The use of trends to find an edge with NFL sports betting can be a heated debate. Some bettors find no value in past results while others feel they can be a key indicator of what’s to come.
With six teams getting beaten by double digits in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, we’re now potentially seeing inflated spreads for Week 2 due to the immediate overreaction and then overcorrection of odds.
However, did you know that since the start of the 2014 season, teams that got their heads bashed in by 10 points or more in Week 1 have covered the spread 60.7% of the time in Week 2?
According to BetLabs, since the start of the 2014 season, there have been 56 instances of teams losing by double-digit points in Week 1. Their record sits at 34-21-1 against the spread (ATS) for Week 2 in that span, regardless of spread. Those same teams also win straight-up (SU) 45.9% of the time (26-30).
Here’s the year-by-year breakdown of the last eight seasons with this trend:
| Year | Straight-up | Against the Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| 2020 | 2-6 (22.2%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| 2019 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| 2018 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 4-2 (66.7%) |
| 2017 | 5-5 (50%) | 6-4 (60%) |
| 2016 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| 2015 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| 2014 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
Total: 26-30 SU (51.2%) | 34-21-1 ATS (60.7%)
For a more in-depth breakdown of the 2021 sample, there were seven teams that fit this criteria. Here’s how each game played out:
| Team | Week 2 Score | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons (+13) vs. TB | 45-28 win | Loss |
| Titans (+6.5) vs. SEA | 40-33 loss | Win |
| Colts (+4) vs. LAR | 27-24 loss | Win |
| Jaguars (+6) vs. DEN | 23-13 loss | Loss |
| Packers (-11.5) vs. DET | 35-11 win | Win |
| Giants (+4) vs. WAS | 30-29 loss | Win |
| Bears (-2) vs. CIN | 23-20 win | Win |
Final results: 3-4 SU | 5-2 ATS
Weeks 2 Betting Targets
Although this trend has been tried and true for the last eight seasons, it does make bettors have to consider either some really bad teams to do well in Week 2 or really good teams to bounce-back, lay the points on a huge spread and crush their opponents.
Odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. For the latest NFL odds, click here.
- Patriots (-1.5) vs Steelers (NE lost 20-7 vs. Dolphins)
- Jets (+6) vs Browns (NYJ lost 24-9 vs. Ravens)
- Packers (-10) vs Bears (GB lost 23-7 vs. Vikings)
- Cardinals (+5.5) vs Raiders (ARI lost 44-21 vs. Chiefs)
- Cowboys (+7.5) vs Bengals (DAL lost 19-3 vs. Buccaneers)
- Rams (-10.5) vs Falcons (LAR lost 31-10 vs. Bills)
In theory, four of six of these teams are going to cover the spread while nearly three will win outright. I wouldn’t necessarily endorse a blind-betting strategy with this trend but it’s fascinating to watch it play out.
Bonne Chance!
