As the Anytime Touchdown Specialist here at Action Network, I’ll be betting TD props for every primetime game of the 2022 NFL season and sharing my analysis on how I’m approaching each pick.
For the non-primetime NFL games on Sundays at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET, make sure to watch “The Touchdown Show,” which is co-hosted with Dr. Nick Giffen and airs every Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET on the Action Network YouTube channel. You can get my top TD picks of the week.
Most importantly, download the Action Network App to get all my touchdown picks in one place and as soon as I bet them at my sportsbook.
Jaylen Waddle
+210 ATD (FanDuel)
Waddle continues to be disrespected in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer world. He was +160 in Week 1 and has shot up for Week 2.
The second-year man had a 42-yard touchdown last week against the Patriots and has been a target machine since entering the NFL. He had 15 red-zone targets last season, and all of his TDs were within the 20.
Baltimore’s secondary is decimated. Kyle Fuller is out for the season, while Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Brandon Stephens all missed practice this week.
I see Tyreek Hill drawing all the attention here, which will allow Waddle to find pay dirt.
Jarvis Landry
+250 ATD (FanDuel)
Michael Thomas got most of the shine in Week 1, but Landry did most of the heavy lifting with seven catches on nine targets for 114 yards, including a key grab to set up a game-winning field goal.
Alvin Kamara is banged up. Even if he plays, the Saints may rely more on the passing game.
Landry’s TD odds last week were +190, and I think this jump may be an overreaction to the Buccaneers shutting down the Cowboys.
David Njoku
+350 ATD (FanDuel)
I generally haven’t fallen for the hype on Njoku, but this odds swing is a bit too much of an overreaction. He went from +250 to Week 1 to +350 here.
This week, he gets the Jets and not the Panthers. It’s a huge downgrade in terms of the opponent’s ability to stop opposing tight ends. Last season, New York allowed eight touchdowns to TEs while ranking in the bottom 10 in both receptions and yards given up to the position.
Njoku only saw one target last week, but he still played 89% of all Browns
snaps.
Ashton Dulin
+400 ATD (bet365)
The Colts will be without Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce this week, which elevates Dulin into a big role. He played 32% of snaps last week as Indianapolis’ WR4.
Dulin actually had two red-zone targets last week against the Texans. He had six total targets and three receptions. Speaking of last week, Jacksonville let Carson Wentz have his way in Week 1, with four passing touchdowns and at least five receivers registering 20 yards.
Harris Campbell is less than +200 at some spots, and Dulin is around +230 at most books. The best number is bet365, as of Saturday night.
Trey Lance
2 TDs (+1200, bet365)
Lance had 13 rushing attempts in Week 1, including three in the red zone. The conditions at Soldier Field didn’t lend itself to steady footing and rushing success, though.
The Seahawks were abused on the ground on Monday night against the Broncos and last season, when they gave up 18 rushing TDs.
No Elijah Mitchell or likely George Kittle means there are fewer options for Lance to deliver dump-off passes. That means he’s more likely to potentially run.
Part of this play is to get ahead of the market. If he scores once this week, this number will be +700 in Week 3. For comparison, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are all +700 or lower to score twice. That makes this a good value bet on Lance.
