While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor.
New NFL player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the Anytime Touchdown specialist with Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all NFL player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include player prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite NFL player prop picks on Fridays. In Week 1, I went 2-1 for +1.6 units, which is a great start. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43 wins, 25 losses for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week, you’d have made profit in 17 of 22 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action App.
Here we go for Week 2!
NFL Week 2 Player Prop Picks
Jalen Hurts
Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
We nailed this one in Week 1 when we took over 47.5 for Hurts, and we’re going right back to it.
Hurts’ rushing yards was one of my go-to prop bets last season. He reached 50 yards or more in eight of 15 games last season and is coming off a 17-carry, 91-yard game in Week 1 against Detroit this season. In 2021, Hurts had a six-game stretch of averaging 56.4 rushing yards per game from Weeks 7-12.
The Vikings defense isn’t as dumpster-worthy as the Lions, but the defensive stats are a bit misleading from Week 1, when Minnesota held the Packers to 118 yards on the ground. Green Bay was trailing most of the game and abandoned the run in the second half.
The Eagles likely won’t stop running the ball under any circumstances. Philly put up 181 yards rushing on nearly 6.5 yards per carry in Week 1 behind a dominant offensive line.
This rushing prop number is a bit higher than we were used to getting during the 2021 season, when we would get it in the low 40s. As long as it’s below 50 yards, I’m going to keep riding it.
Albert Okwuegbunam
Over 3.5 Receptions
Thankfully, I’m writing about Albert Okwuegbunam instead of trying to pronounce it on video. Even spelling it took me three tries. What isn’t difficult though is seeing why Broncos QB Russell Wilson likes Big Al as a target.
The 6-foot-5, 250-pounder led all Denver tight ends in snaps, targets and receptions in Week 1 against the Seahawks, and I expect that to continue. Although the Broncos have two decent running backs, they’re likely going to be a passing offense with Wilson now at QB. Wilson threw the ball 42 times in Week 1 while only handing the ball off 19 times. Some of that was game-script and some by necessity, but it’s not an outlier when you consider his recent track record.
Last season, Gerald Everett was TE1 in Seattle and when Wilson returned from the finger injury, Everett had four or more catches in six of the Seahawks’ final nine games of the season.
Another factor for Big Al is he’s not competing with TE Noah Fant anymore for snaps and routes. Last season, Okwuegbunam never topped 40 snaps in a game. Last week, he had 44 while also getting six targets. The most he had in any game last season was five. Broncos holdovers like Andrew Beck and Eric Tomlinson may have gotten a couple looks early but neither were targeted in the second half of Week 1.
The Texans don’t have a world-beating defense, despite how poor they made the Colts look in Week 1. At these odds, I’ll take my chances that Okwuegbunam is featured even more in Week 2.
Daniel Jones
To Throw an Interception
Seven QBs have plus odds to throw an INT in Week 2, including Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen.
There’s one name that I believe does not belong on this list, and that’s Giants QB Daniel Jones.
The fourth-year quarterback is known for turnovers and has 30 interceptions in 39 career games. He also has a tendency to save his ineptness for MetLife Stadium. Of those 30 interceptions, 19 were thrown at home over a 19-game sample size..
In Week 1, Jones had -115 odds to throw an interception vs the Titans. I didn’t pull the trigger on it since it seemed like a fair price. Jones proceeded to make one of the most bone-headed throws you’d ever see in Tennessee territory that had head coach Brian Daboll losing his mind.
Banking on the incompetence of quarterbacks is a guilty pleasure of mine, and I’m happy to indulge in this prop again if books are going to give me at plus-money.
