals have faded after a loss this late in the season. They are 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS under Kliff Kingsbury after a loss in December or later.

+ DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated 50+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 19 games, but only had four yards in his last game with Trace McSorley two weeks ago.

His four receiving yards were tied for the fewest in a game in his career (151 starts, including playoffs).

+ Incentives:

Matt Prater: Gets $250K with an 83%+ FG%

JJ Watt: Earned $1M bonus for 10 sacks already.

+ Kyler Murray vs. Colt McCoy vs. Trace McSorley vs. David Blough

• Blough: 0-1 SU; 1-0 ATS; 42.3 QBR; -6.6% DVOA; 17th of 64 QBs EPA/play
• Murray: 3-8 SU; 5-6 ATS; 51.7 QBR; -8% DVOA; 31st of 64 QBs EPA/play
• McCoy: 1-2 SU/ATS; 38.3 QBR; -15.3% DVOA; 51st of 64 QBs EPA/play
• McSorley: 0-1 SU; 11.7 QBR; -51.8% DVOA; 61st of 64 QBs EPA/play

+ Cardinals under Kliff Kingsbury

Overall: 28-36-1 SU and 34-29-2 ATS

• Weeks 1-7: 18-9-1 SU and 20-8 ATS
• Week 8+: 10-28 SU and 14-22-2 ATS

Kingsbury at Texas Tech

• Games 1-4: 18-6 SU and 17-6-1 ATS
• Games 5+: 17-34 SU and 23-28 ATS

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+ Brock Purdy has won his first four starts SU. No 49er has ever won his first three starts with the franchise.

Purdy is the third rookie quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win each of his first four career starts.

Rookie QB to win first four career starts

• 2022: Brock Purdy (4)
• 2004: Ben Roethlisberger (13)
• 1979: Phil Simms (4)

Rookie QBs are 14-11 SU and 16-9 ATS entering Week 18.

+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is playing vs. when he isn’t.

49ers record when Deebo gets at least one target:

• With: 32-16 SU
• Without: 8-8 SU

+ Cardinals allow 25.7 PPG this season (29th).

Kyle Shanahan is 15-27-1 ATS vs. teams who allow 24 PPG or more and 38-16 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG.

+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 23-11 SU and 21-12-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in the previous game as well.

+ Shanahan has won six straight NFC West games SU and ATS dating back to last season.

+ 49ers were 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Shanahan entering this season. This year, they are 4-0 ATS in this spot.

+ The 49ers defense has outscored opponents 140-54 in the second half of their last nine games.

+ Purdy has started his career 4-0 SU. Only one other QB has done that since 1950: Kurt Warner (four straight).

+ Purdy starts his career with multiple pass TDs in first four starts.

Most consecutive starts with multiple pass TDs to begin career: Dan Marino (5), Jay Cutler (4), Purdy (4)

+ The 49ers are 42-19 SU and 35-25-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QBs, they are 13-29 SU and 19-23 ATS.

+ 49ers are 10-30 SU when trailing at the half under Shanahan.

S.F. has won three straight games when trailing at the half: Rams, Chargers, Raiders.

+ Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB:

• Jimmy G: 35-25-1 ATS
• All others: 19-23 ATS

+ Nick Bosa (17.5) is 1.5 sacks ahead of Haason Reddick (16; +2500 preseason) for the sack lead. Bosa was 14-1 to lead the category in the preseason.

+ 49ers since getting Christian McCaffrey full time in Week 8:

• 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS.
• Weeks 1-9 DVOA: Pass: 9th | Rush: 26th
• Weeks 10-17 DVOA: Pass: 3rd | Rush: 2nd

+ 49ers defensive ranks:

• 1st in pts/game & pts/play
• 1st in opp yards/rush & yards/game
• No. 1 defense in DVOA
• No. 1 rush defense in DVOA

+ Teams after facing the Raiders are 20-29 SU, 16-33 ATS since 2020, including 5-15 SU in their last 20 dating back to '21.

• The 16-33 ATS mark is the worst for any previous opponent in the NFL since the Raiders moved to Vegas in 2020.
• Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas since moving there in 2020: 11-13 SU, 8-16 ATS (2-7 ATS last 9 games).

+ Incentives:

Brandon Aiyuk: Needs 44 receiving yds for 1,000.

Deebo Samuel: Needs 152 rush yards for $500K.

Samson Ebukam: Needs 2.5 sacks for $100K.

Chargers at Broncos  Channel: CBS | 4:25 p.m. ET Line: DEN (-3) | O/U: 39.5

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+ Justin Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite:

• Underdog: 11-6 ATS, 15-2 in 6-pt teasers
• Favorite: 15-15-1 ATS, 21-8 in 6-pt teasers

+ Chargers go under their preseason win total (10.5) with a loss.

+ ​​Herbert is 14-30-4 (32%) against the second half spread in his career.

Herbert 2H in 2022: 5-9-2 ATS

+ Broncos offense on the other side of Herbert has been pretty bad overall this year, averaging 16 PPG. Herbert is 10-2 SU vs. teams scoring under 20 PPG on the season in his career.

+ Chargers defense has stepped up lately, allowing 17 points or fewer in four straight games. Herbert is 9-3-1 ATS after the Chargers allow 20 pts or fewer in their previous game.

+ Herbert by time zone:

• EST/CST: 12-4 ATS
• MST/PST: 14-17-1 ATS

+ Herbert has 44 career games with a touchdown pass, tied with Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (44 games) for the most games with at least one touchdown pass in his first three seasons in NFL history.

+ Chargers have been a much better road team than at home.

Herbert is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. Chargers are 11-19-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.

Chargers are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on road this season. They are the third-best team in road ATS profitability this season. The Bolts have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons, including this year.

+ Incentives:

DeAndre Carter: Needs 2 receptions for $250K.

Gerald Everett: Needs 5 receptions for $250K.

Justin Herbert: Needs 34 completions to break Tom Brady’s single-season record.

Austin Ekeler: Needs 14 receptions to break Christian McCaffrey’s single-season record for a RB.

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+ The Broncos are 11-5 to the under this season, tied as the second-most profitable team this season.

Dating back to the start of last season, the under is 23-10 (70%) in Broncos games, the best percentage in the NFL.

+ The lead official for this game is Shawn Hochuli. As lead official, the under is 43-32-3 (57.3%) with Hochuli, including 19-7 to the under in December or later.

+ In a season of disappointment, Russell Wilson has found a way to cover the spread against higher scoring opponents. When teams both score and allow 21 PPG or more he is 3-2 ATS. He is 3-6 ATS vs all other opponents.

+ The Chargers haven’t won in Denver since 2018. The Broncos are 8-1 SU in when playing at home against the L.A. Chargers.

+ Broncos are 2-11 SU in their last 13 and 4-16 in their last 20 games overall.

+ Broncos have lost four games this season when they led in the fourth quarter.

+ Teams after facing the Chiefs this season are 12-3 SU in their next game, including winning 11 of their last 12.

+ Wilson is 36-19-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 6-2 ATS as an underdog with the Broncos.

As a favorite, Wilson is 0-6 ATS this season and 14-25-1 ATS since 2018 (second-least profitable QB as a favorite in that span).

• 2009 Carson Palmer: 0-7 ATS
• 2022 Russell Wilson: 0-6 ATS
• 2015 Joe Flacco: 0-6-2 ATS
• 2003 Kerry Collins: 0-6-1 ATS
• 2021 Derek Carr: 0-5 ATS
• 2009 David Garrard: 0-5 ATS

+ In Wilson’s last 28 starts, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 17 of 28 games. Under 2.5 in 24 of 28 games.

• 0: 7
• 1: 10
• 2: 7
• 3+: 4

Cowboys at Commanders  Channel: FOX | 4:25 p.m. ET Line: DAL (-7.5) | O/U: 40.5

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+ Dak has thrown an interception in six straight games and eight of his last nine.

+ Cowboys went over their preseason win total (10) with a win vs. Titans last week. Cowboys went over last season, too. Dallas hasn’t gone over their win total in consecutive years since 1994-95.

+ Cowboys are massive road favorites. If they close at 7 or more, the under is 28-20 (58.3%) when the road team is favored by 7 or more over the last two years.

+ Cowboys are tied with the Vikings for the largest margin to the over. Their games are going over the total by 4.1 PPG.

+ Micah Parsons went off the board at -1100 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year after Week 17.

+ Cowboys rushed for just 87 yards in their previous game. Since 2016, Dallas is 30-20 ATS after rushing for fewer than 100 yards, including 27-17 ATS with Dak.

+ Dak as a three-point favorite or greater on the road: 17-5 SU and 15-6-1 ATS.

Dak’s 15-6-1 ATS mark is second in this spot over the last 20 years behind just Peyton Manning (35-20-5 ATS).

+ Dak is 54-44-2 ATS (55.1%) in his career.

25-11-2 ATS (69.4%) vs. opponents below .500 SU.

• +$1,264 – 2nd to Brady since 2005.

16-24 ATS (40%) vs. opponents above .500 SU.

• -$895 – 239th of 247 QBs since 2005.

+ Cowboys are one of five teams whose games have gone over the total more than under this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL).

+ Incentives:

T.Y. Hilton: $50K each game active. $100K Wild Card win (needs 30% snaps). Escalator for wins in playoffs.

Dante Fowler: Needs 3 sacks for $250K.

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+ Sam Howell gets the start for the Commanders this week. Rookie QBs are 14-11 SU and 16-9 ATS entering Week 18.

+ Since Week 3, Commanders games are 10-3-1 to the under.

+ Commanders can go over their preseason win total (7.5) with a win.

+ The Commanders have held opposing QBs under their passing yards prop in 11 of their last 13 games.

+ Brian Robinson has exceeded 50 yards rushing in seven consecutive games.

+ Washington is on a four-game ATS losing streak, tied for their longest such streak since 2019.

+ The Commanders are 2-8 ATS vs. Dak Prescott during his career. Over the last 20 years, Dak is the most profitable QB ATS vs. Washington.

+ Taylor Heinicke not starting the final two games could have cost him 250K.

• Joey Slye gets $125,000 if he finishes in the top 12 in field goal percentage, or $250,000 for finishing in the top six (minimum 24 attempts). Slye currently ranks eighth among qualified kickers at 88%.

Lions at Packers  Channel: FOX | 8:20 p.m. ET Line: GB (-5) | O/U: 49

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+ Jared Goff is 28-14 ATS playing in the 1 p.m. ET window or earlier, including 19-8 ATS over the last two seasons. He is 28-32-2 ATS (46.7%) in all other games.

+ Goff was 36-36-2 ATS with the Rams. He is 20-10 ATS with the Lions.

At 20-10 ATS (+$832), Goff is the most profitable Lions QB ATS over the last 20 years.

+ Lions are one of five teams whose games have gone over the total more than under this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL).

+ Jamaal Williams is currently the leader in rushing TDs with 15, two ahead of Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler and Jalen Hurts. Williams was 150-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the preseason.

+ Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. Since November 1st, only the Bengals have been better.

+ Last week, the Lions played at home indoors. This week, Detroit is back on the road outdoors.

• Goff career outdoors: 30-33-2 ATS
• Indoors: 26-13 ATS

+ It's projected to be between 20 and 25 degrees at kickoff for Lions-Packers.

Goff has played four career games in freezing temperatures. He is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, averaging 17.5 PPG in the four games.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-13-1 ATS in freezing temperatures, including 26-9 ATS in the regular season.

+ Under Dan Campbell and Sean McVay, Goff is 56-39-2 ATS (59%). Under John Fassel and Jeff Fisher he was 0-7 ATS.

+ Since 2019, Goff is 38-23-1 ATS (62.3%). Only Joe Burrow is more profitable ATS in that span.

+ Incentives:

Kalif Raymond: Needs 7 receptions for $125K

Jamaal Williams: Needs 6 rush yards for $250K

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+ Aaron Rodgers is 53-31 ATS vs. NFC North opponents in his career, including 15-8 ATS since 2019.

Since 2018, Rodgers is 2-7 ATS vs. Lions, his least profitable opponent ATS.

At home in primetime in his career, Rodgers is 25-13-1 ATS, the most profitable QB at home in primetime over the last 20 years (1. Rodgers 2. Drew Brees 3. Russell Wilson, 4. Philip Rivers, 5. Peyton Manning).

+ When it comes to Rodgers’ passing yards, 260 seems to be a key number. Dating back to last season, he’s been under that number in 17 of his last 18 starts (over vs. Lions). He’s gone under 250 yards in 11 of his last 12 starts.

Rodgers passed for only 168 passing yards in the win vs. the Vikings. Rodgers is 46-26-2 ATS (64%) after throwing for fewer than 200 passing yards in his previous game – in December or later? He is 18-8 ATS in this spot.

+ Rodgers is 6-9-1 against the second half spread this season and 7-13-1 2H ATS in his last 21 games overall.

+ Brad Rogers will be the lead official for this game. Rogers’ games are 36-22 (62%) to the over since 2019, but the under is 9-6 in his games this year. 

+ Rodgers is 28-4 SU and 22-10 ATS at home in December or later in the regular season (won 10 in a row SU).

+ If you bet on Rodgers to throw an interception in each game this season, you would be up $600 on $100 bets. He is the second-most profitable QB on INT props this season (Dak is +$770).

+ Packers opened the season -450 to make playoffs. They were +650 entering Week 16, went down to +185 entering Week 17 and are now -225.

+ Preston Smith can earn a $1M bonus with 1.5 more sacks.

Market Movers 

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 18 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 18)

(+16.5)

74% of bets at Eagles

(+4)

71% of bets at Falcons

(+5.5)

69% of bets at Seahawks

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 18
(The most popular bet games for Week 18; excluding Saturday games)

(-2.5)

60,000 betting tickets

(-5)

50,000 betting tickets

(-8.5)

50,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 18

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines)

(-1.5 to -16.5)

15-pt move vs. Giants

(+4.5 to -7.5)

12-pt move at Commanders

(+5.5 to -5.5)

11-pt move vs. Rams

Chargers

vs.

Broncos

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.

PRO Props

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.

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The Big Picture

The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update first quarter, first half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team's strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: The Dolphins and Vikings are falling down the odds board…

SB: 50-1 (Highest odds to win SB this season)

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SB: 30-1 (Highest SB odds since being 40-1 in Week 1)

Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.

NFL Win Total Tracker

Here are the teams left to be decided for the regular season:

• Over: KC, PHI, MIN, CIN, NYG, DET, NYJ, SEA, ATL, DAL, SF, JAC, PIT
• Under: TB, GB, LAR, DEN, IND, NO, ARI, HOU, CHI, LV, TEN
• Goes over or under with win/loss in Week 18: BAL, CAR, LAC, NE, WAS, BUF
• CLE, MIA: under with loss, push with win

Defense Wins Out

Moneyline underdogs have struggled recently…

• Weeks 11-17: 28-76-1 (26.9%), -$3,752, -35.7% ROI
• Weeks 1-10: 60-89-1 (40.3%), +$1,837, +12.2% ROI

Just An Overreaction

So far this season, it's been profitable to back the inexperienced.

Backup QBs this year are 37-44 SU and 44-35-2 ATS, while rookie QBs are 14-11 SU and 16-9 ATS entering Week 18.

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