NFL Odds & Picks
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Head coach Sean McVay has been pretty transparent about his running backs, which made Cam Akers an easy fade entering the season. So it makes sense to listen to McVay when he says that he is impressed with Akers — so much so that he hinted at a split workload with Darrell Henderson this week.
Even if Henderson is still the lead dog, there are a lot of outs here. The Rams are double-digit favorites and if they end up blowing out the Falcons, Henderson is unlikely to be left in to grind carries in the fourth quarter. And then there’s the fact that even with an 82% snap rate last week, Henderson still finished with just 13 carries.
In 22 career starts, Henderson has been under 14.5 carries 64% of the time.
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I’m running this back after Josh Jacobs caught one pass against the Chargers.
As I mentioned last week, Jacobs was never one to play a big part in the Raiders’ passing game, averaging 1.5 receptions per game in 2019 and 2.2 in '20 before spiking to 3.6 last season. That uptick was likely due to receiving backs Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard missing a combined 12 games.
New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels doesn’t ask his RB1 to play a major role in the passing game. In the last decade, not one McDaniels RB1 averaged more than 1.2 receptions per game, and nine of 10 averaged under 1.0. The trend continued in Week 1, with Jacobs seeing one target on 35 offensive snaps.
Jacobs averages 7.1 yards per catch in his career, so he could catch two passes and still hit the under on his yardage prop.
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Brandin Cooks’ line is high because he has been productive as the Texans’ main receiving threat, but there aren’t many matchups tougher than this.
Per Football Outsiders, the Broncos held opposing No. 1 wide receivers to 54.8 schedule-adjusted yards per game in 2021, which was the fifth fewest. In Week 1, with a new defensive coordinator and all, Denver picked up right where it left off by holding DK Metcalf to just 36 yards on seven targets.
The main reason Denver’s defense is able to be so stingy is second-year corner Patrick Surtain II. Last season, Surtain allowed a completion rate of 57.6% and just 6.6 yards per target, according to PFF. In Week 1, he shadowed Metcalf on almost every snap and was in coverage on all but one of Metcalf’s targets.
I expect Cooks to get similar treatment and see similar results.
FanDuel Quickslip: Cooks Under 63.5 Receiving Yards
