If you’ve been kickin’ it with Dr. Nick so far this 2022 NFL season, chances are it’s been going well.
Last week we went 2-1, and are off to a 1-0 start in Week 2 after Dustin Hopkins went under 7.5 kicking points on Thursday night.
Let’s keep things rolling with three more kicking picks for Week 2.
Greg Zuerlein
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made
The Jets had the second-highest rate of two-point-conversion attempts last season under Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur at 25%.
The Jets are likely to be playing from behind in this game, which increases their chances of going for two instead of the extra point if/when they score touchdowns. New York’s implied team total is the third lowest on the slate at just 16.5
Even if they try the point after, Zuerlein is only 88.2% on extra points since 2020, which is 5% below the NFL average during that span.
I project Zuerlein for 1.42 extra-point attempts, so there’s a 60.4% chance he goes under 1.5 XPs made.
The best odds on this bet can be found at BetMGM, where it's -120. I’d bet this down to -125.
Matt Gay
Over 2.5 Extra Points Made
The Rams have the fourth-highest implied team total of the week at 28.25 against the Falcons.
Los Angeles had the fifth-lowest rate of two-point attempts last season at 5.8% compared to 10.8%. The Rams are also 10-point favorites, so they’re unlikely to be in a situation where they need to go for two.
I’m projecting Gay for 3.1 extra-point attempts. I project this over to hit at a 58.7% rate, which equates to -142 value.
The best odds for Gay are -110 at BetMGM. I would bet this to -115.
Daniel Carlson
Over 6.5 Kicking Points
The Raiders have an even higher implied team total this week than the Rams, ranking second in the league at 28.5.
Last week, even on one leg for part of the game, Harrison Butker dropped seven points in Week 1 against the Cardinals. Kansas City racked up 488 yards of offense in that blowout win.
This week, I’m projecting the Raiders for just more than two field-goal attempts and three extra-point attempts.
My model has this going over 6.5 at 63.6% of the time with a fair value of -175.
The best odds for Carlson are at bet365 (-135) and DraftKings (-140). I’d bet Carlson to go over his total up to -150.
