Dawson Knox
ATD +240 (Caesars)
Knox has scored in three straight games, and he’s a huge red-zone threat with four of his five touchdowns coming from inside the 20-yard line.
Nick Giffen and I disagreed on him entering last Monday’s matchup with the Bengals, but I felt really good about him in that matchup. Now, Knox gets a matchup with the Patriots, a team that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season with 10.
I simply don’t get pricing Knox at higher than +200. I’ve been vocal this season about him being in automatic bet when he reaches this territory.
The last time the Bills hosted the Patriots was in the playoffs last season, and Knox scored twice in that game.
In the last Bills-Patriots matchup earlier this season, both Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs scored. I could see New England over-adjusting to matchup up on those two, leaving more room for Knox over the middle.
Jahan Dotson
ATD +300 (FanDuel)
The Cowboys have allowed 21 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Honestly, I think we could stop there and it would be a good enough reason to bet Dotson.
Outside receivers have destroyed this once revered defense. Dallas has allowed six touchdowns in the last three games, and nearly 60% of those 21 touchdowns have been to receivers who play primarily on the outside.
I bring up Dotson specifically here because he lines up on the outside along with Terry McLaurin, who I also like at +240 this week.
Dotson has seven touchdowns in 11 games this season and scored in his first game against the Cowboys earlier this season. The rookie will be receiving passes this week from another rookie in Sam Howell. If Howell can sling it like the Commanders are hoping he can, I like Dotson to get one over the top in this game, especially if Dallas sits its starters later in the game.
Pick: Jahan Dotson ATD (+300) |
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MyCole Pruitt
ATD +500 (bet365)
I’m taking a page out of my co-host on “The Touchdown Show” Nick Giffen’s book here and betting a tight end against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has struggled in coverage against slot receivers this season, and that’s where Pruitt almost exclusively lines up. He’s played more than 80% of his snaps this season from the slot and ranks 12th in that stat among all tight ends.
The Buccaneers have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends this season. My guy Tommy Tremble got them last week at +500.
Pruitt actually has the second-most receiving touchdowns on the Falcons this season with three. He only has 16 targets this season, but eight have come in the last three games. He’s also played the most snaps among Falcons tight ends since Kyle Pitts got hurt.
A Falcons tight end is scoring a touchdown in Week 18. I’m betting it’s Pruitt.
