Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, so it’s time to overreact. With just one data point to adjust our expectations for teams, it’s essential to stay measured. It’s only Week 2, and teams will evolve throughout the season. That said, there's value on the board, so let's get to my NFL Week 2 picks.
Securing closing line value is the only way to consistently beat the NFL market on sides and totals, and we’re looking to lock in plays with this column before significant line moves occur when limits increase later in the week.
Last week, I went 3-4 on my picks in this column for -1.4 units. We have a long season ahead, and I’m confident we’ll get that turned around. Fair warning, though — we will be backing some ugly 'dogs this season, starting on Sunday. Let’s turn the page to Week 2 and break down my passes, leans and plays for the upcoming slate.
NFL Week 2 Picks, Predictions
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 2 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Bills vs. Dolphins
Along with Chris Raybon and Brandon Anderson, I bet the under in this game when lines opened on Sunday evening. Unfortunately, the line has moved down two points from 51 to 49. Over the past decade, 6.6% of games have ended with 50 or 51 points, so you’re missing out on quite a bit of value at this point.
The Bills will look to establish the run game on Thursday night, and Joe Brady led a Buffalo offense that ranked second in rush play rate after Week 11 last season. In Week 1, Buffalo had a 47% neutral pass play rate, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. Josh Allen had four pass attempts at halftime. That dependency on the ground game is inefficient for the Buffalo offense and boosts the under by keeping Tua Tagovailoa off the field.
Better days are ahead for the Miami offense after a disjointed Week 1 effort, but I have serious concerns about the Dolphins’ offensive line moving forward. The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams in free agency, while Isaiah Wynn is on the PUP list, leaving the team with an entirely new interior on the offensive line. That showed on Sunday as Dolphins running backs averaged just 2.8 YPC.
The total for this game could move depending on how the weather report changes, so don’t feel pressured to lock it in at 49 now. Before kickoff, I’ll update this section to offer an official recommendation depending on where the total is poised to close.
Verdict: Bet Under 50 or Higher
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Passes
Chargers vs. Panthers
The Panthers were a complete dumpster fire in Week 1 and never stood a chance. Bryce Young had a dreadful 26.7% off-target throw rate — the league average in 2023 was 11.1%. He completed just 43.3% of his passes. Meanwhile, the defense allowed the Saints to register an EPA/play rate that would have led the NFL last season.
All that said — should the Chargers really be laying nearly a touchdown on the road? Justin Herbert averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt last week (24th) and the lack of skill position talent will continue to be an issue. Carolina’s defense looked awful last week and lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown, but the Chargers offense isn’t built to hang a crooked number.
Models will show value on the Panthers all season, like last year. Where is the bottom?
Verdict: Pass
Saints vs. Cowboys
There were some real encouraging signs from the Saints in Week 1. Derek Carr used play action on 39.1% of his dropbacks, his highest rate since joining the team, and the Saints used motion on a league-high 84.6% of dropbacks. Klint Kubiak’s modernization of the offense was realized in full force as Carr had his best game in years.
The difficulty ratchets up this week on the road against a Cowboys defense that pressured Deshaun Watson on 42.9% of dropbacks last week. Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning held up surprisingly well as the Saints allowed Carr to be pressured on just three dropbacks. Can they do the same against Micah Parsons and arguably the best front seven in football?
The Cowboys lost tight end Jake Ferguson to a knee injury on Sunday, but he hasn’t yet been ruled out for this week. His status is essential as the Dallas offense is almost a one-man show with CeeDee Lamb. Dallas will deploy him creatively to help him create separation, but Dennis Allen is a quality defensive coach and will surely shade coverage in his direction.
Dennis Allen-led teams are just 5-16-2 ATS (24%) coming off a straight-up win, according to Evan Abrams, and I can’t fault you for buying Dallas here. However, I still have questions about the Cowboys roster, and we’re not exactly getting great value on this spread. I’d be interested in a teaser with Dallas if this hits 7, but it’s a pass for now.
Verdict: Pass
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Before the season, I bought the Seahawks over 7.5 wins to make the playoffs, and while Week 1 was sloppy, to say the least, I’m still high on this team long-term. The Patriots are also in an obvious sell-high spot following their big upset win over the Bengals. This is still a team with a highly problematic offensive line and one quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett.
Still, I can’t lay 3.5 points on the road with Geno Smith against a stout Patriots defense. The under got hit hard in this game following Week 1, with the total dropping from 41 to 38 points, and while I agree with the move, the value is likely gone on that total. Seattle is the better team, and I’m higher on Mike Macdonald than Jerod Mayo in this matchup of first-year head coaches, but I don’t see any betting value here.
Verdict: Pass
Giants vs. Commanders
The over has taken money in this game, which makes perfect sense, given how bad both defenses looked last week. The Commanders created havoc with their defensive line, but the secondary was putrid. The Giants’ Dexter Lawrence was incredible, earning the best PFF grade of any interior defensive lineman in Week 1, but the rest of the unit was horrific. Thanks to these defenses, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold ranked first and second in EPA+CPOE.
This week, we should see better passing success for the Giants after Daniel Jones struggled against a Brian Flores blitz barrage. I was encouraged by Jayden Daniels’ debut, particularly with his scrambling ability. I’d be intrigued to see where Malik Nabers’ props open up this week, as this is a matchup he should crush in.
From a side and total perspective, this game is a pass for me, with two teams in the bottom four in my power ratings. Don’t be shocked if we get a shootout here, though.
Verdict: Pass
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Rams nearly pulled off the road win over the Lions on Sunday Night Football, but they’re facing monumental injury issues. Wide receiver Puka Nacua will miss a handful of games, and there are cluster injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp can deliver magic, and Sean McVay is a brilliant coach, but that may not be enough to overcome their injury woes.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, got steamrolled by Josh Allen in Week 1. Kyler Murray would benefit from getting rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. more involved, which should happen this week against the Rams’ banged-up secondary. I’ll be intrigued to see where Harrison’s props open later this week.
I don’t feel the need to pull the trigger on this game early in the week, and I’ll monitor the Rams’ injury report to get a better idea of the team’s availability.
Verdict: Pass, monitor Rams’ injury report
Bears vs. Texans
The Bears made a miraculous 17-point comeback to beat the Titans last week, but make no mistake — Caleb Williams had a dreadful debut. The rookie passer averaged 3.2 yards per attempt in Week 1, the lowest of all 32 starters. Chicago generated 148 yards of offense and was 2-for-13 on third downs.
Chicago’s defense looked excellent in Week 1, especially at linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. Jaylon Johnson had the best PFF coverage grade of any cornerback in Week 1, but his life gets much more challenging this week against Nico Collins, who torched the Colts for 117 yards last week.
C.J. Stroud will put all kinds of pressure on the secondary, but he continues to be overdue for an interception. He had three turnover-worthy plays and no interceptions in Week 1 after 18 turnover-worthy plays with just five picks last season. That’s a 24% conversion rate of turnover-worthy plays to interceptions, if you’re keeping track at home.
I don’t have a strong take yet on the side or total in this game, but I will be very interested in Keenan Allen’s props. Allen led the NFL with a 42% target per route run rate in Week 1 and was close to connecting with Williams on some big-time plays. I expect them to sync up more as the year progresses, and with the Texans running the second-highest rate of two-high safeties last week, that provides opportunities for easier completions underneath.
Verdict: Pass
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Leans
Buccaneers vs. Lions
The Buccaneers started the season with a win, but their secondary is in rough shape due to injuries. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. will miss a couple of weeks with an ankle/foot sprain, while cornerbacks Zyon McCollum, Josh Hayes and Bryce Hall (confirmed out) are all on the injury report. The defensive line could also be without Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey this week after they missed Week 1.
That’s terrible news against Jared Goff and the Lions, who should come out firing on all cylinders after an underwhelming offensive showing in Week 1. Detroit ranked second in the league in adjusted line yards in Week 1, per FTN, and should bully a Tampa defensive line that ranked 26th in the same metric against the Commanders.
Detroit’s revamped secondary should also provide a considerable advantage here as Carlton Davis (former Bucs corner), Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson give the Lions far more answers for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin than they had in their postseason matchup.
Depending on how the injury reports progress, I could be swayed into laying the points with the Lions, but I’m holding off for now. I do love Detroit as a teaser piece this week — with a 6-point teaser; you can get the Lions down to -1 and pair it with another team.
Verdict: Lean Lions -7, Bet Lions -1 in a 6-Point Teaser
49ers vs. Vikings
No CMC, no problem? Jordan Mason was lights out in his first game as the starting running back for San Francisco, rushing for 147 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries (5.3 YPC). He helped the 49ers control time of possession, keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field and securing a home win to open the season.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold was one of the heroes of Week 1, finishing second in EPA+CPOE and starting the game with a 12-12 completion rate. The Kevin O’Connell offense is incredibly quarterback-friendly, and Darnold is in the best situation of his career with excellent weapons in Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones to rely on.
The 49ers are on the road on a short week here, and I can’t help but be enticed by the home underdog. I’ll wait to see if this line hits 7, but I’m leaning toward taking the points with Minnesota at home.
Verdict: Lean Vikings +6.5
Falcons vs. Eagles
Kirk Cousins' Falcons debut didn't go well, and the team’s play-calling was a red herring that he’s not yet healthy. According to ESPN Stats and Info, the Falcons were in pistol or shotgun on 96% of their snaps in Week 1. They had zero designed runs out of 22 shotgun snaps and an 81% run rate out of 26 pistol snaps. In other words, they told the defense precisely what they were doing before every snap.
The Falcons ran out of the pistol on 52% of plays, and Cousins, who had never taken more than 10 pistol snaps in a game in his career, predictably struggled. He finished 2-for-4 for 15 yards and an interception on those plays. Cousins has been one of the best play-action quarterbacks over the past few years, and play-action is a staple of the Sean McVay offense, which Zac Robinson is supposedly bringing to Atlanta. And yet, the Falcons didn’t call a single play-action pass.
Cousins looked immobile and unwilling to put any weight on his plant foot, which he tore his Achilles in. Either he’s not fully healthy yet — the logical explanation — or Robinson is simply a lousy play-caller. The former is far more conceivable, and while head coach Raheem Morris said Cousins was just shaking off some rust, it’s hard to be confident in him right now.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts flashed some impressive upside running the Kellen Moore offense. The Eagles utilized motion on 48 of their 73 plays (65.8%), their highest mark in a game since 2020. Last season, they used motion at the lowest rate league-wide (35.1%), per Next Gen Stats. With motion, Hurts completed 15-of-21 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns last week. He completed 5-of-13 passes for 66 yards and two interceptions without it.
Still, Hurts had four turnover-worthy plays, and I need to see a clean game from him before I can trust him to lay a touchdown in this spot. Saquon Barkley had a massive Week 1 game, but it came on a slippery international turf where defenders couldn’t find their footing, and I expect the Falcons’ defense to be much more gap alignment sound.
I’m intrigued by the under in this game with Cousins’ limitations, and I’m bullish on the Atlanta defense after adding Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. The under is 108-55-1 (66%) in games where both teams are on 8+ days of rest since 2018, and primetime unders are 178-121-3 (60%) since 2019, according to Evan Abrams.
Verdict: Lean Under 47
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Week 2 Picks
Raiders vs. Ravens
Lamar Jackson took a ton of hits last Thursday against the Chiefs as he ran the ball 16 times. The Ravens’ receivers couldn’t separate downfield, and the new-look offensive line showed some real holes with three new starters. It’s no surprise Jackson is dealing with soreness this week, and while his status isn’t in doubt, I expect a much more conservative game plan to keep him healthy.
That offensive line could have some issues holding up against what looks like an excellent Raiders’ defensive line led by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. I expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry in this game, with a much more positive game script, which will help keep the clock rolling.
Speaking of conservative game plans, hello, Antonio Pierce! The Raiders’ offense was horrifying in Week 1, finishing with a 29% early down success rate that would have ranked last in the NFL last season. Gardner Minshew had an aDOT of 4.7 yards that ranked last on the week, and Las Vegas had one of the most cowardly punts in recent memory to allow the Chargers to salt the game away late.
The Raiders would be the side here, if any, but it’s difficult for me to back them as an underdog when we can’t even trust Pierce to hold up his end of the bargain. As a big 'dog, the Raiders need to increase the variance by going for it on fourth down and taking other risks, but nothing from Pierce’s tenure as a head coach suggests he’s willing to do that.
I will take the under at 41.5, however. Over the past decade, 7.2% of games have finished with 40 or 41 points, so we’re sitting above some key numbers, and I anticipate this total continuing to drop leading up to game time. With the Ravens relying on Henry and their elite defense on Sunday, I expect a low total of points.
Verdict: Bet Under 41.5 Points
Jets vs. Titans
The Jets’ debut did not go according to plan, and the biggest issue was their defense’s inability to get off the field. The 49ers had nearly 39 minutes of possession and ran 70 offensive plays, and despite missing Christian McCaffrey, they were seemingly never in third-and-long situations. On the heels of that exhausting defensive game, in which multiple players left with injuries, the Jets have a second straight road game on a short week in humidity and rain in Tennessee.
According to Evan Abrams, teams to hold 25 minutes of possession or less in Week 1 are just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game. That trend tracks, as we often see tired legs on defenses that spent too much time on the field while working back into game shape.
The Titans overhauled their defense over the offseason, and it paid immediate dividends. They held the Bears to a paltry 2.8 yards per play. Dennard Wilson had his group playing cohesive, organized football from the start. Aaron Rodgers was excellent in Week 1, with an 84.4 PFF passing grade that ranked fourth on the week, but Nathaniel Hackett’s play-calling left a lot to be desired.
Will Levis was horrid last week and gave the game away with a meme-worthy pick-six. He finished with a painfully bad 29.9 PFF passing grade in the game, and the left side of the line with JC Latham and Peter Skoronski had real issues in pass protection, surrendering 10 pressures in the game. Still, the Jets’ pass rush was underwhelming in Week 1, and they need to resolve Haason Reddick’s contract situation badly.
The Titans will be able to run the ball in this game after backup running back Jordan Mason tore through the Jets’ front seven last week. Tony Pollard finally looks healthy and averaged 4.44 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked fourth in the NFL last week. Expect him to have a huge role to play here.
According to Evan Abrams, teams that blew a 10+ point lead in Week 1 are 29-17 SU and 28-17-1 ATS (62%) since 1990. This spread was available at +4.5 at open and got bought down to 3.5. You can wait to see if the +4 comes back, but I’m fine with anything over a field goal here, and I’ll buy the ugly home 'dog.
Verdict: Bet Titans +3.5
Browns vs. Jaguars
Cleveland hired new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to coax better play out of Deshaun Watson, which went horribly in Week 1. Watson had a 36.9% passing success rate, which ranked only better than Daniel Jones. It was the same as last year when he was 35th out of 41 qualified passers in passing success rate. Watson was 0-for-10 on passes of 15+ yards downfield, the worst of any quarterback since 2006 when air yards were first tracked.
At halftime, the Browns' offense had 54 yards and one first down. Moving forward, my biggest concern is that this offense has wholly abandoned its two-tight end sets. Since Kevin Stefanski became the Cleveland head coach in 2020, the Browns rank fifth in EPA per pass out of 12 personnel and 25th out of 11 personnel. However, Watson is more comfortable in a spread offense, so Stefanski has been forced to abandon his bread and butter — the Browns were in 12 personnel on just three of Watson’s 56 dropbacks in Week 1.
Pay attention to the practice reports for Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr., who both missed the game last week. Watson was under pressure on 42.9% of his dropbacks, and the Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker duo could wreak havoc in this game.
That philosophical shift isn’t changing anytime soon, especially with tight end David Njoku expected to miss some time with an ankle injury. I expect Ryan Nielsen’s Jaguars defense to be fully prepared for this matchup after holding the Dolphins to a 29.4% success rate through the first three quarters last week, which ranked 24th in the NFL.
Offensively, a healthy Trevor Lawrence makes a massive difference for Jacksonville, and he made some impressive throws on Sunday. I was very disappointed by the team turtling over the second half of the game and attempting to sit on its lead, but they had a chance to put the game on ice before Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal-line.
That blown 14-point lead puts the Jaguars in a great spot this week regarding trends. According to Evan Abrams, teams to blow a 10+ point lead in Week 1 are 29-17 SU and 28-17-1 ATS (62%) since 1990. With the better quarterback and an ascending defense under first-year coordinator Nielsen, I’ll back the Jaguars at home with the flat 3.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars -3
Colts vs. Packers
I bet you didn’t think it could get grosser than betting on Will Levis this Sunday. Well, I’m also betting on Malik Willis in his Packers debut. The line in this game has cratered after Jordan Love’s MCL injury. It was Packers -4.5 on the look-ahead last week, and with Willis expected to start, it’s now -3.5 for the Colts. That’s a massive 8-point swing, and I’m betting on the value with Green Bay.
Willis arrived in Green Bay just a couple of weeks ago and will not know the entire playbook, but I expect the Packers to lean heavily on the run game. The Colts’ run defense got gashed by the Texans in Week 1, with a ghastly 6.3 adjusted line yards, the highest on the week by far. Expect creative play-calling from Matt LaFleur to leverage the team’s run game led by Josh Jacobs.
Anthony Richardson had otherworldly throws in Week 1 and finished with an outrageous 16.4-yard aDOT in the game. However, if you remove his three 50+ yard completions, he went just 6-for-16 for 41 yards at 2.6 yards per attempt. That’s why he ranked just 19th in EPA+CPOE on the week, and it’s difficult to operate an NFL offense in that fashion consistently.
Richardson’s inability to lead sustained drives and the Colts’ inability to stop the run led to the Texans’ offense being on the field for 40 minutes of game time. Teams to hold 25 minutes of possession or less in Week 1 are just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game, according to Evan Abrams, and we could see some tired legs on the Colts’ defense.
Matt LaFleur is 14-3 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points since taking over as the Packers’ head coach in 2019, and he’s 3-0 ATS at home in those spots. Yes, all of those were with Love or Aaron Rodgers. However, I trust LaFleur to piece together enough offense to cover the number here, especially with a two-day rest advantage over the Colts.
Verdict: Bet Packers +3.5
Steelers vs. Broncos
One of my first bets this week was the under in this game between the Steelers and Broncos. Rookie Bo Nix made his debut for Denver last week, and it was underwhelming. He averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt on 42 passes, tied for the sixth-lowest YPA in any game with at least 40 pass attempts since the NFL-AFL merger. He was pressured on 45% of dropbacks and completed just 2-of-11 passes of 10+ yards downfield with three turnover-worthy plays.
Things don’t get any easier this week for Nix against a Steelers defense that held Kirk Cousins to 6.0 yards per attempt last week. Expect Sean Payton to continue utilizing a highly conservative offensive scheme for his young quarterback, leading to plenty of third-and-long situations against T.J. Watt and company.
Justin Fields had a solid debut for the Steelers, and I’m bullish about his long-term trajectory in Arthur Smith's offense, but this is not a team built to hang big numbers on the scoreboard. I expect Vance Joseph to employ some creative blitzes to keep Fields off balance, and the Broncos ranked fourth in the NFL in pass-rush win rate in Week 1, led by a standout performance by potential breakout edge Jonathon Cooper.
According to Evan Abrams, Broncos home games are 16-10 (61.5%) to the under in the past four years and 47-29-1 (61.8%) since 2015. Additionally, totals of 40 or less are 46-21-3 (70%) to the under in Week 2. Mike Tomlin road unders hit at a 67% clip in his career, making him the most profitable road under coach in the Action Network database.
Finally, according to Brandon Anderson's research, games set at 37 or below are 34-12-1 to the under (74%) since November 2019. None of those games fell exactly on 37, so while that's a key number, the data says we can still bet this under even at 36.5.
It looks like the spread in this game is trending toward -2.5 for the Steelers, and I'll be in on the Broncos as a teaser piece this week, taking them up from +2.5 to +8.5 as a home 'dog.
Verdict: Bet Under 36.5, use Broncos as a teaser piece
Bengals vs. Chiefs
The Bengals and Chiefs were on opposite ends of the spectrum in Nick Giffen’s luck rankings for Week 1. Kansas City ranked second thanks to an Isaiah Likely toenail hitting the white sideline in the end zone, while Cincinnati ranked 24th thanks to two lost fumbles. One came on a near touchdown throw on the goal line, and the other came on a muffed punt that set the Patriots up in field goal range. The Bengals also failed to convert a 4th and 2 on the Patriots’ 36-yard line.
That all sets up a wonderful buy-low, sell-high spot if you have the stomach to back the Bengals off that horrific loss. I rewatched every Joe Burrow dropback from Week 1, and the most significant issue to me was a lack of timing with his internal clock. Anticipation and poise have been two of his calling card traits in the NFL, and I don’t expect those issues to persist. His wrist injury did not appear to impact his downfield passing.
The Chiefs have the rest advantage and could get Marquise Brown back on the field. The infusion of speed with Brown and Xavier Worthy makes their offense that much more difficult to defend. However, Cincinnati’s secondary should be much improved by adding safeties Geno Stone and Vonn Bell. I also believe former first-round pick Dax Hill is poised for a breakout season at corner after being miscast as a free safety last year.
Ultimately, this is a prime buy-low spot as the sky is falling in Cincinnati after the ugly Week 1 loss. Joe Burrow is 17-8 ATS as an underdog (68%) and 15-2 ATS (88%) as a 'dog of 3+ points in the NFL. I’ll back him in this spot every time and live with the results.
Verdict: Bet Bengals +6
Click here to return to the table of contents.
