Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 113-61-5 (64.5%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Starting after Weeks 3 and 4, we'll also add in luck totals. For now, there are four luck-based matchups to take a look at for Week 2.
Week 2 Luck Trends
While we do have the three criteria for a luck-based matchup, we do want to analyze weekly trends because we only have one game of data for each team. That also means the luck% differences — what we call the Luck Gap — are typically at or near their largest values of the season.
Unlucky teams meeting just the second criteria (at least 50% Luck Gap) are 23-17-2 (57.1%) ATS in Week 2. However, if the unlucky team is also on the road, they are 14-7-1 (65.9%) ATS, while unlucky teams at home that meet just the second criteria are only 9-10-1 (47.5%) ATS.
The magnitude of the Luck Gap also matters. If the Luck Gap is at least 90%, unlucky teams are 10-3-2 (73.3%) ATS in Week 2, and the home/road splits go away (4-1-2 for road teams, 6-2-0 for home teams).
In other words, for large Luck Gaps, we can feel better about backing the unlucky team regardless of where they play. But for smaller Luck Gaps (sub 90%) ideally we'd target unlucky road teams.
However, the Luck Rankings are just one tool for your bag. That said, we grade all games that meet at least one of the three criteria at the top against closing lines as a Luck Ranking play for record-keeping purposes.
