NFL Week 2 Pool Picks Advice, Strategy for Survivor & Pick’em

As we focus on making NFL Week 2 picks in football contests, it's important to remember that we refer to this as "Overreaction Week." This week presents a valuable opportunity to capitalize on the broad reactions that are often shaped by just one week's results.

At PoolGenius, we focus on finding value against the competition, and the ability to zig when others are zagging is essential to maximizing your chances in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.

This article highlights three strategies for Week 2 picks, whether you're selecting a team in your survivor pool, deciding how to allocate points in a football confidence pool, or identifying the upset picks that maximize your chances of winning a weekly NFL contest.

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Free Week 2 Football Pool Picks

Before we dive into this week's analysis, just a quick reminder that you can access all of PoolGenius' football pool picks and tools for free during NFL Week 2, along with some great season-long discounts, courtesy of Action Network.

Week 2 NFL Survivor Picks: Use Ravens Now or Save Them?

The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 2 as the biggest favorite (-9.5) against the Raiders and are already a popular pick, with 34% of players eyeing them in early data. The real question is whether using the Ravens now will leave you with tougher decisions later when options may be weaker and less appealing.

Baltimore has a fair amount of future value, ranking fourth in our estimates, and that value is pretty consistent across pool sizes since two of their high-value matchups are coming mid-season. This week, seven other teams are favored by 6 to 7 points, all with market win odds of 70% or higher. Each of these teams comes with a fraction of Baltimore's current popularity.

In Week 6, Baltimore is projected as the biggest favorite, playing Washington at home. Only one other team (Cincinnati vs. NY Giants) is projected to have win odds above 70%, with three others just below that line. In Week 9, Baltimore again projects as the biggest favorite (vs. Denver), with only two other teams over 70% (Cincinnati vs. Las Vegas, Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay).

Strategically, you can use Baltimore now, while they are popular and solid alternatives are available, or you can save them for later weeks when they project as a bigger favorite, with fewer and riskier alternatives. Additionally, Baltimore’s popularity will likely decrease as many players will have already used them here in Week 2.

We recommend saving Baltimore, as Week 2 isn't where you win survivor pools, and they will likely be a stronger pick in upcoming weeks.

Week 2 NFL Pick'em & Confidence Pool Picks: Why the Colts Are a Value Favorite

In most pools, the general public tends to be influenced by team reputation and recency bias or may not be fully informed about recent news and betting markets.

A week ago, Green Bay was favored by 4.5 points at home over the Colts. However, Packers QB Jordan Love suffered a knee injury, and the team now appears set to rely on Malik Willis until Love returns. While Willis' performance is uncertain, his past suggests a significant downgrade. In three starts in 2022 and limited action elsewhere, he completed only 52% of his passes, took a sack on 18% of dropbacks, and has yet to throw a touchdown in 69 attempts.

As a result, the line has shifted, with the Colts now favored by 3.5 points. Although 60% of the public is picking the Colts to win, that’s still a lower rate than similar favorites this week. The four other teams favored by 3 to 3.5 points are being picked by 77% of the public on average. This makes the Colts a strong value pick, allowing you to make riskier upset picks elsewhere.

Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product to see our specific recommendations for other value picks in your pool.

Weekly Pool Prize Strategy for Week 2: Overreaction Upset Values Abound

Over the last decade, underdogs are 97-59-1 in Week 2 straight up (38%) and an impressive 87-65-5 ATS (57%).

We believe there’s a reason underdogs tend to perform well in Week 2, likely tied to public overreaction to Week 1 outcomes. It's important to watch for teams that either underperformed or overperformed relative to their yardage gains, often due to rare events like defensive or special teams plays, turnovers, or missed field goals.

For example, as we discussed in more detail here, Week 2 underdogs who gained more than 19.5 yards per point scored in Week 1 (they had a lot of yards relative to the points scored in the first game), went 29-11-2 ATS in Week 2 from 2014-2023.

We observe similar trends for favorites who overperformed expectations, either scoring more points than their yardage would suggest or allowing fewer points than expected. These types of favorites tend to perform even worse than the Week 2 average, where favorites already have a lower-than-average rate of covering the spread.

This week presents several such opportunities. Denver, a 3-point underdog against Pittsburgh, offers value, as the public is heavily backing the Steelers, with 78% picking them after last week's win. However, Pittsburgh's victory relied on a +3 turnover margin and several long field goals, which could indicate an overperformance.

The Giants are another underdog offering strong value, and we've already seen line movement in their favor. They were Week 1’s biggest underperformer in points scored relative to yards, putting up just 6 points on 240 yards. While that yardage isn’t impressive, it was far from the worst in Week 1. Daniel Jones is facing heavy criticism, and with only 23% of the public picking the Giants, their line has moved to +1.5 at some books.

These are just two examples of value upsets where Week 1 overreactions could create leverage in weekly pools. Unpopular picks like these can be key to winning, as taking a contrarian stance can yield big rewards when it hits, even if it feels risky against prevailing narratives.

Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024

Maximizing your chances to win NFL survivor and football pick'em pools is all about stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, lies in the vast amount of data and complex calculations required, which most players simply don't have the time, expertise, or interest to manage.
At PoolGenius, we take care of all the data collection and analysis to help you compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Thanks to our partnership with Action Network, you can access a no-obligation free trial and exclusive season discounts using the links below: