Cade York
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+146, Caesars)
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+140, DraftKings)
This matchup sets up perfectly for York to go over on his field goals, but go under on his extra points prop.
That's because Pittsburgh has a solid rush defense, taking away the Browns' offensive strength and forcing Cleveland into more third-and-long situations. Deshaun Watson just hasn't been right this year, locking in his worst season to date on nearly every advanced passing metric.
The Steelers also fit this profile, as they've allowed over 1.5 field-goal attempts in 11 of 16 games, while allowing under 1.5 extra-point attempts in 9 of 16.
So while the Browns pass up on field goals at the fourth-highest rate in the league, I think this is a situation where books have over-adjusted for that.
I have York projected to go over 1.5 field goals 44.1% of the time, and would bet the over down to +140. I have him going under 1.5 extra points 46.5% of the time and would bet it down to +130.
Field Goal Overs
Cairo Santos
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+140, DraftKings)
Chris Boswell
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+125, BetMGM)
Chase McLaughlin
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+123, Caesars)
These field goal overs all benefit from absolutely no weather concerns, and each kicker is kicking at home, making conditions more comfortable.
In the cases of Boswell and McLaughlin, the Steelers and Colts are two teams that kick field goals on fourth down well above expectation. Each team ranks in the top quarter of the league in field-goal attempts over expectation, per my field goals expected model.
As for Santos, while the Bears are in the top quarter of the league in passing up on field goals, they face a Vikings team that is tops in the NFL in field goals allowed and third fastest in pace of play.
Here are my projections and bet-to numbers for each:
- Santos: Over 44.7%, bet to +140
- Boswell: Over 48.6%, bet to +120
- McLaughlin: Over 48.5%, bet to +120
