It's Week 2 and you're looking for a little action on the NFL games, but not too much. You're not trying to beat the lines or build a bankroll. We've got you covered. Here's how to bet $20 on the NFL in some creative ways this weekend.
$5 Spread Play: Seahawks (+5) at Lions
The lookahead (the line when it was first published over the summer) was Lions -2.5.
So, we're looking at 2.5 points of movement based on the Seahawks getting pantsed by the Rams, and the Lions slipping by the Chiefs without Travis Kelce and Chris Jones thanks to a fluke pick six.
That dog just won't hunt, as my grandad used to say.
Let's throw in some other data points.
"According to BetLabs, there have been 62 instances of teams losing by double digits in Week 1. Those teams are 39-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 2. They also win straight-up (SU) 51.6% of the time (32-30)."
The Seahawks lost 30-13 to the Rams in Week 1. ✅
Seattle was also the first pick by Action Network's Chris Raybon this week on the Action Network Podcast's Sunday Sixpack:
Seattle's getting more of the money bet on it than tickets, per our BetLabs system. Road dogs in this spot early in the season (Weeks 1-4) are 50-28-0 (64%) ATS.
Let's bet on Geno Smith and fade the Lions off a monster upset.
$5 Total Play: Commanders vs. Broncos Under 39 (BetRivers)
This total has dropped three points at some places from the opener of 41.
Everyone's expecting a truly horrific football game. What's more fun to bet on than that? Come for the profit margin, stay for the hilarity of human failure on the biggest stage.
Since 2019, the Broncos have averaged just 19 points per game at home. When the total's below 40, Denver has only averaged 16.4 points per game.
The Commanders had difficulty with the Cardinals' defense last week. Is Arizona's defense better than expected? Or is the Commanders' offense awful? Either is possible at this point.
Meanwhile, the Broncos put up 16 points — at home, in a division rivalry game — to kick off the "new era' with Sean Payton. And that was against the Raiders, who have graded out as one of the worst defenses in the league by most evaluations.
The Broncos actually played efficiently on offense last week, but just couldn't score off long, sustained drives. They also couldn't get the Raiders off the field.
If the Broncos' defense comes out angry and dominates Washington? Great. The under will hit.
If the Broncos offense once again can't crack 20 points? Great. The under will hit.
Defensive touchdowns are always a concern, but the Broncos only had one defensive score last season. On the other side, Washington only had four.
Let's root against human achievement and fade Russell Wilson, who had a good game last week and still only put up 16 points.
$5 Play on a Moneyline Round Robin
Bengals -164
Titans +124
Giants -200
Buccaneers -152
Round robins are when you bet combinations of parlays. We're doing three-team parlays at $1.25 each for a potential payout of $20.53.
Bengals: The Ravens are without multiple offensive linemen and home favorites in division games are 92-48 (66%) since 2003.
Titans: Since 2003, home teams as less than 3-point underdogs in Week 2 are 14-9 straight-up (61%). Additionally, the Chargers are without Austin Ekeler and Joey Bosa is questionable.
Giants: Teams favored after losing to a division opponent in Week 1 are 53-31 in Week 2 (63%). (This also applies to the Bengals.) Also, the Giants literally can't play worse.
Buccaneers: Home teams that are 1-0 facing and an 0-1 squad are 63-38 straight up. We're fading the Bears.
$5 Play on the Same-Game Parlay
- Chiefs -2.5 (-156)
- Jaguars Over 24.5 (+102)
- Travis Etienne 50+ yards
We're taking theoretically non-correlated events here, following Brandon Anderson's description in his picks column.
Anderson likes the Chiefs at any number south of 3.5, so we'll pay extra to get under the key number of 3. Kansas City needs to win by a field goal.
The Jaguars must put up points to keep up with the Chiefs and their defense has major question marks in the secondary. So, we'll go over 24.5.
Chris Jones is back for the Chiefs, but Kansas City's rushing defense is still its weakness. One explosive run and this should be an over for Etienne.
