NFL Week 2 Player Props: 7 Sunday Picks for Jaylen Waddle, Christian McCaffrey, Trey Lance, More

Jaylen Waddle
Under 5.5 Receptions (-120)

Waddle’s role within the Dolphins offense has changed in 2022 following the Tyreek Hill addition. We already knew his target share was going to take a hit, but his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) has risen from 6.8 to 9.5 so far after one game.

If this trend continues, which I think it will, we should expect Waddle’s 74% catch rate from last season to drop into the 66-70% range this year. When it comes to his yardage production, it’ll likely all come out as a wash for Waddle, but his average receptions per game could take a hit as a result.

Therefore, I’m seeing some slight value in his Under 5.5 receptions here and have him finishing under this 60% of the time. I would only bet it at -120.

T.J. Hockenson
Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hockenson has elite underlying usage, but he may need 5+ receptions to clear this number given his 6.0 aDOT. DeAndre Swift only saw three targets last week, which will only go up (likely at Hockenson’s expense). Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark will continue to command targets.

The Lions also had the second-highest rush rate on early downs (in a neutral game script).

I project this number closer to 39.5.

Christian McCaffrey
Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

The Panthers threw on early downs at a league-high rate in Week 1. I expect that trend to continue against a Giants pass-funnel defense.

It'll be tough for McCaffrey to find room to run behind his offensive line and against a Giants defensive front that limited Derrick Henry to 82 yards on 21 carries in Week 1. I expect the Panthers to produce dump-off passes to McCaffrey that will essentially be an extension of their rushing attack.

I'm projecting CMC's median closer to 59.5 yards.

Ashton Dulin
Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

With both Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce set to miss this game, I'm expecting Dulin to run a route on about 85% of Matt Ryan's dropbacks.

Dulin profiles as a down-field threat who has a wide range of outcomes. Consider he should be a lock for a ton of playing time, though, I like him to hit the over here.

The Colts are facing a Jaguars defense that allowed the fourth-highest average yards per attempt on passes 20 or more yards down the field last season. Jacksonville also gave up the second-most yards downfield in Week 1.

I'm projected this closer to 41.5. Dulin is the type of receiver to attack in the alternate markets since he has a higher ceiling.

DeVante Parker
Over 2.5 Receptions (-122)

Parker ran a route on 100% of Mac Jones' dropbacks in Week 1, but he was targeted just twice.

I'm not expecting Parker to put up Davante Adams-like numbers, but I think this prop is too low since he should be on the field for nearly every single Patriots passing attempt. I expect Jones to target his new receiver more this week.

I'd say a fair line for this prop would be closer to -170.

Trey Lance
Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Lance ran 13 times for 54 yards in Week 1, thanks in large part to heavy rain at Soldier Field.

Well, there's potential rain in the forecast for Sunday in Santa Clara, Calif., as well.

The 49ers are 9-point favorites this week, so we could see them implement a conservative game plan for Lance with more designed runs. Plus, the odds of him getting a couple kneel downs in the victory formation are quite high, and those count.

I'm projecting Lance for closer to 10 rushing attempts in this one.

Josh Jacobs
Under 2.5 Receptions (-105)

Jacobs had just one receptions last week against the Chargers, despite the fact Las Vegas was trailing most of the game.

This week, the Raiders are 5-point favorites, and I expect Ameer Abdullah to replace Brandon Bolden (doubtful) as their main pass-catching RB.

I'm projections Jacobs for closer to two receptions, with a 65% chance he stays under this total.

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