Another NFL Sunday is upon us, and the best way to enjoy Red Zone is by supplementing Scott Hanson with PrizePicks.
PrizePicks allows you to pair together and wager real cash on NFL player props in 27 states.
Let’s dive into my favorite PrizePicks props for Week 2’s main slate.
Michael Thomas
Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
This line is too high.
When Michael Thomas is playing, he’s one of the best receivers in the NFL. But, as we know, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field in recent years. His return to football has been inconsistent, as has his play.
Thomas managed 57 yards on five receptions (eight targets) with two touchdowns in Week 1, but that was against Atlanta’s talented-but-inexperienced secondary. This will be a different beast for him.
Tampa Bay has a superior secondary and is coming off a season in which it finished 11th in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers. It's worth noting the Bucs held Ceedee Lamb to just 29 yards last week.
That’s another big thing: Thomas is not the top option in New Orleans anymore. Jarvis Landry is getting all the love from Jameis Winston and will likely see more targets again this week.
Remember that Thomas has failed to reach this number in seven of his last 10 games. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Thomas for just 50.5 receiving yards, giving us plenty of value to fade him.
Pick: Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
Saquon Barkley
Under 18 Rush Attempts
Saquon Barkley had 18 carries in Week 1 as the Titans continuously gave the game away. Barkley took advantage of those carries, racking up a Week 1-high 164 rushing yards.
But that’s a huge number of rushes for Barkley. He managed 18-plus carries just once in 13 starts last season, averaging 12.5. He bounced back by averaging 16 carries in his last five games, but that still falls short of this number.
The Action Labs Player Props tool projects Barkley for 16 rushes, giving us good value on the under.
I’m a little worried about Carolina’s defense, which allowed 22 carries to Nick Chubb and 11 to Kareem Hunt last week. But the Browns can’t do anything but run the ball right now considering they’re relying on a backup quarterback.
The Panthers' rush defense was great last season, posting top-10 marks in both rush EPA per play allowed and rush Success Rate allowed. Week 1 was an aberration, Barkley won’t see as many carries in Week 2.
Pick: Under 18 Rush Attempts
Najee Harris
Over 13.5 Rush Attempts
This Patriots–Steelers game is going to be a rush-fest. Both teams want to establish the run and pound the rock. We might see 50 rush attempts by both teams in this rock fight.
But while Damien Harris has to compete for carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris doesn’t really have backfield competition.
Intriguingly, Harris failed to cash this number in Week 1 against the Bengals despite overtime, partly due to the fact he was forced out of the game in the fourth quarter with a foot injury. But Harris, who is good to go for Week 2, cashed this number in 12 of his prior 18 games, and our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for 16 carries.
I’m high on Harris because of the Patriots' pass rush. New England produced a ridiculous 42% pressure rate against Miami in Week 1, and Mitch Trubisky won’t get the ball out as quickly as Tua Tagovailoa can.
Instead, Mike Tomlin will rely on Harris and the Pittsburgh ground game after the Patriots finished 20th in rush Success Rate allowed in Week 1.
Pick: Over 13.5 Rush Attempts
