Week 1 had a little bit over everything, except a great passing performance. Favorites won at a record rate, while the biggest underdog also won outright.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 2 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Friday, Sept. 13, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Favorites Reign
Week 1 Stays Chalk
NFL favorites went 13-3 straight up on the moneyline (9-7 ATS) in Week 1. That is tied for the best SU record for Week 1 favorites since realignment in 2002 (also 13-3 SU in 2009).
Favorites also started the season 4-0 SU/ATS in night games during Week 1.
The 2020, 2014, 2009 and 2007 seasons were the last times favorites went undefeated SU in Week 1 night games. The last time the favorites in all the night games went undefeated SU/ATS in Week 1 was back in 1995, when they had just two games. This year is the first in which favorites went undefeated SU/ATS in Week 1 night games with at least 3 games played.
The overreaction to favorites based on Week 1 has arrived — 10 of 16 games have seen the opening favorites line get bigger. That mark of 10+ games would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years — no season in that span even closed with nine such games.
Different Opponents
NFC South Change Roles
The Saints closed as 3.5-pt favorites vs. Panthers. This week, they are about 6-pt 'dogs to the Cowboys.
We haven't seen a team win by 20+ in Week 1 be listed as a 'dog of 6 or more points since the 49ers and Blaine Gabbert did so in 2016. Additionally, only two teams have closed as 7+ pt 'dogs after a Week 1 thrashing — the 2016 49ers and the 1998 Cowboys — both losing by exactly 19 pts.
The Bucs closed as 4-pt favorites vs. Commanders. This week, they are about 7-pt 'dogs to the Lions.
Since 1990, we've only seen four teams win Week 1 win by 17+ pts and be a 7+ pt 'dog in Week 2, with the Rams last year being the last team to do so. Those four teams are 1-3 ATS, but 0-4 SU, losing by 17.5 PPG.
Different weeks for both teams.
Singles Life
All Eyes on Baltimore
The Ravens were 7.5-pt lookahead favorites against the Raiders, but that's already up to 9.5.
There's a chance we see no double-digit favorites in Week 1 or 2 in consecutive seasons for the first time since the merger in 1970. In the 55 seasons since the merger, there has been a double-digit favorite within the first two weeks in 49 of those seasons (ones that didn’t: 2024, 2023, 2020, 2015, 1984 and 1980).
Desperate Times
After Blowing Big Leads
The Cardinals, Jaguars and Titans all blew 10+ point leads in Week 1. Teams to blow a 10+ pt lead in Week 1 are 29-17 SU and 28-17-1 ATS in Week 2 since 1990. Within the first four weeks of the regular season, those desperate teams coming off blowing their previous games see their next game go 80-56-3 (59%) to the over, going over by almost 4 PPG.
We'll Actually Run
Pass Game Missing
In Week 1, there were a total of 34 passing touchdowns between all 32 teams. That's three fewer than last year and for some perspective, 2021 had 61 pass TDs in Week 1.
Only 8 of 24 QBs went over 1.5 passing TDs in Week 1. There were 17 QBs with fewer than 200 passing yards with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
There were also 24 QBs with one or fewer passing touchdowns with 20+ pass attempts in Week 1, the most since the merger in 1970.
Two teams threw for 300+ passing yards: The Dolphins and Rams. Neither covered the spread, the first time since 2010 no team with 300+ pass yds covered a Week 1 game.
The overreaction to totals based on bad passing play has shown up in Week 2 as 12 of 16 games have seen their totals drop from their opening line. That mark of 12+ games to see their total drop would be the most in a Week 2 in the past 20 years.
A Wins, A Win
No. 1 Picks in Second Start
Caleb Williams was the 19th quarterback since the merger to go No. 1 overall and start in Week 1 of his draft year. Those quarterbacks are now 4-14-1 SU and 6-13 ATS in Week 1. Overall, No. 1 picks to start at QB are 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS in the first start of their careers. The last No. 1 pick to win his first start before last Sunday was David Carr in 2002. No. 1 picks are now 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS since 2003.
Williams' 1st start didn't go so well. In fact, 11 QBs have had 25+ pass attempts and fewer than 100 pass yds in their first career start. Here is the group to do it since 2000: Williams, Tommy DeVito, Desmond Ridder and Brett Hundley.
How did those 27 QBs perform in their second start?
- 5-22 SU, 10-16-1 ATS
- 3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS since 2010
- 4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS since 2003
Lots of Holes
Packers Go To Backup
With Jordan Love sidelined, the Packers will go to a backup QB for just their second game since 2017. Their last such game came in 2021, when Love came in for Aaron Rodgers against the Chiefs and lost 13-7, but covered the 7-pt spread. In the past decade, the Packers have won one game SU at home with a backup QB (1-4 SU), that came by Brett Hundley in 2017.
Over the past 20 years, only 3 QBs are above .500 ATS for the Packers – Rodgers, Brett Favre and Love – the other four – Matt Flynn, Seneca Wallace, Hundley and Scott Tolzien – are .500 ATS or worse.
Here is how backup QBs have performed in their first start as a backup for that team that season, while also being listed as an underdog:
9-16 SU (36%), 12-12-1 ATS since start of last season
20-49 SU (29%), 37-30-2 ATS (55%) since 2021 – past three seasons.
Buy Low
Panthers Time?
Panthers had the worst loss of Week 1, losing by 37 pts to the Saints. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 50-18-2 ATS (73.5%) — but some caution. Those teams are just 6-6 ATS in the first four weeks of the regular season.
Bo Goes Low
Broncos Low Total
The Steelers–Broncos lookahead line was 40.5, but is now south of 37/37.5 in the market. If the total closes at 36 or lower, it would be the Broncos lowest O/U in a home game since their 2012 playoff game against the Steelers that closed at 34 — the infamous Tim Tebow-Demaryius Thomas overtime TD winner.
Time Is Running Out
Low Possession
The Jets, Colts, Panthers and Falcons were held to 25 minutes of possession or less in their Week 1 losses, the four lowest times in the NFL.
Last decade, teams to hold 25 minutes of possession or less in Week 1 are just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game.
 |  | |  |
Overtime Effect
Looking To Next Week
The Lions and Rams played overtime on SNF in Week 1. Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43.7% of games over the last decade, covering just 45.5% of them.
Every NFL Game For Week 2
 |   |  |  |  | | |   |   |   |  |   |  |   |  |  |  |
➤Thursday home teams are just 37-51 ATS since 2019, including 33-45 ATS in night Thursday games. When the spread is 4 pts or less, home teams in this spot are 19-28 ATS.
➤Josh Allen is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in Week 2. Bills have won five straight Week 2s SU.
Tua Tagovailoa is 2-1 SU in Week 2s, his only loss? To Josh Allen.
➤Allen has faced Tagovailoa seven times, Allen is 4-2-1 ATS, but covering the spread by 12.1 PPG.
➤Tagovailoa is 9-1 ATS vs. the Patriots and Jets. He is 2-4-1 ATS vs. the Bills.
➤Miami has specifically had issues with Buffalo and Josh Allen. They are 2-11 SU vs. him, including 0-7 SU in Buffalo and 1-6 SU in Tua vs. Josh matchups.
➤Just like last year, the Bills failed to cover the spread in Week 1. The Bills have only started 0-2 ATS three times since 2003 and haven’t done it since 2018.
➤It takes it out of you. The Bills came back from 14+ points down to beat the Cardinals in Week 1.
Teams who play on the road after a SU win in which they came back from 14+ points to win are 54-90 SU and 61-82-2 ATS in their next game.
➤The Bills played 18 games last season with the majority of the spread ticket count – the most of any team in the NFL. In Week 1, the Cardinals were the public side as road underdogs.
➤Since 2005, Dolphins are 14-19 SU at home in Weeks 1-4 — Tua Tagovailoa is 4-1 SU in that spot, Mike McDaniel is 4-0 SU.
➤Also, the “1:00 p.m. ET Dolphins home kick theory” has worked lately, 43-23 SU past decade. Outside that window, just 8-7 SU.
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 29-23-1 ATS in his career (18-9 ATS at home; 11-14-1 ATS road/neutral). Tagovailoa is 26-14-1 ATS in EST | 3-7 ATS in all other time zones.
➤Dolphins are 0-1 ATS at home this season after winning, but not covering, against the Jaguars in Week 1. Miami hasn’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. They are 39-24-3 ATS since 2016 at home. The Dolphins are the best home team ATS in that span, with the Packers coming in second.
➤Week 1 was the 4th time the Dolphins overcame a deficit of 14+ points under Mike McDaniel — the most in the NFL since 2022.
➤Dating back to last season, Lamar Jackson has lost three straight games 1H ATS and in his career is only 8-10-1 1H ATS after a SU loss in his last game. 4-8 1H ATS at home and 3-7-1 1H ATS since 2021.
Overall, Jackson is 51-31-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 257 QBs. No. 2 on the list? Joe Flacco. Jackson still tends to cover 1H early in the season. He's 13-7-1 1H ATS in the first four games of the season, including 8-3 in the first two weeks.
➤Over the past four seasons, Jackson is 15-20 ATS as a favorite, including 7-17 ATS when favored by more than three points.
➤Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 12-5 ATS in Week 1, the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database. Harbaugh is 10-6 SU, ATS in Week 2 as coach of the Ravens.
Between Weeks 1 & 2, Harbaugh is 22-11 ATS, the best coach ATS in NFL.
➤Todd Monken is in his 2nd year as offensive coordinator in Baltimore — his fifth offensive coordinator stint in NFL — and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great.
2024: BAL 0-1 ATS
2023: BAL 12-7 ATS
2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
Total: 37-43-4 ATS
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 47-21 SU, good for the first- (KC) and third-best (BAL) win percentage in that span.
➤The Ravens lost their opener and are now big favorites against the Raiders.
Favorites of 7 or more who are under .500 SU on the season are 85-15 SU since 2016, winning by 10.6 PPG (including 39-6 SU last four seasons).
Favorites of more than 7 pts who are under .500 SU on the season are 32-2 SU since 2020 and 68-10 SU since 2016.
➤The Raiders are in unique spot playing on the road in both the Pacific time zone in Week 1 and Eastern time zone in Week 2.
It's happened six times in Weeks 1 & 2 over the last 20 years. The Dolphins had to do it last year and it last happened with the Chiefs in 2018. Those teams went 2-4 SU – SU margin was -35 in six games.
➤Ravens go from +3 in Week 1 vs. Chiefs to now favored by over a TD vs. Raiders. Teams to be +3 or higher Week 1, then favored by 7.5 or more in Week 2 are 23-0 SU and 1t6-7 ATS since 2016. Last loss came by the Saints back in 2015.
➤How have the Raiders performed since moving to Las Vegas?
Raiders at home in Vegas: 17-17 SU, 19-14-1 ATS
On road/neutral: 15-20 SU/ATS
➤Even with the loss to the Chargers, Antonio Pierce is 7-2-1 ATS with the Raiders – the best ATS win pct for any coach for the Raiders in the Wild Card era since 1990. That 7-2-1 ATS mark is the best record of any coach in the NFL since he got the job in Week 9 last year.
➤Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has followed his role as an underdog and favorite. Minshew is 9-4 SU in his career when listed as a betting favorite and 6-19 SU as an underdog. Minshew is 1-15 SU in his past 16 starts as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
Minshew’s 4.6 avg depth of target was the lowest among all QBs in Week 1. His aDot was 7.4 last season with the Colts.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Herbert doesn’t mind a good road trip. He’s 9-4 ATS in all games played in EST, including 15-8 ATS in EST or CST. That mark includes 5-2 ATS when coming off a SU win and 4-0 ATS since 2022.
➤The Chargers finished 3-5 ATS on the road last season, breaking an 11-year streak of finishing .500 or better against the spread on the road. Herbert is 18-13 ATS on the road, including 8-3 ATS in September and October.
➤Justin Herbert has made 64 career starts in the NFL. He is 31-33 SU and 33-30-1 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 25-8 SU, 24-8-1 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 15-8 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 18-22-1 ATS
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-10 in Herbert’s 31 regular season starts – the second most profitable QB to the under in that span behind only Kenny Pickett (18-6).
➤2024 started with a second-half cover for Herbert and the Chargers – not something that happens every day.
Herbert hasn’t covered the 2H spread in his first two starts of a season in his career. Overall, he is 2-11-3 2H ATS in the first 4 games of the season, even after the 2H cover vs. Raiders.
Herbert is 19-40-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he’s 259th of 260 QBs in 2H ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. Herbert is 8-26-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,864 — worst in NFL since he was drafted).
Herbert 2H ATS Career
2024: 1-0 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 in season openers, tying Raymond Berry for the best record in openers in NFL history. Berry won all five openers in New England from 1985-89.
Harbaugh hasnt lost a game SU as a head coach since facing TCU in 2022.
In the NFL, Harbaugh is 15-5 SU as a road favorite, going 10-3 SU with Colin Kaepernick and 5-2 SU with Alex Smith.
➤The Panthers woes continue …
They've been an underdog in 21 straight games (30 of last 31) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT).
Lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite
Every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021
Not favored in any game in 2024 as of now at DraftKings Sportsbook
Last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021
➤The Panthers didn't snap the ball while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game last season – the first team to do so in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Dating back to the end of the 2022 regular season, Carolina hasn’t snapped the ball in the fourth quarter with a lead since Week 17 last year – 19 games ago.
Carolina hasn’t led by 10+ pts at any point during the game since Week 6 of last season and they’ve actually lost their last three games outright when they’ve had a 10+pt lead.
➤Last year, the Panthers averaged just 4.11 yards per offensive play. That was not only the worst mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team since the Bengals back in 2008. Not only that, but their 4.11 Y/OP was the third-lowest for any time since 1990 with at least 1,000 offensive plays run that season.
➤Mike McCarthy is 21-13-1 ATS within the first two weeks of the regular season – 3rd-best mark of any coach in the last 20 years. McCarthy is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the Cowboys in Week 2.
McCarthy in Sept-Oct: 71-48-3 ATS (2nd-best last 20 years for any coach behind just Bill Belichick).
➤The Saints blew out the Panthers in Week 1. In Derek Carr’s career, he is 28-40-1 ATS after a SU win, the fourth-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003. The only active QB worse? Kirk Cousins.
➤When Dennis Allen is an underdog of a FG or more, his teams are 5-28 SU, with a $100 bettor down $1,677. Of the 18 coaches down $1,000 or more last 20 years, it’s just Allen, Arthur Smith, Scott Linehan and Rod Marinelli with 4 SU wins or fewer.
Allen is 7-16 SU and 5-16-2 ATS after a SU win in his last game. That 5-16-2 ATS mark is 5th-worst of 144 coaches last 20 years. He’s 1-13-2 ATS after a SU win in November or earlier. His only cover came against Brady Quinn in 2012.
➤The Saints closed as 3.5-pt favorites vs. Panthers. This week, they are about 6-pt 'dogs to the Cowboys. Different weeks.
We haven't seen a team win by 20+ in Week 1 and be listed as a 'dog of 6 or more points since the 49ers and Blaine Gabbert did so in 2016 and only two teams have closed as 7+ pt 'dogs after a Week 1 thrashing — the 2016 49ers and the 1998 Cowboys — both losing by exactly 19 pts.
➤The good news for the Saints is they are 'dogs this week. Derek Carr is 53-46-1 ATS as a 'dog and 22-37-2 ATS as a favorite.
Carr hasn’t closed as a 'dog above 4 pts since October of 2022. In his career, he is 29-21 ATS in that spot.
➤The Cowboys points fiesta started off on the right track. Last year, they became the 28th team in NFL history to score 500 points in a season and the sixth team to score 500+ points, but not win a playoff game, joining the 2021 Cowboys, 2019 Ravens, 2011 Packers, 2010 Patriots and 2000 Rams.
Here is how those six teams performed the year after. All six won a playoff game, with two making (and losing) the Super Bowl.
2023 DAL -> 2024: 1-0 SU, 33 pts
2021 DAL -> 2022: 12-5, 467 pts, W WC, L Div
2019 BAL -> 2020: 11-5, 468 pts, W WC, L Div
2011 GB -> 2012: 11-5, 433 pts, W WC, L Div
2010 NE -> 2011: 13-3, 511 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
2000 STL -> 2001: 14-2, 503 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
➤Dak Prescott has historically relished the role of a favorite. He is 50-37 ATS (58%) as a favorite in his career, including 27-13 ATS as a favorite since 2021. Jared Goff is 2nd-best since 2021 as a favorite, more than $500 behind Prescott on a $100/game bet.
The encouraging sign for the offense is that the Cowboys scoring output over their past 10 games as a favorite in the game after scoring 30+ pts in their prior game: 32, 33, 41, 45, 33, 16, 30, 40, 27, 40
➤Tom Brady will be on the call for Cowboys-Saints after having Cowboys-Browns in Week 1. Just so we can keep track, road teams 1-0 SU/ATS, underdogs 1-0 SU/ATS and overs 1-0 with Brady in the booth.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Bucs closed as 4-pt favorites vs. Commanders. This week, they are about 7-pt 'dogs to the Lions.
Since 1990, we've only seen four teams win Week 1 by 17+ pts and be a 7+ pt 'dog in Week 2, with the Rams last year being the last team to do so. Those four teams are 1-3 ATS, but 0-4 SU, losing by 17.5 PPG.
➤Some Jared Goff superlatives after another cover in Week 1 vs. Rams.
Goff is 12-3 ATS in Week 1 & 2 in his career – best ATS of any QB in the last 20 years.
Goff is most profitable QB ATS over the past five years overall – since 2020 at 44-24 ATS, +$1,627 on a $100 bet.
Goff is 24-11 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL.
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor
Indoor: 36-17 ATS (26-9 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
➤A little inflated? Totals of 50+ with Dan Campbell and the Lions are 9-5 to the under, going under the total by 3.1 PPG.
➤The Lions are 36-16 ATS (69.2%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
➤Baker Mayfield started his career 2-6 ATS in the first two weeks of the season prior to getting to Tampa Bay. Since his time with the Bucs, he is 3-0 SU/ATS in early season games. The question is can they win again? Baker has played 27 career games off of a SU win, when he is listed as an underdog in his next game, his teams are 8-19 SU, but a decent 4-4 SU with the Bucs.
Baker finished with 4 pass TD, 0 INT, with just one sack and an 80% completion pct.
He’s just the third QB to post those numbers in a Week 1. Lamar Jackson in 2019 and Len Dawson in 1963.
➤Todd Bowles career as an underdog. He is 6-7 SU with Baker Mayfield and 12-36 SU with all other QBs.
➤Over the last two seasons, the under is 19-11 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $633 taking the under in this spot, second-best of any current starting QB behind just Justin Herbert.
➤Since 2008, the Colts are 2-14-1 straight up and ATS in Week 1. The Colts haven't won a Week 1 game SU since Andrew Luck was QB in 2013.
In Week 2, Colts are 13-8 ATS last 20 years and 6-1 ATS since 2017.
➤Between Weeks 1 and 4 last season, when Anthony Richardson started three games, he averaged 23.1 fantasy pts per game in STD, that mark was the 3rd-highest of any QB behind just Justin Herbert and Josh Allen.
In Week 1, he had the 4th-highest fantasy mark among QBs.
➤Packers just played a neutral site game against the Eagles and now play the next week against Colts. It takes a good team to bounce back from that turnaround. Teams listed as a favorite after playing a neutral site game are 37-17 SU last 20 years and 17-29 SU as an underdog.
When those teams have 10 days rest or fewer, they are actually 24-17 SU in their next game, but 24-16-1 to the under — this applies to both the Packers and Eagles this week.
➤Packers lost to the Eagles in Brazil last week. GB is 16-10 ATS under Matt LaFleur after a SU loss. Unfortunately, that stat is 13-5 ATS with Aaron Rodgers and only 3-5 ATS with Jordan Love – and now they are working with his back up QB.
➤Matt LaFleur's Packers have been underdogs 33 times. He has covered 22 of those 33, by an average of over 4 points a game. In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 13-3 ATS.
➤With Jordan Love sidelined, the Packers will go to a back up QB for just their second game since 2017. Their last such game came in 2021 when Jordan Love came in for Aaron Rodgers against the Chiefs and lost 13-7, but covered the 7-pt spread. In the last decade, the Packers have won one game SU at home with a backup QB (1-4 SU), that came by Brett Hundley in 2017.
Last 20 years, only 3 QBs are above .500 ATS for the Packers – Rodgers, Favre and Love – the other four – Flynn, Wallace, Hundley, Tolzein – are .500 ATS or worse.
In Malik Willis’ three career starts, his teams have scored 14, 17 and 17 pts.
➤The Packers-Colts lookahead line before Week 1 was GB -4.5, Green Bay is now about a 3-pt underdog at home.
Teams to open as the underdog and close as the favorite are 76-106 ATS (42%) since 2018. 1-1 ATS so far in 2024 with Vikings and Browns in Week 1.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 31-22 to the under in his NFL career, fourth-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 104 QBs), including 22-12 to the under in November or earlier.
Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤Lawrence is 24-29 ATS in his career. He's 19-17 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
➤Lawrence has lost six consecutive starts straight up dating back to November of last season, including three straight starts SU as a favorite. Overall, Lawrence is 8-9 SU as a favorite. He’s 1 of 8 QBs under .500 SU as a favorite last 20 years with min. 10 starts as a favorite – with the 3rd most starts of those 8 QBs.
37 – Kerry Collins 18-19 SU
24 – Kyler Murray 11-13 SU
17 – Trevor Lawrence 8-9 SU
➤Deshaun Watson is 33-34-2 ATS in his career and 14-20-2 ATS as a favorite, which he was in Week 1 vs. Cowboys. Watson is 19-14 ATS as an underdog – overall, Watson is 3-7 SU and ATS over the first two weeks of the season.
Watson was sacked 6 times, most of any QB in Week 1. He had 169 pass yds on 45 attempts. No QB has ever had fewer than 200 pass yds on 45+ attempts in a Week 1 and it has only been done twice in the regular season since 2015: Big Ben in 2022 and Nathan Peterman in 2018.
Watson’s last 300 yd game came with the Texans in January 2021.
➤Browns are 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. Stefanski is 25-20-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤Kevin Stefanski is 0-4 ATS coaching in Week 2’s – that is the most ATS losses without a win for all 134 coaches in the last 20 years.
➤We get some Sam Darnold revenge in Week 2. Darnold was a backup QB for the 49ers last year and now gets a chance to help Minnesota start 2-0.
Darnold is 23-33-1 ATS in his NFL career.
He’s 22-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 6-9 SU as a favorite, 10-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU. He’s even 7-14 SU vs. teams below .500 SU.
➤Darnold is 8-11-1 ATS coming off a SU win in his career, including 1-5 ATS in his last six games in this spot. Darnold has won by 20+ twice, both with the Jets and his teams scored a total of 18 pts combined in their next game, losing both outright.
➤The 49ers had their 3-game SU losing streak in the middle of last year, with their loss to Minnesota sandwiched in the middle.
Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 35-28 ATS when looking for revenge on an opponent after they lost their previous meeting and 25-17 ATS since 2019.
➤The 49ers have covered the spread in five straight road games dating back to last season – their longest such streak since 2019-20 (6 games).
In true road games, Shanahan is 8-2 ATS with the 49ers on short rest, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
Best Coaches ATS on Road, Short Rest Last 20 Years
1. Mike McCarthy: 13-4-1 ATS
2. Sean McVay: 8-2 ATS
3. Kyle Shanahan: 8-2 ATS
➤Any worries about 49ers getting up for an early season road game? Since 2019, they are 7-1 SU on the road within the first two weeks of the regular season.
Shanahan has coached 21 games where his team played prior game in PST and then next game on road in CST or EST. He’s 13-8 ATS, including 8-3 ATS as a favorite.
➤Christian McCaffrey was a surprise late inactive for MNF in Week 1.
In games Christian McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
The 49ers are now 2-2 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries and his teams (CAR, SF) are 19-28 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
The 49ers ranked 7th in rush EPA in Week 1 without McCaffrey even playing.
➤Trent Williams had a question mark on his name entering Week 1 and ended up playing.
SF has lost five consecutive games SU where Williams either hasn’t played or played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps.
SF pts scored: 20, 19, 17, 17, 14
SF is 22-2 SU in the games Williams has played over 50% offensive snaps during that five-game losing streak without him.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Patriots are looking to pull the upset again. They are the only team that won as 'dogs of 3 points or more in Week 1 and are 'dogs of 3 points or more in Week 2.
In the last 20 years, 35 teams have tried what the Patriots are attempting and six pulled off the upset (6-29 SU): '21 Raiders, '18 Chiefs, '18 Buccaneers, '10 Chiefs, '09 Jets, '07 Packers
➤Don’t be too scared of New England. Teams to win outright as 'dogs of 6+ in Week 1 are 11-8-3 ATS in Week 2 over the past 20 years.
➤Geno Smith is 10-16-1 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-17-2 ATS as an underdog. Of Geno's 10 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 2-8 ATS in his career.
As a road favorite of 3 or more, Geno is 4-0 SU in his career.
Geno Biggest Favorite – Road/Neutral Career
-6.5 at Rams, 2022 – W, 27-23
-3.5 at Titans, 2014 – W, 16-11
-3 at Cardinals, 2023 – W, 21-20
-3 at Titans, 2023 – W, 20-17
➤The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs of 3 or more in consecutive games since 2000 – something they are poised to do this week against the Seahawks after closing +8 in their win last week against the Bengals.
New England last started 2-0 SU, as 'dogs in both games, to open the season back in 2002.
➤Because it's important we keep an updated tally …
Patriots since Brady left: 30-39 SU, 30-37-2 ATS
Patriots since Belichick left: 1-0 SU/ATS
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 36 times in five seasons (14-21-1 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
➤Jacoby Brissett is 32-17 1H ATS in his career. Of 260 QBs in the last 20 years, he's the 3rd-most profitable QB 1H ATS behind just Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson.
➤Teams after playing in Soldier Field are 98-62-2 ATS (61%) last 20 years, making a $100 bettor ~$3,000. Next closest? Jaguars at $1,700 range.
➤Will Levis has accumulated over 350 total plays at QB this year and last season. Of the 41 QBs to have at least 200 plays since the start of last year, Levis ranked 31st in EPA/play, 34th in success rate, 41st (last) in completion percentage … and first in air yards at over 10.5 per attempt.
➤The Titans led the Bears 17-0 and lost 24-17, failing to cover the spread.
Underdogs of 4+ pts to lead by 17+ at any point in the game were 66-1-1 ATS since 2019 (HOU-KC in 2020).
How do teams perform after blowing a lead like that? Teams to lead by 17+ pts and lose their last game are 33-23 SU since 1990 when playing at home, with those games 34-21-1 to the over.
When those teams blow 17+ pt leads within the first four weeks of the season, their next games are 11-19 SU, but 22-7-1 to the over, going over by 7.6 PPG.
➤The Jets had the ball for just 21:20 in their opener against the 49ers. That's the fewest time of possession by an Aaron Rodgers-led team in any start of his career.
Last decade, teams to hold 25 minutes of possession or less in Week 1 are just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game.
➤Jets are the third team in the Wild Card era to begin their season playing on Monday Night Football on the road and then play on the road again in Week 2.
The other two lost SU – the 2011 Raiders won in Week 1 in Denver on MNF and then lost in Buffalo and the 2010 Ravens won in Week 1 in New York and then lost in Cincinnati.
Teams coming off MNF on the road and having to play on the road again are 12-21 SU, 13-20 ATS over the last decade.
➤The Jets and Bengals are in for a doozy this year. Since 2000, no team has had to play on a Thursday after back-to-back road games, with one of those two road games being a game played on a Monday.
In 2000, the Buccaneers had to do this, facing the Lions at home on Thursday, but they had a bye week before the game – not so much with New York and Cincinnati.
Jets: Week 1 at SF (MNF), Week 2 at TEN, Week 3 vs. NE (TNF)
Bengals: Week 14 at DAL (MNF), Week 15 at TEN, Week 16 vs. CLE (TNF)
➤Aaron Rodgers is 45-26-1 ATS (63%) after a SU loss in his career. With a cover against the Titans, he would overtake Drew Brees for the best QB in this spot last 20 years.
When this “bounce back” game happens for Rodgers in Week 2 or 3, he is 6-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS in Week 2.
➤December 12th, 2021 — Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears).
Since that 300-yard game: he's 12-12 SU, 10-14 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
➤Nathaniel Hackett is in his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. His teams are 94-78 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
'23-’24 NYJ: 7-11
'22 DEN: 6-11
'19-'21 GB: 27-27
'16-'18 JAC: 25-26
'13-'14 BUF: 13-19
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤It happened again for the Giants. After losing last year’s opener 40-0 to the Cowboys, they lost this year’s 28-6 to the Vikings. They are the first team since the 2019-20 Browns to lose back-to-back openers by 20+ pts and the sixth since 2000. The only good note, is four of the other five teams on the list battled in Week 2, winning or covering.
Giants 2023-24
Browns 2019-20 – won 35-30, home, -6
Colts 2011-12 – won 23-20, home, +3
Rams 2008-09 – lost 9-7, road, +10
Bengals 2002-03 – lost 23-20, road, +12.5
Lions 2001-02 – lost 31-7, road, +3
➤Daniel Jones has been on a roller coaster in terms of his performance on bounce backs. Jones is 21-14 ATS in his career after a SU loss. He was 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in that spot last season and was 5-1-1 SU, 7-0 ATS after a SU loss in the year prior (2022).
The difference has been the offensive outcome. In his last 3 starts after a SU loss, Giants have scored 25 total points.
➤Daniel Jones is 5-1-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in his career vs. Washington, but 18-37 SU, 26-29 ATS against the rest of the NFL.
➤Same story. Daniel Jones was sacked five times in the opener, 2nd-most of any QB behind Deshaun Watson.
In NFL history, seven teams have allowed 70+ sacks. Giants did so last year, second-most all-time. Here is how those offensive lines performed the year after the historically bad season.
Four of six allowed 50+ sacks again, with all six teams allowing 35+ the next year.
Most Sacks Allowed by Team — Sacks Allowed Next Season
104 – 1986 Eagles –> 72
85 – 2023 Giants –> 5 in 1 game
78 – 1997 Cardinals –> 50
76 – 2002 Texans –> 36
72 – 2006 Raiders –> 41
72 – 1987 Eagles –> 56
71 – 2014 Jaguars –> 51
➤After a loss in his previous game, Brian Daboll is 13-5 ATS and he’s won 4 straight ATS in this spot, going 4-0 ATS with Tyrod Taylor, 7-4 ATS with Jones and 2-1 ATS with DeVito.
➤Daboll has faced Washington four times as coach of the Giants and is 4-0 ATS, covering the spread by 11 PPG, being listed as an underdog in all four games.
➤Winning, especially covering at home for Washington has been tough in recent history. Since 2003 they are 69-95-8 ATS (42.1%) at home, tied with the Raiders for the least profitable ATS mark in that span.
Of the 16 QBs to start multiple times at home in Washington for the franchise since 2003, only one is multiple games above .500 ATS – Alex Smith at 5-2 ATS.
As a home favorite, Washington is 25-45-3 ATS (36%) in that span, finishing above .500 ATS in a season 3 of 20 years.
The only Washington QB above .500 ATS as a home favorite since 2003 is Todd Collins at 1-0 ATS.
➤Three franchises in football have cemented themselves as teams who don’t perform their best with expectations at home early in the season. Last 20 years, the Titans, Browns and Washington are the three worst teams ATS as a home favorite within the first two weeks of the regular season.
Tennessee and Cleveland are 1-9 ATS
Washington is 3-10-1 ATS
➤Matthew Stafford is 5-8 ATS Weeks 1 & 2 since 2018, with Stafford/Sean McVay on a 2-game SU losing streak in early season games.
➤McVay was known as one of the hot coaches early on, starting his career 17-4 SU in September, going above .500 SU in all six seasons entering last year. Now, he’s lost three straight SU in September, all by 7 points or less.
➤McVay has enjoyed his games against divisional opponents, going 27-17-1 ATS in his career. Compared to 39-40-3 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
Last 20 years, McVay is 6th-best among all coaches vs. divisional opponents – he’s .500 ATS or better in all 7 seasons with Rams.
McVay vs. divisional opponents:
ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
SF: 5-10 ATS
➤In the first two weeks of the regular season, the Rams have been impressive on the road. They are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, with their only loss last week against the Lions.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 4-11 SU as underdogs.
➤Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 14 receptions in Week 1. Next closest was Isaiah Likely with 9. The record for receptions in the first two weeks of the season is Michael Thomas with 28 in 2018. Without Puka Nacua, Kupp would need 14 more grabs in this one to tie the record.
➤Kyler Murray has faced the Rams nine times in his career. He is 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS against them, losing four consecutive games SU and ATS dating back to 2021.
In his career, Murray has failed to cover the spread by 8.4 PPG vs. Rams. Against all teams not named the Rams, Murray is 34-23-1 ATS.
➤Murray has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST, he is 12-3 ATS, including 17-6 ATS playing in either EST or CST — covering the spread by 6 PPG — and only 18-24-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
➤Murray has struggled with the deep ball. 20+ yds downfield, he was 0-3 vs. the Bills. In 2023 he was 8-26 (30.8%) on his deep balls and in 2022 he was 12-45 (26.7%) … this was after finishing 35-71 (49%) on deep balls back in 2021.
Kyler Murray 20+ yds downfield
2022-24: 20-74 (27%), 2 TD, 7 INT
2021: 35-71 (49%), 9 TD, 3 INT
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Patrick Mahomes is 16-4 SU and 12-8 ATS in September. That 16-4 SU mark is the best of any month for Mahomes in terms of ML profitability.
➤Mahomes is 38-42-2 ATS (48%) career as a favorite of more than a FG. In all other spots, he is 24-8-1 ATS (75%).
KC moved from -3.5 to -6 this week vs. Bengals. Mahomes is just 10-13-2 ATS career when line moves 2+ pts toward his team.
➤The Chiefs own the NFL's longest ATS win streak dating back to last season at 7 games. Mahomes himself has an ATS streak of 6 games, which is also the highest of any QB currently.
➤After the Chiefs win and cover in their previous game, Mahomes is 45-12 SU, 32-24-1 ATS in his next game. When the spread is -7 or shorter, he is 22-13 ATS in that spot.
➤Chiefs will stay at home in Week 2 after beating the Ravens at home in Week 1. In the 2nd game or later of a homestand, Mahomes is 16-6 SU, but just 11-11 ATS. Mahomes is 14-3 SU in this spot on 7+ days rest and 5-0 SU on 10+ days rest.
➤Mahomes by time of kickoff …
PM 1 p.m. ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. ET slate: 47-33-1 ATS
➤Chiefs rolled in Week 1 and Andy Reid gets another win with extra time to prep …
Week 1: 16-6 SU, 13-9 ATS
Week 2 on, 8+ days rest: 60-27 SU, 49-37-1 ATS
When the rest comes early in the year, Reid's teams are great. In September or October, including Week 1, he is 38-14 SU when his teams get 8+ days to prepare.
One side of caution: Reid is 8-13 ATS in Week 2 over the last 20 years – 5-6 ATS with K.C. and 3-7 ATS with Philadelphia.
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 47-21 SU, good for the first (KC) and third-best (BAL) win percentage in that span.
➤Eight teams in Super Bowl history have gone for three-peat, they are combined 13 games below .500 ATS in that third season and none of the eight teams were 3-1 ATS or better in their teams' first four games that year.
The 2024 Chiefs are 1-0 SU/ATS and on their way to more history.
➤In games that Taylor Swift attends, the Chiefs are now 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS after their Week 1 win against the Ravens.
With KC 16-6 SU and 14-7-1 ATS since the start of last year – they are just 5-3 SU and ATS without Swift.
➤Joe Burrow is 8-11 SU vs. AFC North and 26-14-1 SU vs. all other divisions. He’s lost two consecutive games SU vs. teams outside the AFC North – he’s never lost three straight in his NFL career.
➤As an underdog of above 4 pts, Burrow is 10-2 ATS in his career. When he plays as that big of a dog with JaMarr Chase in the lineup, he’s 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS.
➤In 2022, Burrow completed 38% of his attempts 20+ yds downfield. That dipped to 33% in 2023 and in Week 1 he was 1-3 passing 20+ yds downfield.
➤Burrow bounceback?
Burow is 14-6-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 9-2-1 ATS in Sept/Oct and 10-3 ATS on the road.
Burrow is 8-2 ATS after a SU loss when scoring fewer than 20 pts
➤In the first two games of the regular season, Zac Taylor is 1-10 SU as a head coach, while Burrow is 1-8 SU in those games.
➤In Burrow’s NFL career, he is 36-23-1 ATS, but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season. He’s 2-7 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 34-16-1 ATS in game three or later. That 2-7 ATS mark is tied with Kirk Cousins for the worst mark of 60+ QBs since Burrow was drafted.
➤Burrow has had his success vs. some of the best QBs in the NFL to cherry pick a few. He’s 6-1 ATS vs. Mahomes, Allen and Brady, with his only ATS loss coming by 1 pt on road in KC in playoff game.
Mahomes has lost 25 total games in his career SU, Burrow, Josh Allen and Tom Brady are tied for the most wins vs. Mahomes with 3.
Mahomes is 2+ games under .500 SU vs. just 2 QBs: Burrow (1-3) and Goff (0-2)
➤Since 2002, the two teams with the most SU wins at home in September are the Seahawks at 32-7 SU and the Broncos at 32-10 SU.
The problem with Denver is they are just 3-6 SU in this spot since 2019.
➤Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 16-10 last four years and 47-29-1 since 2015 – all nine years .500 or better to the under at home.
➤In 17 seasons, Sean Payton's teams are 13-4 above .500 ATS, including .500 ATS or better as underdogs in 14 of 17 seasons.
When Payton’s teams are 'dogs in September or October, they are 29-12-1 ATS.
➤Now for the bad. Sean Payton is 4-12 ATS in Week 2 as a head coach, worst of 134 coaches last 20 years.
Payton hasn’t covered a Week 2 since 2016. His teams are 1-9 ATS in Week 2 since 2013.
➤The Steelers are 21-14-1 ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the 3rd-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions and Giants.
Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 41-27-3 ATS, covering by 1.6 PPG, 77% in 6pt teaser.
➤Pretty simple. Tomlin is 41-28-1 ATS as a road 'dog and 32-40-2 ATS as a road favorite.
When Tomlin opens -3 or higher on the road, he’s 21-35-2 ATS (38%).
➤The Steelers-Broncos lookahead line was 40.5, it is now south of 37/37.5 in the market. If the total closes at 36 or lower, it would be the Broncos lowest O/U in a home game since their 2012 playoff game against the Steelers that closed at 34.
➤Another week, another one-score win. Steelers beat the Falcons 18-10, making them 1-0 in one-score games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 32-11 SU in one-score games, best mark in NFL. They are 30-13 ATS in those games with their avg line being close to PK in those games.
➤Justin Fields will be making his 21st career road start. He has yet to close as a betting favorite.
As a 'dog of 3 or less on the road, Fields is 1-5 SU/ATS.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤It takes it out of you. Bears came back from 17 points down to beat and cover vs. Texans in Week 1. Teams who play on the road after a SU win in their previous game, coming back by 17+ pts, are 20-33 SU, 23-29-1 ATS the next week last 20 years.
When that team came back from 14+ down, they are 54-90 SU, 61-82-2 ATS when playing on the road in their next game – this works for the Bills as well this week.
➤Caleb Williams was the 19th quarterback since the merger to go No. 1 overall and start in Week 1 of his draft year. Those quarterbacks are now 4-14-1 SU and 6-13 ATS in that Week 1 game. Overall, No. 1 picks to start at QB are 5-22-1 SU and 8-20 ATS in the first start of their careers. The last No. 1 pick to win their first start before last Sunday was David Carr in 2002 – they are now 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS since 2003.
➤Caleb's 1st start didn't go so well. 11 QBs have had 25+ pass attempts and fewer than 100 pass yds in their first career start — here is the group to do it since 2000: Caleb, Tommy DeVito, Desmond Ridder and Brett Hundley.
How have those 27 QBs performed in their second start?
5-22 SU, 10-16-1 ATS
3-7 SU, 7-3 ATS since 2010
4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS since 2003
➤The Bears have only started 2-0 ATS once since 2006 – back in 2018 – also the last time the Bears finished a season above .500 ATS.
➤Bears entered Week 1 losing 17 consecutive games SU when trailing entering the fourth quarter. Their last win came on September 11, 2022, against Trey Lance and the 49ers.
Chicago broke the streak by beating the Titans in Week 1.
➤CJ Stroud has made 18 starts in his NFL career and he is 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-6 ATS as a favorite.
➤This will be Stroud’s second night primetime start for the Texans, he beat the Colts last year 23-19 in Indy as 1.5-pt favorites.
➤It’s not like the Bears have a great recent history playing under the lights of primetime, but for Houston, it’s one of the worst.
Over the last 20 years, they are 12-28-2 ATS (30%) in night games, the 3rd-least profitable franchise ATS in the NFL ahead of just the Bucs and Dolphins.
As a favorite of 3 or more in primetime, Texans are 3-10-1 ATS.
➤Texans won on the road in Week 1 after tons of hype in the offseason.
Houston was the third-biggest move for a team year-to-year to 20-1 or shorter to win it all.
If they start 2-0 SU, they would join the 2000 Rams as the only teams since 1977 to go from 150-1 to 20-1 or shorter to win it all in consecutive years and start 2-0 SU.
➤Rookie QBs are 25-57 SU (31%) on the road in primetime since 1970. When that game is played within the first four games of the regular season, they are 4-10 SU.
➤This isn’t Kirk Cousins’ first rodeo in Philadelphia.
Overall, Cousins is 7-4 ATS vs. Eagles, best of any opponent in his career, including 4-3 ATS in Philly.
If this game feels familiar, this is Cousins’ 3rd career game in Week 2 vs. Eagles, both came in Philadelphia and Cousins is 0-2 SU/ATS.
➤Jalen Hurts is 17-9-1 ATS at home in his NFL career. Since he was drafted, that is the 3rd-most profitable home ATS mark behind just Goff and Tua.
Hurts is 11-18-1 ATS playing either on the road or a neutral site.
➤As a home favorite, Hurts is 18-2 SU in his career, actually losing his last start as a home favorite in December last year vs. Cardinals. In September and October, Hurts is 7-0 SU as a home favorite, winning by 11.3 PPG.
➤Hurts has made 10 career starts at home in primetime/night game. He is 8-1-1 ATS, the best mark since he was drafted and 5th-most profitable mark of any QB last 20 years.
➤Eagles just played a neutral site game against the Packers and now play the next week against Falcons on MNF. Takes a good team to bounce back from that turnaround. Teams listed as a favorite after playing a neutral site game are 37-17 SU last 20 years and 17-29 SU as an underdog.
When those teams have 10 days rest or fewer, they are actually 24-17 SU in their next game, but 24-16-1 to the under – both the Packers and Eagles this week.
➤In Cousins' career, he has started 41 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 17-23-1 SU, 16-25 ATS. At night, he is 12-19 SU, 13-18 ATS.
Cousins is 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) in primetime in his last ten starts, but covering the spread has been issue: 2-6 ATS in his last 8 primetime starts.
Cousins has been the underdog in primetime 21 times. His teams are 5-15-1 SU, 8-13 ATS (4-13 SU, 6-11 ATS as a dog at night).
➤Cousins has also had his issues on Monday Night Football. In his career, Cousins is 3-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football, with his teams averaging 16.9 PPG, scoring 20+ in 4 of 13 games.
Cousins began his career 0-9 SU/ATS on MNF and has won 3 of his last 4 starts SU and ATS.
➤The under has now cashed in 7 consecutive starts by Kirk Cousins dating back to last season.
That is contrast to his career tendencies: The over is 83-66-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the most 5th-most profitable QB to the over in the last 20 years.
➤Can Cousins pull the upset? He’s 8-24 SU (25%) as an underdog of 4 points or more in his career, including 2-14 SU when the game is played at 4p ET or later and 1-6 SU at night as a dog of 4 points or more.
➤Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 58-33-2 SU (63.7%)
After 1p ET: 19-38 SU (33.3%)
➤Falcons-Eagles is the lone game this week where both teams are on extended rest. Here is some info on primetime unders and long rest when it comes to unders.
When both teams are on eight-plus days rest, the under is 108-55-1 (66%) since 2018. The under is .500 or better in 11 of 13 years.
Primetime unders have been cashing the past few seasons. Since 2019, they are hitting at a 59% clip by a point and a half per game.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Betting Systems
System: The Bounce Back. Teams coming off a double-digit loss in Week 1 are known to be profitable in Week 2, but extend this out to early in the season and have that team a bit undervalued on the road and you have a recipe for long term success.
Matches: Giants, Browns, Raiders
System: Early Season Upsets. This system is back again for Week 2. It went 4-3 SU in Week 1, all on underdogs, turning a profit. An early season divisional upsets system.
Matches: Bills, Giants, Cardinals
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: This system looks at teams who failed to cover the spread in Week 1 by 7 points or more and are again being doubted in Week 2 — which means they are being listed as an underdog after that bad performance a week ago.
Matches: Giants, Browns, Panthers, Raiders, Bengals, Falcons
System: One thing history has taught us about Week 1 is that not all scoring is consistent and don't believe everything you just saw. Since 2005, teams that scored 28 or more points in Week 1, facing a team who didn't, have gone 43-70-4 ATS (38%) in Week 2 over the last 20 years.
Matches: Bills, Bucs, Packers, Cardinals, Texans, Eagles
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: Go Low. In Week 2, totals of 40 or less are 41-19-3 to the under. Those same totals are just .500 in Week 1 over that span. It's low, but just not low enough.
Matches: Check current lines
System: Since 2019, teams to open up on the road in Week 1 and then play again on the road in Week 2 have been inflated ATS, they are 36-17-2 ATS, covering by 3 PPG. We have four matches in 2024, see if the trend continues.
Matches: Steelers, Rams, Jets, Raiders
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: Bet dogs with low totals — especially early in the season. Last year they were 26-12-2 ATS and have been above .500 ATS in six straight seasons. They are just 1-2 to start the 2024 season.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Unders and wind have historically been a perfect marriage. In the NFL, unders are hitting at a 57.3% clip in "high wind" games based on the strength at kickoff. These such games went 2-2 in Week 1, 30-11-2 to the under last season and 79-33-2 (70.5%) the last two seasons.
Matches: Check current weather.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: After teams get blown out, they have historically been good bets against the first half spread in their next game. Those teams are 41-26-3 1H ATS in the first four games of the regular season, too.
Matches: Panthers, Giants
