NFL Week 2 Picks for Our Free-to-Play Taylor Swift Contest: Bengals vs. Chiefs Spread, More

After last weekend, it really feels like fall is here. I spent my entire Sunday watching football clips of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce at the US Open. OK … OK … I also watched A LOT of football and that’s why we’re here — combining my love for football and betting with my love for Taylor Swift into a fun game with a chance to win tickets to the Eras Tour in Vancouver.

If you joined our game last week, welcome back! You may want to skip ahead a bit to last week’s recap, but for anyone new let’s go over Tix Pick 6.

I know All Too Well how unwelcoming the sports world can be for newcomers and it doesn’t help when you have a bunch of boys having meltdowns over the league embracing Taylor Swift and the Swifties. So while they’re spending hours meticulously managing six fantasy teams or crafting the perfect seven-leg parlay, I wanted the Swifties to have a fun way to watch the game and learn more about football and sports betting.

And that’s where Tix Pick 6 comes in. Participants can win up to 13 entries a week for the grand prize drawing by answering six questions related to the Chiefs game and Taylor Swift. There are still nine weeks left, which means you have a chance to get up to 117 entries in the drawing.

For a detailed explanation of how to play our Eras Tour tickets NFL picks contest, click here! 

Last Week: Ravens vs. Chiefs Week 1 Recap

Before diving into this week’s picks, let’s do a quick recap of last week’s game, in Taylor terms of course. (Pay attention … this section will have the answer to the bonus!)

• Will a Taylor song be played going into/out of commercial?No
  • Compared to last year and much to my dismay, the broadcast really toned down the Taylor show. But at least we got a cute moment of Tay and Travis being So High School and doing some Eras Tour dance moves after a big catch. 
• Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift?Ed & Donna Kelce
  • It’s always fun seeing who Taylor will show up to the game with — from what I saw last week, it was mostly Travis’ family and friends. But you never know who could join her each week!
• Who will cover the spread?Chiefs -3
  • I took Baltimore +3 and wow … the end of that game was Death By A Thousand Cuts. All You Had To Do Was Stay … in bounds. Baltimore missed tying the game as time expired by a literal toe and lost by 7 points. 
• Will the total points scored be over or under 46.5? Over 46.5 (47)
  • Losing by half a point makes it easy to say Would’ve Could’ve Should’ve but that’s just how it goes sometimes. 
• Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?No
  • I Should’ve Said No … but I just couldn’t do it! The reality is, he won’t score a touchdown in every game. In fact last year, he only scored in a third of the regular-season games he played in. But that won’t stop me from answering yes most weeks. 
• Will Travis Kelce go over or under 56.5 receiving yards?Under (34)
  • Travis had three catches for 34 yards. Some weeks the game plan won’t revolve around Travis and that’s okay! 
• Bonus! How many song references were in the preview article? 5
  • Most of you got this so thanks for reading last week’s preview — and thanks for reading this week!

Let’s get into this week’s game! This is truly a game for the girls as the Chiefs are welcoming Joe Burrow and the Bengals to Arrowhead. What a treat! 

Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift this week?

We’ll likely never know at the time we open the game up each week whether or not Taylor will be there. In the event that she’s not there, these picks would automatically be graded as a win!

I wouldn’t pick Jason or Kylie Kelce knowing that Monday Night Football is in Philly this week. I added Ross Travis as an option and he is one of my picks. Ross traveled to almost every Eras Tour show that Travis did and was in the suite last week. I think I’ll also take Ed Kelce as a fairly safe play.

Will the broadcast mention or show Taylor Swift in the first two minutes of the game?

If you say yes, you have until there’s 13:00 left on the clock in the first quarter for a Taylor appearance or reference. This one is tricky because we won’t know who is starting with the ball until the coin toss. If the Chiefs win the coin toss, they’ll likely choose to take the ball in the second half, but the Bengals don’t automatically defer every time they win the coin toss.

Because of that, I’m going to say no Taylor in the first two minutes.

Pick 1: The Spread — Chiefs -5.5 or Bengals +5.5

Next, we’re making a pick against the spread (ATS). What’s a spread? I got you! The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers almost like a “handicap.” It’s basically the expected final score difference. Teams with a + number are the underdog, and a – number means they’re the favorite.

So for Week 2, the Chiefs are the favorite and need to win by 5.5 points to cover the spread. You can't score a half-point in the NFL, so this means that the Chiefs really need to win by 6 points. The Bengals are the underdog and need to lose by less than 5.5 points to cover the spread (aka lose by 5 or fewer points).

Cincinnati lost by 6 as favorites to my Patriots last week. I was expecting the worst and yet I was pleasantly surprised, in part because the Bengals beat themselves with multiple turnovers.

Now if I’m just going with my gut, I’m going with the Chiefs because I can’t fathom the Chiefs only beating the Bengals by 6 after the Patriots did just that. The Chiefs are a far superior team to the Patriots (oh my god that was so painful to say), BUT the fun thing about working at Action is that I never just have to go with my gut. There’s a lot of data and insight from our experts.

So a couple thoughts for the week:

• In games that Taylor Swift attends, the Chiefs are now 11-3 SU (straight up) and 9-4-1 ATS (against the spread) after their Week 1 win against the Ravens.
• Bengals quarterback, Joe Burrow, is 2-7 ATS in the first two games of the year and he’s coming off a rare wrist injury that is likely to impact his game.

Despite that, a lot of our experts are feeling the Bengals +6. Simon Hunter broke it down Tuesday on The Favorites if you’re interested in hearing more.

But I’m going with my gut (and some data) and backing the Chiefs -6.

Pick 2: The Total — Over 47.5 or Under 47.5

The total is referring to the total combined points scored by both teams and you’ll decide whether you think it’ll be over or under the number the oddsmakers set. The total for this game is 47.5. You’ll pick Over 47.5, meaning both teams combine for at least 48 points, or Under 47.5, meaning that the combined score at the end of the game is 47 or fewer points.

This one is a tough one. In betting, there are the sharps, the professionals, and then there's the public, us normal people. Sharps are leaning towards the under and the public like the over. This all comes down to what you want to do. I'm going to go with Under 47.5

Picks 3 & 4: Travis Kelce props

Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?

Don’t Blame Me if I’m wrong but I’m saying yes again. For the purpose of this game, I want to root for this and sometimes betting can just be for fun! And if I’ve learned anything from my last four years working here, it sucks betting against what you actually want to happen.

Will Travis Kelce go over or under 5.5 receptions?

Last week, we did a receiving yards prop, but this week we’re going to go with receptions. This is just how many catches Travis has in the game.

Will he go over or under 5.5 receptions? I’m sure you’re thinking… how can someone have half a reception? Well, they can’t. You’ll take the over if you think he’ll get 6 or more receptions, and the under if you think he’ll have 5 or less.

If you were to look at the odds at a sportsbook, you would see that the oddsmakers think he’ll go under his prop. Our Director of Predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, also known as The Oddsmaker, does all sorts of projections for games, including player props. Right now, he’s projecting Travis to have 5.2 receptions. This can change throughout the week so make sure you check in if you’re really going back and forth and want to listen to The Oddsmaker.

I always listen to The Oddsmaker so unless anything changes, I’m taking the under.

Final Thoughts

I just know I’m going to be feeling So High School watching these two on my screen again this football season. I hope you’ll have some fun playing along with me over the next ten weeks. As a reminder, here are my picks for the week:

• Who will be in the suite with Taylor Swift this week? Ross Travis & Ed Kelce
• Will the broadcast mention or show Taylor Swift in the first two minutes of the game? No
• Spread: Chiefs -5.5
• Total: Check back later this week!
• Will Travis Kelce score a TD? Yes
• Will Travis Kelce go over or under 5.5 receptions? Under

As a reminder, I’ll be updating this article throughout the week in case anything comes up that might affect your picks. If you’ve already submitted your picks but want to change them, you can do so by canceling your submission and resubmitting them.

I had a lot of fun watching last week with my Swiftie bestie who played along, so I hope you can have some fun with it too. Enjoy watching Taylor the game on Sunday … 1..2..3..LGB!