Week 2 in the NFL is Overreaction Week.
We waited six long months for any semblance of NFL football, opened the fire hose last weekend, and now it's nigh impossible to not drown ourselves in precious one-game samples and overreact to everything. And for bettors, that typically creates value on the other side of the overreaction.
Check out some of these Week 2 trends from BetLabs and see if you notice a theme:
- 0-1 underdogs vs. a favorite that was a Week 1 'dog: 57-29-2 ATS (66%)
- Underdogs in winless matchups: 50-25 ATS (67%)
- 3-to-6-point 'dogs off a failed cover since 2014: 30-11-1 ATS (73%)
- Teams off a double-digit Week 1 loss vs. an opponent not like that since 2012: 38-21-4 ATS (64%)
Did you spot the theme? It's overreactions. It's so, so hard to back a team we've only seen once when that team got trounced that one time out. But sometimes as bettors, we have to swallow hard and do it anyway.
Let's get to the Week 2 picks. I've got four plays at a full unit, plus five long shots at half a unit each and a Week 3 Lookahead.
NFL Week 2 Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| 49ers vs. Vikings |
| Buccaneers vs. Lions |
| Chargers vs. Panthers |
| Saints vs. Cowboys |
| Raiders vs. Ravens |
| Rams vs. Cardinals |
| Steelers vs. Broncos |
| Bengals vs. Chiefs |
| Bears vs. Texans |
| Week 3 Lookahead Pick |
49ers vs. Vikings Picks: San Francisco's Offense Will Roll
Well, so much for that Super Bowl loser hangover. Monday night was a great reminder that the 49ers are every bit as good as the Chiefs. Even without Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco never missed a bit, scoring on eight straight possessions against a great Jets defense to roll to victory.
The 49ers beat a lot of teams last season — but the Vikings were not one of them. Minnesota shocked a shorthanded Niners team missing both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, but that was a rare success for the Vikings against a top offense.
Brian Flores has done an awesome job with this Vikings defense, and his unit is especially great against bad quarterbacks and subpar offenses — like the Giants last week. But against teams with an offense in the top half of the league last season, the Vikings went just 2-7 and the ones were against early-season Jordan Love before breaking out, plus those shorthanded 49ers.
In other words, Flores's defense has yet to beat an above-average offense, let alone a fine-tuned machine like these 49ers. The Vikings allowed an average of 30 PPG in those seven losses to good offenses, compared to under 16 PPG allowed in their other games.
The 49ers won 14 games last season and scored 27 or more in all but one of those wins. This is simply a proxy for a 49ers win then, with San Francisco averaging 32.8 PPG in those wins with at least 30 points in 10 of the 14 and another again Monday night. In fact, in the last 17 games with a healthy Trent Williams, the 49ers are 16-1 with 30+ points in 13-of-17.
The suppressed total on this game is buying us value on the Niners team total. Grab the over 25.5, and play over 29.5 at +210 (DraftKings) as an escalator since 30 has been so common. You can even sprinkle over 33.5 at +425 if you like, with the Niners hitting 34 in almost half of their 14 wins last season.
Bucs vs. Lions Over/Under: Fade Week 2's Largest Total
This is the highest total on the board this week, and I think it's an overreaction.
This is a playoff rematch of what ended up a surprisingly competitive game that was tied heading into the fourth quarter before the Lions pulled away to win 31-23. Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards, three scores, and two interceptions — or as they call it in the streets, he went Full Baker.
Memories of that shootout and a flurry of injuries to the Bucs secondary pushed this total from 48.5 at open to 51.5, above the key number and most common NFL total of 51, and they've pushed it too far.
Yes, the Bucs are missing bodies. Antoine Winfield Jr. is a big loss at safety, and Tampa Bay could be without three of its corners, a real cluster injury problem. But the Bucs do still have Jamel Dean to deal with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Detroit doesn't actually have a ton of weapons to throw at the Bucs.
There are any number of paths to an under here.
The Bucs offense looked great against an awful Washington secondary with the help of some outlier third-down conversion luck, but let's see how it holds up on the road against a much better Lions defense that should totally shut down this anemic run game. As for the Lions, Jared Goff is always a risk against all that Todd Bowles blitzing and aggression.
This feels less like a shootout and more like a game where Dan Campbell knows Mayfield and a banged-up defense can't beat Detroit if the Lions just bleed the clock and don't screw this up. That sounds more like a boring 20-6 victory with lots of long, slow drives and an endless barrage of five- and seven-yard passes marching down the field and grinding the clock down.
In fact, we got exactly that game too last season. The Lions and Bucs met in the regular season too and Detroit won 20-6, chewing up 37 minutes of possession. That game had a total at 43.5, and I honestly think this one should be much closer to that.
Todd Bowles road unders are 31-19 (62%), and both Dan Campbell (67%) and Jared Goff (65%) have been profitable to the under with totals at 51 or above.
Be sure to grab 51.5 if you can and stay above that key number. We're going under.
Rams vs. Lions Prop: All Cooper Kupp, All the Time
The Rams are already up against it. Los Angeles was missing its two starting tackles heading into Week 1, then lots its swing tackle along with guard Steve Avila to injury, plus star sophomore WR Puka Nacua.
Our season-long Rams fade is already looking tasty — they're underdogs to the Cardinals!! — but this game is expected to be a shootout, with neither team offering much defense.
Despite the lack of a line, Matt Stafford was absolutely dealing on Sunday night. He pulled out the whole arsenal, and he directed most of it to Cooper Kupp, to the tune of 14 catches for 110 yards and a score on a whopping 21 targets.
That looked like 2021 OPOY winner Cooper Kupp, healthy and dominating targets, and can you blame the Rams? They're already down Nacua and Tyler Higbee, so the other Stafford targets out there are names like Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell, and Colby Parkinson.
Kupp is going to get fed targets as many as he can handle, and this is a bad number that books will have to adjust up in future weeks until Nacua gets back. In 2021, Kupp had at least seven receptions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">catches in all but two of his games, a remarkable floor that puts us one catch away from cashing.
Kupp averaged 8.5 receptions a game that season and hit double digits in five games (29%), so we'll play 10+ catches as an escalator too. I played the over 7.5 at plus odds and got 10+ at +320.
These lines have been hit hard since I logged them in the Action App on Wednesday, so be sure to shop around and grab the lines you can find, and follow me in the Action App with a PRO subscription to get instant notifications to snag these odds before they disappear.
Steelers vs. Broncos Over/Under Pick
There's one clear standout unit in this game, and it's obviously Pittsburgh's defense.
The defense and kicking game alone got the Steelers the win in Week 1 against Kirk Cousins, and now they're rewarded with a game against rookie Bo Nix, who barely looked like an NFL quarterback in his debut, spraying interceptable passes all over the place. Advantage: Steel Curtain.
Not that Pittsburgh's offense is any more inspiring. Looks like no revenge game for Russell Wilson, but Justin Fields didn't attempt a single pass over the middle of the field Sunday and, remember, this offense hasn't scored a touchdown.
Mike Tomlin road unders in September and October are 67% for his career, by far the most profitable road under coach in our system. Week 2 totals at 40 or below are 46-21-3 to the under, a nice 69% hit rate that tells us we're not underreacting to bad offense early — when teams can't score, we usually know it quickly.
Look, you know you want the under here, I don't have to convince you of that. The only real question is whether it's still playable at 36.5, and the data says yes.
Since November 2019, games at 37 or below are 34-12-1 to the under, a 74% hit rate! And even though we missed the key number of 37, only 6-of-47 games in that range even fell within 2.5 points of this number, with none exactly on 37.
Translation: once bettors know a total should go under like Steelers-Broncos, books simply cannot set the line low enough.
Week 2 Long Shots
Depending on where the lines land, it looks like we might end up with seven games at around 6-or-6.5-point lines on Sunday, and that means Week 2 is masquerading as one giant teaser trap.
Bettors love to tease a 6-or-6.5 total down to basically a coin-flip just-win situation, but that spot can be dangerous! Road favorites of 6 or 6.5 points are 145-184-10 ATS over the last couple decades, covering just 46% of the time — and that includes 0-2 already this season, with both Arizona and Denver covering by half a point as dogs.
This is a double whammy situation. Underdogs are already priced too long because of the Week 1 overreactions, and now books are bumping it even further for teaser protection. That means value on these underdogs, and the inflated line means even more value on underdog moneylines.
It turns out, over one third of these 6-or-6.5-point road underdogs win outright, a 15% ROI on the moneyline over the past couple decades. That number doubles to over 30% ROI for just 6.5-point 'dogs.
Let's get aggressive and hunt three moneyline underdogs right in that range.
Chargers vs. Panthers Parlay: How To Back Carolina
I am ready to get hurt again.
Panthers Island was ugly in Week 1, taking water before the games had barely even begun and falling down 30-0 before we even hit halftime. There are no silver linings from Week 1. It was awful.
That means the Panthers are at an all-time low in value and playing a Chargers team that looked kinda sorta competent in a win against the lowly Raiders. But with LA favored by 6.5 on the road, that implies the Chargers are a full nine points better than Carolina on a neutral field — and there's just no way the Chargers are nine points better than any NFL team right now.
You know the Panthers aren't good yet, but are we really sold on the Chargers because they handed it off a bunch and benefited from a bunch of prehistoric Raiders fourth-down decisions in a close game late?
The Panthers fit a bunch of those ATS trends at the top of the article, but if this one's close, let's play the moneyline and go for the kill. And if the Panthers do win somehow, how do they get there?
Feels like it has to be an under. Carolina isn't ready to win a shootout, but could the Panthers steal an ugly, low-scoring game where the Chargers run the ball all day and shorten the game but maybe Carolina gets a big special teams play or some turnover luck?
Week 2 totals at 40 or below are 69% to the under, and games with winds of 10+ MPH the last four seasons are 64% to the under.
If Carolina is alive enough to cover, the Panthers can win ugly, and if they win ugly, it'll likely need to go under in a low-scoring game.
Remember the old children's book If You Give a Mouse a Cookie? I've got one toe left on Panthers Island, and if they're going to keep us there, we're going all in — Panthers win outright plus under 39.5 SGP at +492.
Saints vs. Cowboys Pick: Dallas Will Roll
We're breaking our beware-of-teaser trends here, but only by going all the way the other direction.
Our trends suggest value on the Saints here, but I actually think books are underreacting to the Cowboys. We spent all summer burying Dallas for it's terrible offseason, but those Cowboys problems are postseason issues. This team remains a tremendous frontrunner and looked the part against the Browns in Week 1.
Of course, both teams won big in Week 1, but are you more impressed by the team that dominated on the road against a Browns defense that was elite last year or by the home Saints that beat up on Bryce Young and a debut coach?
The Saints will never look this good again. Their bottom-five offensive line may have held up against the Panthers, but Micah Parsons and this Mike Zimmer defense are another challenge entirely. We fade Dennis Allen after a win, and we back Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott as big home favorites.
This is the exact sort of team the Cowboys blow out. Last season, Dallas won six of its eight home games by at least 20 points, and they added three more 20+ wins on the road.
If you think the Saints are live, by all means, follow the trends and play the moneyline.
If you like the Cowboys, you should love the Cowboys. No half measures: Dallas by 20+ at +450.
Raiders vs. Ravens Parlay: Betting Derrick Henry Props
Our highest line of the week comes in Baltimore, where the Ravens are near double-digit favorites against the Raiders. Baltimore is rested and expected to take care of Las Vegas with ease, especially after the Raiders' run defense was gashed by the Chargers in the opener.
Derrick Henry had a pretty quiet debut for the Ravens with 13 carries for just 46 yards, but that's no real surprise with Baltimore trailing much of the game. Henry has long been one of the most game-script dependent players in the NFL. When his teams are ahead, Henry pounds opponents into oblivion. From behind, not so much.
Henry has 18 games in his career with at least 100 rushing yards and two scores — but 16 of those 18 games came in wins.
That means Henry has hit 100/2 in an impressive 16-of-66 wins for his career. That's 24.3%, meaning almost one-in-four times Henry's team wins, he's in the endzone multiple times with a hundo.
We're getting a discount on this line because of the comments about Henry's role being lower in Baltimore this week, but this is the perfect spot to back Henry as big home favorites in a game where the Ravens can save Lamar Jackson a few hits and let King Henry carry the day.
At +800 and an implied 11%, we're getting more than 2x on our SGP. Let's hope Henry closes games just as well in Baltimore as he did in Tennessee.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Moneyline Pick
The Bengals are 0-1 again, Joe Burrow may still be playing hurt, Ja'Marr Chase wasn't up to pair after missing training camp, and Tee Higgins is still a question mark.
Cincinnati is reeling after a damaging week 1 loss to the Patriots, but I'm less worried after a rewatch. Burrow and Chase certainly had some rust, but Cincinnati got super unlucky and its defense couldn't get off the field — and even so, the Bengals had the ball and a chance to drive for the win with three minutes left.
Everyone's already given up on the Bengals, but we always give Burrow a shot as an underdog. He's 15-3 ATS as a 'dog including the postseason, and he's won eight of his 11 outright with an absurd 106% ROI to the moneyline in those games.
And lest we forget, Burrow and the Bengals have been especially good against these Chiefs. All four meetings have ended within a field goal and Burrow is 3-1 both ATS and SU against Patrick Mahomes with wins as a 2.5-, 4- and 7-point underdog.
Back to Burrowhead we go! Let's see if Joe Cool is still in there.
Bears vs. Texans Moneyline Bet
I had a rough Week 1, and anyone can have a tough Sunday betting the NFL, which often leaves bettors over-invested in the primetime Sunday and Monday night games.
This week, that will look especially tempting for bettors with the Texans and Eagles healthy 6.5-point home favorites against the Bears and Falcons, respectively, with two quarterbacks that looked abysmal in Week 1. You better believe there will be a slew of teasers just hoping to lock in Houston and Philly wins.
That makes my spidey senses tingle and wonder which of those teams could get upset. I don't think it's the Eagles, at home with extra rest against a statuesque Kirk Cousins telegraphing his passes and 3-10 SU on Monday night in his career.
But it might be the Texans. I rate the Bears and Texans relatively even, both fairly average teams on offense and defense, with Houston's offense the one more standout unit — but not by enough to be 6.5-point favorites. Chicago's defense looks like the real deal and can give the offense a chance, and the Bears' tackles can hold their own against Houston's pass rush.
That sets up a delicious narrative flip for media darling C.J. Stroud, who currently can't do anything wrong, and rookie Caleb Williams, apparently already a bust after one game. What if Stroud struggles in a big spot against a tough, aggressive defense — and what if Williams shows up in primetime against a beatable set of corners?
At +240, the Bears are under 30% implied to win this one. How about a 2-0 start and a big Caleb Williams game to juice the Second City and get everyone talking on Monday morning?
Week 3 Lookahead: Chiefs -4 at Falcons
I'm not sure I'll pick a quicker Lookahead all season.
This is a Sunday night primetime game, which means we're getting back-to-back primetime Kirk Cousins games in a six-day span.
Cousins was an absolute disaster in his debut for the Falcons. He was a complete statue in the pocket, so unable to move that Atlanta was telegraphing its run-pass decisions with pistol and shotgun formations and unable to put Cousins in playaction or under center where he thrives.
I think this could get ugly for Cousins. He's 3-10 ATS and SU on Monday Night Football, so it could go poorly Monday night in Philadelphia. If it does, don't be surprised if this line is pushing six or seven by kickoff a week later — and maybe even some rumblings about Michael Penix Jr. getting some run.
Hey, you know a team that performs well in primetime with a good defense and a non-statuesque QB that's also the best one on earth? Yeah, we're backing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on this shockingly low line while it's still there.
